GreenSchist Team Post

Hynes?

Zigged when you should of zigged and came up trumps!

Did you captain him?

Great work mate

Hynes a stroke of genius!

Hopefully Bird and Smith perform well and you can get back close to ET (if not take back your place on top!)

Rd 9
Overall Rank/Score = 3/8329
Round Rank/Score = 917/973
CAPTAIN: Hynes (95 Points)
Squad Value = $13.20M
Trades Remaining: 17

973 points for the week, in large part due to my last minute trade to bring in Hynes and captain him. Made the move as I didn't trust Cleary as Captain due to his lingering injury and the forecast wet weather.
Worked out well and managed to survive having Haas on the bench.

I'm managing to hold steady at the top, with this being my 5th consecutive week inside the Top 5. Shout out to both ET and Booze who are both doing fantastically well right there behind me. The only negative is that I continue to burn through my trades, with none banked and that's not looking to change this week either.
Gonna try lose some dead weight and offload Couchman. Forecasting my bye plans, both Sele and Walsh are likely trade outs by Round 13, so I'm pulling the trigger early to enable JDB. Tossed up between him and Bird last week, with the intention of grabbing the other before 13, and potentially mad the wrong call. Not costly, correcting that now. Sele out is a big call but I'm happy with it. No doubt will go against the consensus but I just can't hold him through Origin as I need the roster spot and with him looking more likely for Origin (and Ponga less so) sacrifices need to be made. He also becomes surplus to requirements with my intention to bring in Bula.

OUT: Couch, Sele, Walsh

IN: JDB, Tatola, Bula

A Hosking to Hopgood trade for Round 13 is the only remaining trade I have planned before Origin, which will leave me at 13 remaining. Not ideal but I am comfortable with where my team is at. Being smarter with my trade post Origin should leave me in good stead for a strong run home.

Current team (pre trades):

JMK
Haas, Ford, Sele
Hosking, Fifita,
Hynes (C), Cleary
Bird, Lemuelu,
Manu, Bula, Tedesco

Preston, SJ, Walsh, B.Smith,

Couchman, S.Luke, Oloapu, Miller

GreenSchist wrote:Rd 9
Overall Rank/Score = 3/8329
Round Rank/Score = 917/973
CAPTAIN: Hynes (95 Points)
Squad Value = $13.20M
Trades Remaining: 17

973 points for the week, in large part due to my last minute trade to bring in Hynes and captain him. Made the move as I didn't trust Cleary as Captain due to his lingering injury and the forecast wet weather.
Worked out well and managed to survive having Haas on the bench.

I'm managing to hold steady at the top, with this being my 5th consecutive week inside the Top 5. Shout out to both ET and Booze who are both doing fantastically well right there behind me. The only negative is that I continue to burn through my trades, with none banked and that's not looking to change this week either.
Gonna try lose some dead weight and offload Couchman. Forecasting my bye plans, both Sele and Walsh are likely trade outs by Round 13, so I'm pulling the trigger early to enable JDB. Tossed up between him and Bird last week, with the intention of grabbing the other before 13,  and potentially mad the wrong call. Not costly, correcting that now. Sele out is a big call but I'm happy with it. No doubt will go against the consensus but I just can't hold him through Origin as I need the roster spot and with him looking more likely for Origin (and Ponga less so) sacrifices need to be made. He also becomes surplus to requirements with my intention to bring in Bula.

OUT: Couch, Sele, Walsh

IN: JDB, Tatola, Bula

A Hosking to Hopgood trade for Round 13 is the only remaining trade I have planned before Origin, which will leave me at 13 remaining. Not ideal but I am comfortable with where my team is at. Being smarter with my trade post Origin should leave me in good stead for a strong run home.

Current team (pre trades):

JMK
Haas, Ford, Sele
Hosking, Fifita,
Hynes (C), Cleary
Bird, Lemuelu,
Manu, Bula, Tedesco

Preston, SJ, Walsh, B.Smith,

Couchman, S.Luke, Oloapu, Miller

Good looking team, can't argue with any of this based on how you are running this year
Maybe the Tatola trade given his injury troubles but he is an upgrade on playing sele so worth the gamble

Contrastinghobby wrote:

Good looking team, can't argue with any of this based on how you are running this year
Maybe the Tatola trade given his injury troubles but he is an upgrade on playing sele so worth the gamble

Cheers mate!
I think I can afford to wait on Tatola, especially with the news his father passed. I think it’s more than reasonable to expect that he’s a late scratch this week, in light of that terrible news. If that’s the case, Sele likely sees an increased role as well.

