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    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 39 - How big is yours?

    GarethEllisismyDad
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    Post by GarethEllisismyDad Tue May 03, 2022 6:27 am

    easytiger wrote:

    I had a close look at him.
    His price is nice, and being bye-friendly is great.
    His DPP isn't that handy (MID is good, HLF not so much)

    Generally speaking he has a pretty solid 40-54 minute interchange role.
    If you look at the last 16 (regular season) games (with the same interchange role) you get this;
    53: 1 (ceiling game)
    40-49: 7  
    30-39: 4  
    20-29: 1  
    9-16: 3  

    So based on that, about half his games are playable i.e. 40+
    The 30's games are more specifically; 34, 32, 32, 31 i.e. low 30's far from ideal.
    The other 4 games are punishing.

    So he probably makes money, but you only really want him in your 18-21 (maybe as a loop).
    In terms of fantasy scoring; you could almost view him as a really bad version of Nanai.
    Lower lows, and lower highs (Nanai for instance has hit 62 and 57), and Nanai has had 5/8 scores as fairly playable.

    When viewing him as an EMG then $426k suddenly becomes very pricey - and no one who is holding there guns is likely to be able to afford that luxury.

    Add in that he could find himself in a low PPM Centre position and it's a fairly easy pass for mine.

    Great post
    Monty_Burns
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    Post by Monty_Burns Tue May 03, 2022 6:34 am

    You need to take into account his two injury affected games this season which bring his average way down is the reason he's underpriced
    Jumping Marlin
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    Post by Jumping Marlin Tue May 03, 2022 6:42 am

    easytiger wrote:

    I had a close look at him.
    His price is nice, and being bye-friendly is great.
    His DPP isn't that handy (MID is good, HLF not so much)

    Generally speaking he has a pretty solid 40-54 minute interchange role.
    If you look at the last 16 (regular season) games (with the same interchange role) you get this;
    53: 1 (ceiling game)
    40-49: 7  
    30-39: 4  
    20-29: 1  
    9-16: 3  

    So based on that, about half his games are playable i.e. 40+
    The 30's games are more specifically; 34, 32, 32, 31 i.e. low 30's far from ideal.
    The other 4 games are punishing.

    So he probably makes money, but you only really want him in your 18-21 (maybe as a loop).
    In terms of fantasy scoring; you could almost view him as a really bad version of Nanai.
    Lower lows, and lower highs (Nanai for instance has hit 62 and 57), and Nanai has had 5/8 scores as fairly playable.

    When viewing him as an EMG then $426k suddenly becomes very pricey - and no one who is holding there guns is likely to be able to afford that luxury.

    Add in that he could find himself in a low PPM Centre position and it's a fairly easy pass for mine.

    Great summary!
    KiwiOilBoiler
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    Post by KiwiOilBoiler Tue May 03, 2022 6:45 am

    I reckon i'm in trouble. 3k itb. And a heap of meandering cows.

    Grant
    King Haas Lolo
    Tuilagi Fermor
    (C)leary Hastings
    Aitken Tago
    Hynes Scritta Papz

    Randall Schneider Brojo Rushton

    Illias Taafe Koula Leo

    All the reds topped out at best, losing money at worst?
    ShadowSabre
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    Post by ShadowSabre Tue May 03, 2022 7:03 am

    Have added my previous TU/TD question from the previous thread if anyone gets a chance  NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 39 - How big is yours? - Page 6 1f600

    https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t1879p40-2022-tu-td#610810
    easytiger
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    Post by easytiger Tue May 03, 2022 7:14 am

    GarethEllisismyDad wrote:

    Great post


    Jumping Marlin wrote:

    Great summary!  

    Thanks  Very Happy
    I hate that I used a "there" instead of a "their"  Laughing
    time for a coffee

    Coffee

    Monty_Burns wrote:You need to take into account his two injury affected games this season which bring his average way down is the reason he's underpriced

    The injury games are what presents the value with Dylan Walker, but they do seem to happen with him on a fairly regular basis for some reason.
    I tend to be wary of disregarding "events" especially when they appear to happen regularly (e.g. tries, minor injuries, in-game role changes etc)
    Monty_Burns
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    Post by Monty_Burns Tue May 03, 2022 7:24 am

    easytiger wrote:




    Thanks  Very Happy
    I hate that I used a "there" instead of a "their"  Laughing
    time for a coffee

    Coffee



    The injury games are what presents the value with Dylan Walker, but they do seem to happen with him on a fairly regular basis for some reason.
    I tend to be wary of disregarding "events" especially when they appear to happen regularly (e.g. tries, minor injuries, in-game role changes etc)

    Yeah he's obviously carrying a knee injury, its heavily strapped. I think best case he can average 45 and make money and is playable (including rd13). Worst case you play him and he goes off injured for a low score which also halts his cash gen.
    Worth a punt but a bit of risk there
    Finch
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    Post by Finch Tue May 03, 2022 7:26 am

    Bethany_B wrote:Tuipulotu worth it now that Saab is out 3-4 weeks?

