2016 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 6

Any thoughts on Russell Packer?

The Dragons' were criticised last year for lacking size and coach Paul McGregor has previously said he hoped Packer would add some starch to their forward pack. Captain Ben Creagh said Packer's impact was noticeable and predicted his size and go-forward were what the side had been missing for the last several seasons.
"He's an 120kg forward that we've needed for a couple of years now, he carts the ball up hard and he's pretty imposing as well," Creagh said.
"Him and Leeson (Ah Mau), Mike Cooper, Jack de Belin, it's gives us a good forward pack there." - Nzherald

But Barrett had been appointed for along time hadn't he? It just took a while before they actually announced it.

Packer is priced as per his 2013 stats with 0% discount.

If you think he has gotten better (or at least not stagnated) with 2 years out of the game then go for it. But historically he has not been a great fantasy performer.

Would need to consistently play over 40 minutes to be useful.

Was packer at the Warriors in 2013? Who were the props in the rotation? Matulino, Lillyman, Sam and Steve Rapira, Sione Lousi, he would have been bench prop at least and with a backrow of Mannering, Elijah Taylor etc he probably wouldn't have got much more than 35 minutes ever. I feel he is a lot fitter and will at least average 40 minutes and starting so should average around 30-35. Not bad for 211,000 probably slightly ahead of Blaw for me at the start because I reckon Lawrence he will get eased in.

Thanks for the feedback . Packer definitely looks like he's in good shape compared to a few years back...I guess I'll put this one on the watchlist, I think there are a few cheaper options available for a npr.

Warriors wrote:Was packer at the Warriors in 2013? Who were the props in the rotation? Matulino, Lillyman, Sam and Steve Rapira, Sione Lousi, he would have been bench prop at least and with a backrow of Mannering, Elijah Taylor etc he probably wouldn't have got much more than 35 minutes ever. I feel he is a lot fitter and will at least average 40 minutes and starting so should average around 30-35. Not bad for 211,000 probably slightly ahead of Blaw for me at the start because I reckon Lawrence he will get eased in.

With packer you pretty much just get run metres and tackles. I dont see him making many offloads tbs etc. So you'll be relying on him running for 100 metres and making 20 tackles.
I dont see him making much money or making money very quickly, a slow burner maybe.
But this is just my opinion on packer and i have no stats to back this up!

Which of these would you go with:

Packer & BLawrence (both reserves, Parcell & Taylor NPRs) or Grant & NPR (Grant & Parcell/Taylor as reserves).

Milchcow wrote:

In 2013 as an 80 minute 2nd rower in 18 games he averaged 41. Throw in the 2 golden point games he played and it jumps to over 43.
In 2014 as an 80 minute 2nd rower in 17 games he averaged 34.5
In 2015 as an 80 minute 2nd rower in 3 games he averaged 44.7

His average over the 3 seasons when playing 80 minutes is 39.5

Over those 38 games he has scored 5 tries. Certainly nothing out of the ordinary for a player in his position

He has a discount on his 2015 scores due to playing less than 10 games as well as an injury affected 20.
That takes his priced average down to 34, which is his 2014 average.


So worst case he doesn't make any money. But I can't see him losing any. And with the Knights pack the way it is he is going to be one of the go to guys in attack, so should see decent ball.

A 40 point averaging player for the price of a 34 average. What is not to like.

Just awesome

Packers history
2013 23.44 played 9 games ave 30min (was injured on 5 separate occasions this year) 0.78ppm
2012 26.67 played 24 games ave 41.75min (20 games as a starter, 4 games on the bench) 0.64ppm
2011 34.78 played 23 games ave 42.35min (18 games as a starter, 5 games on the bench) 0.82ppm
2010 35.55 (no recorded times)
2009 35.90 (no recorded times)
Packers only 27 y.o too
His last 3 years ppm is 0.75 so if he got 40 min (which I think is unlikely) he should score 30 points.
In the charity shield he score 29 points in 34 minutes. That was 1st half stats only and I don't think he played any of the 2nd half but I'm not sure.
He is currently priced at a 23.5 ave
But he won't be in my team

Milchy, can you find average mins and points for Keith Galloway when starting prop for tigers last year? He's obviously not in the spreadsheet as he's not playing nrl this season I guess, makes sense. Wanted to know as might give an idea for what grant might score if starting prop, I'd imagine he'd get similar mins.

