2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 31

Cap'n Ranta wrote:

I like the logic in trying to compare the two. But feel you are missing a key point of risk vs reward. Great to compare what you specifically think will happen but its important to consider the range of outcomes as well. Upside vs downside:

Rein:
- hasn't played that many minutes
- role is undefined (we hope 55-80 minutes)
- Average will be somewhere between 35-50 (53 minutes for 35 points last week - 2TBs included there are unexpected)
- Bench doesn't make a heap of sense (Wallace (55), Arrow (65), James (60), Proctor (80) and Rein (60?) playing large minutes with a 4 forward bench (leaves 140 mins for 4 guys and a Cartwright - <30 mins each)?
- Locked in for 3 games
- May get 1-3 more games (unlikely based on coaches comments and Peats fighting for an Origin spot)
- High initial BE - 24 (limits total cash made)

Gosie

- Average will be 30-35
- Very well defined role
- Salary cap, Hastings and injuries mean his spot is secure
- Plays 13
- Low BE this week (4)


When you consider these facts you end up with

Rein may make 63-144k in the next 3 weeks whereas Gosie will make 150 - 210k all up in 7 weeks (with no attacking stats whatsoever)
Gosie adds no scoring potential while Rein should give 0 -15 points per week on average improvement.

So:
Rein will be worth 60 - 195 points over the season
Gosie will be worth 110 - 147 points over the season

A lot of Gosies worth is in playing 13 but see how the risk with Gosie is massively reduced (good total points and cash). You are asking for an average of 42+ to beat the lower range of Gosiewski. With a high BE and more Peats injury news to come next week it feels like waiting has a lot of merit. Sure you'll miss 15 points at most but will avoid the downside of what could be a terrible decision.

This is a good post, and reflects several posts I've made over the last 2 seasons regarding risk-reward and how the individual fantasy coach's goal for the season will probably determine which option they take.

We are playing a game where nearly 100,000 other people are playing too. If your goal is to win the whole thing, most likely taking the safe option will not cut the mustard. One of those 100,000 at least will pull trigger on the correct combination of those risk-reward options and trump those that take the safe options everytime.

On the other hand, if your goal is to beat where you came last year, win your work comp, not come last in your work comp, beat your buddy or what ever, then the safer option will likely be the way to go.

It basically comes down to coach's risk profiles. Some will go one way, some the other. Important thing though is to have the facts (and assumptions) laid out there so you can make the best and most informed decision you can.

sajjos wrote:I was going to trade in Aitken for Cartwright ( yeah still got him) but then realised I can get MTaupau .

Taupau is averaging 5 points more than Aitken at the moment.  I understand he can have one or two below average games.

On the other hand Aitken might stop scoring tries.

Is there anything I'm missing in making this decision?

Yup.

One fills a spot that is notoriously difficult to get good scores out of, and the other a spot where there are a number of other guys who can put up 50+ averages.
Not saying that you should go one way or the other, but balancing the two options requires more than just looking at the averages of the two because there is additional value in nailing the right C.

deathbywarriors wrote:Any idea how long Capewell is likely to be starting for the Sharks? Assume it could only be as brief as a couple of weeks depending on when Gallen and Graham are back?

Graham on an extended bench and Bukuya back tells me he doesn't have long as a starter. Pass for me

TheBadger wrote:Hey all, few guys on my team have maxed out or are just plain shit and need to be moved. Just confused on what order to do them and who to start with.

Smith
Kikau, Arrow
JFH, RFM, Griffin
DCE, Maloney
Inglis, Isaako
Teddy, Thompson, Ponga

Cook, TPJ, Lichaa, Roshow
Lodge, Havilli, Nicholls, Kennar


Thinking of giving TPJ, Lodge, Roshow a weeks more chance.

Not to sure where to start with the others, slightly confused. Have 164K ITB and 27 trades left. Hopefully bringing in Gosie and maybe another cow or try a gun like Lolo, Fifita or Surgess.

Thoughts fellas? Thanks in advance.

Are you "THE" Badger? As in G Badger? As in the guy who like to blow the pea out of his whistle on a weekly basis? (side note, I change just one letter in the typing of that statement and it becomes a whole lot weirder)

If you are then be gone, stop screwing my team up on a weekly basis! However, I shall assume the best and that you aren't said little trollop and have a squizz at your team for you good sir!

Who do you feel is shit in your team? I mean, asides Inglis but that's stating the obvious! Sure, you have some guys that are peaking but all look to have been serviceable cows at the least so I'd say you've done pretty well bro. Seems you've also banked a couple of trades so good work there.

I would definitely hold on TPJ for a week (maybe even two if you're really lucky and he kickstarts himself again this week). Lodge I think is a sell whenever you don't have other bigger fires to deal with. Rochow I hadn't even looked at, his name hadn't come up in our weekly trade out list so he must be travelling ok. Looking into it a little further, a shit week last week but still an easily attainable BE, definitely a hold for this week.

I like that you've still got Nicholls? Did you hold onto him through the earlies or bring him in after? Either way, he's repaying the faith that people had in him.

Really, the only guys I'd be looking to get out of would be Griffin, Inglis and probably Lichaa at this point in time if I were you mate. You could do a double down this week, Griff out to Gos/Su'a etc to free up some cash and upgrade Inglis to a better CTR option. Or even just do a big cash grab by downgrading both. Plenty of people liking the looks of Rein for the next few weeks while Peats is out and could play him in your 17 seeing as one of your 14-17 will need to come in for Griff.

Plenty of options at the moment mate, just depends on what you fancy. Taking a risk or bringing in a gun?

This is my team for this week, not sure about Lodge and TPJ though....

