SnatchPato 2023 Campaign

Alrighty thanks for tuning in fam.

4th year of fantasy and following results of 30,000th - 9,000th - 3,000th I'm antinicpating and striving for a top 1000 finish this year.

My current side which I'm liking the look of is as follows with 46k ITB:

Smith
Haas Tapine Sutton
EButcher Hopgood
Cleary Doueihi
Alamoti HSS
Miller To'o CNK

Boyd Ford EKatoa Uto
Doorey Warbrick IKatoa Talau

Quick rundown as to why I'm picking each player:

Spoiler:

Would love any feedback on the team, point out anyone I've missed, anyone I have analysed incorrectly etc. I make blunders at the the start of every year, and don't expect this one to be any different. Would love the help from you weapons (especially you TheWeapons - as you are the most weapon-y).

Cheers and good luck to all

To'o and Perham the only ones I'm not sold on, otherwise looks very solid.

On To'o, I just worry PVL-ball is the outlier. If you look at his averages by season:

2019: 41.3
2020: 42.3
2021: 58.6
2022: 40.6

Don't think he's a terrible pick, worst case he's maybe 2-3 points undervalued with a high upside, just one to be aware of.

mrbrownstone wrote:To'o and Perham the only ones I'm not sold on, otherwise looks very solid.

On To'o, I just worry PVL-ball is the outlier. If you look at his averages by season:

2019: 41.3
2020: 42.3
2021: 58.6
2022: 40.6

Don't think he's a terrible pick, worst case he's maybe 2-3 points undervalued with a high upside, just one to be aware of.

Yeah cheers for that.

I'm just thinking that in PVL ball he was on the left wing (unless I'm miss-remembering) which seems to be his (and the Panthers) preferred side. Also without May To'o might increase his MG back to around the 200 mark. At the end of the day though, I love his play-style, he seems like a very wholesome guy, and I love that.

Perham probably a dud, but don't love AKP/Hunt much more. Just figure he might have the best job security.

My main concerns for my team is missing Miller who I have a bit of FOMO over, and no Katoa/Garner who could rocket out of the blocks with a try or two.

Thanks for commenting btw and welcome to the dream team

Quick update - Turbo out, Miller in. Perham out, TMM in (should plod along to a low 30s average and has valuable DPP).

243k ITB which is a lot but will give me big round 2 flexibility.

Update 2.0 (2:54pm)
Loiero > EKatoa
TMM > CNK

(CNK replacing Warbrick in the run on side).

Snatchpato wrote:
Yeah cheers for that.

I'm just thinking that in PVL ball he was on the left wing (unless I'm miss-remembering) which seems to be his (and the Panthers) preferred side. Also without May To'o might increase his MG back to around the 200 mark. At the end of the day though, I love his play-style, he seems like a very wholesome guy, and I love that.

Perham probably a dud, but don't love AKP/Hunt much more. Just figure he might have the best job security.

My main concerns for my team is missing Miller who I have a bit of FOMO over, and no Katoa/Garner who could rocket out of the blocks with a try or two.

Thanks for commenting btw and welcome to the dream team

Fair enough mate, that all makes sense and at the end of the day picking the guy who you enjoy watching is the right way to play the game.

Okay so a decent start to the round with some ups, some downs, but thankfully nothing catastrophic. 804 points, rank 16646.

Ups:
- Doueihi scoring well on Sunday
- Owning Haas for the first time ever
- CNK scoring really well for a cheap WFB, somewhat the same with Miller
- No big injuries

Downs:
- POD selection To'o not getting the role I imagined nor the involvement I wanted.
- Dud centres (though most would have the same issue)
- Missing Carty's initial price rises

Plan for Week 2:
Last year I missed Taylan May thinking he'd either be a flash in the pan, or simply not score well enough over the long run, and as captain hindsight will tell us, I was wrong on both counts. I don't want to be left behind the same way with Carty this year. Even another 3 games averaging only 40 nets him +150k, seems like a reasonable choice.
To'o really didn't have the role I picked him to have. He was involved, sure, but only at a moderate level. I was hoping for 2021 To'o, back on the left edge, capitalising on the Panthers strong side. Instead he was on the right edge, and even so, the Panthers looked clunky. They have a bye in round 3 so it seems like a reasonable out. I hate to do it, but it was a pretty poor choice in hindsight.
Trade 1: To'o > Carty