    He would be a really handy downgrade as I could then go Randall/Jones to Lolo/Tuipulotu

    I was on Tui from the beginning. Seems a bit slow though, scores wouldn't be great if he didn't get a try
    Finch
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    Post by Finch Tue May 03, 2022 7:28 am

    I've made $102K on Nofo so far, glad I kept the faith Very Happy
    easytiger
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    Post by easytiger Tue May 03, 2022 7:50 am

    Finch wrote:

    I was on Tui from the beginning. Seems a bit slow though, scores wouldn't be great if he didn't get a try

    There ain't that many wingers that put up good scores without tries.  Fortunately wingers tend to score tries
    my tv broke
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    Post by my tv broke Tue May 03, 2022 8:18 am

    Mann and Sexton to ..... and ..... for me this week.

    Hastings would be one of them. Someone under 487k for the other

    Team is cooked.

    Might have to take a punt on one of the Walker's..

    At least three of four NPR's are starting to generate cash.. Coates, Ilias (somewhat), and hopefully Koula gets going.

    How's the consistency of Leo Thompson's scoring though, last five scores are 28, 25, 26, 26, 25. haha


    Last edited by my tv broke on Tue May 03, 2022 8:32 am; edited 1 time in total
    Snatchpato
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    Post by Snatchpato Tue May 03, 2022 8:32 am

    my tv broke wrote:Mann and Sexton to ..... and ..... for me this week.

    Hastings would be one of them. Someone under 487k for the other

    Team is cooked.
    Cody Walker only 478 and could be useful.
    Elliot at 399 if you need forwards and are willing to punt
    Tuipulotu at 312 if you need outside backs will make about 80k with a 30 in 3 rounds
    Tass at 280 similar
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Tue May 03, 2022 8:35 am

    I'm pretty confident Elliot is a trap.

    - Whitehead due back
    - No minutes security
    - No positional security
    - No job security
    - Can score badly with all three of the above anyway
    - Whitehead due back
    sajjos
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    Post by sajjos Tue May 03, 2022 8:42 am

    'Steering the ship': How Flanagan has helped unleash Burton and Dufty

    1 win in 4 since Flanagan came back into and that's what the journo's call unleashing now a days.
    my tv broke
    my tv broke
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    Post by my tv broke Tue May 03, 2022 8:44 am

    Snatchpato wrote:
    Cody Walker only 478 and could be useful.
    Elliot at 399 if you need forwards and are willing to punt
    Tuipulotu at 312 if you need outside backs will make about 80k with a 30 in 3 rounds
    Tass at 280 similar

    Pretty much nailed the options.

    Cody is tempting but not playing round 13 is annoying.

    Don't think I could pick up Elliot.. what robel said.

    Will probably lean towards someone who plays round 13 I think. Dylan Walker might actually be a decent stop gap
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Tue May 03, 2022 8:53 am

    robelgordo wrote:I'm pretty confident Elliot is a trap.

    - Whitehead due back
    - No minutes security
    - No positional security
    - No job security
    - Can score badly with all three of the above anyway
    - Whitehead due back

    I was considering taking the gamble but like you said so many downsides with no a lot of upside
    Boozecluez
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    Post by Boozecluez Tue May 03, 2022 8:57 am

    multiple.scoregasms wrote:

    I was considering taking the gamble but like you said so many downsides with no a lot of upside

    535k and plays for the broncos too
    Liverpool_Bulldog
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Tue May 03, 2022 9:05 am

    my tv broke wrote:

    Pretty much nailed the options.

    Cody is tempting but not playing round 13 is annoying.

    Don't think I could pick up Elliot.. what robel said.

    Will probably lean towards someone who plays round 13 I think. Dylan Walker might actually be a decent stop gap
    Does Cody play Origin???

    Edit: Ahhh shit I was looking at round 14, my bad


    Last edited by Liverpool_Bulldog on Tue May 03, 2022 9:17 am; edited 1 time in total
    ShadowSabre
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    Post by ShadowSabre Tue May 03, 2022 9:11 am

    Verrills looks an interesting prospect:
    - Plays RD 13
    - Mins look to be rising as he gets back to fitness
    - Capable of scoring 45-60 points in 60-80mins
    - Priced at low 40s so looks like could be 10 points under valued at the moment
    - Tackle count seems like a good base
    - Only 1.1% ownership, so very POD'y

    Anyone considering taking the plunge?


    Last edited by ShadowSabre on Tue May 03, 2022 9:14 am; edited 1 time in total
    Liverpool_Bulldog
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Tue May 03, 2022 9:13 am

    ShadowSabre wrote:Verrills looks an interesting prospect:
    - Plays RD 13
    - Mins look to be rising as he gets back to fitness
    - Capable of scoring 45-60 points in 60-80mins
    - Priced at low 40s so looks like could be 10 points under valued at the moment
    - Tackle count seems like a good base

    Anyone considering taking the plunge?
    Am considering yes.

    Bit risky but hopefully he can keep up his current scoring
    Would prefer him to be 100k cheaper

      Current date/time is Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:49 am