As good a time as any to break out MS's preseason planning guide
Have used a spoiler tag because it's very wordy. Contains references to 2021 players options
- Spoiler:
Preseason
Arguably the most important part to the season. If you get things majorly wrong here you are finish and will be chasing your tail here. The most important things to consider here for me
- Eye test is the most important factor. If you are shit at rugby league you won't make my team pure and simple.
- Make sure you have atleast 2 captain options. You do not want to be copping sub par scores if your captain cops a 1 week injury
- Take the players that are the biggest value and guaranteed money makers regardless of position. This year that was your Watson/Brailey/Riki/Liddle/Laurie types. If fit, Turbo would have been in this category
- Points are important but you still want value. Here I would try to fill out with your under valued guns. This is where you want Matt's patented sub guns, that can make the jump to next tier of keeper. Generally you can only fit a few of these before cash runs out. I went with Munster and Moses, some went with Papy and Fifita
- Centres pick 2 cheap guys with job security and (hopefully) fantasy pedigree. Even the guns can put up single figure scores so I will never consider a gun centre in my starting team unless they are a starting second rower.
- WFB I try to go with 1 gun, 1 mid, 1 cow. Even the best of the best have a down week in this position and you can pick them up cheap. I never know who my 3 final WFBS will be until players start losing cash. Mid should be someone that has shown upside to go to the next level like Papy 2019 or Edwards 2018. Sometimes they stick and sometimes they don't. You don't want to be chasing your tail having 2 guys under 300k that you need to play while copping 20s
- Halves I like to take any rookies that are starting. Typically they are guaranteed 80 minutes, get a bit of kicking, bit of tackling and few attacking stats. Should be good for 30-40s making them very playable in your 17. For the guns I don't want other people to be able to bring them in, so I tend to go for high floor guys with good kick metre stats and good defensive stats. Goal kicking is a bonus used as a tie breaker. I tend to avoid running halves because they can be up and down which makes them likely cheaper later. Nothing worse than watching your gun drop 150k due to shit scores and everyone jump on board. I'll typically want one gun and one rookie in the halves so you aren't stuck with 2 guys getting 20s-30s if they don't pan out.
- Hooker has to have some sort of job security and I prefer to not pick someone that has a utility on the bench. 80 minute hookers are fantasy gold with even the shittest ones averaging in the high 30s. Will normally start with someone that has upside to turn into keeper based on previous starts/injury/form.
- Mids primarily score in the form of base stats, which are heavily tied to minutes. I’ll generally target 2-3 mid range guys I expect to get extra minutes. Starting on the bench makes sure you will not be in my team. The only exception to this rule would have been Watson this year due to how cheap he was combined with fantasy pedigree.
- Edge is one of the best place to make cash if there are cows. This year we lost most of the base price guys, but Milchy’s rule applies here with starters playing big minutes and mostly having a floor in the 30s. Great if you can grab a rookie price guy, or even under 300k.
- Bench is pretty much filled in with left over cash after the starters. Will try to prioritise rookie/value halves and hookers due to cash generation while not lacking in points. If there are no value halves/hookers I’ll try to grab the edge players for a playable floor and try scoring upside. Worst case scenario I’ll go to starting middles. I’d rather shit in my hands and clap then play a centre, winger or fullback here.
- Emergency I want to get atleast one DPP CTR/WFB, cheapest possible with upside here. 18th man I want to be playable in case of injuries/suspension so prefer one of the hookers/halves/edge/middle guys. Last 2 spots are filled with 2 cheapest guys I think will make cash. This year that was Simonsson and Reimis Smith, but probably should have gone with an extra MID for squad balance
- Cash left over is never more than 150k, but never less than 30k. Chances are you will need to pivot out of one of these options and will want a bit left over
Rounds 1-5
Before kick off every player in your team should have an expected role in their team. Maybe you think MID3 will pick up an extra 15 minutes due to someone retiring/leaving the club. Maybe you expect a senior half to take an increase in kicking. Maybe you expect someone to add 5-10 points in goal kicking to their score. Be realistic about what you think will happen as not everyone in your squad will be 10 points under-priced. In some places you have to settle for 5-6 points with a view to trade once they have made a bit of cash and things settle.
Round 1 the most important thing to watch for is the role you expected and the role they are actually playing. The single most important round to watch every game so you know what is happening with every team. If someone isn’t playing the role you expected get ready to turf them. Be on the look out for someone that has a break out role that could make them an under priced keeper, like Yeo moving from edge to middle. Round 1 is generally played under weird conditions with higher than average temperatures, quarterly breaks and weird rotations. The only reason I will trade after round 1 is long term injury or suspension . I would rather wait an extra week, miss 20-30k in cash on someone that looks good, rather than jump the gun and end up with someone like 2021 BSironen that needs to be traded out in the next 2 weeks. You can make back the 30k with smart decisions but you can’t get that trade back. Any guys that stood out go on the watch list for post round 2 trades.
Round 2 is similar to round 1, I’m looking for roles rather than scores. Guys that I had watch listed in round 1 are under the microscope to see how sustainable the role is. Guys from my starting team that aren’t getting the role I wanted after 2 weeks are dead weight to be moved on. By this time you should know how most teams are going to play this season so you can get on the fantasy relevant players.
