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    NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 86 - Fantasy is a 15 man game

    Mr Snrub
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    Post by Mr Snrub on Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:39 am

    Cleary probably won't play reduced minutes. If they were going to do that, why not just rest him completely.
    mrbrownstone
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    Post by mrbrownstone on Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:39 am

    @easytiger wrote:

    MS touched on this, but I thought I'd put up a bit of analysis that the great Steve Nicholls put together a few years back (which is as relevant now as then).

    How does increased minutes impact PPM:
    So how does increased minutes impact PPM?
    Increased minutes can lead to increased fatigue which in turn leads to a reduction in efficiency and a decrease in PPM.
    David Klemmer’s scores are a good example of this:

    NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 86 - Fantasy is a 15 man game - Page 48 Ppm10

    Each of the dots represent a game and show the number of minutes Klemmer played and the PPM he scored at.
    The line through the middle represents the overall decline in PPM Klemmer has as his minutes get greater.
    The steeper the line the more drastic a change in PPM, while a flatter line represents a player who might not see much change in PPM at all.
    Based on the line Klemmer could be expected to have 1 PPM in 30 minutes which would equal 30 fantasy points and about a .8 PPM in 60 minutes which would represent 48 fantasy points.

    However, the data points aren’t clustered around the trend line which does impact on how much confidence you can place in the trend line’s accuracy.
    Part of the reason for this is because in Klemmer’s games of between 20 and 40 minutes he only had three games with a PPM above the trend line, while a lot of his 40 to 60 minute games are above the trend line. That’s really odd and it could mean the trend line projects Klemmer’s PPM too low.
    If I was asked to guess I’d go with a number slightly higher than the trend line.
    Regardless it demonstrates how PPM can decline in reduced minutes.

    The key here, is generally if you do chart a players PPM vs minutes then you typically see a decline in PPM with extra minutes (largely fatigue/energy conservation).
    If a player has a scoring rate of 1PPM for 50 minutes, but that drops a little to say 0.9 for 60 minutes, the scoring shift is really only 4 points (50->54), much less than the 10 you might expect if they were able to maintain that PPM.

    Great analysis, cheers.
    wolfking
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    Post by wolfking on Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:51 am

    @Mr Snrub wrote:Cleary probably won't play reduced minutes. If they were going to do that, why not just rest him completely.  

    This is logical thinking.

    My other trade option is Hunt to Moses, which is probably way smarter.

    Will just have to watch Haas from behind the couch through my fingers.
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms on Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:09 pm

    @Rabbits21 wrote:
    I’m wondering if he just plays 30mins and is pulled off........?

    My guess is that Burton will be used to give JFH, Yeo and Cleary all an extended rest

    Burton comes on with the middles at ~20 minutes to give JFH or Yeo a rest in a ball play locking role. 15 minutes later the other one comes off with the first coming back on (JFH back on for Yeo). 10 minutes after HT we get Yeo back on for Cleary with Burton to half
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo on Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:18 pm

    @Rabbits21 wrote:
    I think Newcastle hadn’t decided that yet though like the Raiders still had to decide as well and get government approval etc....

    I think it’s 50% for “major stadiums“ (Homebush, BankWest) bit still 25% for Newcastle and others. The rationale is it’s easier to enforce social distancing in all-seater stadium versus one with hill areas. But I think they could probably update advice soon. Currently at 3 days with no community transfer at all.
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    Post by robelgordo on Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:22 pm

    I’m a bit hesitant to captain Cleary because of Burton, but I’m prepared to look like an idiot when he gets his rest at 72 minutes with the Panthers up by 34 and Cleary on 97 fantasy points
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    Post by Rabbits21 on Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:29 pm

    @robelgordo wrote:

    I think it’s 50% for “major stadiums“ (Homebush, BankWest) bit still 25% for Newcastle and others. The rationale is it’s easier to enforce social distancing in all-seater stadium versus one with hill areas. But I think they could  probably update advice soon. Currently at 3 days with no community transfer at all.
    Oh ok, I still think I heard the Knights and Raiders are seeking advice as they wanna let more in. 

    I heard on 2GB after 8pm last night so in tomorrow’s figures in NSW we have one case from community transmission from an unknown source.
    Dttragic2016
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    Post by Dttragic2016 on Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:39 pm

    @StormTrooper96 wrote:

    Please explain?

