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    2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 3

    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy on Mon Feb 04, 2019 9:53 pm

    @Welshy wrote:

    Either starting FB or CTR R1 TLT, priced at 28.5, averaged 41 when playing 80 at CTR or in the No.1 shirt

    Agree with this. Priced about the same as Capewell. I would be tempted to take Hampton, just a gut feel thing, has a lot of upside. Capewell when starting 2fr didn't always play 80 under Flannagan, so remains to be seen how the rotation goes and then if Graham comes back.... If Hampton gets 40's you can keep him for rd 12, maybe all year, who knows.
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    Post by Welshy on Mon Feb 04, 2019 9:56 pm

    @Mulvy wrote:

    Agree with this. Priced about the same as Capewell. I would be tempted to take Hampton, just a gut feel thing, has a lot of upside. Capewell when starting 2fr didn't always play 80 under Flannagan, so remains to be seen how the rotation goes and then if Graham comes back.... If Hampton gets 40's you can keep him for rd 12, maybe all year, who knows.

    If he goes around his 41 and I had kept him all year to that point, in the CTR position I'd likely keep him to end of season unless I had a load of trades left, which I never do for luxury upgrades Sad

    Holland another around that price which could be a CT keeper if he nails down an 80 minute role, i'd want him having GK though and that's no guarentee with Martin there

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    Post by Welshy on Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:01 pm

    @Alfie wrote:I wanted to bring it up before but how are people not going with Smith or Cook? Rule number 1 has always been to pick smith, put the C on and forget. Cook now comes under the rule of course

    I'm just taking the risk Macca elevates to his 50/50 shot of going around 55-58

    I think Cook comes down to around 58-62 with Smith 58-60

    I guess I think the extra $ can be invested in giving me a more solid CTR WFB at seasons start and still have the potential money makers on the bench instead of playing WFB/CTR roulette early doors

    Looking at that though it require Macca lifting and the other 2 dropping which seems a bit of wishful thinking
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    Post by Alfie on Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:03 pm

    @Welshy wrote:

    I'm just taking the risk Macca elevates to his 50/50 shot of going around 55-58

    I think Cook comes down to around 58-62 with Smith 58-60

    I guess I think the extra $ can be invested in giving me a more solid CTR WFB at seasons start and still have the potential money makers on the bench instead of playing WFB/CTR roulette early doors

    Looking at that though it require Macca lifting and the other 2 dropping which seems a bit of wishful thinking

    I see the logic but I still have Smith, Taupau, Arrow and Teddy at the moment with good middies and cashies including Ofa, Murray and Edwards
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    Post by King Assassin on Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:06 pm

    @Alfie wrote:

    Nah, Rabbitohs don't have as much forward depth as the Broncos did last year

    Murray isnt a big bloke like tpj if he starts it will be at lock
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy on Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:06 pm

    @Welshy wrote:

    I'm just taking the risk Macca elevates to his 50/50 shot of going around 55-58

    I think Cook comes down to around 58-62 with Smith 58-60

    I guess I think the extra $ can be invested in giving me a more solid CTR WFB at seasons start and still have the potential money makers on the bench instead of playing WFB/CTR roulette early doors

    Looking at that though it require Macca lifting and the other 2 dropping which seems a bit of wishful thinking

    I can certainly see Cook dropping. It's really bloody hard to maintain that avg and we don't know what the Bennett factor will do. Smith I reckon could be slightly unders even - he'll have all the responsibility this year. But if you think Macca can get back up there like I do, the money saved buys points and trades elsewhere. As long as you can pick a captain who will score around 60 or close to it, for the first few rounds you're not losing anything there.
    Welshy
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    Post by Welshy on Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:09 pm

    @Alfie wrote:

    I see the logic but I still have Smith, Taupau, Arrow and Teddy at the moment with good middies and cashies including Ofa, Murray and Edwards

    That's fine mate and a good looking line up, I think a few see a lot of value in high range middies so are trying to fit them all in, ones that can elevate to just below gun level before dumping and upgrading! My team certainly has that look currently