With that in mind I'm going to run the ruler over my current draft with what role I expect and what impact this will have on fantasy scores. Note that will probably throw most of this out
Hooker: Randall - Long term injury to Brailey with his only real competition for the role being a reshuffle that sees Mann at 9. With the loss of Watson I think O'Brien will do whatever it takes to keep Mann at 13. Average of 44 in 66 minutes when starting priced at 28. Every serious team should have Randall
Mid: Structure for this year is 1 gun, 1 up and comer and 1 cheapie. Gun spot will be filled by 1 of Haas/Crichton/Ipap. Up and comer looks like Utoikamanu with cheapie currently Bullemor.
Haas - Over priced based on 2021 and under priced based on 2020. In a better Broncos team there will probably be less asked of him but more room for attacking stats and damaging runs close to the line. Scored 2 tries combined in the last 2 years with 4 in his break out 2019 season. I think he will probably score around where he is priced but decent option as a keeper in a tough position.
Ipap - Should be a locked in starter option this year where he averaged 65 making him a little under priced. Playing for a team that should be at the right end of the ladder and won't play origin.
Crichton - Proven over many years to be a 60 odd guy when starting in second row with potential to go 100+ on his day. Gets through a lot of work defensively and can pretty much lock him in for 120 metres per game. Average jumps a couple of points when Keary is fit
Utoikamanu - Had a great back end to the year averaging 55 as a starter from round 18 onwards. Damaging ball runner and has the footwork+speed to score tries from nothing. Expecting he takes the step up to be on the fringes of origin selection
Bullemor - This is more of an eye test pick. Should be the starting edge spot for Manly and make some cash. Even in 60 minutes per game he should be good for 35+
Edge: This spot will be 2 of Wade Graham, Fermor, Katoa or Martin as I look for value
Graham - Priced at 37 he has a long term second row average of 45. One bad tackle away from retirement but has the most secure spot.
Fermor - Another eye test guy that should take the leap to fringe rep player. Averages 40 in the second row priced at 36. Health competiton for his spot with Fifita and Proctor
Katoa - Priced at 34 with a second row average of 43. Should have the starting spot until Tohu returns. If I take him I'm hoping that is closer to round 10 than round 5
Martin – Plays in the best team of the lot but probably need an uptick in attacking stats. Averages 43 as a second rower priced at 40 is probably my least favourite option
Halves:
Cleary – Might be a bit over priced but I’m locking in the highest scorer in fantasy and captaining him. Don’t get cute here
Burton – Averages 60+ as a starting half priced at 48. Only had 125 kick metres per game last year so isn’t as hurt by the nerf. Centre DPP seals the deal as I think he is priced at his floor.
Centre: Plenty of options here but I’ll be backing talent in good teams
Tago – Another eye test guy. Deceptively strong through the hips makes him hard to tackle. Good right foot step to get on the outside of his man. Tends to carry the ball in his right arm and palm with the left which isn't ideal for a left centre since it means primarily palming across his body. Got enough pace to finish a try if he gets into space and soft enough with his hands to set up a support player. Not an athletic freak like a Stephen Crichton.
Pensini – Great talent in a strong attacking side. Good defender and gets involved coming out of trouble
Wing/fullback: Tried and tested strategy of going under priced gun and 2x cheapies with job security
Papy – Stats speak for themselves. Priced at 51 with a career fullback average of 57 and 2021 average of 70. One of the best value picks in the game
Crichton – Priced at 28 with a career centre average of 37. Had a down try scoring year last season but still managed to average 37 at centre
Paulo – Has never played centre in the top grade so hard to project his points. Priced at 26 playing in the centres for Souths should see an increase in tackles with attacking upside
Bench: Here I’m going for value with upside. Most of these guys shouldn’t lose cash with decent chance of making some cash
Sexton – One of the few to get a price discount for <10 games. Priced at 48 with an average of 60. Only kicked for 230 metres per game last year so shouldn’t be too hurt by the nerf. Playing next to Brimson I expect 330 kick metres to be his floor. Playing in a bottom 4 spine this could easily go horribly wrong and be a bottom 4 team.
Clune – While I’m not as high on him as some he is priced at 30 with a 35 career average at halfback in some very bad teams. Clifford probably takes most of the kicking but Clune has never really been dominant in that role
Nanai – A little concerned in his job security in a bottom 4 team. Priced at 28 but averages 33.5 as a starter in the second row with 13 missed tackles in 2 games which I expect to decrease. If he holds his spot should make money.
Amone – Priced below his lowest career score in his halves should make some money. Only risk to job security is not a concern with Sullivan injured as things would have to go horribly wrong for Mbye to end up in the halves
Emergency:
Illias – Starting as 18th man due to being a little worried about his upside. Still think he makes money but might not be a 200k+ cow
Coates – Outside back in a good team will catch lightning at some point. Doesn’t quite have the upside of 2021 Reimis Smith with a low floor. Think he scores closer to Saab than Addo-Carr
Jennings – Looks to be starting winger for a top 2 attacking team in the comp available at base price. Same as Coates for 90k less
4th spot – Currently Croker but rotated through 100 players in this spot. Will be looking for upside and job security from this spot
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