    Feel free to PM me if you've got any specific questions mate. But in general, the point of the betting tab is to help you compare odds across 4 sites to get the best odds for first or anytime tryscorer markets. 'ATS historical' is just how many times they've scored atleast one try in a game/total games played since 2013. 'ATS Model' is what our predictive model thinks the players true odds should be based off a heap of factors including recent tryscoring form, their team's match line etc. The green highlighting is a sign it's a good bet, red means it's a more than 125% so a really good bet (although these are just arbitrary numbers). Also if you're into draftstars (daily fantasy) - that's what the fantasy tab is for but we'll have NRL fantasy numbers in there next season too.

    You can hover over the headings for basic explanations and we've also released this article to explain what we're doing in a bit more detail: https://sporttechdaily.com/analytics/predictive-analytics-applied-to-rugby-league-looking-at-try-scorers-in-the-nrl/
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie on Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:47 pm

    @wolfking wrote:

    This is logical thinking.  

    My other trade option is Hunt to Moses, which is probably way smarter.

    Will just have to watch Haas from behind the couch through my fingers.

    Yeah go Hunt to Mosed
    wolfking
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    Post by wolfking on Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:06 pm

    @Chewie wrote:

    Yeah go Hunt to Mosed

    Yeah probably will. Thanks man.
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    Post by filthridden on Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:16 pm

    Moses has averaged 61 since returning in round 11. Better than I thought.
    Jele
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    Post by Jele on Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:17 pm

    @wolfking wrote:

    Yeah probably will.  Thanks man.

    Hedge your bets. Keep Cleary but captain someone else (McInnes?).
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    Post by wolfking on Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:28 pm

    jelejasof wrote:

    Hedge your bets.  Keep Cleary but captain someone else (McInnes?).

    Thinking DCE or Cook. Leaning towards DCE.
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    Post by Jele on Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:28 pm

    Last community team vote of the year - https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t1475-rd-20-team
    No Worries
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    Post by No Worries on Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:29 pm

    @StormTrooper96 wrote:

    Wouldn't be a bad end to the night Wink

    @Aardvark wrote:30 minutes in...energy levels could be on the wane for the remaining 50

    Who lasts 50 minutes ?
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    Post by Jele on Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:29 pm

    @wolfking wrote:

    Thinking DCE or Cook.  Leaning towards DCE.

    yep, either would be good. DCE could run riot under new rules? I'm guessing Warriors vs Manly day game will be high scoring.
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    Post by White Lightning on Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:33 pm

    Team this week with 16:

    Cook
    Haas (c), J. Paulo
    McInnes, Yeo, Barnett
    Cleary, DCE
    Lumelume, Wiliame
    Tedesco, Ponga, Pappy

    Luai, K. Mann, Carrigan, S. Crichton
    Fotuaika, B. Sironen, Randall, HTF

    My main decision is J. Paulo v Fotuaika. I'm currently starting Paulo & have Fotuaika in the loop. Would you change. Thanks.
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    Post by robelgordo on Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:35 pm

    @White Lightning wrote:
    My main decision is J. Paulo v Fotuaika. I'm currently starting Paulo & have Fotuaika in the loop. Would you change. Thanks.

    I think I'd go the other way

    EDIT: Just looked up Paulo, and hasn't scored >50 since R12. Eels are very likely to have nothing to play for by kickoff (if Raiders reserves lose, they are 4th) so could give him less minutes

    Titans will be playing hard and last week was a blip for MoFo, only his 2nd game under 45 since the restart
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    Post by wolfking on Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:42 pm

    @White Lightning wrote:Team this week with 16:

    Cook
    Haas (c), J. Paulo
    McInnes, Yeo, Barnett
    Cleary, DCE
    Lumelume, Wiliame
    Tedesco, Ponga, Pappy

    Luai, K. Mann, Carrigan, S. Crichton
    Fotuaika, B. Sironen, Randall, HTF

    My main decision is J. Paulo v Fotuaika. I'm currently starting Paulo & have Fotuaika in the loop. Would you change. Thanks.

    I reckon Mofo bounces back fantasy wise this week. Coin flip though mate. Eels will come out hard.
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    Post by White Lightning on Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:46 pm

    @wolfking wrote:

    I reckon Mofo bounces back fantasy wise this week.  Coin flip though mate.  Eels will come out hard.

    Yeah probably an unfair question to ask because it's a coin toss but you guys have swayed me towards Fotuaika starting. Actually thinking about the Eels frf both Evans & O. Kaufusi have seen more game time.

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