NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread

Contrastinghobby wrote:

What about funomics?

Revraiser wrote:

Self imposed is back !

WB

Contrastinghobby wrote:

So are more trades

lukeayee wrote:

Woweee we have some smart cookies amongst us.

I'm not the only one who has done econometrics?

L-Jimmy wrote:



I'm a fan too - nice work @ynot !

The way to deal with @lukeayee 's (correct) criticism is to build two models. The model you have here is a model of actual outcomes.

The model you need to complement it and add intelligence (a cute way of saying observed-minus-predicted) is a model of predicted outcomes - some folks here would've seen the xG stuff soccer uses (and is seen in FPL).

This sounds complex, but fortunately you've already darn near everything you need to build the predicted model! Easiest option is to rely on autocorrelation (i.e. tomorrow=yesterday+today+randomness) - a variant of which is how we price players.

A better (still easy) option is throw everything you can think of together in a LASSO or something, and take the top few predictors and back-build the model. Happy to help with R/Python code here if useful.

A full-powered predictive model is a big chunk of work (needs player identification, weather, trends in each, injuries, player-vs-players stats, season point, distance from Origin, etc etc) because it needs separate models for each position&player. But then you'd have a betting forecasting model that'd beat Sportsbet. Again, happy to help but given the quanta of work it'd be less hands-on-code help and more advice.

Contrastinghobby wrote:

What about funomics?

Rabbits21 wrote:
Can anyone simplify this any suggestions please? I haven’t felt panicked at all in the last 6 weeks but in a bit of a head spin this week.

GarethEllisismyDad wrote:

i think grant and fifita are the best in their positions, I want them for the run home, I am trading them in this week, there is a chance they dont have their most stellar performances this week, the alternatives i have in my squad are either on the bye, or in positioins I don't need, similiarly their alternative to trade in i dont want next week, the week after or 4 weeks down the track

so i'm just going for it

probably a non econometric or scientific or machine learning or Ai, or Game theory optimum answer, but its my story and I'm sticking to it

hope that helps

Camo123 wrote:

Would be interested to see how an AI would go over a full season in predicting trades, starting team etc

Rabbits21 wrote:Currently doing…..

Bula to Edwards
A. Johnston to M. King

Leaves 9 trades and 481k spare…

Team this week of

Robson
Hopgood M.King Matto
Preston Bateman
Hynes SJ
Manu Penis
Teddy Edwards Ponga

Boyd Lemuelu Hands Brimson
Haas Horse JDB Kris


Have considered getting Fifita or Grant but maybe should wait a week? Fifita carrying back stiffness and bit of a hip issue might play a bit lesser mins like Grant?

If Brimson is a late out I’d be down to 16 probs domt wanna use all bank to go Brimmo to Cleary as then not much money for moves next week. Would then have to consider JDB to Yeo to field 17 this week unless I went Boyd (do not really wanna sell him) to Fifita if Fifita does play.

If SJ is a late out I’d trade him and get DCE or Cleary.

Can anyone simplify this any suggestions please? I haven’t felt panicked at all in the last 6 weeks but in a bit of a head spin this week.

Ideally I will want Fifita, Grant, Cleary and maybe one of DCE or Murray but mightn’t be possible.

Snatchpato wrote:
I am familiar with some of these words.

lukeayee wrote:
I'm not the only one who has done econometrics?

Bethany_B wrote:

I've done it too, though my area of expertise is more with causal inference than forecasting.