1. Matt to post all of his self back-patting posts in here.
Yeah, that's it.
NRL Fantasy Fanatics - A place for discussion of NRL Fantasy / Virtual Sports / Super Coach and other Fantasy Sports
GarethEllisismyDad wrote:After the knights game I knew I had to trade for him, the way sharks play he was always gonna be so involved and dominatt
no sensible coach would consider moving or dropping him,
Got him in ASAP for plenty of points and cash
Long may it continue
Sharks are such a good attacking side
Plus he is showing great work rate
Yep, looking like the buy of the year at $424k when many of us brought him in after that game. The ongoing PODdyness of him due to perceived risk factors when he was cheap just makes having him even sweeter.
Nice to have a safe place to discuss him
Not sure why others that don't have him don't see him being in Turbo 2021 form. I think they are just in denial. The game this week was as good as any game Turbo played last season.
I expect most bring in Hastings this week and from what I have heard in the chat so far, everyone that doesn't already have Talakai see him as too expensive after this week, at high $600ks. I think they are in real danger of missing the standout player who will score much higher than anyone else in their position.
Currently averaging 73 at CTR, which is likely unsustainable, but 55-60 could easily be possible for the rest of the season. Buying him at a 47 price point is still a deal for a guy in his form, who will have a negative BE again next week.
Snatchpato wrote:I for one am a salty non-owner and won't be stepping foot back in here.
mattnz wrote:Talakai now by far the highest cash gaining in the comp and has a BE of -15 this week!
Still don’t know what BEs are let alone negative breakevens but let this choo choo train continue!
A Break Even (BE) is the expected score at which a player will have the same price at the end of the round as they had going into it. It doesn't always work out that way, it is much more complicated, based on what the total scoring is across all players, but I won't bore you with that level of detail. Consider it to be an estimate.
A player is $500k and has a BE of 10, if they score more than 10 we expect their price to go up that week.
When a player has a negative break even, if they score 0, they would still get a price increase. With a negative break even of -15, if Talakai scores decently, like a 50, he would still go up in value something like $70k this round.
If you have a couple of players that you are considering bringing in, one this week and one next week and you expect them to score similarly, bring in the one with the lower BE this week first.
A good example would be if you thought you wanted both Tevaga and Brandon Smith, with one coming in this week and one next week:
- Tevaga has an estimated BE of 15
- Smith has a BE of 39
Assuming they are likely to have similar scoring, you would buy Tevaga this week and Smith next week, as this would save cash in purchasing them both.
We have a saying that we often use in fantasy circles, that BEs don't determine who you should buy, but when you should buy them. There is some level of truth to this, but a low BE for an in form player is always enticing.