With the above trade I have a fair bit of coin in the bank. I'm sure BS9 will be a thing at some stage this year, but I really feel like it's not going to be for a while. The Roosters looked really poor on the weekend, and have been a bit decimated in the forwards. It wouldn't surprise me to see BS9 play a bit more BS13, which isn't ideal for his attacking stats (tries etc). Robson on the other hand looked outstanding on the weekend. Despite being up in the putrid Townsville weather, he looked like he was playing in 22 degree weather. He was running rings around the Raiders middle forwards, and easily scored a no-try 70+. Outstanding hooker, and one I was devastated to miss last year (actually went to trade him in during round 13 but missed lockout by about 15 seconds).
Trade 2: Smith > Robson

Those two trades bring in a strong cash cow for cash gen, and also bring in a season long keeper with a great bye schedule. It avoids some issues in rounds 3 and 4 being the Panthers and Rooster's byes, which should mean I can field decent teams in those rounds without worry. Finally, despite loving watching BS9 and To'o play, their cash gen has stalled and is likely to go backwards without some outlier games, so it seems like a solid play to get them out now. Still love them both so will be watching them closely through rounds 6-12, I'm hoping I wont be too proud to bring them back in if the buy signals are there.

Does anyone have any thoughts?

Team for round 2 below. Happy with overall depth, just wary of extremely limited backline cover for this round. Will be looking to rectify that next week and likely bring in Thompson or similar for an underperforming player and more backline cover. 123k ITB - so plenty of wiggle room. (Guns)

Robson
Haas Sutton Tapine
Carty ButchEr
Doueihi Cleary
Alamoti HSS
Warbrick Miller CNK

Trindall Boyd EKatoa Hopgood
Ford Uto Doorey Talau

Not willing to give Smith another 2 games?

I like Trade 1 a bit more. To'o can come good although there was little encouragement the other night. He and Panthers should get better, you'd think.

great looking side, and great depth,

i really like both trades and the reasoning behind them,

whilst people fuss and worry about brandon smiths role on a week to week basis and how many points he gets, you have a gun hooker who will massively outscore him every week

id strongly consider improving your backline next week, either centre or wfb, you have so much money tied up with UTO in emergencies and the cash in the bank, admittedly there are no standoutr centres and wfb that one would suggest just yet, but im sure by next lockout some options will emerge

nice tracker and good luck!

Both trades look pretty good mate. Like you said one should give you pretty solid cash generation for a few weeks if all goes well, hopefully Mattersons return doesn’t effect him to much. 

Robson is a gun, bit pricey for me though I’d probably give Mahoney a shot with the discount but that’s because I’m a cheap bastard haha.

I’ve noticed you’ve decided not to touch your CTR combo this week, which I’ve been fixated on since lockout. Are you just delaying that decision or are you hoping they both come good?

superbucks wrote:Not willing to give Smith another 2 games?

I like Trade 1 a bit more. To'o can come good although there was little encouragement the other night. He and Panthers should get better, you'd think.  

I considered giving Smith more time, because I love the way he plays and definitely see his value, just a the minor injury and match fitness are concerns. I guess the Roosters losing MID depth, but having very reliable hooker depth in Turpin also means he hasn't got any big minute hooker games coming up any time soon.
And yeah I reckon To'o will go great this year, probably tonight just to put egg on my face! However I really need cash gen at this stage, and Robson should outscore him easily even if To'o gets a double!

GarethEllisismyDad wrote:great looking side, and great depth,

i really like both trades and the reasoning behind them,

whilst people fuss and worry about brandon smiths role on a week to week basis and how many points he gets, you have a gun hooker who will massively outscore him every week

id strongly consider improving your backline next week, either centre or wfb, you have so much money tied up with UTO in emergencies and the cash in the bank, admittedly there are no standoutr centres and wfb that one would suggest just yet, but im sure by next lockout some options will emerge

nice tracker and good luck!

