NRL Fantasy Fanatics

NRL Fantasy Fanatics - A place for discussion of NRL Fantasy / Virtual Sports / Super Coach and other Fantasy Sports

    2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

    bluetige
    bluetige

    Posts : 2155
    Reputation : 711
    Join date : 2015-12-13

     2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4 - Page 51 Empty Re: 2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

    Post by bluetige on Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:02 pm

    @Alfie wrote:I agree PPM is a tricky one, it generally doesn’t work. The only gut call I’ve made based purely on it that’s come off was actually to start with Vaughan back in 2017. Other than that, PPM’s rarely translate, especially when a player goes from a bench role to starting

    Thats why you find his starting ppm in that position and not use his overall ppm. You should be more selective with ppm's workout their ppm's for position, not overall. If he has no starting ppm then adjust his overall ppm to suit.

    If a guy has a ppm from the bench, he is likely playing in the middle. If he becomes a starter, where is he playing? Still in the middle or on the edge. If he is in the middle the his ppm may stay similar but if he's playing edge then his ppm will likely be less. You need to be more precise when working with ppm's
    Sipi1994
    Sipi1994

    Posts : 90
    Reputation : 13
    Join date : 2018-09-01

     2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4 - Page 51 Empty Re: 2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

    Post by Sipi1994 on Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:06 pm

    I hope I’m not too early for the party...
    Rapture_NRL
    Rapture_NRL

    Posts : 1579
    Reputation : 535
    Join date : 2017-02-28
    Location : Earth

     2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4 - Page 51 Empty Re: 2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

    Post by Rapture_NRL on Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:11 pm

    @Alfie wrote:I agree PPM is a tricky one, it generally doesn’t work. The only gut call I’ve made based purely on it that’s come off was actually to start with Vaughan back in 2017. Other than that, PPM’s rarely translate, especially when a player goes from a bench role to starting

    PPM shouldn't be taken isolation which I think is why people don't like using it. But if a player has never played X minutes from starting/bench, then what more could you go off?

    Side note, I was a noob 2017 and picked Vaughan just because I liked him at the Raiders and knew he was starting at the Dragons. No over analysis lol wish I had that knack again..
    mattnz
    mattnz

    Posts : 2235
    Reputation : 518
    Join date : 2018-03-11

     2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4 - Page 51 Empty Re: 2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

    Post by mattnz on Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:13 pm

    I find the discussion of PPM to be interesting.

    A broader view of what the different factors we are looking at when determining who are good candidates for our team is also worth discussing.

    For me, the primary one is being under-valued, I am not looking to bring in a solid gun just because they are a solid gun, I have to see a reason for them to be undervalued and that they should out-score their current price.

    The following are the key determinants I see of whether someone makes it into my team, I have ended up creating a points ranking system that has helped me to rank players to bring in based on:

    - Change in team role, for example was playing centre, now in 2nd row or fullback, which both tend to score better

    - Expected change in minutes, which I tend to use PPM as a guide for, with a slight reduction in PPM as minutes increase.

    - If a position is hard to fill, I give it greater importance to spend money on it, than others that have many options. This year I have prioritized Centers, Halves and WFB as key areas worth spending on, as the forwards have many great options that all provide value.

    - PODs - I personally prefer to have a POD in my team, rather than a player everyone else has. The theory is that if your goal is to win outright, the more differentiated your team is from everyone elses the better.

    - Injury - If a player had injuries last season that impacted their scoring but are unlikely to be an issue for them this year, then they are worth looking at as undervalued. Haas, Smith, Arrow and Matterson are good examples this year.

    - Form change - I actually have a negative score in my ranking system for relying on form change for a player. I would rather stack my team with multiple increased minutes guys relying on their PPM being close to what they had on lower minutes, than relying on form to change. For me that has removed a number of players that others are including, like Morgan, Bird, Carty, Elgey. It is not a reliable way to choose players. The last couple of years applying this principle would keep you away from guys like JBrom, hoping they get back to their best.

    - ISP scoring - I have done a lot of research and deliberately selected players that killed it in ISP last season but may not have the starting price to reflect it. It is also keeping me away from guys that may get a start but scored really badly in ISP. I saw an article recently talking up Cooper Johns as a potential starter for Melbourne at some point, in QLD cup he averaged 16.3.

