NRLFF 2006 Fantasy thread - Round 7, mini round
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That might be my highest score so far and I'm still 160 points off topping the week. Long road back to the top if you got initial selection wrong
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@Teeth Eater wrote:
Probably the craziest thing about this comp that I noticed early on was that almost immediately... as in by round 3 or 4, there were already fellas with teams worth well over a million more dollars than the lower ones. At the end of last round, Easy Tiger's team was worth $1,219,000 more than mine. It's enough to leave me curled up on my front verandah weeping uncontrollably.
I think it's a little bit of the nature of the format (plus double rounds etc).
It got me thinking...
If in your initial selection (as an example) you were weighing up a selection between two Cowboys:
Matt Bowen $666K - 2015 stats 46 average, 21 tries from 25 games.
Matt Sing $490K - 2015 stats 34 average, 16 tries from 25 games.
If you decided to get Bowen over Sing, then 6 rounds later this is what happened:
Bowen $666K -> $498K ($168K loss)
But the value in Sing you also missed out on: $490K -> $654K ($164K gain)
That trade decision cost $332K - that's a third of a Mil in one decision. Plus you would've had an extra $176K to spend elsewhere...
Personally, one of my strategies was to avoid players that had good try stats from 2015. To me it just meant at best they match, if they do a little better then there's marginal value, but a much greater chance that they do worse and lose money (especially in the short term).
Of course, part of that strategy meant I missed out on Matt Sing (his try scoring spree definitely surprised me, and he topped out at ~$190K gain), but basement price Wings: Hookey, Martin, Turner, Tupou have generally done great for me, Simmonds, Emelio less so, but still made some money. Fortunately missed out on the one dud in Purtell (but had a vague recollection that he wasn't great) - even then he didn't lose money (and made a little).
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