NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 49 - Funtime Fifita

The Goat Boys wrote:Unfortunately like many others, have had terrible luck with centres.
I can bring in any centre and own peachey.
Who is the best choice?

Bird is probably next best option after Peachey

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Feel like I’m behind the 8 ball bringing in Fleg and Fog. They feel too cheap when others are grabbing some bigger guns

Fogarty's last 3 game average is 65 so he's up there with the guns

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Feel like I’m behind the 8 ball bringing in Fleg and Fog. They feel too cheap when others are grabbing some bigger guns

Fog is a great option. Tanah Boyd kicked for 24 metres last week. Sure, he could increase his role, but I think its more likely that Fog does all the kicking again, which only solidifies his base.

Fog has really only had the two low scores, and one was in a 36-0 loss. He does have the 7 in 50 mins but he was busted that game. I back him. FOG=GOD

bigdog777 wrote:Is everyone breaking the never trade a gun rule? I Have Fifita, Pap and Munster all out, but have 17 if Walker plays this round.

The 'rule' is more around if they have a poor score or two, or miss a week via suspension.

Bit different if they are going to miss 3 of the next 4 games. Of course, trades in hand comes into the equation..

Alright I think I’m set on trading out Ponga and Fifita,pretty sure one of the trade ins will be Moses. Not sure on the other though. I think I’ve narrowed it down to TPJ,Matterson or Turbo. Any of these options should allow me to bring in one of the others or even Koro for Stefano/Simpkin next week if they don’t look like getting back in the team. Which of these 3 should I prioritise?

Team is looking like this after 1 trade DiFi -> Matterson:

Brailey
Tohu Angus Watson
Lucy Schuster
Cleary Moses
Avo Kelly
Ted Laurie Pap

Fog Matterson Walker Walsh

Stefano Simpkin Leniu Roberts

21 trades 248k

Plan for next week is then Stefano -> Koro as long as he drops 14k.

I'd really like to save a trade, but is it worth going Leniu to Flegler in case Pap is out? The annoying thing is that by the time Storm trim to 19, all the cows I'm interested in (Fleg, CHN, Starling) have played.

At that point I'd probably be left with Stefano -> JFH/Peachy/Graham to field 17.

It's basically burn an extra trade just in case, or hold and gamble on playing 16?

I've had a revelation mid-lesson. Fleg looking like a better idea than Starling with less risk, but can definitely afford to wait a week on him. Can bring in Koro and Matto this round then Fleg for a Roberts/Leniu/Simpkin type next week.

ynot wrote:

Yeah, even the Roosters, you might want to wait a little bit on until they find their feet. Crichton/Olam might be the best bets under 500k. Now I'm talking myself into Waqa Blake.

And because I'm a loser, lets run the numbers on this.

On average since 2013, centres have scored about 20% of all tries, created 17% TA, 18% LB and 16% LBA.

Let us compare a Melbourne CTR (e.g. Olam) to a Broncos CTR (e.g. Farnsworth), assuming a team follows this average of which positions create attacking stats and they keep scoring at the same rate (of which neither is true, but hey).

The Storm are scoring about 5.9 tries a game currently, the Broncos are averaging 2.7 tries per game.

If we use the calculation: Average Tries Scored Per Game by Team * Average Percentage Of Tries Scored by Position / 2 (Two CTRs per Team) * 8 (Fantasy Points)

Subbing in the numbers:

Storm: 5.9 * 0.2 / 2 * 8 = 4.7
Broncos: 2.7 * 0.2 / 2 * 8 = 2.2

Difference = 2.5 points of base

You can probably safely add around 2.5 points to the base of Olam vs Farnsworth.

However, this doesn't include other attacking stats that are highly correlated with winning teams TA, LB and LBA.

