NRL Fantasy 2020 Part-42 Man Down!

Rapture_NRL wrote:

Panthers playing well, and without the in-house drama he's a good bet for a 40-45 average. Roughly priced around there already, but I rate him as the consistent type. After round 10, he only scored under 30, 3 times, over 50, 5x.

*I still believe the rumours and team hate affected him to start 2019. No longer an issue

The team did hate him 100%.

wolfking wrote:Has it been confirmed how long Twal is looking to be out for?

No NRL Physio posted a collage of screen shots of about a dozen people asking him with a comment "I don't hold anything back, I tell you what I know"

TU: trade Averillo in this week as starting ctr due to be and Niu in next week as a cash out

TD: trade Niu in this week

I'm selling Twal & Turbo. Which trade-in option do you like:
(a) Ponga & RFM/L. Mitchell or
(b) Cook & W. Hopoate/Z. Lomax/D. Edwards or
(c) Fotuaika & Nofoaluma/L. Mitchell/W. Hopoate/Z. Lomax/D. Edwards

Cheers

White Lightning wrote:I'm selling Twal & Turbo. Which trade-in option do you like:
(a) Ponga & RFM/L. Mitchell or
(b) Cook & W. Hopoate/Z. Lomax/D. Edwards or
(c) Fotuaika & Nofoaluma/L. Mitchell/W. Hopoate/Z. Lomax/D. Edwards

Cheers

Cook and Hopa looks mighty tempting to me.

White Lightning wrote:I'm selling Twal & Turbo. Which trade-in option do you like:
(a) Ponga & RFM/L. Mitchell or
(b) Cook & W. Hopoate/Z. Lomax/D. Edwards or
(c) Fotuaika & Nofoaluma/L. Mitchell/W. Hopoate/Z. Lomax/D. Edwards

Cheers

Depends on team makup really, but I like A.

First person I've seen this year looking at Nofo as a trade in. I'm hoping he can keep his 50 odd average up.

Honeysett wrote:Honestly, does Seibold last the year? I can't see the Broncos getting their act together any time soon.

StormTrooper96 wrote:I honestly think he is 1-2 losses away from following Kearney...

And surprisingly the key in both is Moses losing his player manager accreditation.
Moses represented Kearney and a bunch of players. Last year when they were going to sack Kearney he got the players to revolt. When he lost his accreditation they all become free agents and can renegotiate their deals so the new manager gets the 6%. That's why the Warriors moved so fast to punt Kearney. Funnily enough it's the same at the Broncos with Seibold and a number of big name youngsters. So at some stage Seibold needs to renegotiate his 5 year deal and right now he's not in the position to do so, so the Broncos don't need to make any rash decisions.

Joey Superior wrote:For cash out purpose Averillo over Niu based on BE right?

You probably know this Joey, you've been around a while, but I'll post in case it helps others.

If you intend to get both, then definitely get the low BE guy first. But BE only tells you when to buy, not who to buy. BE doesn't tell you how much money someone will make. To figure that out, you need to make a judgement on how much you think they'll average, times it by the magic number (I've been using 14000, but it's probably a little high atm) then you take a little bit off because getting to max value takes forever. You can use the price predictor on footystatistics.com, But I prefer to use Milchy's (still in the first post of this thread I think) so that I can extrapolate past three weeks and play around with different scenarios.

So basically BE doesn't mean buy Averillo by itself. It you think Averillo will continue to score 40 and hold his spot, you buy him because in 8 weeks he will have made 200-250k.

If you think he will score about 28, which is typical of a rookie centre, he only makes 100k, probably not worth a trade, and that's if he keeps his position.

Rapture_NRL wrote:



*I still believe the rumours and team hate affected him to start 2019. No longer an issue

That's my gut feeling too.

