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    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Sun Mar 13, 2022 2:04 pm

    Wasn't going to do this, but once it actually started considered it might be good to write stuff down.

    Who knows, maybe on Monday I'll even fire up a spreadsheet!

    Anyway, here is your 2022 SUPER DUPER STEELERS...


    HOK
    Mahoney (780k)
    Don't think he's value, but with the dearth of hookers I decided in the end to get a gun. Picked Mahoney over Cook because of no Origin - I'm a forward thinker like that. With his high base, slapped the armband on him for Round 1.

    Randall (350k)
    If you don't have him, delete your account

    Clark (412k)
    Wasn't initially keen but getting Croker vibes where he will grow into the role and eek out the required price rises. I will edit this at 6pm if it all goes pear-shaped.


    MID
    Haas (782k)
    Switched from Fifita, just because it seemed really hard to fill out MID. 84 first up exceeds expectations, a little annoying I didn't captain but that's minor. Now hoping Fifita doesn't score many tries yet.

    Uto (557k)
    Definitely an "upside" pick where I'm hoping he grows into a role. I think some ok signs in R1. Let's play it out and see where it goes.

    Bullemor (331k - also EDG)
    Didn't watch Thurs night but early season forum highlight is reading through post-game and seeing everyone trashing him... until he scored a try. Manly EDGs seem to do well in fantasy. Might only have a 4-6 week shelf life but if he's gonna keep busting out 40s that is fine.

    J King (319k)
    Expectation was decent minutes this week then to coin goat along, but with Storm's issues he could be better than that.

    Leniu (322k)
    Oops. I was onboard most pre-season, took him out Thurs morning for JKing, then say that Panthers bench, and went full Old El Paso kid "why not both?". So it wasn't a complete knee-jerk, in that I wanted him well before 1hr before kickoff. But it was still a bad decision. Likely gone after team list Tuesday.


    EDG
    Wilton (484k)
    Seems pretty wrong to gamble on a dirty mid that may only play 4-6 weeks BUT he looks like a Fantasy scoring machine, and with Graham's many injury issues and Nikora not being offered a new deal yet, he could just be one of those guys that is there all season. Like RFM in 2020, maybe.

    Nanai (350k)
    Will make the required money if he cuts his missed tackles down from 6.5 per game. Yikes.

    Tuilagi (310k)
    Bit of a job security risk but hard to go past a starting edge at that price.


    HLF
    Mann (472k - also MID)
    Feels weird not have a gun EDG to start, but once Cleary was out it all seemed a gamble with the kicking nerf. Mann was a close call over Clifford, mainly on price. Hard to ascertain exactly what role is from R1 due to HIA, but looks to involve decent minutes.

    Ilias (300k)
    Not expecting huge things. After his team was terrible R1, I reckon he gets going and slots into a low-to-mid 30s average. Which is enough at his price.

    Schneider (240k)
    A no-brainer after Ricky publicly said the role was his. Looks like could stick in my squad for awhile yet.


    CTR
    Burton (593k - also HLF)
    Aitken (540k - also EDG)
    Often when I looked at other teams, I was like, how do they have one more gun? Then I'd realise it's because I'm packing serious heat in the least fashionable position in fantasy. My rationale is that if Burton and Aitken offered the same value in any other position, I wouldn't hesitate. So let's lock them in. Both offer DPP flexibility too.

    Vailea (240k)
    The flip side is gambling on cheap CTRs that throw up single-digit scores. Hope is still that Warriors stick with the youngster and he comes good.


    WFB
    Papenhuyzen (636k)
    The third guy I assume everyone serious has, aside from Randall and Schneider.

    Crichton 350k - also CTR)
    Priced at what he is seemingly due to a typo, Crichton repaid the faith with a 57 in R1. Of course, most people selected him in the NPRs. Which leads to...

    Mitchell (671k)
    For me the equation was, do I prefer 57 from Crichton + Latrell Mitchell from R2, or Nicho Hynes (and I guess 69k more cash). Went the former. Hynes looks like he'll do fine, but I think Mitchell is enough of an upgrade.

