NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

Cookie Monster wrote:





I'm quite frankly appalled at the degree of rampant muppetism that occurs around here


For shame people........................for shame

Aardvark wrote:I'm getting old and may have suffered some grey matter degradation, or maybe the new rules have altered this, but if someone is playing second row and has 2RF/CTR Dual you should be playing them in CTR in your NRLF team......at least until they have proven that they are an elite 2RF scorer and even then...

Honey Badger wrote:

Im with you here, but im getting old too. I cant get my head around playing a 2RF/CTR at 2RF knowing I could be playing him at CTR

Honey Badger wrote:

Im with you here, but im getting old too. I cant get my head around playing a 2RF/CTR at 2RF knowing I could be playing him at CTR

Camo123 wrote:All I know at this stage is I won't be picking Gosiewski in my EDG this year

Camo123 wrote:All I know at this stage is I won't be picking Gosiewski in my EDG this year

Camo123 wrote:All I know at this stage is I won't be picking Gosiewski in my EDG this year

mattnz wrote:

I have the same number, including Kei / Tupou if one of them gets the role in emergencies.

Some analysis of value available at CTR and EDG.

Potential value in CTR:

CTR Keeper - Burton (HLF)

<$370k
Kei / Tupou - ideal for EMG at $220k
Penisini
Paulo (WFB) - if he starts round 1 at CTR
May
Crichton (WFB)
Suaalii (WFB)
Berry (WFB)
Cotric (WFB)

Potential value Dual CTR/EDG:
CTR Keeper - Bird (EDG)
Aitken (EDG) (Maybe a Keeper, only if all season at EDG)

<$370k
Tago (EDG)

Potential value EDG
EDG Keeper potential - TPJ (MID)

$370k - $550k potential value EDG - Means paying a lot that you cant use elsewhere and arent getting a Keeper at this price point
Capewell
Martin
Graham - significant risk if he has another HIA
Fermor
Gilbert (MID)
Luki - If he gets starting EDG
*RFM - sounds like he misses a couple of rounds and may be eased back in. Chance that he doesnt recover from injury
Lawton (HOK) - if he gets starting EDG

<$370k EDG value
Bullemor (MID) - If he gets starting EDG
Nanai - If he gets starting EDG
Davey - If he gets starting EDG or benched in EMG

There is a lot of uncertainty around cheaper EDG players. You are generally having to go to within $80k of Bird and Aitken to get a non-dual who should keep his spot, but won't be a Keeper (and likely minimal upside for Capewell, Martin, Fermor). Gilbert stands out, as a dual MID with significant upside, as would Bullemor if starting EDG, but I would be playing both at MID in probably the hardest position to fill with playable value.

Lots of good value options at CTR < $370k, including a number that can be played at EDG and WFB. When most are short on cash after paying for Cleary, reduced cap and trying to have some kind of depth it is much easier to move one of Tago / Aitken / Bird into slots 14-17 and potentially another one in starting EDG, to get a keeper and still pick up of lots of the value offered at CTR, especially when so many of them are also Duals, which will be really important for depth cover this year.

I think one of the up and coming < $370k CTRs will prove to be the next Best / Ramien / Manu / Staggs / Lomax that can hit a 45+ average this season, you won't want to miss them, but I can't tell you yet who it will be. If I had to rank them by most likely, I would say:
1. Tago - could end up starting EDG if Martin or Kikau get suspended or injured
2. Paulo - Left center for Souths, sky is the limit. Gagai averaged 49 there last year.
3. Suaalii - Morris was averaging 62 on that wing last season
4. Penisini - In limited games appears to have a decent floor without a try.

The Bludger#2 wrote:
Great analysis Mattnz.
My centres are currently:
Burton (obvious)
Bird 
Penisini
Paulo (assuming Rd.1 DPP)
Tago (Edge reserve)
Crichton

Aitken - just too much $ for a player whose role is not set.

my tv broke wrote:

Something will happen in the next two weeks to make Gosi slide into a starting spot round 1 lol

mattnz wrote:Everyone may want to keep $80k to switch their $350k center that shit the bed in round 1 to upgrade to the $350k one that you should have selected that scored 80.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

Please don't make Crichton your 2022 Brailey. Just take the 150k on offer and be done with it