I'm really hoping so mate! I've never had a gun hooker this early in a season before, so really hoping I make the right call and the eye test on Robson + his scores at the back end of last year hold up. Fingers crossed he has another great season.
Yeah I really want Thompson, reckon he has a great base (bit of a To'o 2.0 at 200k cheaper), I just chose Carty over him because Carty has a much smaller cash gen window. Will likely trade an underperformer to Thompson next week, and potentially even gun up in the CTR with Bird if he shows decent signs (also assuming I have a different underperforming gun to trade out).

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Both trades look pretty good mate. Like you said one should give you pretty solid cash generation for a few weeks if all goes well, hopefully Mattersons return doesn’t effect him to much. 

Robson is a gun, bit pricey for me though I’d probably give Mahoney a shot with the discount but that’s because I’m a cheap bastard haha.

I’ve noticed you’ve decided not to touch your CTR combo this week, which I’ve been fixated on since lockout. Are you just delaying that decision or are you hoping they both come good?

Definitely considered Mahoney, think I'm paranoid as he burned me a bit last year. Will keep an eye on him because I'm not afraid of having a brothel of a team.
Yeah will leave that dumpster fire until next week. Figure most will have one if not both of those guys, so no sense worrying about fixing it. Who knows, perhaps a try for each this week

All things considered, round 2 was a success, 809 points, round rank 9,412, overall rank 5,183 (+11,463).

Ups:
- Tapine getting back to gun form. 63 in a game where he didn't seem to do a whole lot, that's why we got him.
- Mid-range cows continuing to do their thing: Sutton (48), Carty (48), EKatoa (63), Uto (52)
- Ford + Talau were out of the 17 so didn't have to cop their low scores
- 'Dud' centres doing just fine (combining for 75)
- No major injuries

Downs:
- Talau, Ford, CNK all out with head knocks
- Captained Cleary (37)
- New gun Robson lowest score since late 2021, and second lowest ever in 80 minutes


Plan for Week 3:

The biggest concern for me this week is not having a WFB3. Losing CNK and Talau to head knocks means I am forced to trade to play with 17. I don't really rate Talau (just started with him for cheap cover), and with the mail that he broke his nose he might be out for longer than one week. Thompson is a player who I really liked the look of after round 1, and nearly started with. I only avoided him because there was a chance he would be dropped for Milne when he returned, and I figured his price wouldn't get out of control. Despite his bad game last week (who wouldn't have had one after the bombs Cleary was putting up) I still like him for the following reasons:
1. He's cheap at $329k
2. He's DPP (evidently a valuable addition to my side)
3. He gets a decent amount of points in base (RM + TBs) due to his size and play style
4. Souths have shown they are willing to attack down their right edge more (especially in round 1) and he should be the beneficiary of some of that.
Trade 1: Talau > Thompson (Possible due to $123k ITB)

I had debated a lot with myself this week whether I make this second trade. I really like the potential that Egan Butcher has for the Roosters. He likes to tackle (often moving into the middle on defence when the middle forwards are tiring) and once the Roosters find their attack, he will be the beneficiary of many left edge points. I can 100% see him averaging 50+ by the end of the year and staying in my team the entire season as a cut-priced edge keeper. Unfortunately, a few things are influencing me to trade him out:
1. Preston seems like a must have. If he averages a (very) conservative 40 over the next 3 rounds, he will make ~ $160k. A 50 average would net him ~ $210k.
2. In the last couple of seasons I've had bad cash generation in the early rounds because I was fixated on "using my trades wisely" and "not running out". Many discussions on the open forum have shown me that the first 1-5 rounds are not the time to be saving trades, but rather the time to be generating cash.
3. Butcher would need to average 60 over the next 3 games to even make $100k in price rises. Clearly, Preston is the better cash gen option.
4. Butcher has a bye next week, so really he would need 4 weeks to make that $100k (best case).
Trade 2: Butcher > Preston

These two trades leave me with $279k ITB for future upgrades. Neither trade brings in a gun unless Preston somehow manages to average 50+ for the season (wouldn't that be nice), so the gun status of the side remains the same. The team balance remains the same with a CTR/WFB > CTR/WFB and EDG > EDG, however I'm much more confident playing Thompson in my 17 than I would be Talau. With CNK back next week, I can use ITT as cover, or run him in the CTR instead of HSS.