    Coates (330k)
    Ended up deciding on Friday on the birthday boy over Jaxson Paulo. Lost points on the deal R1, but it's a long season. Have to think Coates is going to score loads of tries, and if they come in bunches, the price rises will happen. But would prefer not to have him in my 17 again.
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    Post by robelgordo Mon Mar 14, 2022 2:01 pm

    R1 RECAP
    Mahoney (c)
    Haas Udo Bully
    Wilton Nanai
    Mann Ilias
    Burton Aitken
    Papy Mitchell* Coates

    Randall Clark Schneider JKing

    Tuilagi Crichton* Leniu Vailea

    839 points, rank 14,495

    Could've done without my 3rd worst scorer in my 17 being captain, but team seems reasonably well setup despite slow-ish start

    If Leniu replaces Leota, possibly no trades.
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    Post by robelgordo Wed Mar 23, 2022 12:44 am

    R2 RECAP
    Mahoney (c)
    Haas Uto Bully
    Wilton Nanai
    Mann Burton
    Crichton Aitken
    Papy Mitchell Coates

    Randall Tuilagi Vailea* Schneider*

    JKing* Leniu* Clark Ilias

    718 points, OR 19,958

    No trades. Even kept the captain the same, which was a bit silly but only cost 7. Had Latrell come in, and a mad double loop that worked well.

    Scored terribly.

    Will trade now. Probably Uto as he looks mid AF, plus Tuilagi because HIA, as outs. 99% Starling and MKing in.
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    Post by robelgordo Mon Mar 28, 2022 11:47 am

    R3 RECAP

    Randall
    Haas (c) Leniu JKing
    Bully Nanai
    Mann Schneider
    Burton Aitken
    Papy Mitchell Crichton

    Mahoney Starling Clark MKing

    Ilias Coates Wilton Vailea

    833 points, OR 16,552

    Pretty gross result, moving up 3k at this point feels like going backwards.

    Wielded the axe this week. Uto and Tuilagi out, due to poor scoring and head knock respectively, plus playing for the Tigers.

    Mahoney dropped to the bench too!

    Starling and MKing in.

    Never really shared the doubts others did on Starling. MKing probably the last week to grab and looking at 35 average, so a bit underwhelming but in the range of expectations.

    Main problems are:
    1. No-cho Hynes
    Switched him to Mitchell during R1 to get Crichton's 57. That extra 8 pts in R1 then was totally worth the 100-ish foregone the next two weeks Rolling Eyes

    Hynes was in-and-out of my team all pre-season, I never really thought he'd do more than say, Burton or Sexton at a similar price, and possibly he'd do less. So it's more a long-term bad judgement than an ill-advised short term move. Which is probably worse - systemic process issue rather than an anomaly.

    At 740k I think I have to let him go for now because of other problems plus getting Cleary some day. Just hope he slows down sooner rather than later.

    2. COIN GOATS
    I could've foreseen one of Bully or Leniu shitting the bed this round, but not both and so badly... I'll probably just throw away the bedsheets rather than attempt to wash them tbh.
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    Post by robelgordo Mon Apr 04, 2022 8:40 am

    ^there was supposed to be a 2nd point about coin goats above - Bully, Leniu, Coates, Ilias, Vailea - but I seemed to not write it? Thankfully a slightly downgraded issue now…
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    Post by robelgordo Mon Apr 04, 2022 8:46 am

    R4 RECAP

    Randall
    Haas (c) Mann JKing
    Wilton Nanai
    Johnson Schneider
    Burton Aitken
    Papy Mitchell Crichton

    Starling Clark Jones MKing

    Leniu Ilias Coates Vailea


    900 points, OR 14,201

    A better week as Hynes scores normally and Cleary started slowly. Slowly climbing the ladder.

    Yes, I did bring in Shaun Johnson for Reed Mahoney. I am not a crackpot. People spent the week arguing about Gilbert and Cotter.

    Other trade was Brodie Jones for Bully

    Got a bit of a Cleary bank, although all will depend on TLT. It’s also tempting to double cow should 2 become available and piss off Clark and Leniu. That way I could be proud of my whole team.
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    Post by robelgordo Mon Apr 11, 2022 2:50 pm

    R5 RECAP

    Randall
    Haas (c) Mann JKing
    Wilton Nanai
    Johnson Schneider
    Burton Aitken
    Papy Mitchell Crichton

    Starling Walters Jones MKing

    Clark Ilias Coates Vailea

    761 points, OR 16,232

    1 trade - Leniu off the menu, for Walters, who moved into the 17 ahead of Clark. Naturally Walters got a 29 and stalled his cash rises immediately, while Clark (55) got the 3rd best score in my squad.

    It was a week of two halves for me. At 5pm Friday I halved my rank to about 7000, before losing 9000 ranks over the last 4 games.

    Will need a new WFB (for Mitchell) - obvious options are to suck it up and spend 200k more on Hynes than everyone else did at R1, or go for the FALLEN GUN like Teddy, Ponga.

