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    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 19 - Do something Fifita!!!

    Fraser
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    Post by Fraser Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:23 pm

    Rabbits21 wrote:
    Thanks so much mate I haven’t got it yet but I’ll use it.

    I can send you mine from this round when it comes through as well if you want rabs, I've got no use for it.
    AL
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    Post by AL Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:24 pm

    Khany wrote:Not many fucks given for Mr Mahoney atm Very Happy  :

    Well the little oxygen thief is grossly under performing - both in $/point return, and in comparison to the rest of my team that are only mildly under performing. And he is a good wad of cash for Cleary.

    He has had 2 more chances than I should have given him. The tribe has spoken.
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:36 pm

    Cleary had 5 banners last season... just sayin'
    code delta
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    Post by code delta Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:37 pm

    Got to catch up with so many pages so this might have been covered but what is th go with TPJ's minutes last game?? Is he a trade out?
    AL
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    Post by AL Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:49 pm

    code delta wrote:Got to catch up with so many pages so this might have been covered but what is th go with TPJ's minutes last game?? Is he a trade out?

    He has been playing prop in short stints. Getting pretty gassed but might build up with more game time.

    Might also revert to edge with the mad jack injury. Looked very dangerous in Rd 2 and offloaded heaps (was playing Broncos though and had a chip on his shoulder). Didn’t really watch this round sorry so someone else might fill in the blanks.
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:55 pm

    code delta wrote:Got to catch up with so many pages so this might have been covered but what is th go with TPJ's minutes last game?? Is he a trade out?

    Are you here to party?
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:55 pm

    code delta wrote:Got to catch up with so many pages so this might have been covered but what is th go with TPJ's minutes last game?? Is he a trade out?
    If he goes back to playing 80 min EDG then you could hold him. The problem is you wont even know from team lists if that is where he is playing or not
    Jumping Marlin
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    Post by Jumping Marlin Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:57 pm

    A few thoughts looking at Cleary.  Writing it down to help my thinking.

    A comment was made a few pages back that the last 8 games are best indicator of future performance.

    Cleary has played 8 games, including the finals, after he returned from injury last year.  In those 8 games he averaged 72.5.  Prior to his injury he was averaging 97 in 2021.  So a combination of injury and tough low scoring finals took 25 points out of his average.  (His lowest scoring game of the year against the Tigers in Rd 24 btw).

    As Milchcow has noted, scores a lot down this year. Therefore it’s less important his actual average and more important how much his average is above everyone else.  The bigger one thinks this gap is, the more it is worth chasing him.

    Imagine I have $200k to invest.  I can:
    1: Invest in average player who scores what magic number predicts.  On current MN I get 15 points.
    2: Invest in someone on the up.  Let’s say I upgrade a peaked cow to someone like Starling.  Starling is underpriced so I get a better return.  Maybe he’s underpriced by 10 points, so I get 25 points for my $200k spend.
    3: If I sell a fair priced Haas to get a fair priced Cleary it costs me $200k.  If you believe in the fair price, then I get 15 extra points (like option 1).  But, because I now captain Cleary instead of Haas, I get 30 extra points in total.  
    So, in this scenario, I’m  maximising my return by investing my $200k upgrading Haas.
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Mon Mar 28, 2022 10:01 pm

    Jumping Marlin wrote:A few thoughts looking at Cleary.  Writing it down to help my thinking.

    A comment was made a few pages back that the last 8 games are best indicator of future performance.

    Cleary has played 8 games, including the finals, after he returned from injury last year.  In those 8 games he averaged 72.5.  Prior to his injury he was averaging 97 in 2021.  So a combination of injury and tough low scoring finals took 25 points out of his average.  (His lowest scoring game of the year against the Tigers in Rd 24 btw).

    As Milchcow has noted, scores a lot down this year. Therefore it’s less important his actual average and more important how much his average is above everyone else.  The bigger one thinks this gap is, the more it is worth chasing him.

    Imagine I have $200k to invest.  I can:
    1: Invest in average player who scores what magic number predicts.  On current MN I get 15 points.
    2: Invest in someone on the up.  Let’s say I upgrade a peaked cow to someone like Starling.  Starling is underpriced so I get a better return.  Maybe he’s underpriced by 10 points, so I get 25 points for my $200k spend.
    3: If I sell a fair priced Haas to get a fair priced Cleary it costs me $200k.  If you believe in the fair price, then I get 15 extra points (like option 1).  But, because I now captain Cleary instead of Haas, I get 30 extra points in total.  
    So, in this scenario, I’m  maximising my return by investing my $200k upgrading Haas.

    Note that Murray was carrying the same injury last season, but impacts you at lock far more than in the halves.
    code delta
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    Post by code delta Mon Mar 28, 2022 10:04 pm

    Chewie wrote:

    Are you here to party?
    Shit, can't remember how to link stuff.
    The Dolphin Conspiracies
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    Post by The Dolphin Conspiracies Mon Mar 28, 2022 10:05 pm

    Chewy is ready to party right now. It is giving him fleas. Everyone! Make a random meaningless post NOW so he can get started while there are not many mods about. I am sure he will throw a good one for us.