Does anyone have any thoughts?

Team for round 3 below. With the rumours around Doueihi not playing this weekend, I could be playing with 17 at best. I'll need some luck this round to not only get a decent score, but to get through the round relatively unscathed. Next week I'll have Cleary coming back into the side, and $279k to upgrade to another gun (at this stage thinking Latrell, Turbo, Teddy, Bird). (Guns)

Robson
Haas Hopgood (c) Tapine
Carty EKatoa
Doueihi Trindall
Alamoti HSS
Warbrick Miller Thompson

Sutton Preston Cleary* CNK*
Doorey Boyd Uto Ford

*Look at him looping, thinking he'll have luxury of deciding which player to put at 17! No doubt I'll end up playing all of them!

Very nice write up bro, think Preston is a no brainer, I’ve had him since round one by luck, yet to play him, but now feel fully confident if I have to and will enjoy the cash making

This is the week to take advantage, so many edges about

You smashed it last week, well done. Anything in the 800s was a win for sure.

I like your explanations for the trades. Very interesting and helps provide some clarity for me too. I may have to reconsider holding Butcher because you're right, the bye adds another week to how long his cash making will take.

Good luck for this week, I feel like you'll 1/3 your rank again (positive thinking)!

Cheers mate, the Butcher one is a tough one, but I might just trade him out now and bring him back later when the Roosters look a little better.

Haha as a math teacher it'll be hard to split 5k into 1/3, but I like where your head is at! I'll settle for top 2k

Great looking start mate.

Have you considered going Talau to HTF?

Leaves less cash in the bank but potentially a more stable option

The Goat Boys wrote:Great looking start mate.

Have you considered going Talau to HTF?

Leaves less cash in the bank but potentially a more stable option

thanks mate! Hoping to keep it rolling.

Honestly, I haven't really. I had a quick look before round 2, but a 52 with all those attacking stats is a bit dire. Can see him getting a 15 when the Fins don't go super well, and I don't really see that any different from Thompson. Guess I'm just backing my gut that he's not that good of a player and he's just had a good start.

I know full well I might end up with egg on my face though!

Feels like deja vu but, all things considered, round 3 was a success, 801 points, round rank 21,789, overall rank 5,930 (-747).

Ups:
- Robson firing back into form, really stoked with his bounceback.
- Miller had a great game and posted a very handy 63 (could he be a cut-priced WFB keeper?)
- Managed this score despite having Cleary, Ford, and CNK all sitting on the pine.
- 'Dud' centres doing just fine (combining for 70)
- No major injuries

Downs:
- Captained Hopgood (35)
- Didn't loop Uto over Doorey to lose 28 points.
- Warbrick pretty dud (but so were Melbourne)
- Doueihi played badly, positional change, injured, and low fantasy output (33).


Plan for Week 4:

Adam Doueihi is on the chopping block. He's been pretty bad IRL lately, he is injured with likely Turf Toe according to the NRL Physio, and he's been switched to fullback where his career average is 37. Trading him out means I'm down a gun half, and so I can keep Boyd and his valuable DPP in the INT I have decided to trade in another half. The two most compelling candidates are Shaun Johnson and Adam Reynolds. They are both appealing for the same reason - massive KM, goalkicking, and solid defence. My only concern with SJ is that the Warriors, while better than previous years, do not seem on the level of the Broncos who are the in-form side of the competition. It's a very tough decision this week, but I'm going with Reynolds for the following reasons:
1. He's the best general play kicker in the competition, and is a joy to watch.
2. He plays for a better team who is red-hot at the moment, and I want to capitalise on the form of the Broncos.
3. I already have two Warriors (Ford/CNK) and having a 3rd is not ideal.
4. Reynolds doesn't have a bye until R16 and SJ has one in R12.
Trade 1: Doueihi > Reynolds