    - Who they have around them that can make them better players. Deliberately added SJs winger (also for some of the factors above in that case).

    - Sub-gun players - these are my favourites. If you can find a player that is priced 10 points less than gun status in their position and you expect them to reach gun status as a keeper for the season, they are a must have. Both saves you salary cap and no need to trade them all season. To me they are the most important finds to add to your team.

    - Captain - You need 1 or 2 players that you can rely on consistently throughout the year for big scores to name as captain each week. I want my captain to also be under-valued. You don't want to have a sub-par captain and be missing 10 points a week until you can upgrade them.

    - Plays first bye - Having players that play the first bye help you to save trades leading into the bye. The only caution here is that you don't want players that need to be traded before the first bye to upgrade them, just before round 12. Sub-gun value players that play the first bye are gold!

    - Don't play origin - Not playing either bye makes origin players less valuable.

    - Role uncertainty - If a player is named round 1 to start, but other players are due back in a few rounds that are likely to take their spot, don't bother with them. Example last season was Ligi Sao.

    - Bottom price bargains - You need to work out who the best of the <$250k guys are and stack your team with all those that make sense, then see how much that leaves you with to fill out the rest of your team with.

    - Duals - Get as many of them as you can, they provide flexibility and can save you trades during the season.

    - Maximum points value - Work out the expected scores of everyone in your team together to maximize it. Sometimes it is worth allowing lower scores in certain positions to maximize them in others.

    - Non-playing reserves - NPRs should have very little money spent on them. They are purely there as cash cows. Putting someone like Egan or Bird in as NPR is leaving points on the table each week, that you could have used the extra money for somewhere else.

    Through having a list of ranked players in order, it has helped me to determine which players are better than others, for the way that I want to play the game this season, with much greater clarity than before I created a ranking system.

    When we hit TLT, I expect that many of the mid rangers I have identified will need to be replaced with a bottom dollar player, as more of them come out of the woodwork, and because of that i will be adding more sub-guns. Seeing guys like Arrow and Matterson who currently aren't in my draft team, getting added at TLT when I firm things up.


    Last edited by mattnz on Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:18 pm; edited 1 time in total
    Alfie
    Alfie

    Posts : 885
    Reputation : 231
    Join date : 2018-01-20
    Location : Manly

     2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4 - Page 51 Empty Re: 2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

    Post by Alfie on Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:14 pm

    @Sipi1994 wrote:I hope I’m not too early for the party...

     2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4 - Page 51 Giphy
    mattnz
    mattnz

    Posts : 2235
    Reputation : 518
    Join date : 2018-03-11

     2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4 - Page 51 Empty Re: 2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

    Post by mattnz on Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:15 pm

    @Rapture_NRL wrote:

    PPM shouldn't be taken isolation which I think is why people don't like using it. But if a player has never played X minutes from starting/bench, then what more could you go off?

    Side note, I was a noob 2017 and picked Vaughan just because I liked him at the Raiders and knew he was starting at the Dragons. No over analysis lol wish I had that knack again..

    Vaughan for me that season was first picked based on his huge PPM x the extra minutes expected.
    Rapture_NRL
    Rapture_NRL

    Posts : 1579
    Reputation : 535
    Join date : 2017-02-28
    Location : Earth

     2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4 - Page 51 Empty Re: 2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

    Post by Rapture_NRL on Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:26 pm

    @mattnz wrote:I find the discussion of PPM to be interesting.

    A broader view of what the different factors we are looking at when determining who are good candidates for our team is also worth discussing.

    For me, the primary one is being under-valued, I am not looking to bring in a solid gun just because they are a solid gun, I have to see a reason for them to be undervalued and that they should out-score their current price.

    ...


    Just edited it down so it wasn't spamming the feed

    Loved your break-down and points. I've copied it into my notes for future reference too Smile

    Where did you get your ISP stats? I want to investigate here a lot more but I don't know where to look.

    POD is interesting. I don't sit on either side, last year I picked ARey as a POD and he helped me out most of the season as a cutprice POD keeper... but a lot of people argue, the best guns averaging 60 should be in your team rather than a POD at 55. Thoughts?

