NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 43 - Magic Time

Papi to ponga was a great call..

Shane Flanagan seems to rate this Flanagan kid.

I thought about trading Burton back in but wasn't prepared to eat humble pie for a guy with only 3 scores over 50 so far.

He could have me eating the floor if he keeps up the good scores.

Finally finished my strength of schedule work, well the initial data wrangling anyway. I started this work because I was interested in the NRL Fantasy Amateurs pod talking about how good Kalyn Ponga's run home was, so I thought I'd check it with a bit more detail. I believe they just use top 8 vs bottom 8, which is perfectly reasonable.

Findings:
At a team level, there is no massive advantage when comparing the competition average for future opposition fantasy points per 80 minutes for Round 10 onwards to the team average. Basically because there are a lot of rounds left and teams will play a diverse range of opponents, regressing the advantage back to the mean.

Panthers: -1.2
Sea Eagles: -0.4
Dragons: -0.4
Roosters: -0.4
Storm: -0.2
Rabbitohs: -0.1
Warriors: -0.1
Eels: 0
Sharks: +0.1
Knights: +0.1
Broncos: +0.2
Tigers: +0.2
Bulldogs: +0.3
Titans: +0.5
Cowboys: +0.5
Raiders: +0.8

Panthers have the worst draw according and a player will average -1.2 points per 80 minutes, based on how their opposition from Round 10 onwards have given away fantasy points.

It gets a bit more interesting when you look at a position/team combo.

Best Runs Home:
Knights - Fullback +16.4
Titans - Fullback +14
Bulldogs - Centre +11.7
Titans - Halfback +11
Titans - Lock +10.1
Warriors - Prop +9.4
Rabbitohs - Halfback + 9.2

Worst Runs Home:
Tigers - Halfback -14.4
Panthers - Halfback -14.0
Raiders - Lock -10.6
Knights - Five-Eighth -8.7
Sharks - Five-Eighth -8.1
Eels - Halfback -7.9

Obviously a lot of noise here and pretty imperfect, but interesting nonetheless. Especially to see Ponga come up as the top option. Can't wait to watch him do nothing tonight.

Klemmer the base stat machine at it again

my tv broke wrote:

I get subbing him early if he rips in for the first 20 mins. But ye hasnt had to do much. Youd think nrl coach would adapt changes better than that

Ran out of gas with those 3 decoy runs through the line.

ynot wrote:

Worst Runs Home:
Tigers - Halfback -14.4
Panthers - Halfback -14.0
Raiders - Lock -10.6
Knights - Five-Eighth -8.7
Sharks - Five-Eighth -8.1
Eels - Halfback -7.9

Just checking what this says

Its predicting that the Tigers halfback will score 14 points under his average in the upcoming games - based on how other halfbacks have scored against the same opposition so far this year?

Based on this obviously Hastings and Brooks need to swap numbers again.

Ponga creating a lot of space on the fringes but not translating to fantasy points

Ponga's been charged with two errors and I've absolutely no idea what they were.

Did not trade TPJ in….looks like a genius non move at this stage

Definitely faded Randall too early a couple weeks back, didn't think he would get the 80 mins but looking borderline keeper when he does

Ponga Yeo the Mann wrote:Papi to ponga was a great call..

Such a great run with mediocre opposition. Obviously he will score well!!

Decent first half from Burton. Might be my imagination but pretty sure he is owed a couple FDO’s?

I love the players who are just the least of my worries all season. I.e Randall, Ming, Bradley last year

rhinoceroo wrote:Ponga's been charged with two errors and I've absolutely no idea what they were.

Remember one knock on, other not sure

GarethEllisismyDad wrote:

Remember one knock on, other not sure

Unless I took my eyes of the game, he knocked a couple backwards in-goal but they were more kick diffusal than errors, stoopid scorers.

Pookus McFly wrote:Definitely faded Randall too early a couple weeks back, didn't think he would get the 80 mins but looking borderline keeper when he does

Same. Got me Hastings at 500k though, so freed up cash and got extra points, so not all bad. Sucks watching Knights games when you wonder why you're going backwards, and then you remember, oh yeah, that guy!

Tommy_gun wrote:Decent first half from Burton. Might be my imagination but pretty sure he is owed a couple FDO’s?

He's down for one, pretty sure he got another at least.

rhinoceroo wrote:

Unless I took my eyes of the game, he knocked a couple backwards in-goal but they were more kick diffusal than errors, stoopid scorers.

Fox hit him after one of the bombs and he dropped it, but yh a couple backwards

rhinoceroo wrote:

Unless I took my eyes of the game, he knocked a couple backwards in-goal but they were more kick diffusal than errors, stoopid scorers.

There was a knock on 10m in front of his own posts, getting tackled on a kick return.
Not sure what the other one was.

Have turned off game to watch taskmaster so I'll just assume it was an obvious error