As mentioned above, Couch and Walsh are likely outs this week. I think Bula is one lock but getting cold feet on JDB post TLT.
Obviously a lot of uncertainty around Origin selections atm, with Horse, Hopgood, JDB all being thrown around as potential options. A low BE for all three guys means the time is ripe to bring them in. These trades may appear sideways but they are critical to my bye planning. As such, I have a few options.

Option 1:
Walsh + Preston—> (Two of) JDB/Horse/Hopgood

Option 2:
Walsh + Hosking —> (Two of) JDB/Horse/Hopgood (with an eye to bring in Tatola in the future)

So is it Option 1 or 2, and which 2 of Hopgood, Horse and JDB to bring in.

I’m usually quite confident with my trades but genuinely stuck on this one and would greatly appreciate peoples 2c.

GreenSchist wrote:As mentioned above, Couch and Walsh are likely outs this week. I think Bula is one lock but getting cold feet on JDB post TLT.
Obviously a lot of uncertainty around Origin selections atm, with Horse, Hopgood, JDB all being thrown around as potential options. A low BE for all three guys means the time is ripe to bring them in. These trades may appear sideways but they are critical to my bye planning. As such, I have a few options.

Option 1:
Walsh + Preston—> (Two of) JDB/Horse/Hopgood

Option 2:
Walsh + Hosking —> (Two of) JDB/Horse/Hopgood (with an eye to bring in Tatola in the future)

So is it Option 1 or 2, and which 2 of Hopgood, Horse and JDB to bring in.

I’m usually quite confident with my trades but genuinely stuck on this one and would greatly appreciate peoples 2c.

I'm not a Hosking owner but I think I slightly prefer Preston at current prices. So I'd lean option 2.
I'm a JDB owner but after TLT I'd probably lean towards Horse and Hopgood.

I prefer selling Preston to Hosking and JDB at prop rather than lock has me a bit spooked.

His career average at lock (54.1 in 62.9 mins) is a lot better than his career numbers at prop (45.6 in 54.4 mins). I can't see him continuing to play 80 with Su'a and Bird also eating up big mins.

I'd agree with the above and rank them Hopgood, Hors, JDB in that order.

Although given our respective ranks you should probably trust your gut and do the opposite of whatever I say

Fwiw it's worth I'd sell Preston over Hosking too, but as mrbownstone mentioned, our comparative ranks make any advice seem silly but even so, option 1 with Horse and Hoppy looks good to me

Firstly I see no chance of Hopgood horse or jdb playing origin, so I wouldn’t worry about that

Hopgood has the highest ceiling, best bye schedule, playing all the major byes, and has dual, so he is the primo option

So that leave jdb vs horsbruh, I have been super surprised that both of these players have been getting such huge minutes, if I had to guess I’d say horse is the one who’s longer minutes is likely to continue, just because the lock role lends itself to big mins and dragons prop woes mean de belin will spend much time there

Jdb has the less spectacular scoring, and is more consistent, horsbruh might have the occasional error strewn or lower one, but has the higher ceiling of the two,

I think horse has more money to make and is cheaper right now so that entices me

They are similar so go with whichever one you like watching most, I’m trading in horse this week and have slight preference to him over jdb, but there’s nothing in the data that I can see that makes him better, I think I might be influenced by the fact that Canberra are the better team and have an slightly easier schedule, so will win more games (it’s hard for de belin to get points standing behind his posts)

One final thing is hooks days are numbered, what will the new coach do when he comes in and dragons seasons implodes, Ricky is somewhat untrustworthy but horses last 3 games have been pretty consistent

Who to trade out? Hosking or Preston

Both have high break evens, both average well, Hosking is less owned in the top teams, 77% to 93%, Hosking plays for the better team, but bulldogs have shown they are capable on their day and have an easier 3 game schedule,