    I like the SJ + winger argument. Players around have an effect. If they have shitty defenders around them, centres and wingers do poorly on defence via mis-reads or lack of confidence. Or bigger packs mean halves aren't targeted as much. Best one is the SJ effect last year though, because Harris, SJ, and Hiku killed it when they played together and Fusitua top try-scorer. I'm expecting similar this year.
    Alfie
    Alfie

    Posts : 885
    Reputation : 231
    Join date : 2018-01-20
    Location : Manly

     2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4 - Page 51 Empty Re: 2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

    Post by Alfie on Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:39 pm

     2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4 - Page 51 Giphy
    multiple.scoregasms
    multiple.scoregasms

    Posts : 2125
    Reputation : 729
    Join date : 2015-10-29

     2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4 - Page 51 Empty Re: 2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

    Post by multiple.scoregasms on Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:39 pm

    @Rapture_NRL wrote:

    Just edited it down so it wasn't spamming the feed

    Loved your break-down and points. I've copied it into my notes for future reference too Smile

    Where did you get your ISP stats? I want to investigate here a lot more but I don't know where to look.

    POD is interesting. I don't sit on either side, last year I picked ARey as a POD and he helped me out most of the season as a cutprice POD keeper... but a lot of people argue, the best guns averaging 60 should be in your team rather than a POD at 55. Thoughts?

    I like the SJ + winger argument. Players around have an effect. If they have shitty defenders around them, centres and wingers do poorly on defence via mis-reads or lack of confidence. Or bigger packs mean halves aren't targeted as much. Best one is the SJ effect last year though, because Harris, SJ, and Hiku killed it when they played together and Fusitua top try-scorer. I'm expecting similar this year.

    Picking a winger because they played outside Shaun Johnson would have netted you a huge average of 29 points last year with 8 games of 20 or less. Would have made a bunch of cash as Fusitua improved on his 2017 average by a staggering 0.3 points
    Rapture_NRL
    Rapture_NRL

    Posts : 1579
    Reputation : 535
    Join date : 2017-02-28
    Location : Earth

     2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4 - Page 51 Empty Re: 2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

    Post by Rapture_NRL on Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:50 pm

    @multiple.scoregasms wrote:

    Picking a winger because they played outside Shaun Johnson would have netted you a huge average of 29 points last year with 8 games of 20 or less. Would have made a bunch of cash as Fusitua improved on his 2017 average by a staggering 0.3 points

    I said I agreed with the argument and mentioned Harris and Hiku first. I am aware Fus isn't great in fantasy lol but discounting injury, Harris and Hiku performed above expectations. I'm not picking Gray after looking at his stats
    multiple.scoregasms
    multiple.scoregasms

    Posts : 2125
    Reputation : 729
    Join date : 2015-10-29

     2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4 - Page 51 Empty Re: 2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

    Post by multiple.scoregasms on Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:03 pm

    @Rapture_NRL wrote:

    I said I agreed with the argument and mentioned Harris and Hiku first. I am aware Fus isn't great in fantasy lol but discounting injury, Harris and Hiku performed above expectations. I'm not picking Gray after looking at his stats

    Hiku was a career 30 point scorer at centre. Outside of SJ he managed an average of 31. This doesn't beat his 2015 season with an average of 33.

    Harris averaged 49 outside SJ last year. 2018 as a starter he managed a 45 point average. 2016 he managed a 52 point average despite games at centre and 5/8. Without these it would be 55. 2015 average of 50 at second row.

    SJ doesn't remarkable increase the average of players around him, players that are good fantasy scorers will continue to be good fantasy scorers with or without him.
    mattnz
    mattnz

    Posts : 2235
    Reputation : 518
    Join date : 2018-03-11

     2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4 - Page 51 Empty Re: 2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

    Post by mattnz on Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:13 pm

    @multiple.scoregasms wrote:

    Picking a winger because they played outside Shaun Johnson would have netted you a huge average of 29 points last year with 8 games of 20 or less. Would have made a bunch of cash as Fusitua improved on his 2017 average by a staggering 0.3 points

    Fusitua scored 22 tries last season playing outside SJ. This season it will be Katoa on the right wing. If he scores close to that many he will be a great pickup.
    multiple.scoregasms
    multiple.scoregasms

    Posts : 2125
    Reputation : 729
    Join date : 2015-10-29

     2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4 - Page 51 Empty Re: 2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

    Post by multiple.scoregasms on Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:15 pm

    @mattnz wrote:

    Fusitua scored 22 tries last season playing outside SJ. This season it will be Katoa on the right wing. If he scores close to that many he will be a great pickup.

