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    Trials and Tribulations of a NRL Fantasy Coach - Round 14 Trade update

    Boozecluez
    Boozecluez

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    Post by Boozecluez on Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:15 pm

    Cheers for the kind messages @Chewie @Sajjos

    Will kick this into another gear
    Boozecluez
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    Post by Boozecluez on Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:15 pm

    Trade planning V6002.4 8 trades remaining
    Roughly aiming at 5-6 trades prior to 16 leaving 2-3 trades purely for long injuries in the run home
    Currently have x5 RD16 players (though quality options), so laiming at 10-11 players total for this round

    Current team
    The bold options below are absolute clear cut best players in their positions so they are out of the trade out debate

    Cook
    Fifita Haas

    Taumalolo Murray Taupau
    Moses Brimson
    Nikora Bateman
    Tedesco Ponga CNK

    Smith Mcinnes Mahoney Martin

    Dearden Xerri Brittain Sivo

    ________________________________
    325k in bank

    Definite trade outs

    CNK - 536k - doesn't play rd16
    Sivo - 512k - low floor, doesn't play rd16
    Dearden -348k - injured
    Mahoney - 645k doesn't play rd16, step below keeper as well

    Potential trade outs for rd16

    Moses - 689k doesn't play rd16 but close to keeper scores
    Martin - 399k doesnt play rd16 but could be a late bloomer/cash cow
    Murray - 749k doesn't play rd16 but last resort trade out pending analysis
    Taupau - 716k doesn't play rd16 but last resort trade out pending analysis

    Luxury trade outs
    Xerri- 516k
    Brimson - 490k doesn't play rd16 but DPP HLF/WFB works well with Xerri covering backs


    Last edited by Boozecluez on Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:25 pm; edited 7 times in total
    Boozecluez
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    Post by Boozecluez on Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:49 pm

    So there is a few things to look at with my team and upcoming rd 16 bye.
    The bold options in the team above are absolute clear cut best players in their positions so they are out of the trade out debate

    Players like Murray/Taupau/Moses could possibly have cut price alternatives that may average more from rd16 onwards but more importantly rd16 points so we need to look at this question.
    Also may help free up cash to build depth spreading the cash further and even possible a few POD's

    So is trading a potential keeper worth a sideways trade for bye points?
    Maybe.....

    Will have to do some maths and see how it looks but lets base this on everyone playing 9 games from rd 17 onwards
    Some origin players could get rested playing reduced minutes (or not at all) after origin too, so something to consider.

    The thing with bye points is these are pure profit and potential for a straight up points gain other others.
    Someone who scores 50 over a 0 is massive, and other than injuries this variance doesn't happen when comparing players to say another team.
    Every other week teams scores fluctuate though there is some similarity to these scores, most good teams there may only be a points bracket/range of say 50pts and that could just be captain scores.
    The reason to this is to finish the year most have full teams of similar 'best' players so ground isn't lost or made up here.
    Also bringing in guns too late means they also have little impact on this and the longer you wait the worst it gets here too


    So playing around with some scenarios, lets look at 3 similar type players who play rd 16 and see how it looks if we bring them in compared to 'borderline keepers'
    ____________________________________________

    Murray 749k 56pts x 9 games = 504
    Finucane 581k 49pts x 10 games = 490   (avg calculated removing injury effected game)
    This example shows that you lose 15 points overall but free up close to 200k and gain points in rd16 (As long as Finucane doesn't play origin)
    _____________________________________________

    Moses 689k 52pts x 9 games = 468
    Johnson 648k 50pts x 10 games = 500
    This example may free up to 100k with both plays trending different ways, and a potential gain of 50pts in rd16 (As long as Johnson stays fit)
    _____________________________________________

    Mahoney 645k 50pts x 9 games = 450pts
    Taupau 716k 54pts x 9 games = 486
    Taukeiaho 636k 49pts x 10 = 490
    This example may free up to 100k with current trends, though overall is the same for Taupau to Taukieaho (Mahoney to Taukeiaho is almost 100pts upgrade when bye taken into account)


    Last edited by Boozecluez on Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:40 pm; edited 1 time in total
    Boozecluez
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    Post by Boozecluez on Wed Jun 12, 2019 9:33 pm

    So looking at the following outs and seeing what I can get with this

    Outs
    CNK - 536k
    Sivo - 512k
    Dearden -348k
    Mahoney - 645k

    2,041k + 325k in bank = 2,366k

    In
    Johnson - 600k
    Finucane - 580k
    Taukeiaho - 636k
    RTS - 550k

    =2,366k

    Now this is a rough look at some trade options though with some luck and price increases/decreases could even be doable on 4 trades. (Leaves me 4 for the run home)
    At a push could even play Martin or trade him instead to Dearden if cash needed too.
    The below would give me 9 players for the bye as well.