I own both and will face this conundrum in a couple of rds

I think the fact Hosking plays for panthers would lead me to keep him, though I do get a nagging job security issue with him, garner and Martin still exist and salmon seems to be spelling one of the 2nd rowers every game, maybe it’s hoskings turn this week

Preston might go gang busters in the next 3 games

Flip a coin, who do you prefer, I’d slightly head toward trading Preston out, it’s razor thin

GarethEllisismyDad wrote:Firstly I see no chance of Hopgood horse or jdb playing origin, so I wouldn’t worry about that

Hopgood has the highest ceiling, best bye schedule, playing all the major byes, and has dual, so he is the primo option

So that leave jdb vs horsbruh, I have been super surprised that both of these players have been getting such huge minutes, if I had to guess I’d say horse is the one who’s longer minutes is likely to continue, just because the lock role lends itself to big mins and dragons prop woes mean de belin will spend much time there

Jdb has the less spectacular scoring, and is more consistent, horsbruh might have the occasional error strewn or lower one, but has the higher ceiling of the two,

I think horse has more money to make and is cheaper right now so that entices me

They are similar so go with whichever one you like watching most, I’m trading in horse this week and have slight preference to him over jdb, but there’s nothing in the data that I can see that makes him better, I think I might be influenced by the fact that Canberra are the better team and have an slightly easier schedule, so will win more games (it’s hard for de belin to get points standing behind his posts)

One final thing is hooks days are numbered, what will the new coach do when he comes in and dragons seasons implodes, Ricky is somewhat untrustworthy but horses last 3 games have been pretty consistent

Who to trade out? Hosking or Preston

Both have high break evens, both average well, Hosking is less owned in the top teams, 77% to 93%, Hosking plays for the better team, but bulldogs have shown they are capable on their day and have an easier 3 game schedule,

I own both and will face this conundrum in a couple of rds

I think the fact Hosking plays for panthers would lead me to keep him, though I do get a nagging job security issue with him, garner and Martin still exist and salmon seems to be spelling one of the 2nd rowers every game, maybe it’s hoskings turn this week

Preston might go gang busters in the next 3 games

Flip a coin, who do you prefer, I’d slightly head toward trading Preston out, it’s razor thin

Thanks Gaz, always appreciate your feedback!
Thanks also to all you others who have provided valuable insight. It's made a big difference and I can process my trades a lot clearer now as a result.

Gaz, I hope you're right about Origin. I guess there are a lot of options atm so worth punting on these guys who are likely Origin smokeys at best.
I sold Hopgood last month but an Eels player with DPP is just too perfect for my bye planning. Low BE means it's a wasted trade at worst, and not likely to lose value. Best case is I keep him as my Mid/Edge cover till seasons end.

I was all set on JDB but really going sour on the Dragons and that lineup shake up. His role at prop isn't ideal and there's bound to be a reduction in minutes. Means I'm more likely to go for the cheaper and apparently more secure option in Horse. The saved cash means I have a little bit more flexibility to make moves leading into Round 16.

Regarding Hosking vs Preston, I'm locked in on Preston as the trade out. Hosking has the higher upside and better role at the Panthers, and as such, I'm happy to ride him a few more weeks to see what happens. I also like the tidbit i heard on the forum a few weeks back about Cleary really enjoying their combination. At this stage, he may be a trade out to either Matterson or Cotter for Round 13, assuming at least one of them misses Origin, although we shall see how dire my Rd 13 roster looks at the time.
Had a quick look at Preston's stats and I was really disappointed with the lack of offloads and low running meters, combined with moderate tackles. He may be close to maxed out and could easily lose cash this week with an elevated BE.

As such,

OUT: Walsh, Preston, Couchman

IN: Horse, Hopgood and Bula

Soni Luke on the chopping block pre Round 13


So team is:

JMK
Haas, Horse, Hopgood,
Fifita, Hosking,
Cleary, Hynes (C)
Bird, Lemuelu
Manu, Teddy, Bula

SJ, Ford, Cheese, Miller

I.Katoa, Sele, Oloapu, Luke

Thanks again all for the much valuable help

mrbrownstone wrote:I prefer selling Preston to Hosking and JDB at prop rather than lock has me a bit spooked.

