2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 31

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:I'm gonna miss Rein, Gos and Matterson in this week.

The exact trades I'm leaning towards. Griffin and Lodge out. Matterson to HLF with DCE and Mbye to WFB

When Rein last played for the Dragons in 2016 and played 70 min or more (12 games), his average was 54.83
http://www.nrlfantasystats.com/2016stats.php

last year using the same protocols his average was 48.67 from only a 3 game sample size
http://www.nrlfantasystats.com/2017stats.php

And no, I'm not interested in buying him

dreamers wrote:Best cash cow to trade in??

a) JMK
b) Su’a
c) Rein

(Have Gosie)

At this stage I'd give all a pass. I am. Getting Gosi this week after he played 80 mins

Loomer wrote:

The exact trades I'm leaning towards. Griffin and Lodge out. Matterson to HLF with DCE and Mbye to WFB

Griffin and Kennar for me.
Walke down to WFB.

Coul be any of the cows that come in really, but hard to choose

In the games Matterson hasn’t scored he hasn’t gotten over 43


Disclaimer - out of the three he scored 43 or less only one was 80 minutes

No trades for me need to save some trades

Pookus McFly wrote:I would like to see Rein average 50 when a rampaging Taumalolo bumps him off 7 times and he is dealing with a -14 in his score

Of the 6 HOK's who played against Cowboys only Issac Luke had 5 MTs. Rest everyone had only 2 for the entire game.



Conversely if you look at Rein he is averaging 1.5 MT's per 35 minutes of game time.

Don't tell me I have to make a Rein anonymous thread again.......

Ok changed my mind Croker gone for Jacks 108k in the bank with 25 trades left

Shumway wrote:

Good analysis Mearcats, but I think you're underestimating the effect of faster cash generation. If he generates the cash sooner, you can upgrade to a gun sooner and get the extra points from that upgrade sooner. Also as Rippin alluded to, I think you're double counting the trade to call it 2 trades. It's one trade to bring in Rein and 1 trade to bring in a gun or another cow (when we trade out Rein). That second trade is required regardless of whether it Rein or Gosi that you're bringing in unless you think Gosi is a keeper.

Your response inspired me to actually compare expectations and this is what I estimate:

Assume Rein for 3 weeks averaging around 50 gets me the following:
50 points per week for my team. This is probably a 10 point upgrade over my lowest interchange, so 30 extra points over three weeks.
Then I get $150k of extra cash. That can be used to upgrade someone else for an extra 10 points per week for the remaining 17 weeks. So an extra 170 points from the extra cash made.
Total 200 extra points over the season. (note, I have assume Rein is traded out prior to bye rounds so there's no benefit for bye scoring here).

Assume Gosi until Rd 14 averaging 35:
Takes a place in my emergencies rather than interchange, so I don't get his points.
Helps me fill a position in Rd13, so I get his 35 points there.
Makes approximately $230k which allows me to upgrade to a keeper Gun in Rd 14. That give me an extra 15 points per week over the final 9 weeks of the year. So an extra 135 points from the cash made.
Total of 170 points.

So even if Rein only gets 3 weeks and averages 50, he's the better choice to me.

I like the logic in trying to compare the two. But feel you are missing a key point of risk vs reward. Great to compare what you specifically think will happen but its important to consider the range of outcomes as well. Upside vs downside:

Rein:
- hasn't played that many minutes
- role is undefined (we hope 55-80 minutes)
- Average will be somewhere between 35-50 (53 minutes for 35 points last week - 2TBs included there are unexpected)
- Bench doesn't make a heap of sense (Wallace (55), Arrow (65), James (60), Proctor (80) and Rein (60?) playing large minutes with a 4 forward bench (leaves 140 mins for 4 guys and a Cartwright - <30 mins each)?
- Locked in for 3 games
- May get 1-3 more games (unlikely based on coaches comments and Peats fighting for an Origin spot)
- High initial BE - 24 (limits total cash made)

Gosie

- Average will be 30-35
- Very well defined role
- Salary cap, Hastings and injuries mean his spot is secure
- Plays 13
- Low BE this week (4)


When you consider these facts you end up with

Rein may make 63-144k in the next 3 weeks whereas Gosie will make 150 - 210k all up in 7 weeks (with no attacking stats whatsoever)
Gosie adds no scoring potential while Rein should give 0 -15 points per week on average improvement.

So:
Rein will be worth 60 - 195 points over the season
Gosie will be worth 110 - 147 points over the season

A lot of Gosies worth is in playing 13 but see how the risk with Gosie is massively reduced (good total points and cash). You are asking for an average of 42+ to beat the lower range of Gosiewski. With a high BE and more Peats injury news to come next week it feels like waiting has a lot of merit. Sure you'll miss 15 points at most but will avoid the downside of what could be a terrible decision.

StormTrooper96 wrote:In the games Matterson hasn’t scored he hasn’t gotten over 43


Disclaimer - out of the three he scored 43 or less only one was 80 minutes

In the games Aitken hasn't scored he hasn't gotten over 26




Disclaimer: In 2018 tries are a base stat for him haha

For Matterson, 8 points per game for support play and falling over the line is barely inflation

If Murray does end up playing, is he likely to score that well (assuming he'll be coming off the bench similar to week 1)? Would it be safer just to play Su'a as my last reserve?

Just a thought I had looking at the roosters bench, if a back gets injured do you think Matterson gets moved to cover? Aubo is at Ctr remember

Definitely Matterson and Gosie for me this week.

Solid right? Yeah of course it is haha

SoylentGreen wrote:If Murray does end up playing, is he likely to score that well (assuming he'll be coming off the bench similar to week 1)? Would it be safer just to play Su'a as my last reserve?

Murray's first game this year was coming off a hamstring injury, and he scored 22 in 28 minutes and then 53 in 53 minutes the week after. If he's starting I'd play him.

Maybe I just leave DCE and Walker alone in the halves.

And get Surgess instead?

First to get the boot, Kennar or Rochow?

@ItsLucky how lucky are you? I once found a four leaf clover while walking my black cat under a ladder.