2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 2

So who is going to be this years 2017 Chrichton or 2018 Kikau/Arrow

StormTrooper96 wrote:So who is going to be this years 2017 Chrichton or 2018 Kikau/Arrow

Probably for the big calls thread but Murray to average 65.

Have updated first page with positions, so you can check who has got/lost DPP.

Also included 2 averages.

First average is what they appear to be priced at . 2nd average is last years average.
Some of the discrepancies are because players played less than 10 games.

No idea what the explanation is for other changes.
Could be a change to the scoring system, could just be random Fanhub shenanigans. Guess we have to wait a week or 2 to find out.

#justfanhubthings

I wonder what sort of change to the scoring they could have added or even gotten rid of. My thoughts
- Charge Down
- Forced Error
- Maybe loss of points for being penalised for taking to long to walk off for sin-bin

Maybe they could have even just changed how much things score and are deducted.

I reckon Tolman could be a good buy this year. Has a big hole in the front row to fill with no Graham, no Woods, no Klemmer. He has to pick up a lot of slack and a lot of minutes. 55+ scorer this year. He will be priced at around 40 (according to NRL.com) and i reckon could be close to 10-15 points underpriced.

Fantasy could open for the next year the week after the grand final and you blokes would still be putting out team builders a week before they did

StormTrooper96 wrote:I reckon Tolman could be a good buy this year. Has a big hole in the front row to fill with no Graham, no Woods, no Klemmer. He has to pick up a lot of slack and a lot of minutes. 55+ scorer this year. He will be priced at around 40 (according to NRL.com) and i reckon could be close to 10-15 points underpriced.

Tolman is interesting. He is finally going to be the big man there, and not sitting behind Woods/Graham and will be able to get decent minutes. Last year in the four games that he got 80 minutes he averaged 63.75 points a game. Which is amazing, the problem is there is steady regression in his stats in 2014 his PPM was 0.90ppm, 2015 - 0.83ppms, 2016 - 0.80, 2017 - 0.77, 2018 - 0.73. So it isn't drastic regression, but he regressed last year even though he ended up playing on average 7 minutes less. Which you usually see PPM drop when people increase their playing time, not decrease it. Realistically he will be around the 0.70ppm - 0.75ppm. So then it comes down to his minutes. Surely he wont be an out and out 80 minute player, and the most he has averaged in a season recently is 62 minutes. He is priced around the 40 point range. So for him to see the uptick you would want (Which is usually about a 10 point bump) he would need to be getting close to 70 minutes with a ppm of 0.75 which as I showed is on the higher end of things. The last time he averaged more than 50 points a game was back in 2015. With that said, if you think him being the main Prop will give him those minutes it is worth a punt. Just the Bulldogs have J. Jackson, R. Martin, R. Faitala-Mariner who all averaged 70 minutes in the 2RF last season. Meaning that the majority of their rotation will most likely be through the forwards.

Exert from my review on Welshys team.

TL;DR: He needs to be getting at least 70 minutes a game or his work rate needs to increase to what it was 3-4 years ago.

Random wrote:


Tolman is interesting. He is finally going to be the big man there, and not sitting behind Woods/Graham and will be able to get decent minutes. Last year in the four games that he got 80 minutes he averaged 63.75 points a game. Which is amazing, the problem is there is steady regression in his stats in 2014 his PPM was 0.90ppm, 2015 - 0.83ppms, 2016 - 0.80, 2017 - 0.77, 2018 - 0.73. So it isn't drastic regression, but he regressed last year even though he ended up playing on average 7 minutes less. Which you usually see PPM drop when people increase their playing time, not decrease it. Realistically he will be around the 0.70ppm - 0.75ppm. So then it comes down to his minutes. Surely he wont be an out and out 80 minute player, and the most he has averaged in a season recently is 62 minutes. He is priced around the 40 point range. So for him to see the uptick you would want (Which is usually about a 10 point bump) he would need to be getting close to 70 minutes with a ppm of 0.75 which as I showed is on the higher end of things. The last time he averaged more than 50 points a game was back in 2015. With that said, if you think him being the main Prop will give him those minutes it is worth a punt. Just the Bulldogs have J. Jackson, R. Martin, R. Faitala-Mariner who all averaged 70 minutes in the 2RF last season. Meaning that the majority of their rotation will most likely be through the forwards.

Exert from my review on Welshys team.

TL;DR:  He needs to be getting at least 70 minutes a game or his work rate needs to increase to what it was 3-4 years ago.

J. Jackson, RFM and Martin all played those 70 minutes around when the other was either out injured, on rep duties or in second grade. Plus throw in CHN now.
The FRF/ will most likely be made up of Tolman  and Napa.
I predict will line up something like this
8. Napa 9. Lichaa 10. Tolman 11. Jackson 12. Martin/RFM 13. Elliot 14. Fu Brown/JMK 15. CHN 16. RFM/Martin 17. Sue
So they will most likely be sharing those FRF minutes between Napa who will probably grab 45mins a game, Tolman, Sue and possibly Elliot could even slip in at FRF and Martin could go to lock.

Mind you I am a bit concerned he wont be able to keep up that effort if he plays big minutes week in week out but i wouldnt be surprised if he is a bit of a smokey this year.

Now that i think about it, i would if the doggies could decide not to run a second hooker on the bench and CHN could even play that roaming edge roll in and around the ball in order to carry an extra forward.

Random wrote:


TL;DR:  He needs to be getting at least 70 minutes a game or his work rate needs to increase to what it was 3-4 years ago.

I like the Cliff Notes. Can we get these for every player ?