His career average at lock (54.1 in 62.9 mins) is a lot better than his career numbers at prop (45.6 in 54.4 mins). I can't see him continuing to play 80 with Su'a and Bird also eating up big mins.

I'd agree with the above and rank them Hopgood, Hors, JDB in that order.

Although given our respective ranks you should probably trust your gut and do the opposite of whatever I say

Really good insight with the minutes and score variance - Thanks for that.

How's your rank going?
I feel like mine is due to luck and a very trade happy strategy so far. Fully expecting it to fall back during and after Origin.

StuDogg101 wrote:Fwiw it's worth I'd sell Preston over Hosking too, but as mrbownstone mentioned, our comparative ranks make any advice seem silly but even so, option 1 with Horse and Hoppy looks good to me

Good call Stu, lock it in!

Does Hopgood not scare you with Eels forward lottery? Guess he’s a better chance of minutes with RCG injured?

Shady2K wrote:Does Hopgood not scare you with Eels forward lottery? Guess he’s a better chance of minutes with RCG injured?

Yes, it does. I have more confidence in him maintaining a 65-70 min role going forward tho, than I do think Davey or Greig have big minute roles in them. Time will tell whether it’s a value move but I’m happy taking it as a by planning move only, even if he makes no money. I really can’t see him dropping down from where he is priced atm. He’s valued at about mid 40’s, and as a young rookie, I think it’s just taken BA time to figure out how to best utilise him going forward.

GreenSchist wrote:
Yes, it does. I have more confidence in him maintaining a 65-70 min role going forward tho, than I do think Davey or Greig have big minute roles in them. Time will tell whether it’s a value move but I’m happy taking it as a by planning move only, even if he makes no money. I really can’t see him dropping down from where he is priced atm. He’s valued at about mid 40’s, and as a young rookie, I think it’s just taken BA time to figure out how to best utilise him going forward.

Yeah it’s a tricky one. If I had more trades I’d probably bring Hopgood in but not being 100% sure on it means I might hold. Him or Matto would come in at some stage

Or could go straight to Fifita

Round 10
Overall Rank/Score = 2/9303
Round Rank/Score = 4723/969
CAPTAIN: Hynes (38 Points)
Squad Value = $13.48M
Trades Remaining: 14

969 points equates to a slightly down week for me, in large part due to Captain Hynes but still good enough for my 6th consecutive week inside the Top 5. If i'd known Cleary was going to kick this week, I likely would have had it on him instead but oh well. Easy to say that in hindsight.

Trades were:

OUT: Couch, Preston, Walsh

IN: Horse, Hopgood, Bula

Happy enough with the output of my trade ins. Hopgood and Horse did as expected. A slight concern with Horse's decreased minutes, will see how that plays out. Hopefully Ricky doesn't Sticky the whole situation. Would have loved to get JDB in with his continued output, but couldn't justify both Horse and him (hence Hopgood). Bula looks so good. Glad I cashed down to him and trusted him in the starting 13.

Gonna be a little tough this week with the Phin's bye, really gonna test my depth with JMK, Lemmy and Katoa all out.
Fingers crossed Oloapu's role increases and B.Smith is all good.

I'd like to sit on my 14 trades for the next two weeks. Bide my time and cash down Luke and possibly I.Katoa if/when something pops up.

Nice breakdown again as always
You look well setup going forward, been setting the benchmark for a while for the rest to chase so keep it up

Didn’t get any bites in the main thread.

In a bit of a pickle*, if the masses would be so kind to help.

I'm selling Teddy over the bye period. As such, which option do people prefer?

1. Teddy -> Drinkwater - Hold Ford
2. Ford -> Drinkwater - trade Teddy in 2 weeks, preferably for a Edge (likely also bringing in Tohu/or Cotter for Hosking)


*also enjoying a pickle juice sour to celebrate my birthday, before I head away on a 5 night fishing charter. Fingers crossed for no fantasy drama while I’m away

Sell ford for drink water now, he misses next two weeks and cows looked great last week and have decent next few fixtures

Then sell teddy to ford for bye rounds, ford has dual and good bye coverage (alternatively select edge of your choice)

I’ve done ford to drinky this week and have teddy currently too but will ship him when origin begins

I don’t see the point of holding ford two weeks, I’m open to hearing reasons though if anyone else has convictions

(And happy birthday)