    Tolman, Gillett, Murray, TPJ, Ofa, Stimson, IPap, Munster, Matterson, Ofa, Vaughan, Watson all poteniall up to and beyond 10 points underpriced as an example so you are getting great scores and making good cash

    Got to pick the right ones which is where the risk is
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    Post by King Assassin on Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:09 pm

    @Mulvy wrote:

    I can certainly see Cook dropping. It's really bloody hard to maintain that avg and we don't know what the Bennett factor will do. Smith I reckon could be slightly unders even - he'll have all the responsibility this year. But if you think Macca can get back up there like I do, the money saved buys points and trades elsewhere. As long as you can pick a captain who will score around  60 or close to it, for the first few rounds you're not losing anything there.

    Do you think cleary is a worthy captaincy option in the early rounds
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    Post by Welshy on Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:11 pm

    @Mulvy wrote:

    I can certainly see Cook dropping. It's really bloody hard to maintain that avg and we don't know what the Bennett factor will do. Smith I reckon could be slightly unders even - he'll have all the responsibility this year. But if you think Macca can get back up there like I do, the money saved buys points and trades elsewhere. As long as you can pick a captain who will score around  60 or close to it, for the first few rounds you're not losing anything there.

    With the upper echeloen guns they need to hit the ground running early season same as everyone else to maintain the wild price tags, more than likely they get near their pre season averages but I hate the fact I'm lumping the money on someone who with a slow start averages the same through 3/5 games as someone priced $200,000 less
    Welshy
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    Post by Welshy on Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:13 pm

    @King Assassin wrote:

    Do you think cleary is a worthy captaincy option in the early rounds

    For me, too much risk for a half to start the season with a C on him! If they start slow from an attacking sense they are likely to score low, whereas the safety of a hooker or big time FR/2RF for captain who is more likely to score better in a big defeat and still can score well in a high scoring attacking game
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    Post by Alfie on Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:14 pm

    @Welshy wrote:

    That's fine mate and a good looking line up, I think a few see a lot of value in high range middies so are trying to fit them all in, ones that can elevate to just below gun level before dumping and upgrading! My team certainly has that look currently

    Tolman, Gillett, Murray, TPJ, Ofa, Stimson, IPap, Munster, Matterson, Ofa, Vaughan, Watson all poteniall up to and beyond 10 points underpriced as an example so you are getting great scores and making good cash

    Got to pick the right ones which is where the risk is

    That's what I'm scared of, picking the right players. I got so lucky last year. Cartwright was the only dud I had. I doubt I'll be that lucky this year
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    Post by Sipi1994 on Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:14 pm

    @Mulvy wrote:

    White Lightning mentioned it here:

    https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t760p180-2019-nrl-com-fantasy-thread-part-2?highlight=eels+four+forward+bench#248881

    I went snooping somewhere at the time (one eyed eel I think) and found a lot of talk to back it up. Now I can't seem to find it again.

    1eyedeel? I wouldn’t believe a thing you hear on there. Worst eels page around.
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    Post by Mulvy on Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:17 pm

    @King Assassin wrote:

    Do you think cleary is a worthy captaincy option in the early rounds

    Well I do, I think he'll go gangbusters. BUT because of this I investigated the risk of captaining him (only this morning in fact). I discounted games where he didn't play the full 80. I don't have the figures in front of me but it was something like this. In the last two years his floor was 18. About 40% of the time his score is less than 50 and about 25% of the time his score is less than 40. Not really captain material. And I got burned badly last year captaining backs, twice, for their shit score, only for them to go gangbusters the following week.
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    Post by Welshy on Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:19 pm

    @Alfie wrote:

    That's what I'm scared of, picking the right players. I got so lucky last year. Cartwright was the only dud I had. I doubt I'll be that lucky this year

    I hope you go well lad! Same risk in picking high level guns and them under-performing early season like Taumalolo who scored 45 over first 5 rounds, 9 points under season average or CS9 averaged 52 over first 5 rounds, 8 points under seasons average

    although less risk as they are guns for a reason, consistent higher level of scoring over a season!