    What is the theme Chewy???
    t43597
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    Post by t43597 Mon Mar 28, 2022 10:06 pm

    24k itb

    Grant
    Haas Thompson M.King
    Tago, Nanai
    Hynes, Schneider
    Burton, Crichton
    Latrell, Teddy, Papi

    Aitken, Starling, Randall, Coates
    Amone, Ilias, Fifita, Trevilyan

    No idea who to trade for Cleary!
    code delta
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    Post by code delta Mon Mar 28, 2022 10:07 pm

    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 19 - Do something Fifita!!! - Page 50 Giphy
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Mon Mar 28, 2022 10:09 pm

    yeah I'm just lurking waiting for the party goers to arrive...

    The party theme for tonight:

    "...but wait there is more!"
    in honour of WT Winfields post on page 44

    sub-theme: The return of the captain/goat
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Mon Mar 28, 2022 10:12 pm

    Jumping Marlin wrote:A few thoughts looking at Cleary.  Writing it down to help my thinking.

    A comment was made a few pages back that the last 8 games are best indicator of future performance.

    Cleary has played 8 games, including the finals, after he returned from injury last year.  In those 8 games he averaged 72.5.  Prior to his injury he was averaging 97 in 2021.  So a combination of injury and tough low scoring finals took 25 points out of his average.  (His lowest scoring game of the year against the Tigers in Rd 24 btw).

    As Milchcow has noted, scores a lot down this year. Therefore it’s less important his actual average and more important how much his average is above everyone else.  The bigger one thinks this gap is, the more it is worth chasing him.

    Imagine I have $200k to invest.  I can:
    1: Invest in average player who scores what magic number predicts.  On current MN I get 15 points.
    2: Invest in someone on the up.  Let’s say I upgrade a peaked cow to someone like Starling.  Starling is underpriced so I get a better return.  Maybe he’s underpriced by 10 points, so I get 25 points for my $200k spend.
    3: If I sell a fair priced Haas to get a fair priced Cleary it costs me $200k.  If you believe in the fair price, then I get 15 extra points (like option 1).  But, because I now captain Cleary instead of Haas, I get 30 extra points in total.  
    So, in this scenario, I’m  maximising my return by investing my $200k upgrading Haas.

    Sound logic, but now you have to work out if you think Cleary will outscore Haas by that much this season... not sure there's 15 points difference between them, maybe 10.

    I was down on Cleary pre-season - probably would have started without him - and the main logic to that was that everything went right for Penrith last year. They've lost several of their grand final team, their depth isn't as good, Cleary - even he himself plays just as well - will get fewer tries, assists and goals.

    However. watching the Panthers this year it does turn out that they're still pretty shit hot. (They might be less dominant up front for a few weeks if JFH and Martin are out, especially JFH)
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Mon Mar 28, 2022 10:12 pm

    t43597 wrote:24k itb

    Grant
    Haas Thompson M.King
    Tago, Nanai
    Hynes, Schneider
    Burton, Crichton
    Latrell, Teddy, Papi

    Aitken, Starling, Randall, Coates
    Amone, Ilias, Fifita, Trevilyan

    No idea who to trade for Cleary!

    Your 1-16 looks decent, should Cleary be the priority, or fixing up your 17-21 players, to start getting some cash generation, with guys you can play for more than 20 points comfortably?

    Should be some good cows coming through you can grab to increase scoring by more than bringing Cleary in is likely to, and generate some cash at the same time.
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Mon Mar 28, 2022 10:15 pm

    t43597 wrote:24k itb

    Grant
    Haas Thompson M.King
    Tago, Nanai
    Hynes, Schneider
    Burton, Crichton
    Latrell, Teddy, Papi

    Aitken, Starling, Randall, Coates
    Amone, Ilias, Fifita, Trevilyan

    No idea who to trade for Cleary!

    Tough one... on form I would say Teddy, Burton or Latrell.
    You can play Hynes in the WFB with Cleary in the HLF.
    Aitken Crichton to cover CTR

    But it's very drastic
    Jumping Marlin
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    Post by Jumping Marlin Mon Mar 28, 2022 10:16 pm

    rhinoceroo wrote:

    Sound logic, but now you have to work out if you think Cleary will outscore Haas by that much this season... not sure there's 15 points difference between them, maybe 10.

    I was down on Cleary pre-season - probably would have started without him - and the main logic to that was that everything went right for Penrith last year. They've lost several of their grand final team, their depth isn't as good, Cleary - even he himself plays just as well - will get fewer tries, assists and goals.

    However. watching the Panthers this year it does turn out that they're still pretty shit hot. (They might be less dominant up front for a few weeks if JFH and Martin are out, especially JFH)

    Pretty much same. Was planning to not go with Cleary at start of year for reasons you mentioned. And agree, have to decide if he’ll score more than others by enough.
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    Post by mattnz Mon Mar 28, 2022 10:17 pm

    I'd be going something like:
    Coates > May
    Trevilyan > Momoisea
    The Dolphin Conspiracies
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    Post by The Dolphin Conspiracies Mon Mar 28, 2022 10:18 pm


      Current date/time is Sun May 22, 2022 10:22 am