    It doesn't matter if he scores 100 tries outside SJ if he only ends up averaging 29 points.

    HOW a player scores their points is irrelevant. If I pick a front rower and they kick for 800 metres I'll still take the 40 points
    mattnz
    mattnz

    Posts : 2235
    Reputation : 518
    Join date : 2018-03-11

     2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4 - Page 51 Empty Re: 2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

    Post by mattnz on Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:16 pm

    @Rapture_NRL wrote:

    Just edited it down so it wasn't spamming the feed

    Loved your break-down and points. I've copied it into my notes for future reference too Smile

    Where did you get your ISP stats? I want to investigate here a lot more but I don't know where to look.

    POD is interesting. I don't sit on either side, last year I picked ARey as a POD and he helped me out most of the season as a cutprice POD keeper... but a lot of people argue, the best guns averaging 60 should be in your team rather than a POD at 55. Thoughts?

    I like the SJ + winger argument. Players around have an effect. If they have shitty defenders around them, centres and wingers do poorly on defence via mis-reads or lack of confidence. Or bigger packs mean halves aren't targeted as much. Best one is the SJ effect last year though, because Harris, SJ, and Hiku killed it when they played together and Fusitua top try-scorer. I'm expecting similar this year.

    NSW stats https://www.nswrl.com.au/players/
    QRL stats https://www.qrl.com.au/players/
    Rapture_NRL
    Rapture_NRL

    Posts : 1579
    Reputation : 535
    Join date : 2017-02-28
    Location : Earth

     2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4 - Page 51 Empty Re: 2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

    Post by Rapture_NRL on Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:29 pm

    @multiple.scoregasms wrote:

    Hiku was a career 30 point scorer at centre. Outside of SJ he managed an average of 31. This doesn't beat his 2015 season with an average of 33.

    Harris averaged 49 outside SJ last year. 2018 as a starter he managed a 45 point average. 2016 he managed a 52 point average despite games at centre and 5/8. Without these it would be 55. 2015 average of 50 at second row.

    SJ doesn't remarkable increase the average of players around him, players that are good fantasy scorers will continue to be good fantasy scorers with or without him.

    SJ + Harris together for an average of 55
    SJ + Hiku together for an average of 38 (discounting interchange appearances)

    Edit: I'm not arguing SJ-specific here, more some players make others better, whether that's a half, centre, prop etc


    Last edited by Rapture_NRL on Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:34 pm; edited 1 time in total
    Chewie
    Chewie

    Posts : 5330
    Reputation : 2487
    Join date : 2016-02-02
    Location : Millennium Falcon

     2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4 - Page 51 Empty Re: 2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

    Post by Chewie on Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:30 pm

     2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4 - Page 51 Tenor
    Chewie
    Chewie

    Posts : 5330
    Reputation : 2487
    Join date : 2016-02-02
    Location : Millennium Falcon

     2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4 - Page 51 Empty Re: 2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

    Post by Chewie on Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:34 pm

     2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4 - Page 51 Tenor
    Mulvy
    Mulvy
    Moderator

    Posts : 5628
    Reputation : 1720
    Join date : 2016-01-26

     2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4 - Page 51 Empty Re: 2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

    Post by Mulvy on Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:44 pm

    Not much of a party today.

    New thread
    Rapture_NRL
    Rapture_NRL

    Posts : 1579
    Reputation : 535
    Join date : 2017-02-28
    Location : Earth

     2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4 - Page 51 Empty Re: 2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

    Post by Rapture_NRL on Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:45 pm

     2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4 - Page 51 Papi-dance-dance-for-papi-gif-5358876
    Mulvy
    Mulvy
    Moderator

    Posts : 5628
    Reputation : 1720
    Join date : 2016-01-26

     2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4 - Page 51 Empty Re: 2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

    Post by Mulvy on Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:45 pm


      Current date/time is Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:22 pm