White Lightning wrote:I'm selling Twal & Turbo. Which trade-in option do you like:
(a) Ponga & RFM/L. Mitchell or
(b) Cook & W. Hopoate/Z. Lomax/D. Edwards or
(c) Fotuaika & Nofoaluma/L. Mitchell/W. Hopoate/Z. Lomax/D. Edwards

Cheers

a) Ponga/Mitchell

Suddenly liking Pongas draw, with their form and their opponents underperforming / undermanned. His base is looking great, kicking meters, goals, to go with being the focus of the knights attack.

Next few weeks are:
Cowboys in bad form
Undermanned Manly
Eels
Souths
Bulldogs

mattnz wrote:
a) Ponga/Mitchell

Suddenly liking Pongas draw, with their form and their opponents underperforming / undermanned. His base is looking great, kicking meters, goals, to go with being the focus of the knights attack.

Next few weeks are:
Cowboys in bad form
Undermanned Manly
Eels
Souths
Bulldogs

I am just getting Ponga in because he is a Gun and seems to have taken that step up this year. I feel his best game hasn't come yet. Plus, Turbo injured and I need a gun WFB. Looks like one of Drinkwater/Papy will partner Teddy and Ponga this year

Looking forward to Niu being named in the #20/21 this evening**

Guess no one learnt from Talau last week about planning 10+ pages worth of trades for someone that is yet to be named on the team sheet

(that has also played a total of 37 minutes this season, and didn't even make the final 17 last week)

(**my personal opinion, not based on any facebook or any other rumours).

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:

Why did they hate him? And how has that changed?

I don't know the full story, not my thing to get into, but with the whole sex scandal thing, they thought it was Dedwards or his WAG that leaked it, when in fact someone else. Something like that, can't quite remember and don't care to.

Mulvy wrote:

You probably know this Joey, you've been around a while, but I'll post in case it helps others.

If you intend to get both, then definitely get the low BE guy first. But BE only tells you when to buy, not who to buy. BE doesn't tell you how much money someone will make. To figure that out, you need to make a judgement on how much you think they'll average, times it by the magic number (I've been using 14000, but it's probably a little high atm) then you take a little bit off because getting to max value takes forever. You can use the price predictor on footystatistics.com, But I prefer to use Milchy's (still in the first post of this thread I think) so that I can extrapolate past three weeks and play around with different scenarios.

So basically BE doesn't mean buy Averillo by itself. It you think Averillo will continue to score 40 and hold his spot, you buy him because in 8 weeks he will have made 200-250k.

If you think he will score about 28, which is typical of a rookie centre, he only makes 100k, probably not worth a trade, and that's if he keeps his position.

Thanks Mulvy, this helps.

Not really sure if I want to end up with both because both spots isn't 100% secure, so my question was if had to choose one this week Averillo is the 'better' option with low Be whilst getting a look at Niu due to his higher BE?

StormTrooper96 wrote:Can go

Turbo > Ponga
Luai > Niu

8K leftover....

I think this is where I have to go otherwise HTF/Farnworth are my last WFB

Niu can go into CTR for Crichton. I am more confident Niu at FB vs Titans can outscore Crichton at Ctr vs Souths.

Selling Luai mate, have you got halves cover?

Rabbits21 wrote:
Selling Luai mate, have you got halves cover?

Yeah mate. Got Drinkwater via HTF

StormTrooper96 wrote:

I am just getting Ponga in because he is a Gun and seems to have taken that step up this year. I feel his best game hasn't come yet. Plus, Turbo injured and I need a gun WFB. Looks like one of Drinkwater/Papy will partner Teddy and Ponga this year

Yes, there are probably only 6 players that are must have this season, 3 are due to being so undervalued for their performance, Carrigan, Koro, Grant and 3 that are much better than the others in their position Haas, Teddy, Ponga. In the other positions there are multiple possibilities you could go with.

Mulvy wrote:

I don't know the full story, not my thing to get into, but with the whole sex scandal thing, they thought it was Dedwards or his WAG that leaked it, when in fact someone else. Something like that, can't quite remember and don't care to.

And on that topic... May's suspension is ending soon from memory