    Might need a Haas replacement, if suspended. Getting Cleary likely on hold. The way it's going might be able to do Vailea to Cleary in 3 weeks.
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    Post by WT Winfield Mon Apr 11, 2022 9:43 pm

    Think you're on the money with initial thoughts. See how the Haas situation plays out and Taaffe could be a band-aid option in the WFBs if needing a MID. Or just a cashout otherwise.

    Teddy, Ponga and Trbo (when he's fit) bleeding so much cash should mean most people's WFBs could be set and forget soon.

    Ponga seems to be carrying a leg injury, so I definitely favour Teddy at the moment and I think he's roughly 7 points under-priced currently. Ponga hasn't been this cheap since his rookie season, could be hard to avoid in a couple/few weeks.

    I overlooked not having Hynes until you mentioned it. Tough to stomach the 200k and missed scores. I classify anyone that's a legit captain option a must have though and try to get them in ASAP. Priced at 58 and hard to see him scoring below 50 too often. Maybe this week against his old team? Think you're a fuck the draw guy, but a decent one coming up after this week.

    Sucks about Walters too. Not the start I'd hoped for, but hopefully sticks around and can hit that 50 amongst some 30s.
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    Post by robelgordo Mon Apr 11, 2022 10:20 pm

    WT Winfield wrote:Think you're on the money with initial thoughts. See how the Haas situation plays out and Taaffe could be a band-aid option in the WFBs if needing a MID. Or just a cashout otherwise.

    Teddy, Ponga and Trbo (when he's fit) bleeding so much cash should mean most people's WFBs could be set and forget soon.

    Ponga seems to be carrying a leg injury, so I definitely favour Teddy at the moment and I think he's roughly 7 points under-priced currently. Ponga hasn't been this cheap since his rookie season, could be hard to avoid in a couple/few weeks.

    I overlooked not having Hynes until you mentioned it. Tough to stomach the 200k and missed scores. I classify anyone that's a legit captain option a must have though and try to get them in ASAP. Priced at 58 and hard to see him scoring below 50 too often. Maybe this week against his old team? Think you're a fuck the draw guy, but a decent one coming up after this week.

    Sucks about Walters too. Not the start I'd hoped for, but hopefully sticks around and can hit that 50 amongst some 30s.

    Thanks for the feedback. Yeah I really thought that Hynes might do what Burton is now - being steady without setting the world on fire. I was wrong. Then could’ve got him at 740k but was focussed on the Cleary fund. Could easily be a Hynes fund.
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    Post by WT Winfield Mon Apr 11, 2022 10:56 pm

    robelgordo wrote:

    Thanks for the feedback. Yeah I really thought that Hynes might do what Burton is now - being steady without setting the world on fire. I was wrong. Then could’ve got him at 740k but was focussed on the Cleary fund. Could easily be a Hynes fund.

    Yeah even as a Sharks fan 2nd and Storm 3rd, I didn't expect the addition of Hynes and Finucane to click this fast. I fluked the Raiders tip in Rd 1, but have been impressed from Rd 2 on. Good test this week vs. Storm.

    Hynes putting up 35 just from tackles and kick metres so far. TBs and MTs cancelling out. Offloads, goals, minus errors putting him well into the 40s. Throw in some attacking stats and it starts to get scary. Doesn't really seem like a purple patch based on what we saw from him at FB at the Storm.

    Hard to see him getting cheaper anytime soon, but if having to pivot this week, not the worst timing against a team that might keep him quieter than usual.
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    Post by robelgordo Mon Apr 18, 2022 11:06 am

    No Easter Monday players so early write up…

    R6 early RECAP

    Starling
    MKing Mann JKing
    Wilton Nanai
    Johnson Schneider
    Burton Aitken
    Papy Hynes(c) Crichton

    Randall Ilias Jones Clark

    Walters Coates Vailea Haas

    686 points
    OR - tba but probs over 20k


    1 trade - Mitchell to Hynes(c)
    Necessary to cover the injured Mitchell at WFB and suspended Haas as captain

    Not worried about Hynes 45, worried it’s the equal 3rd highest score. Awful. Never copped a sub 700 before, I don’t think, at least in a full round (no byes). Has anyone??

    The Hynes move does show how one poor decision compounds…

    mid R1 went Mitchell to Hynes to get Crichtons 57 but mainly because I didn’t believe Hynes would be that good. Pretty bad judgment lol

    Then after missing the Hynes R2&3 80s, decided to ignore Hynes at 740k to get Cleary

    Then as I’m ready to get Cleary, the Mitchell injury happens and I need Hynes at 814k. And Cleary gets his inevitable big score. So having missed 5 weeks of Hynes will miss 5 of Cleary, probably.

