Haas Tapine Hopgood
E Butcher Garner
Turbo Miller Warbrick
Boyd E Katoa Loiero Ford
TMM Doorey I Katoa Talau
Going player by player:
Smith: Not worth the risk to not start with him. I think absolute worst case he holds value, gives playable 40s, useful dual, and everyone has him. Best case he's a cutprice keeper hooker or close to.
Haas: Similar to Smith, I expect worst case is he holds price, best case is he's undervalued as a potential 60+ scorer when he's fit again. Haas priced at 56 is too good to pass up.
Tapine: Starting to go a bit cold on him and considering Cotter instead, but it's an upside play. Priced at 55, averaged 63 when he played 50+ minutes last year - he should be the man in this pack with Papa injured and getting on, and Elliott moving on. Don't see who else plays those minutes but who knows with Sticky.
Hopgood: Second easiest pick after BSmith, don't know how you don't have him. Feels like the kinda guy who at worst gives you playable scores til mid season when you upgrade to a proper gun, best case he's a gun all year.
E Butcher: When he's played over 50 minutes in the past he averages 57. It's a risk and a small sample size, that's too tempting to pass up. Reasonable job security in a good team and his game seems suited to fantasy.
Garner: People seem to have gone cold on him on here, but he's barely left my team. Priced at 33, historical average of 46 in the second row and now playing for the back to back premiers. Too hard to pass that up imo.
Cleary: Safest captain in the game with Hynes injured. Pretty much must have.
Doueihi: Career average of 61.6 at 5/8, priced at 53. Rare to find a potential gun with that much value to start the season, hard to pass up.
HSS/Alamoti: Not willing to spend up at centre, these two seem like the best/safest options. As with any cheap centre there's a chance it all goes tits up and they both start with a couple of 20s.
Turbo: Priced at 44, averages 52 at FB over 50 mins. Similar to Doueihi, hard to find a potential gun with that much value. Upside that he goes back to somewhere near 2021 scoring. I think injury is the biggest threat, if he's fit he at minimum holds price and at best thre's decent value. May still find a way to turn him into Teddy.
Miller: Don't fully trust it, but the other option is CNK and I don't really trust him either. I think he has a higher upside than CNK so gambling on that + with 26% ownership would rather have him and he fails than not have him and he guns it.
Warbrick: Base price starting Storm winger, too hard to pass up. As with any rookie back low scores are a risk, could easily be a dud but the upside is too big to ignore.
Boyd: One of the easiest picks along with BSmith, Hopgood, and Cleary. Goal kicking, should do most of the general play kicking next to Foran, averaged 48 at HB to end the year last year, and incredibly handy dual.
E Katoa: Priced at 31, averages 42 in the second row, now playing for the Storm. Hard to pass up.
Loiero: Not sold on this pick at all, could easily change it but just don't really see anyone I prefer in the price bracket. Willing to risk it on a Storm starting back row who averages 45 in the position from a limited sample size. JS is a risk with Sims I think.
Ford: See above, not sold, but don't see anyone I prefer in the price bracket. JS a risk with Curran around, but the dual is handy and he has a history of scoring well when he gets the minutes with an average of 42 when playing 40+ mins.
TMM: Handy dual, I like him better than Sloan/Thompson/Perham in terms of scoring potential and JS. Averages 33 at 5/8 but those stats are from a while ago.
Doorey: Base starting edge in last years finalists, hard to pass up. Like his JS better than Carty. Averaged 29 in the second row when playing 30+ minutes, not inspiring but enough to plod his way to 10 points of value. Ideally he improves playing for a better team.
Talau: Cheap dual CTR/WFB cover, averages 27 at centre for 10 points of value and decent JS. Not an inspiring pick at all but he'll do.
I Katoa: I'm getting Amone vibes a bit, but think I'll just go with the pack on this one with 42% ownership. Seems to have won the spot over Milf on merit, but I imagine SOS does the majority of kicking and attacking stats might be hard to come by.