The second trade is a no-brainer in my eyes. Ryan Sutton was chosen at the start of the season as I believed he would be the beneficiary of the injury to Thompson in pre-season. Game 1 was promising with Sutton getting 57 minutes (the hope when purchased), but since then he has only gotten 42 and 46 minutes. His average when getting 40-50 minutes is only 37, and he's currently priced at 38-40 and so I don't think he holds much value, especially with TPJ returning to likely play through the middle. I have Utoikamanu who seems to be doing really well who I can play in my MID rotation, so I also don't need Sutton as MID cover at this stage. He's also a plodder so not a great deal of fun to watch. Speaking of fun to watch (nice segue), Thomas Peter Trbojevic is incredibly fun to watch. My back stocks are quite thin, and bolstering them with Turbo will add a great deal to my squad. I feel like he has the ability to score over 100 on any given week, regardless of the opposition, so I'm making him a priority trade in. Really excited to see him this week and quietly hoping for him to get the first banner of the season (if Cleary doesn't beat him to it tonight).
Trade 2: Sutton > Turbo

Does anyone have any thoughts?

Team for round 3 below. I am quite confident in my team's ability to score well this week, and hoping for a monster bounceback from Cleary tonight. I have faith in the chin, and will confidently captain him again. The guns are increasing in number, and I'm enjoying adding a splash of green to this list every time I get to. (Guns)(Potential Keepers?)

Robson
Haas Uto Tapine
Carty EKatoa
(C)leary Reynolds
Alamoti Thompson
Turbo Miller CNK

Preston Boyd Hopgood Ford
Doorey Trindall HSS Warbrick

Assuming no injuries/suspensions, I'll be looking at moving on Trindall next week to a cash cow, and potentially moving on Doorey if named on the bench again. However round 5 is a long way away, so I'm going to sit back and enjoy this round, with my lads pushing me into the top 1k with a big score.

Trades seem like no brainers mate, lock those in and don't think twice.

My only potential thoughts are getting SJ over Reynolds leaves you a bit of spare cash to target Boyd -> Brailey which I imagine will be popular in the coming weeks. All your reasons for getting Reynolds over SJ make sense though so if cash isn't a concern stick with your gut.

mrbrownstone wrote:Trades seem like no brainers mate, lock those in and don't think twice.

My only potential thoughts are getting SJ over Reynolds leaves you a bit of spare cash to target Boyd -> Brailey which I imagine will be popular in the coming weeks. All your reasons for getting Reynolds over SJ make sense though so if cash isn't a concern stick with your gut.

Yeah I've definitely had Brailey on my mind (especially as he's in my draft team) but unfortunately might miss him for a couple of reasons:

1. Knights are trash
2. I already have Robson and Brailey plays 13/16 like Robson but doesn't play 19 (neither does Robson). That means I'll need a 3rd hooker for round 19 and braileys score won't count in 13/16 effectively giving him 4 byes in my team between rounds 10-19.

For the same reasons I'll likely be targetting Mahoney (bye r13 but plays r19) as my second hooker.

If anything happens to Robbo though I'll be on Braileys 100%. Might even get him because of how cheap he might get though, just not a priority atm based on the makeup of my side.

What are your thoughts on Boyd? Do you reckon if he averages low 40s he could hand around on the int with his handy DPP?

Snatchpato wrote:
Yeah I've definitely had Brailey on my mind (especially as he's in my draft team) but unfortunately might miss him for a couple of reasons:

1. Knights are trash
2. I already have Robson and Brailey plays 13/16 like Robson but doesn't play 19 (neither does Robson). That means I'll need a 3rd hooker for round 19 and braileys score won't count in 13/16 effectively giving him 4 byes in my team between rounds 10-19.

For the same reasons I'll likely be targetting Mahoney (bye r13 but plays r19) as my second hooker.

If anything happens to Robbo though I'll be on Braileys 100%. Might even get him because of how cheap he might get though, just not a priority atm based on the makeup of my side.

What are your thoughts on Boyd? Do you reckon if he averages low 40s he could hand around on the int with his handy DPP?

Very good point, I totally forgot the change to only being able to play 13 in the bye rounds. Yeah if you already have Robson covering those rounds then Brailey is a bit redundant except as a potential high-end cow to give you playable scores.

I have no idea on Boyd tbh, I'm giving him this week to show something and impress me, if not I'll probably sell next week given he has the bye. Same as E Butcher I think he'll probably make money eventually, but he's just not doing it fast enough for my liking at this time of year so far.