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    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 3 - Max or Josh?

    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Wed Feb 23, 2022 12:47 am

    Welshy wrote:My top 3 selections for in goal escapes are Teddy, Walsh and Dedwards

    You don't think the Knights will need in goal escapes?

    Edit: Nevermind
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    Post by Camo123 Wed Feb 23, 2022 5:40 am

    Snatchpato wrote:
    292k wtf?

    The bloke has averaged 36, 35, 30.5 from 2018-2020. He obviously didn't have a great year last year in and out of the team, but a goal kicking (presumably over Fog) experienced CTR can't be that bad. Consistent 30s at least is a solid choice for the 17-21. Great catch Beth (unless I'm missing something too). I know there's a few young guns hunting his position, but his experience might just hold his spot.

    The thing you’re missing is he can get 5 goals and still end up on 15
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Wed Feb 23, 2022 7:26 am

    Bethany_B wrote:am I insane for looking at Jarrod Croker?

    292k, so cheaper than even Taylan May or Jaxson Paulo, and looked to be fit and healthy in the first trial. He would only need to average 30-35 to make some decent money (priced at 23).

    I'm personally looking forward to the return of the king. Only 1 try, 1 try assist and 2 line breaks last season while metres and tackles stayed similar. Negatives crept up a little on the back of carrying injury

    He is definitely under valued but how far under valued probably depends on how well the Raiders play. With CNK back and Fogarty in to fill the halfback void left by Williams I see the Raiders on the upswing. Probably makes Wighton a little bit unders as well

    If cows don't turn up on TLT he probably makes my team
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Wed Feb 23, 2022 7:31 am

    Milchcow wrote:

    Just 12 months ago the prevailing wisdom was that Teddy was miles ahead of the 2nd best WFB.

    Lot has changed in 12 months. Wonder if the TB nerf or Vlandys rule-changes will shale things up again this year.

    Nobody is really catering for escape from in-goal points either.  I suspect they'll be too much of a crapshoot to plan your team around, but might cause a few adjustments after a couple of rounds if certain players turn out to be really good at them

    Teddy is one that could surprise. Had that poor run of form from round 5ish onwards and only scored one try between round 5 and 25. I think a few got burnt starting him last year only to watch him drop nearly 300k. TB nerf will hurt him more than most but in an improved Roosters team should be plenty of attacking stats on offer
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Wed Feb 23, 2022 7:37 am

    Camo123 wrote:

    The thing you’re missing is he can get 5 goals and still end up on 15

    That's the best part about owning Croker. You need 10 points? He will get you 15. you need 20 points? He will get you 15
    Weiland
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    Post by Weiland Wed Feb 23, 2022 8:19 am

    Revraiser wrote:

    Please PM me your summation when you are done  Rolling Laugh

    Haha I would never wish my shitty Fantasy ideas on anyone.
    Ponga Yeo the Mann
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    Post by Ponga Yeo the Mann Wed Feb 23, 2022 8:22 am

    Stupid question but have prices already been adjusted for the new rules based on last season?

    So Teddy losing let’s say 7 points for TBs but gaining 2 for OLs and .2 for escaping the in goal? Or do we just look at tedesco and assume he is starting the season with a 4-5 point penalty with the new rules?

    Same for kick metres etc obviously
    easytiger
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    Post by easytiger Wed Feb 23, 2022 8:23 am

    Cookie Monster wrote:


    Probably more like a total irrelevance. According to the stats on foxsports lab there were 52 In-Goal Escapes (IGE) for the whole of last season (including finals matches) with Ted, Latrell, Brimson and Feldt all getting 3 each.
    While these will be stats that are used for Supercoach, you have to figure that Fanhubs will be quite similar


    https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nrl-premiership/stats/players?editiondata=none&fromakamai=true&pt=none&device=DESKTOP&wpa=BB44D82C3D7223D393F2AE47579FB5EA6791ABE4&category=running&sortBy=inGoalEscapes

    If anything I thought Supercoach stats tend to be more generous than the NRL ones.

    I certainly wouldn't be expecting any of my players to add even 1 IGE per game let alone more than that - when they do it will be a nice 2 point bonus, but it's certainly no Offload to Hand!
    easytiger
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    Post by easytiger Wed Feb 23, 2022 8:30 am

    Ponga Yeo the Mann wrote:Stupid question but have prices already been adjusted for the new rules based on last season?