Smith(c)
Arrow Kikau
RFM Surgess JTurbo
JMK Maloney
Mitchell Hiku
Teddy TTurbo Thompson

Int:
JFH Haivili Rein Gosi

Emg:
Lodge TPJ Croker Kennar

I'll actually have saved a singular trade this week with that line up but all of my emergencies concern me. Worried they'll start to lose value, especially after last week....

Croker about the only one I'd be concerned with. Don't stress mate, let it ride for a week.

I got about two hours to kill if anyone wants to throw a few things my way, happy to help out!

Are people passing on Sua because he's not a good enough scorer to be in their 17? Looks like he doesnt have good base stats.

TheBadger wrote:Hey all, few guys on my team have maxed out or are just plain shit and need to be moved. Just confused on what order to do them and who to start with.

Smith
Kikau, Arrow
JFH, RFM, Griffin
DCE, Maloney
Inglis, Isaako
Teddy, Thompson, Ponga

Cook, TPJ, Lichaa, Roshow
Lodge, Havilli, Nicholls, Kennar


Thinking of giving TPJ, Lodge, Roshow a weeks more chance.

Not to sure where to start with the others, slightly confused. Have 164K ITB and 27 trades left. Hopefully bringing in Gosie and maybe another cow or try a gun like Lolo, Fifita or Surgess.

Thoughts fellas? Thanks in advance.

Similar issues to me. I’m trading out Lichaa and Griffin, but I don’t have Inglis.
I’d probably put them in order of Lichaa, Inglis and Griffin as far as trade out priority. That also doesn’t take into account your trade in options, which are plenty this week.

Mighty Fishes wrote:Who is more urgent to trade out Griffin or Lichaa?

If I go Griffin I can trade him and NAS to Tolo and Sua with $0

Or if I trade NAS to tolo and trade out Lichaa I can get Rein and has some cash in the bank.

Any suggestions?

I quite like the Tolo & Mitch Rein combo

18:33:17

Mearcats wrote:Croker about the only one I'd be concerned with. Don't stress mate, let it ride for a week.

Cheers Mearcats! I constantly doubt my decisions doing this haha

Mearcats wrote:I got about two hours to kill if anyone wants to throw a few things my way, happy to help out!

I'm interested in why you are in China I spent about 7 years in Asia myself, visited China once, had a bloody great time!!

In terms of fantasy... we were throwing this one round on another thread but if you had to lock in a final 17 today who would be in it?

Mearcats wrote:I got about two hours to kill if anyone wants to throw a few things my way, happy to help out!

I’ll take up your offer.
This is my team, don’t think I’ve posted it up yet.

Cook
Arrow Kikau
RFM JFH Rochow
DCE Croker
Mitchell Hiku
Tedesco Ponga Thompson
Smith Lodge Lichaa Griffin
Nicholls Doueihi Isaako Murray

29 trades and 175k itb
I have my own ideas but interested to hear others.

StormTrooper96 wrote:Take this with a grain of salt as this is IMO.

Just read an article on NRL.com about TPJ and in the last couple paragraphs Alex Glenn says the main thing for TPJ is to stay humble and not get too big headed. Just IMO, maybe this could be a reason why Bennett pulled back his minutes last week along with resting his hammy. Maybe he wants to show TPJ that he can just as easily be replaced if he isn't stepping up each week.

reminds me of the game when he made the tackle into the goal post to save the game. Interviews straight after the match commentators were trying to talk him up but both McCullogh and Thaiday both separately said he needs to stay humble and McCullogh openly bagged him for lack if discipline in knocking on rather than speaking of any positives. 5 minutes later TPJ was being interviewed in the sheds talking about how he wanted all the trophies and to be the best blah blah

Assuming I am trading both Lichaa and Kennar out in the next 2 weeks, one for Rein this week and the other for a keeper centre next week is there any reason aside from depth I shouldn't trade Kennar first? Would allow me to choose between Su'a and Havili for last spot in the 17 aswell.

Mearcats this is for you.

Team post trades.

D. Cook
J. Arrow, V. Kikau
JFH, RFM, J. Su'a
D. Cherry-Evans, M. Mbye
P. Hiku, J. Isaako
J. Tedesco, K. Ponga, C. Thompson

C. Smith, S. Havili'i, J. Gosiewski, N. Brown

M. Lodge, JMK, C. Murray, P. Godinet

Thompson will become S. Johnson at some point. Meaning Mbye is a keeper. At the moment I am fine with my CTRs Isaako to Latrell the plan. The rest upgrades to the forwards and bench

Are we making the assumption that Matterson is a final 17 player?

I can just imagine a whitehead scenario striking.

If he is then I'd have to get him in this week.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Are we making the assumption that Matterson is a final 17 player?

I can just imagine a whitehead scenario striking.

If he is then I'd have to get him in this week.

I wouldn't be.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:Assuming I am trading both Lichaa and Kennar out in the next 2 weeks, one for Rein this week and the other for a keeper centre next week is there any reason aside from depth I shouldn't trade Kennar first? Would allow me to choose between Su'a and Havili for last spot in the 17 aswell.

Initial thoughts are that if you traded Lichaa out first that gives you more CITB and therefore more options next week if something changed (and things tend to in this game).

Not sure if that helps.

If the order in which you bank the cash makes no difference though, it would come down to depth and presumably you wouldn't be playing Kennar this week but would be playing Lichaa so I guess keeping Lichaa in the mix one more week would be the way forward.

I'm thinking of doing this trade:
Griffin out - D. Edwards

I would be placing Thompson in my emergencies & playing D. Edwards, Tedesco, Ponga as my wfb's.
My question is would you do this trade (Thompson out of 17) or is it better bringing in a gun forward like Matterson for example instead of Edwards (Thompson in 17). Cheers.