    As an aside, I was also away camping. Booked in a private property rather than a national park. Naively thought this would mean facilities like 4G and hot showers. I was wrong. Spent 10 mins standing in a field on Friday arvo to pick up a 3G signal and remove my loops and line up 1-17. That might have saved me 12 pts as I’m pretty sure with the loops I play Walters over Ilias.

    Will write more on Weds assessing R7 options, not going to look closely until then.
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    Post by robelgordo Tue Apr 19, 2022 12:45 pm

    ^^ Ended up 20,887 OR ^^

    Not sure I can get Cleary plus nuff, or it’s even desirable, as I’d probably be rolling Ilias and/or Walters in my 17 to do so

    Might be zagging for a bit, get Teddy or Angus or some other fallen guns

    Despite shit R6 score I think I could also hold fire one week and reassess
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    Post by robelgordo Tue Apr 26, 2022 9:19 am

    R7 RECAP

    Clark
    Haas Mann MKing
    Jones Nanai
    Cleary(c) Schneider
    Aitken Crichton
    Papy Hynes Coates

    Randall Starling Johnson JKing

    Walters Ilias Roberts Vailea

    931 points, OR 17,807

    Best week of the season, regaining about 3k ranks, although lack of Talakai means it's well short of the dizzying heights of many here.

    But getting in Hynes last week and Cleary this one, it feels like my team has been course corrected. Comes at the expense of any cash gen mind, so future moves are going to be tricky.

    Trades this week were  Burton + Wilton -> Cleary + Roberts

    I think I'd exercised enough patience with Burton. Would've liked to have held Wilton a week or two longer at least, but ends justify means

    Aside from Cleary, I went James Roberts. He's looked good to me this year, Tigers are on the up, and I just felt better spending 310k on a CTR than 260k on Edrick Lee. Plus I could setup a sick loop with Coates using Vailea. Then he was withdrawn (again). Fortunately Coates went good but clearly need some outside backs stat.

    Other priority is probably MID and/or EDG.

    For sells, my order of concern is:
    1. Johnson - no longer general play kicking, can't see a path where he even holds value
    2. Nanai - would've been gone last week, except didn't fund Cleary. Getting Tuilagi back and saving 100k might be on.
    3. Walters - got him in at R5 lol
    4. Vailea - been waiting 7 weeks for someone cheap enough to replace him, where the base cows at?
    5. Clark - probably 1-2 weeks in him, don't think can keep to R13
    6. Mann - role too dodgy
    7. JKing - not urgent but peaked
    8. Randall - not urgent but peaked
    9. BJones - misses this week with injury, then maybe 1-2 weeks left
    I only have 2 trades every week

    No point looking too closely until new prices + TLT, but moving the top 2 likely gives me a mil. Tedesco + Tuilagi maybe?
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    Post by robelgordo Tue May 03, 2022 9:21 am

    R8 RECAP

    Clark
    JKing Haas MKing
    Jones Nanai
    Cleary(c) Schneider
    Aitken Crichton
    Papy Hynes Teddy

    Randall Starling Tuilagi Coates*

    Ilias Roberts Walters Vailea

    918 points, OR 13,178

    Big week, scoring wise.

    Went Johnson to Tedesco, funded via Mann to Tuilagi (2nd time on he Tuilagi train). I spent all week agonising over trading out Mann or Nanai, only for the decision to get made for me. In my haste to sort it before the 3pm Sat game locked, I did forget Mann was my MID cover. So let's hope Haas doesn't miss a game haha. I also went Tuilagi over Hastings for cash, but that looks silly already. Looped Coates, which was nice.

    This week - probably need to stop trading, only save 4 so far. But, Hastings! MID cover needed! And a couple of sub-300k coin goats maybe...
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    Post by Boozecluez Tue May 03, 2022 9:46 am

    Couple of solid weeks there, going well and the team looks the goods
    Have got lucky with the last couple weeks with Coates too, can't complain when he is on the end of a storm backline scoring points at will
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    Post by robelgordo Tue May 03, 2022 10:04 am

    Boozecluez wrote:Couple of solid weeks there, going well and the team looks the goods
    Have got lucky with the last couple weeks with Coates too, can't complain when he is on the end of a storm backline scoring points at will

    Cheers,

    Shocking start, mainly due to no Hynes. Took a 300k bath on that (plus probably another 300k in opp costs for missing cash gen/other players). Then got in Cleary. Think those two have righted the ship. Let's see if I can get top 10k over the next month, overtake some H2H players thru Origin, and maybe top 3k is a reasonable goal?