    So Teddy losing let’s say 7 points for TBs but gaining 2 for OLs and .2 for escaping the in goal? Or do we just look at tedesco and assume he is starting the season with a 4-5 point penalty with the new rules?

    Same for kick metres etc obviously

    I may be wrong, but I think:
    TB - reduction has been accounted for in pricing
    KM - reduction has been added
    OL - I think this has been just left as if all were to ground (i.e. 2 points) - so offers some upside
    IGE - Not added, but IMO not likely to have much affect on pricing anyway
    6-Again infringements - No added, and again, likely to be a pretty minor influence on pricing
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Wed Feb 23, 2022 8:44 am

    multiple.scoregasms wrote:

    I'm personally looking forward to the return of the king. Only 1 try, 1 try assist and 2 line breaks last season while metres and tackles stayed similar. Negatives crept up a little on the back of carrying injury

    He is definitely under valued but how far under valued probably depends on how well the Raiders play. With CNK back and Fogarty in to fill the halfback void left by Williams I see the Raiders on the upswing. Probably makes Wighton a little bit unders as well

    If cows don't turn up on TLT he probably makes my team

    Yeah when the cows don't show up I'll turn to Croker. There's never enough budget or players with huge upside to just have 21 sexy picks. Sometimes you need to settle for the player making you 80k in 10 weeks by scoring 25-30 every game.
    Ponga Yeo the Mann
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    Post by Ponga Yeo the Mann Wed Feb 23, 2022 9:14 am

    easytiger wrote:

    I may be wrong, but I think:
    TB - reduction has been accounted for in pricing
    KM - reduction has been added
    OL - I think this has been just left as if all were to ground (i.e. 2 points) - so offers some upside
    IGE - Not added, but IMO not likely to have much affect on pricing anyway
    6-Again infringements - No added, and again, likely to be a pretty minor influence on pricing

    Thanks legend. Was trying to figure it out myself. Teddy as the example averaged 58 but priced at 56 when based on 7TBs and 1OL I’d expect a 5-6 point drop rather than 2 points. I guess there’s some inconsistency to be expected given it’s failhub
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    Post by easytiger Wed Feb 23, 2022 9:28 am

    Ponga Yeo the Mann wrote:

    Thanks legend. Was trying to figure it out myself. Teddy as the example averaged 58 but priced at 56 when based on 7TBs and 1OL I’d expect a 5-6 point drop rather than 2 points. I guess there’s some inconsistency to be expected given it’s failhub

    Thinking about it, I may be wrong on the OL.
    From memory something like 75%+ of Offloads last year were to hand, so they may have simply adjusted it based on OL's being worth on average 3.5 points?

    Milch has put together a good run down on pricing vs adjusted averages (based on those scoring system changes - I'm sure he knows pretty well what has been accounted for):
    https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t1787-2022-player-prices

    It's funny, I've often heard on PodCasts etc mentions that player X will lose money because they have traditionally had lots of TB's, or player Y has lots of value to gain because last year they lead the Offloads, but in reality if it's already priced in, then player X and player Y's potential value is really just the same as any other year - a change in role, a gain/loss of minutes, or and increase/decrease in Fantasy relevant output

    So just IMO, I'm looking for players with improved opportunity (role, minutes) largely independent of the changes to the scoring system.
    Beyond that in the background I'm conscious that players that may increase their KM's or TB's have their ceiling a little lowered, players that increase their OL's have their ceiling slightly raised
    No Worries
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    Post by No Worries Wed Feb 23, 2022 9:29 am

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    Post by No Worries Wed Feb 23, 2022 9:33 am

    easytiger wrote:

    Thinking about it, I may be wrong on the OL.
    From memory something like 75%+ of Offloads last year were to hand, so they may have simply adjusted it based on OL's being worth on average 3.5 points?