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    Post by Bagpipe on Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:20 pm

    @Alfie wrote:I wanted to bring it up before but how are people not going with Smith or Cook? Rule number 1 has always been to pick smith, put the C on and forget. Cook now comes under the rule of course

    I'm expecting big things from McCullough this year. Enough so that I believe he'll only be 3-5 points short of the great Cam Smith and rising star Cook. He's now in his second season back from the knee injury and I expect him to bounce back. With Seibold as coach hopefully he'll have him watching simulations like the halves and searching for opportunities in attack this year. We know he has a 40/20 in his arsenal and a kicking game, let's hope he puts those skills to some use this year. I'm expecting a 55+ year but I'll admit I'm slightly biased.

    I love Cam Smith and this is blasphemy but father time may finally be taking it's toll. He was great without being fantastic last year and this may be the slow decline of the GOAT (I may eat my words this year). Cook is an uncertainty taking the new coach, the form of the Burgii and a slow second half of last season into consideration.

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    Post by Alfie on Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:21 pm

    @Welshy wrote:

    I hope you go well lad! Same risk in picking high level guns and them under-performing early season like Taumalolo who scored 45 over first 5 rounds, 9 points under season average or CS9 averaged 52 over first 5 rounds, 8 points under seasons average

    although less risk as they are guns for a reason, consistent higher level of scoring over a season!



    Cheers Welshy legend. All the best likewise
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    Post by Sipi1994 on Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:22 pm

    @Bagpipe wrote:

    I'm expecting big things from McCullough this year. Enough so that I believe he'll only be 3-5 points short of the great Cam Smith and rising star Cook. He's now in his second season back from the knee injury and I expect him to bounce back. With Seibold as coach hopefully he'll have him watching simulations like the halves and searching for opportunities in attack this year. We know he has a 40/20 in his arsenal and a kicking game, let's hope he puts those skills to some use this year. I'm expecting a 55+ year but I'll admit I'm slightly biased.

    I love Cam Smith and this is blasphemy but father time may finally be taking it's toll. He was great without being fantastic last year and this may be the slow decline of the GOAT (I may eat my words this year). Cook is an uncertainty taking the new coach, the form of the Burgii and a slow second half of last season into consideration.


    People realize they’re allowed to pick Macca AND Cook/Smith yeah?
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    Post by Alfie on Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:25 pm

    @Bagpipe wrote:

    I'm expecting big things from McCullough this year. Enough so that I believe he'll only be 3-5 points short of the great Cam Smith and rising star Cook. He's now in his second season back from the knee injury and I expect him to bounce back. With Seibold as coach hopefully he'll have him watching simulations like the halves and searching for opportunities in attack this year. We know he has a 40/20 in his arsenal and a kicking game, let's hope he puts those skills to some use this year. I'm expecting a 55+ year but I'll admit I'm slightly biased.

    I love Cam Smith and this is blasphemy but father time may finally be taking it's toll. He was great without being fantastic last year and this may be the slow decline of the GOAT (I may eat my words this year). Cook is an uncertainty taking the new coach, the form of the Burgii and a slow second half of last season into consideration.


    I feel like McCullough didn't suffer from injury that much last year. A lot of low 40s scores and even three sub 40s scores playing more than 70. I could also eat my words but I think he could quite easily let people down
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    Post by Welshy on Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:27 pm

    @Alfie wrote:

    I feel like McCullough didn't suffer from injury that much last year. A lot of low 40s scores and even three sub 40s scores playing more than 70. I could also eat my words but I think he could quite easily let people down

    For Macca to let people down he will need to score as priced (not too bad) and Cook and Smith average where they are priced to start season

    Macca is literally a 50/50 call. 3 seasons of scoring 55+ 3 seasons of averaging 48
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    Post by Mulvy on Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:29 pm

    @Alfie wrote:

    I feel like McCullough didn't suffer from injury that much last year. A lot of low 40s scores and even three sub 40s scores playing more than 70. I could also eat my words but I think he could quite easily let people down

    He started slowish after his return from ACL. He then returned from a hyper-extended elbow after one week when he was supposed to be out 4-6 weeks. Then came origin. He was just kinda under the pump all year.

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