    Coates I don't want in my 17 each week, but it's worked the last 2.

    I play Nearly Sport and have him, Papy, and Olam. It's been hilarious being in these tight 12-10 arm wrestles the last 2 weeks, then the Storm play and I win 52-14 or something.

    If I do trade, early thoughts are midranger and Roberts (oops) to Angus and Koula. Need the MID, probably miss Hastings altogether.
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    Post by easytiger Sat May 07, 2022 11:00 am

    I think if you make solid trades going forwards then realistically a top 1k finished is still very possible. 
    The ranking numbers sometimes make things look worse than they really are, it's ultimately just about how many points back and ensuring you generate enough value to make good moves. 

    Pity you need a mid this week so have to forgo Hastings, but Crichton offers genuine value even if he doesn't offer any bye round benefits
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    Post by robelgordo Mon May 09, 2022 11:28 am

    R9 RECAP

    Starling
    JKing Haas MKing
    Tuilagi Nanai
    Cleary(c) Schneider
    Koula* SCrichton
    Papy Hynes Teddy

    Randall Clark Ilias Aitken

    Walters ACrichton Coates Vailea

    Used Hass/Angus to loop Walters and Koula, with Koula then chucked into the starting lineup because of Aitkens DPP.

    871 points, OR 13,032

    A whopping 165 ranks gained, but I guess progress is progress.

    Trades: BJones/Roberts -> ACrichton/Koula
    (good to re-unite the Crichton brothers)

    My round was looking diabolical until the Roosters game, then managed to claw my way to pretty much average at my low ranking. Shame Aitken got knocked into next week - mainly for him on a personal level, but also for my fantasy team - an extra 20pts would legit be 500+ ranks at my level (even when accounting for other Aitken owners).

    I'm guessing Aitken is a hold, and hoping Papy is a hold, and also that Haas is back. Not really worth contemplating much until all that is revealed.
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    Post by robelgordo Mon May 16, 2022 12:47 pm

    R10 RECAP


    (AKA: THE ROUND WHERE I F-D UP)
    (more than usual)

    Randall
    King Haas King
    Angus Nanai
    Cleary(c) Ilias
    Crichton Koula
    Hynes Teddy Turbo

    Starling Clark Tuilagi Aitken
    Coates Schneider Walters Vailea

    734pts, OR 14,455


    So, the fuck up.

    When Aitken was injured I decided not to bother with a Koula/Vailea loop, and moved Aitken back to my bench because it would make more sense to loop Coates and one of Ilias/Schneider. Went with Schneider as would rather see the volatile Coates score first.

    EXCEPT AITKEN PLAYED BEFORE BOTH OF THEM ARGGHHHHHHLHLHLHLHHPPPJKLKKKJJFJHHHH! 

    Didn't twig despite literally watching the last 10 mins of the Warriors. Instead I realised about 30 mins into the Panthers/Storm game, when Coates was on -7. He bravely battled back to -1. 

    The killer was unlike many here, Schneider was never on my trade list. I actually had him starting instead of Ilias until the Aitken injury. Then I swapped them because Ilias wouldn't work as well in the loop that didn't exist.

    So exactly 50 pts foregone, due to stupidity. Looking at the FOG I reckon it's about 1700 places, difference between a tiny rank gain and a big rank loss.

    Anyway, my one trade was Papy to Turbo, which will be fine in the long run.

    This week, Coates out. Ignoring the sheer magnitude of -1, I think I made the same mistake back in 2019 with Sivo... these low base wingers get to 500k-ish, you take the money and run at the earliest opp. Not worth the variance risk. Haven't looked at anything else yet.
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    Post by robelgordo Mon May 16, 2022 1:40 pm

    OK, early thoughts are:

    Coates and Randall OUT (original, I know)

    for

    1 of Harris/Robson/Cotter
    *like Harris most, but might be 1-2 weeks early
    *think Robson is potentially ~100k underpriced IF he stays at 65+ min. And I do love a cheap hooker.
    *Cotter keeps smashing it, I think my blocker is I hate playing 700k, when I could've paid 500k. It's pretty irrational. Also maybe Robson slightly safer on base?

    and

    See if I can find a coin goat, I dunno?

      Current date/time is Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:10 pm