    Milch has put together a good run down on pricing vs adjusted averages (based on those scoring system changes - I'm sure he knows pretty well what has been accounted for):
    https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t1787-2022-player-prices

    It's funny, I've often heard on PodCasts etc mentions that player X will lose money because they have traditionally had lots of TB's, or player Y has lots of value to gain because last year they lead the Offloads, but in reality if it's already priced in, then player X and player Y's potential value is really just the same as any other year - a change in role, a gain/loss of minutes, or and increase/decrease in Fantasy relevant output

    So just IMO, I'm looking for players with improved opportunity (role, minutes) largely independent of the changes to the scoring system.
    Beyond that in the background I'm conscious that players that may increase their KM's or TB's have their ceiling a little lowered, players that increase their OL's have their ceiling slightly raised

    I think the only exception will be players who score big on KMs will be brought back to the pack so you wont see benches stacked with 6 halves
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    Post by Milchcow Wed Feb 23, 2022 9:42 am

    Ponga Yeo the Mann wrote:

    Thanks legend. Was trying to figure it out myself. Teddy as the example averaged 58 but priced at 56 when based on 7TBs and 1OL I’d expect a 5-6 point drop rather than 2 points. I guess there’s some inconsistency to be expected given it’s failhub

    Prices have definitely been adjusted based on something. As we don't have accurate stats for offload effectiveness or escape from ingoal, its hard to say exactly what formula was used to adjust he prices.
    Whatevre it is it is not as simple as just removing KMs and TB points

    Some players seem more or less discounted than others, for reasons that aren't clear to us right now. I assume there is some fanhub algorithm in the background spitting out prices, all we can do is work out best value with the prices we are given.

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    Post by easytiger Wed Feb 23, 2022 9:51 am

    No Worries wrote:

    I think the only exception will be players who score big on KMs will be brought back to the pack so you wont see benches stacked with 6 halves

    It's certainly brought the halves back to values closer to other positions.
    I did some quick & dirty stats adjustments by role for last year, and Halfbacks look to have dropped about 5.3 points on average, Five-Eighths down 3.7, Fullbacks down 3.1 and Wings down 2.1 (although both will gain a little on the IGE), Centre down 1.3 and all other positions less than 1 point different.

    Adjusted positional averages for 2021 (based on new scoring excluding IGE and 6Again penalties);
    46.8 HOK
    46.7 HLF (was 52.0)
    45.4 LCK
    44.9 EDG
    43.3 FLB (was 43.3)
    41.7 PRP
    40.9 5/8 (was 44.6)
    32.8 CTR
    31.9 WNG

    So less than 2 points separating hookers, halfbacks, second-row and locks as a nondescript positions does in some ways open things up (although really it comes down to what the Elite's in each category average).

    I'd also say that peoples INSERT 🔥 *Centre* priced at 28 is going to have to perform significantly over the average for that position to offer any great gain.
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    Post by Milchcow Wed Feb 23, 2022 9:58 am

    easytiger wrote:

    Thinking about it, I may be wrong on the OL.
    From memory something like 75%+ of Offloads last year were to hand, so they may have simply adjusted it based on OL's being worth on average 3.5 points?


    In supercoach scoring 82% of offloads are effective, with 18% ineffective.
    If that holds true for fantasy it would average ~3.64 points per offload across the board. Certain people would be more effective than others.


    Total offloads were ballpark the same as fantasy total offloads. Biggest unknown is whether the SC opinion of "effective" matches the STATS option of (to hand)
    Their definitions of "tackle" and "tackle break" vary, so they could be more or less strict on what counts as 'offload to hand'
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    Post by Milchcow Wed Feb 23, 2022 10:00 am

    No Worries wrote:

    I think the only exception will be players who score big on KMs will be brought back to the pack so you wont see benches stacked with 6 halves

    Its one reason why Sexton and Burton are appealing. They kicked less last year than they are expected to this year - so their scores weren't reduced by as much as they could have been

    Burton's problem is that he scored a lot more tries last year than he likely will this year, so his price has been artificially inflated based on that.
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    Post by Bethany_B Wed Feb 23, 2022 10:16 am

    With Croker, I can see him being like Opacic was - you expect him to suck but he somehow gets low to mid 30s a game and does a job for you.

    I will have him in my team unless we get multiple 240k players.
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    Post by Chewie Wed Feb 23, 2022 10:34 am

    Milchcow wrote:

    Its one reason why Sexton and Burton are appealing. They kicked less last year than they are expected to this year - so their scores weren't reduced by as much as they could have been

    Burton's problem is that he scored a lot more tries last year than he likely will this year, so his price has been artificially inflated based on that.

    Wouldn't Burton scoring less tries offset by potentially more LBAs and TAs this season?

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