    Leaving me with a team:

    Cook (c)
    Fifita Haas
    Taumalolo Murray Finucane
    Johnson Moses
    Bateman Nikora
    Tedesco Ponga RTS

    Smith Mcinnes Taupau Taukeiaho

    Brimson (HLF/WFB) Xerri (CTR) Martin (2RF) Brittain (Loop)

    _________________________________________________________________________

    The main problem is timing, RTS/Johnson are both falling in price and need looking at, while Finucane is a smokey for origin
    So this may mean I may be best to hold trades this week.

    Dearden (or Brittain) allows me a look at Xerri this week with Martin into 17th man if needed.
    Brimson starts at half, while Sivo covers a late out from Tedesco
    CNK and Mahoney get another week to impress and push their case to be kept.

    If I knew Tedesco was going to play 100% then that would help with trades this week

    Other cheap players under consideration to fill out the squad are Watson/Norman/Harris/Twal
    Rippin and Tearin
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:28 am

    Hard to really form a trade plan around SJ until he is actually named to start isn't it?

    I personally am not keen on him anyway, too much of an injury liability, especially with 2-3 trades projected post round 17.

    If I were you I'd probably hold on most trades this week. You can have a free look at Brimson at half using Dearden on the loop. If he stinks it up I'd look at pulling trigger on a new half or shift Ponga into half and grabbing a new wfb. I'd also use Brittain to loop Xerri for your 17th spot (use Martin if Xerri is no good).

    I would however probably pull the trigger on one trade, bringing SST in for Sivo or Mahoney. Im a little nervous about Teddy getting a late rest, hence perhaps Mahoney would be the preferred trade out.

    I may not have thought that through enough mate, so apologies if theres a flaw there. In any case, some ideas Smile

    Boozecluez
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    Post by Boozecluez on Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:05 am

    @Rippin and Tearin wrote:Hard to really form a trade plan around SJ until he is actually named to start isn't it?

    I personally am not keen on him anyway, too much of an injury liability, especially with 2-3 trades projected post round 17.

    If I were you I'd probably hold on most trades this week. You can have a free look at Brimson at half using Dearden on the loop. If he stinks it up I'd look at pulling trigger on a new half or shift Ponga into half and grabbing a new wfb. I'd also use Brittain to loop Xerri for your 17th spot (use Martin if Xerri is no good).

    I would however probably pull the trigger on one trade, bringing SST in for Sivo or Mahoney. Im a little nervous about Teddy getting a late rest, hence perhaps Mahoney would be the preferred trade out.

    I may not have thought that through enough mate, so apologies if theres a flaw there. In any case, some ideas Smile


    Hey mate cheers for having a look over
    Good point regarding the Dearden loop, didn't look at it this way. I have the Xerri/Martin one setup currently
    Regarding trades, would look at 1-2 max with the aim for 4 in RD16

    Been thinking more about Johnson and may run him as my 17th man now instead (Bring in rd16) and may opt for 2 decent starting halves instead.
    That way all my eggs aren't in one basket should he not work out or get injured.
    Would use Moses as the means to bring him in rd16, at worst I can keep Moses there.
    __________________________________________________________

    Potential round 16 trade outs Martin/Moses/Murray/CNK for Pearce/Johnson/RTS and one of Finucane/Harris/Matterson (Pending origin,injury,origin and cash)
    Have some flexibilty here but would wait until rd16 to guarantee they play this round.

    Giving me for the run home (Bold plays rd16)

    Cook
    Fifita Haas
    Taumalolo Taupau Finucane
    Milford Pearce
    Bateman Nikora
    Tedesco Ponga RTS

    Smith Mcinnes Taukeiaho Johnson

    Xerri Brimson Dearden Brittain
    ___________________________________________________________

    How does that look as a rough plan?
    I realise I would be gambling on Murray but someone like Harris/Finucane/Twal on their day can put his scores out for 200k less and play the bye along with being a POD (to have a go at the table above me).
    Got to take some risks somewhere.
    Also understand no Turbo's but can't have them all
    Boozecluez
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    Post by Boozecluez on Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:28 pm

    Round 14 trades 54k in bank

    Anthony Milford 783k

    Out Sivo


    Last edited by Boozecluez on Sat Jun 15, 2019 7:37 pm; edited 9 times in total
    Boozecluez
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    Post by Boozecluez on Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:33 pm

    Round 14 team

    Cook
    Fifita Haas
    Taumalolo (C) Taupau Murray
    Milford Moses
    Bateman Nikora
    Tedesco Ponga CNK

    Smith Mcinnes Mahoney Martin

    Xerri Dearden Brimson Brittain

    ____________________________________

    Brimson covers for any late outs (Tedesco)

      Current date/time is Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:53 am