I'm coming to the conclusion that it's pretty well impossible to get a good scoring 17th man if you run with Smith & another premium hooker (I have Lichaa) & a decent pack & Taylor will be that man. I'm pretty happy with my team atm but no doubt it will change many times.
Also I'm considering L. Brown as my 4th 2fr instead of Rochow as I think he will play 80 minutes in a much better team so I think he'll outscore Rochow. I know the risk with Brown but I'm confident in the fact that Lyon/Matai never get injured & go off. Matai gets a lot of injuries during a game but he seems to dust himself off & soldier on. Over the last couple of years I don't think he's ever missed a game through injury & in fact I think he played every game last year. The Panthers seemed to have a bunch of injury prone backs so that meant Brown was forever being shifted out to the backs but this isn't the case with Manly.

Speedball Deluxe wrote:Milchy, can you find average mins and points for Keith Galloway when starting prop for tigers last year? He's obviously not in the spreadsheet as he's not playing nrl this season I guess, makes sense. Wanted to know as might give an idea for what grant might score if starting prop, I'd imagine he'd get similar mins.

i just read a stat that in 2015 they avg'd almost identical for tackles/hit ups/mtrs gained per run.

though im sure galloway had much more mins to get those stats.

EDIT galloway 46, grant 35 i think

If Barba doesnt play fullback is anyone considering a really dirt cheap centre combo Copley, Avuaa, Gutherson?

PAPA GUISEPPE wrote:If Barba doesnt play fullback is anyone considering a really dirt cheap centre combo Copley, Avuaa, Gutherson?

It's definitely tempting but does have it's risks. Auva'a will go ok but Copley could score 20-25 & Gutherson will be on the wing so could get around the same as the Eels will probably focus their attack to the Jennings/Radradra edge. By the way this is why I'm considering Ma'u. But if it means getting a gun elsewhere with the extra 100k it could be worthwhile. The way I look at it if your centres score 25-30 then that's acceptable for the position & anything over 30 is a bonus.

Speedball Deluxe wrote:Milchy, can you find average mins and points for Keith Galloway when starting prop for tigers last year? He's obviously not in the spreadsheet as he's not playing nrl this season I guess, makes sense. Wanted to know as might give an idea for what grant might score if starting prop, I'd imagine he'd get similar mins.

Keefy averaged a touch over 45mins.

I'm contemplating running with Whitehead, I think he gets quite a few minutes and his attacking stats should be quite good. I think he does better than Sue who is around the same price.

Any real money games knocking around?

I'd happily pay for Milchow's buy-in in addition to my own for the amount of effort and stats work he puts in for us all.

White Lightning wrote:

It's definitely tempting but does have it's risks. Auva'a will go ok but Copley could score 20-25 & Gutherson will be on the wing so could get around the same as the Eels will probably focus their attack to the Jennings/Radradra edge. By the way this is why I'm considering Ma'u. But if it means getting a gun elsewhere with the extra 100k it could be worthwhile. The way I look at it if your centres score 25-30 then that's acceptable for the position & anything over 30 is a bonus.

I definitely want one "good" not Gun, but yes - otherwise filling up on those options with low mosh points expectation for Ava and Copley but high hopes for Gutherson

Honeysett wrote:I'm contemplating running with Whitehead, I think he gets quite a few minutes and his attacking stats should be quite good. I think he does better than Sue who is around the same price.

Agree definitely better option than Sue but our forward pack pretty stacked and I don't trust sticky, even with Fensom - let alone whitehead

Mann/Nightingale/Feldt or take a risk with J Burgess