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    The Betting Thread

    Honeysett
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    Post by Honeysett on Thu Jul 18, 2019 7:43 pm

    I've gone a little YOLO same game multi so I can stomach tonight's game.
    First try to not be converted.
    Broncos by 9+
    Broncos win first half.
    Oates any time try scorer
    Overall points 39+
    Broncos 4 or more tries
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    Post by Verbal Kint on Thu Jul 18, 2019 7:49 pm

    @Honeysett wrote:I've gone a little YOLO same game multi so I can stomach tonight's game.
    First try to not be converted.
    Broncos by 9+
    Broncos win first half.
    Oates any time try scorer
    Overall points 39+
    Broncos 4 or more tries

    I really like that combo mate
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    Post by Honeysett on Thu Jul 18, 2019 7:53 pm

    @Verbal Kint wrote:

    I really like that combo mate

    Paying $24. The big one is the first try not to be converted I feel.
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    Post by Verbal Kint on Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:10 pm

    Tick that one off!
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    Post by Honeysett on Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:31 pm

    @Verbal Kint wrote:Tick that one off!

    Not liking the way this game is going though
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    Post by Verbal Kint on Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:36 pm

    @Honeysett wrote:

    Not liking the way this game is going though

    Yeah, both teams looks a bit shit. Hopefully the second half delivers for you
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    Post by Honeysett on Thu Jul 18, 2019 9:04 pm

    @Verbal Kint wrote:

    Yeah, both teams looks a bit shit. Hopefully the second half delivers for you

    Saying that I just need the same half plus and one extra try and it's a winning bet. Provided Oates scores.
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    Post by Verbal Kint on Thu Jul 18, 2019 9:09 pm

    @Honeysett wrote:

    Saying that I just need the same half plus and one extra try and it's a winning bet. Provided Oates scores.

    I've been cheering the bet on. Hate both teams so no interest otherwise haha
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    Post by Honeysett on Thu Jul 18, 2019 9:11 pm

    @Verbal Kint wrote:

    I've been cheering the bet on. Hate both teams so no interest otherwise haha

    Keep cheering mate you're a good luck charm it seems haha
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    Post by Verbal Kint on Thu Jul 18, 2019 9:11 pm

    Oooooohhhhhh
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    Post by Verbal Kint on Thu Jul 18, 2019 9:11 pm

    Fist pumped that Very Happy
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    Post by Honeysett on Thu Jul 18, 2019 9:24 pm

    Literally went the total points as overs because Staggs was 12/14 going to the game. And he's left 8 points out there which is incredibly frustrating.
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    Post by Honeysett on Thu Jul 18, 2019 9:56 pm

    Can't be too upset, the game went exactly how I thought it would go its just Staggs couldn't kick. 1 leg lost so I got my money back in bonus bets
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    Post by No Worries on Fri Jul 19, 2019 7:33 am

    Anyone get on Sandpaper Steve paying $24. The name got posted on a tipping page I'm on and didn't see it till the next day.
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Wed Aug 07, 2019 6:47 am

    Hey guys., just popping in to post my Mitre 10 cup picks for the season.

    Im a little out of touch with lower grade rugby these days but I've had a look through the squads and I feel there are two teams worth putting money on.

    The biggest value for me is Auckland. They have a strong squad, with quality players in key positions and are the defending champions. I dont see any of their top guys getting a surprising call up to the ABs, so their squad looks good to go. I've loaded up at $5 and will add to that as the season progresses.

    Canterbury will always be a contender but at $2.80 Im not that keen. Their squad will be quite young as is desimated with ABs gone. I'd probably rank them as 3rd favourites, but their history and the amount of backing they get at the tab probably has led to them grabbing the favourite tag with the bookies.

    The other huge contender is Tasman. Their squad is massive! They are probably the favourite IM O, but Im holding off on backing them too hard until the final ABs squad gets named. They have a couple players on the fringes in Frizzel, Squire, Perry, and even Will Jordan. I suspect they will lose at least one of Squiire/Frizzel but If they just lose the one player, I will back them very hard at $3.25.

    In the Championship I've backed last years runners up Otago. They have a nice easy run of home games defending the shield to begin the year. I see them making the semis comfortably and probably a home one at that. Then its probably a coin flip for the final $4.33 seems good money. I've also taken a small nibble on BOP at $7.5 who look the best of the rest (outside of Taranaki who are way too short at $2.4).

    Finally, I've put a small bet on Waikato to hold the shield at the end of the year. Looking at the draw there are probably 34 teams in it: Canterbury, Auckland, Taranaki and Waikato. For Waikato to hold it Otago would have to fend off Taranaki But then they get the next crack. Decent odds at $6 for only a few games to fall into place.



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    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Fri Aug 09, 2019 10:02 am

    Interestingly since I posted the above (and without a game being played) Auckland is in from $5 to $4.

    Tasman is now the favourite from $3.25 to $2.8

    Canterbury has drifted to $3
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Fri Aug 09, 2019 10:15 am

    Also, picking Tasman to win comfortably vs Wellington take 6.5 points to be safe, but I think they could go 13+ without too much hassle.

    EDIT: Tasman won this one by 37 points. I took points starts up to 16.5 points at $3.4, which I'd gone a little higher... Start loading up on these guys to win the whole thing! Im not sure anyone will be able to stay with them, they looked absolutely dominant today!
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    Post by No Worries on Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:30 am

    Must thank you. Put the $50 bonus bet on the line which was 7.5 over here and had a dabble on the 13+
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:20 am

    @No Worries wrote:Must thank you. Put the $50 bonus bet on the line which was 7.5 over here and had a dabble on the 13+
    Nice, glad u got on. I've got a couple leans this week, just waiting on team lists.

    OK so a few team lists are in.

    Im on Auckland -6.5 v Northland - Auckland jumped out early against a good North Harbour side in the wet. Game ended in a tie but Auckland will be better for the run and have an AB coming off the bench this week. I actually think they'll beat Northland by double figures comfortably but will take the start.

    Im waiting on the teams for NH v Counties but I've got on early cause SBW got named in the ABs so is a huge out from Counties who lost to Taranaki last week. Im not aware of any outs for NH so I think they win pretty easily as well NH -6.5.

    Other leans, teams dependent are Taranaki & Tasman

    I'd avoid the HB v Wellington and BOP v Waikato games!
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:19 pm

    Forgot to say, my strategy for Mitre 10 Cup games is to find the value, make sure you place most of your money on a line you are comfortable with, but also, these games can blow out. So in a game like tonight, take the -8.5 points start, even tease it down a bit but its always worth chuck 5% of your balance on a blow out, assuming you think the game has that potential.

    This comp is not like the NFL or even the NRL - teams get blown out all the time. And when they do, good teams can quickly put 30-40 points on another!

    Tasman last week if you'd taken them by 30 you would have gotten $6 or so, same tonight in the Auckland game who just won big.

    I've back NH mostly around the 6 point start but I'll have a few bob on them to win 13+, 20+, and 25+ as well.

    Lastly the NZ bookies are fucking useless. They'll catch on a bit as the season progresses but this comp is one of the few they actually have to make their own lines. Mostly they just get their reads of international bookies! Tonight for example there is NO WAY Auckland should have been paying what they did. Easy to say in hindsight I know, but it really is easy money.

    GL

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