The Betting Thread

Bugger! NH shat the bed - didnt protect the fricken ball and that intercept was a 14 point swing early that was an absolute killer!

Rippin and Tearin wrote:Bugger! NH shat the bed - didnt protect the fricken ball and that intercept was a 14 point swing early that was an absolute killer!

Don't worry about it on our behalf mate. Your tips are very much appreciated

Thanks mate. I’m way more selfish than that bro. I’m
Bitter that several of my multis are now dead lol!!

3 from 4 not bad in the end. Tasman got up convincingly over Canterbury and are now into $1.75. I still think there is value in that so keep getting on!

BOP also in quite a bit from $7.5 if you got on pre season to $2.5 now. Value has all gone there though!

The main value I see on the futures is the Ranfurly shield holder after round 10.

Here's how things look currently:

Otago hold with games vs Manawatu (rnd 4), Taranaki (rnd 5), Waikato (, and Canterbury (10)

I believe they lose the shield to Taranaki or Waikato.

Taranaki, if they won would defend against BOP (might lose), Southland, Auckland (probably lose) (in that order)

Waikato if they won would play Taranaki (dont think they lose that game)

If BOP took it off Taranaki, they would defend against HB (might lose) and Manawatu

HB would defend against Tasman (they'd lose that).

So, in short the following teams (and their current odds) is where I think things are at:

BOP - decent shot if Taranaki win the shield in round 5 - I'd put them at $6 so value at $8
Waikato - a hedge if you are backing BOP cause if Taranaki don't win Waikato are next in line and I reckon they are a good shot - I'd put them at $5.5 so value at $7
Tasman - a hedge on the above if Waikato lose the shield to HB, Tasman will have it by years end - I put that at $9 so value at $15


There are some other options out there that could happen, including Auckland, Taranaki, and a couple others, but I dont see value in any of them. Back the three above I reckon with the bigger money on Waikato!

I handed back all of last weeks winnings. Shit weekend on the punt.

For anyone following along on my Mitre 10 Cup bets, a key moment in the season will come when the ABs name their 31 next week. There are some fringe players that would make a massive impact on their Mitre Ten CUp side if they dont get named in the 31.

Big on my list is Otago where Ioane is probably set to miss out. They are a top 4 side I reckon, and paying way too much on the TAB at the moment. If they get Ioane they will be worth putting a few dollars on.

Tasman will be waiting on Moli and Squire. It looks like Squires self imposed exile from the ABs might be over, hence Im expecting him to be an out. If he remains playing for Tasman though, and Moli, who I think will probably miss out on the RWC is there too. I reckon there is still value on Tasman for the season.

Manawatu also look set to benefit, probably getting Laumape and Hemapo back. They are a better team than their record suggests. They wont win the tournament but they are on my list for weekly match ups.

I need to do my research on Auckland, but they look like they will get Papalii for the season, and I need to figure out what the deal is with Akira Ioane. Both those two will make a massive difference. Also, to note is that they are yet to have both halves playing together so they will continue to improve.

This week, still waiting on teams but initial leans are:
Otago $2.25 (but shortening and I havent seen their team yet although I know they have Coltman and Ioane back which will be huge for them)
Canterbury $1.87 (but shortening) they are a way better team than they've shown this year. Crazy odds v Wellington who have been lousy!

Manawatu on the point start (teased out a bit). Im loving Tasman this year but $1.01 H2H suggests the bookies love them even more. Take about a 35 points start on that and you should be safe.

Keen to see what the teams are for Auck BOP but on the face of it $4 for BOP looks too much.

Counties v Waikato probably is an avoid although I'd lean to Waikato.

Would probably avoid the other two games too!

Im following R&T, just hadn't posted here in a while. On track mate, gud reading

Bronco's at $1.90 seems over. Seibold needs to even the ledger and the bunnies are on a slide

No Worries wrote:Bronco's at $1.90 seems over. Seibold needs to even the ledger and the bunnies are on a slide

I can't back these teams with confidence this year, Bunnies massively disappointing recently and Broncos = Jeckyl and Hyde.

Revraiser wrote:

I can't back these teams with confidence this year, Bunnies massively disappointing recently and Broncos = Jeckyl and Hyde.  

Still better than backing the Warriors

Everyone lost all their hard earned or something ? Effing tumbleweeds....

Revraiser wrote:Everyone lost all their hard earned or something ?  Effing tumbleweeds....

Emptied our accounts on R&T's rahrah tips.

I had bank last weekend but it was emotionally exhausting. Haven't looked ahead this week but with no AFL it hurts

Krump wrote:
Emptied our accounts on R&T's rahrah tips.

Ooh aahhh, harsh!

Honeysett wrote:I had bank last weekend but it was emotionally exhausting. Haven't looked ahead this week but with no AFL it hurts

I actually know what u mean, sometimes when u have a run of success, it can drain u out.
AFL, semis up aren't they ?

Krump wrote:
Emptied our accounts on R&T's rahrah tips.

Haha (wanker ) - bad luck. I actually went 2/2 (EDIT I meant won two lost two not two out of two) which wasnt too bad considering my start. I wish I had the time to post more here cause there are always late team changes which change things up considerably E.g. Manawatu lost a couple of key guys late in the week so that was an avoid, while Waikato put out a really strong team so I did back them.

Any way, with time not on my hands this week, here are my leans:

Wellington - should win, probably by 7+
Shield match is a big avoid although if Laumape gets named and there are no late outs, Manawatu are arguably value
Canterbury will win, but no value - avoid
without any indication of teams its hard to comment on the rest but I wont have time to later so based on the teams I think will get rolled out:
HB H2H and points start.
probably Auckland H2H although team lists crucial in that one
BOP probably a good shot v NH
Tasman again

GL

Haha, you win some you lose some. Hopefully a few of you lads just hit on Wellington 7+. They were down by 7 with a few minutes to go and ended up winning by 7 with a wonderful last try. Crazy stuff lol!

13+ for Otago only came up for me very late, rolled into bunnies, and Utah -6.5. That's a bet after the fact sorry lads.

Sure Canterbury win RT?

@Revraiser You’d have to be mad to question his tips. I’ll bet my avatar on them

Revraiser wrote:13+ for Otago only came up for me very late, rolled into bunnies, and Utah -6.5. That's a bet after the fact sorry lads.

Sure Canterbury win RT?

Canterbury will win but last I saw they were paying $1.001