Changes to SuperCoach. Could be something similar to happen in Fantasy.


SuperCoach NRL introduces the 'try contribution' rule

SUPERCOACH
Huge SuperCoach NRL rule change coming ahead of 2019 season

The Last Touch Assist is dead.

The biggest SuperCoach NRL rule change in years will see the controversial scoring metric replaced by the new Try Contribution stat.

Introduced in 2015, the Last Touch Assist (6 points) was created to more accurately award points to players who helped create try-scoring opportunities. The stat gave valuable points to the last person to touch the ball before a try was scored without awarding them a lucrative Try Assist (12 points) if they weren’t deserving of one.

But a try, as NRL fans well know, isn’t necessarily the work of just two or three people on the field. Sometimes many players contribute to how a try is scored.

Enter the brand new Try Contribution metric.

Worth four points, Try Contributions could be awarded to multiple players involved in a try-scoring play. In rare circumstances a player from the previous play could also pick up a Try Contribution if deemed worthy.

Any given try could include the try scorer (17 points), the player with the Try Assist (12 points) and one or more players who also helped create the try-scoring opportunity picking up the Try Contribution (4 points).

SuperCoach NRL editor Tom Sangster said the rule change would create a fairer game

“We feel this is a lot fairer for SuperCoach and it’s also going to stop a bit of conjecture about Try Assists - the subjectivity around those sort of things,” Sangster said.

Cam McInnes is the big loser in the shake up while Cody Walker picks up a swag of points.

“In some cases you’ll get four, maybe even five players with Try Contributions per play.

“The big winners are going to be the halves who create the space whereas in the past centres were getting a lot of Last Touch Assists just by catching the ball and passing.”

The rule change is sure to change how SuperCoaches pick their team, with data from the 2018 season showing halves are in line for a boost from the try contribution metric while hookers who had previously racked up big points for simply picking up a ball and passing will lose.

Cody Walker would have been the biggest winner if Try Contributions had been part of the game last year. An additional 70 points would have gone to the Rabbitohs five-eighth.

Dragons hooker Cam McInnes leads the hookers for possible points lost. His owners would have dropped by 42 over the course of the season.

StormTrooper96 wrote:

J. Jackson, RFM and Martin all played those 70 minutes around when the other was either out injured, on rep duties or in second grade. Plus throw in CHN now.
The FRF/ will most likely be made up of Tolman  and Napa.
I predict will line up something like this
8. Napa 9. Lichaa 10. Tolman 11. Jackson 12. Martin/RFM 13. Elliot 14. Fu Brown/JMK 15. CHN 16. RFM/Martin 17. Sue
So they will most likely be sharing those FRF minutes between Napa who will probably grab 45mins a game, Tolman, Sue and possibly Elliot could even slip in at FRF and Martin could go to lock.

Mind you I am a bit concerned he wont be able to keep up that effort if he plays big minutes week in week out but i wouldnt be surprised if he is a bit of a smokey this year.

I remember a few years ago the rooster had lots of injuries in the forwards to start the season and napa really stepped up and played some bigs mins and pumped out some good scores. He could be a better option than Tolman. Depending if hes in the right headspace

Honey Badger wrote:

I remember a few years ago the rooster had lots of injuries  in the forwards to start the season and napa really stepped up and played some bigs mins and pumped out some good scores. He could be a better option than Tolman. Depending if hes in the right headspace

You can call him Big Papa. At 355K and priced at around 24 off 41 minutes a game in 2018 if he lifts his work ethic and takes some of klemmers 56 minutes a game he could bump that up to a solid 35-40 points a game and make some decent coin early on.

TL;DR - Big Papa has a chance to make some good early coin.

Tolman averaged 48 in 2016, 48 in 2017 and when Woods left in round 16 Tolman averaged 49 for the remaining ten rounds. Tolman will average 48-49 in 2019. It might not quite be keeper status but I'd be okay with him getting me through to round 12 I think.

Mulvy wrote:Tolman averaged 48 in 2016, 48 in 2017 and when Woods left in round 16 Tolman averaged 49 for the remaining ten rounds. Tolman will average 48-49 in 2019. It might not quite be keeper status but I'd be okay with him getting me through to round 12 I think.

I agree I think he could go to that 48-49 point average, it will require either a sizable increase in minutes though. It does put him at that 10 point jump you like to see for a mid-tier cash cow, but it's borderline and highly unlikely he become a stand out gun. Not enough upside for me to take as a mid tier guy. Guys that are in his price bracket that I would rather (Note: Don't have stats in front of me to do a breakdown of them so some of these guys may not be options. D. Edwards (Okay not the same position but still.) C. Murray, J. McGuire, J. Bromwich, R. Sutton (If he starts).

https://coupler.foxsports.com.au/api/v1/article/amp/nrl/nrl-premiership/teams/eels/dylan-brown-is-earning-the-respect-of-the-eels-playing-group-through-a-gruelling-preseason/news-story/f0a7452b2a8bec9409d1fe8983b3dd8d

Might not be Salmon in the halves for the Eels, but with the Eels and Warrior most likely running rookie HLFs it will be a good year.

Fantasy Facebook groups becoming hard to read now, because 90% of posts are just random rate my team screenshots from mtb's site.

Milchy wrote:Have updated first page with positions, so you can check who has got/lost DPP.

Looking through these lists, there are no WFB/CTR's or WFB/HLF's in the game this year. These dual positions were very useful for doing the old Loopdy Loop.


I'm gonna make a big call and say that Fanhub have closed the AE Loophole