NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 1 - Offseason Edition

Made a new thread to officially get the ball rolling for 2020. Also definitely not because I wanted to add the 2020 portion to help with SEO and get us that first page google.

Edit: Can someone explain to me the ownership model regarding player prices above?

RE: OWNERESHIP MODEL

Last year NRL Fantasy adopted a model which included a fudge factor to player prices based on ownership.
So the traditional magic number times X wasn't the be all and end all or as accurate.
The above table allows for the fudge factor in pricing depending on ownership. eg. more people that own a player the higher the increase (fudge factor).

This is chewie's analysis on ownership

I'm not sure how useful (or correct) the following will prove to be, but I thought I would have a look at this to see if Failhub have indeed given players a price premium or discount based on their percentage ownership.

To do this, I took percentage ownership data from the 2018 Match Stats pages on MTB's site. The ownership data is the same for each player in every gameweek and looks to be end of season data (the same trend is seen in MTB's 2019 ownership data, and that is definitely end of season data.) This allowed me to collect the ownership data for practically every player (a couple of Round 18 players weren't in the stats) who got onto the field in 2018. Those players who were in Failhub's system, but played no games in 2018, had their 2019 prices artificially set to base level and could therefore be ignored (?) in the following calculations.

In excel, for each player I recorded their 2019 starting price, their 2018 average, and their 2018 ownership percentage. I also generated values for their 2019 raw price (the 2018 average multiplied by "a Magic Number", with a discount given for games played less than 10) and the percentage difference between the 2019 starting price and the 2019 raw price. I'll call this last term the Adjustment Factor from now on.
This data was then sorted by 2018 percentage ownership and lo-and-behold, for the most part, there does appear to be an observable trend in player pricing versus previous seasons percentage ownership. When you look at the data there are lots of small differences between each players Adjustment Factor, which can be put down to the error introduced by Failhub's rounding of player prices to the nearest $1000. With this taken into account, you can still see a sudden drop in Adjustment Factor as the ownership percentage drops below a certain level. Looking at this overall, there appear to be 11 distinct tiers of player pricing increases or decreases. These tiers are:


Tier 1       12.5 % ownership and above
Tier 2       10 % to 12.5 % ownership
Tier 3       7.5 % to 10 % ownership
Tier 4       6 % to 7.5 % ownership
Tier 5       4.5 % to 6 % ownership
Tier 6       3.5 % to 4.5 % ownership
Tier 7       2.75 % to 3.5 % ownership
Tier 8       2 % to 2.75 % ownership
Tier 9       1.2 % to 2 % ownership
Tier 10      0.3 % to 1.2 % ownership
Tier 11      0 % to 0.3 % ownership



What does this mean in terms of actual pricing changes? Well that depends on the value of the MN that Failhub used at the start of the year, and I don't think anyone knows what that was for sure, especially since they've started doing this shit.
Milchy quoted a value of ~14900 at the start of the year and with this MN, Tier 1 would all get a 0.5% price increase while the other Tiers would get price decreases (Tier 11 with a 7% discount.) I can't imagine that Failhub would be this generous with their discounting, although with a big MN I suppose the prices are high to begin with.

Here are the Adjustment Factors for a range of Magic Numbers





Those of you who bothered reading past the first sentence will have noticed the bolded "for the most part" earlier. In typical Failhub style there are numerous exceptions to the overall trend of the data, some of which can be explained away by high scoring single game players and players being added to the system after it was initially calculated. The rest seem to have no explanation.
All of the players who are off-trend and have a premium/discount that is lower than expected look to have been placed in Tier 6. A good proportion of the off-trend players who have a premium/discount that is higher than expected have also been placed in Tier 6. The remaining off-trend players premiums range into various other Tiers and sometimes beyond the highest Tier (I'm looking at you, Kurt Mann)
Whether this all means that this theory is a load of horseshit, or Failhub are just being cunts by ignoring their own rules and artificially raising the prices of players who they perceive are going to be popular picks, I leave to you.

If anyone wants to look into this themselves, I can PM you the ownership data or you can grab it yourself from MTB's site.



TLDR: Did Failhub give price increases and discounts based on player ownership? Probably.

@ Stormtrooper - you dodged a bullet not moving to Canberra because the nations capital is now the most polluted city in the world due to the smoke/fires

Carrying on from the Hooker chat last thread it looks like a continuation of this stategy could be viable again this year. 1 of Cook, Smith and McInnes (my preference is in that order to start season) along with Brailey and Mybe/Korisau/Robson/Manly Hooker could all be viable to start season.

Random wrote:Made a new thread to officially get the ball rolling for 2020. Also definitely not because I wanted to add the 2020 portion to help with SEO and get us that first page google.

Edit: Can someone explain to me the ownership model regarding player prices above?

Mate... will have to check out the new stadium this year!

Iron Mike wrote:Carrying on from the Hooker chat last thread it looks like a continuation of this stategy could be viable again this year. 1 of Cook, Smith and McInnes (my preference is in that order to start season) along with Brailey and Mybe/Korisau/Robson/Manly Hooker could all be viable to start season.