If we rerun those formulas changing the amount of fantasy points to 5, 4, 2 we get:

Storm TA: 1.8
Broncos TA: 0.9
Difference: 0.9

Storm LB: 2.5
Broncos LB: 1.4
Difference: 1.1

Storm LBA: 0.9
Broncos LBA: 0.4
Difference: 0.5

So if we add that up, 0.9 + 1.1 + 0.5 = 2.5

Add that to our expected Try amount = 5

TL;DR: If you are picking a Storm CTR (Olam) over a Broncos CTR (Farnsworth) it's probably reasonable to add about 5 points to their base stats considering a teams average attacking output and that players average chance of creating that attacking output.

my tv broke wrote:

Fog is a great option. Tanah Boyd kicked for 24 metres last week. Sure, he could increase his role, but I think its more likely that Fog does all the kicking again, which only solidifies his base.

Fog has really only had the two low scores, and one was in a 36-0 loss. He does have the 7 in 50 mins but he was busted that game. I back him. FOG=GOD

Cheers lads.

Will spend the next 24 hours trying to figure out if Fleg is the best play or just get another gun

Tohu Harris
Lowest score this season: 61
Ownership:
TOP 100 - 71.00% TOP 1000 - 69.20% TOP 5000 - 61.66%

I didn't realize he was in so many teams

Thats quality analysis right there!

ytsb wrote:I've had a revelation mid-lesson. Fleg looking like a better idea than Starling with less risk, but can definitely afford to wait a week on him.

hmm.

Fleg is a risk imo. His form this season has been awful. He was decent in round 1 (as were most Broncos), then probably had his best game of the year last week, but in between that, he was lucky to be in the 17 in the last few weeks.

He could easily revert to round 2 to 8 form.

EDIT: not trying to say don't do it. I am also tempted. But i wouldnt call him a safe option.

ytsb wrote:I've had a revelation mid-lesson. Fleg looking like a better idea than Starling with less risk, but can definitely afford to wait a week on him. Can bring in Koro and Matto this round then Fleg for a Roberts/Leniu/Simpkin type next week.

I can see the "less risk" part, but not sure I'd say Flegler is a better idea?

White Lightning wrote:

Fogarty's last 3 game average is 65 so he's up there with the guns

Addo-Carr's 3 game average is even higher at 68. Doesn't necessarily mean he is up there with the guns.

But more seriously, if you want Fog don't be concerned that he is cheaper than Moses/DCE whoever you are worried about. Fog is cheap because he got injured and scored 7 a few weeks ago. Ignore that and his scoring is fine. he has a few low scores in him but pretty much anyone not named Cleary is similar.

bigdog777 wrote:Is everyone breaking the never trade a gun rule? I Have Fifita, Pap and Munster all out, but have 17 if Walker plays this round.

Was thinking of trading Niu and Utokimanu to Gamble and Peachey to avoid trading guns, but will I far too far behind without pulling the trigger? Currently would only have 8 for round 13 (9 if Simpkins somehow comes back/dont trade him before then)

Imo this 21 man fantasy model more or less makes it pretty hard to keep a player if he's out 2+ games whether it's a gun or not because before you know it you have 3-5 red dots. I would trade Munster & Fifita & load up on Peachey & another gun. Utoi & Niu may be useful & play in round 13 but if they don't you should have a fair amount of cash after selling Munster & Fifita to trade them to some more guns for round 13.

wolfking wrote:

Man, I'm finding it hard wanting to let go of Leniu.   Something tells me he comes back and being way more relevant than he has been.  Absolutely nothing to base this on though.

I got rid of that motherfucker weeks ago!!!!........for Hampton

He gets some extra minutes over origin and in the last couple of weeks before finals is my well researched and carefully thought out analysis

wolfking wrote:

Man, I'm finding it hard wanting to let go of Leniu.   Something tells me he comes back and being way more relevant than he has been.  Absolutely nothing to base this on though.

I know what you mean. The plan was for him to get more minutes in NSW Cup. Surely there was something to that? You certainly couldn't say he was dropped on form, so I have to think there was some sort of plan behind it to build him up to more first grade minutes.

I have listened to you all, I won’t trade Angus.

Thanks for the advice.

Why were Fisher Harris minutes down last week? Will that be permanent moving on do you reckon?