That is my current plan (without having done any actual planning beyond a few vague thoughts)

One possibility is that Mbye will be Tigers starting hooker, and selectable at CTR in fantasy. It would make him like Nikora last year where everyone has him, but helps with team picking

Manly coach Des Hasler is considering taking a daring gamble on boom teenager Josh Schuster in the opening round of the 2020 season.

There is no doubt that Schuster is destined for stardom - but most expected him to have to wait at least most of next season to make his top grade debut.

But word out of Brookvale is that the 18-year-old nephew of former Knights cult hero John Schuster is a big chance of filling the key five-eighth position.

That would enable the versatile Dylan Walker, who has had his problems at No.6, to move to his preferred position in the centres.

Much will depend on how Schuster, who starred for NSW under-18s last year, performs in the trials.

Hasler isn't afraid to throw young players into the fray if they are good enough - and Schuster certainly falls into that category.

WARNING - source from the MOLE!!

StormTrooper96 wrote:Manly coach Des Hasler is considering taking a daring gamble on boom teenager Josh Schuster in the opening round of the 2020 season.

There is no doubt that Schuster is destined for stardom - but most expected him to have to wait at least most of next season to make his top grade debut.

But word out of Brookvale is that the 18-year-old nephew of former Knights cult hero John Schuster is a big chance of filling the key five-eighth position.

That would enable the versatile Dylan Walker, who has had his problems at No.6, to move to his preferred position in the centres.

Much will depend on how Schuster, who starred for NSW under-18s last year, performs in the trials.

Hasler isn't afraid to throw young players into the fray if they are good enough - and Schuster certainly falls into that category.

WARNING - source from the MOLE!!

Yeah, but is he training the house down?

Happy New Years all and Kia Kaha to our brothers and sisters across the ditch

Milchy wrote:
This is chewie's analysis on ownership

Bloody hell @Chewie

That all sounds like a bunch of Wookiee gibberish to me

Cookie Monster wrote:


Bloody hell @Chewie

That all sounds like a bunch of Wookiee gibberish to me

Suspect we should get used to that this year,

Cookie Monster wrote:


Bloody hell @Chewie

That all sounds like a bunch of Wookiee gibberish to me

From a wookie's perspective, Chewbacca is the handsome rogue and Han is the dumb sidekick communicating in animal noises.

castlecrag sweethearts wrote:

Cookie Monster wrote:


Bloody hell @Chewie

That all sounds like a bunch of Wookiee gibberish to me

From a wookie's perspective, Chewbacca is the handsome rogue and Han is the dumb sidekick communicating in animal noises.

StormTrooper96 wrote:

Random wrote:Made a new thread to officially get the ball rolling for 2020. Also definitely not because I wanted to add the 2020 portion to help with SEO and get us that first page google.

Edit: Can someone explain to me the ownership model regarding player prices above?

Mate... will have to check out the new stadium this year!

May 9th I will be there for Cows/Tits The Magic Round meet up in Brisbane will get a solid Fanatics turn out, no reason we can't get the Townsville chapter rocking the week after!

SI wrote:

May 9th I will be there for Cows/Tits    The Magic Round meet up in Brisbane will get a solid Fanatics turn out, no reason we can't get the Townsville chapter rocking the week after!  

I'll be at Magic Round with a big group of mates. Hope a few of the teams firm up so it makes for good competition. Only games I will be going to Townsville will be Cows v Storm and Cows v Broncos.

Watching the local news last night and got a couple things out of the Sports.
1. John Asiata said that Green wants him to play more in the middle this year. He is looking at bulking up a little and becoming more of a middle forward. Said this is where he played most of his junior footy.
2. John Asiata met with his agent in Brisbane and discussed a possible move to the Titan once Arrow is let go.
3. Morgan agrees his past two years have not been his best. Said this year he is looking at getting into his running game more as this is where he believes he is best. Also said Valentine allows him to be more of a runner off the ball somehow?
4. Holbrook reckons Arrow ain't going anywhere this year, no matter how much the Rabbits offer him. He is going about business as if Arrow is playing for the Titans this year.

StormTrooper96 wrote:

SI wrote:

May 9th I will be there for Cows/Tits    The Magic Round meet up in Brisbane will get a solid Fanatics turn out, no reason we can't get the Townsville chapter rocking the week after!  

I'll be at Magic Round with a big group of mates. Hope a few of the teams firm up so it makes for good competition. Only games I will be going to Townsville will be Cows v Storm and Cows v Broncos.

Make sure you put some time aside to come see us then in Brisbane mate

SI wrote:

Make sure you put some time aside to come see us then in Brisbane mate

Who knows might even be sitting near ya. How many of the NRLFF are going to Magic Round?

I have no idea whether or not Arrow will get an early release & play for Souths this year but the recent trend is the player usually gets what he wants it seems so I'm leaning towards him playing for Souths in 2021. However he seems a loyal kind of person so he may honour the deal & go to Souths in 2021.