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    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

    sajjos
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    Post by sajjos Fri Feb 11, 2022 5:28 pm

    Fortitude wrote:

    Fixed

    Matt, it's your fault. Rolling Eyes
    The Dolphin Conspiracies
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    Post by The Dolphin Conspiracies Fri Feb 11, 2022 5:28 pm

    sajjos wrote:

    I almost fell for the "big minutes" Paulo talk last year. This year he is the captain so might finally get consistent 50+ minutes so may be 5-6 points undervalued.

    dual Captain with Gutherson - unlikely to affect minutes too much
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:02 pm

    sajjos wrote:

    Matt, it's your fault.  Rolling Eyes

    I would say that the fault is your own expectations of them being 5-0.
    Regulator
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    Post by Regulator Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:09 pm

    mrbrownstone wrote:Is Berry even guaranteed a spot? He'll probably be there round 1, but when Walsh is back I wouldn't be shocked to see:

    1. Walsh
    2. DWZ
    3. Arthars
    4. Pompey
    5. Montoya

    Also the risk of Aitken moving back to CTR and pushing Berry out when Tohu returns.

    Berry is the future at centre for the Warriors, and had some good games last year. He's also better than Pompey.

    Arthas is on loan for a year.
    Honey Badger
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    Post by Honey Badger Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:22 pm

    sajjos wrote:

    I almost fell for the "big minutes" Paulo talk last year. This year he is the captain so might finally get consistent 50+ minutes so may be 5-6 points undervalued.

    Ha ha I did fall for the big minute talk last year. Thankfully he score a try in his first two games to save his scores. I pretty quickly upgraded him to Tohu.

    When on the field he seemed to pace himself to play big minutes rather than getting stuck in
    mrbrownstone
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    Post by mrbrownstone Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:39 pm

    Regulator wrote:

    Berry is the future at centre for the Warriors, and had some good games last year. He's also better than Pompey.

    Arthas is on loan for a year.

    I think he probably starts the year at centre, but I wouldn't be at all shocked if there's reshuffles if/when we lose a few early. Arthars in, Aitken back to CTR, or even Montoya to CTR and Kosi/Ratuva on the wing are all possible threats.

    Just doesn't tick many boxes for me. Maybe 2 points of value based on last year's avg in 80 min games (before accounting for TB reduction), in a bottom 8 team, and with average job security at best. Paulo, Tago look far more appealing for dual in that range imo.

    Can see why you'd go there too - dual, potential improvement in his second year, and a good early Warriors draw, but not for me.

    mintotheimmortal
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    Post by mintotheimmortal Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:44 pm

    Talking league podcast with hook just dropped and he mentions bird starting in the forwards looking to give him the opportunity to play long minutes in the middle
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:48 pm

    mintotheimmortal wrote:Talking league podcast with hook just dropped and he mentions bird starting in the forwards looking to give him the opportunity to play long minutes in the middle
    Love that he is getting head coaches on the show.
    White Lightning
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    Post by White Lightning Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:12 pm

    If Peachey starts at lock is he a better option than Utoi...he is cheaper & has upside dpp
    Honey Badger
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    Post by Honey Badger Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:31 pm

    White Lightning wrote:If Peachey starts at lock is he a better option than Utoi...he is cheaper & has upside dpp

    Hasn't Madge come out and talked about Peacheys utility value.
    At least with Uto you know what his role will be each week
    Regulator
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    Post by Regulator Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:36 pm

    mrbrownstone wrote:

    I think he probably starts the year at centre, but I wouldn't be at all shocked if there's reshuffles if/when we lose a few early. Arthars in, Aitken back to CTR, or even Montoya to CTR and Kosi/Ratuva on the wing are all possible threats.

    Just doesn't tick many boxes for me. Maybe 2 points of value based on last year's avg in 80 min games (before accounting for TB reduction), in a bottom 8 team, and with average job security at best. Paulo, Tago look far more appealing for dual in that range imo.

    Can see why you'd go there too - dual, potential improvement in his second year, and a good early Warriors draw, but not for me.


    I've got pretty much no interest from a fantasy perspective, seems weird to me that I've seen him in so many teams. I just wouldn't be worried about his place in the team.

    Do hope Ratuva gets a run sooner rather than later.
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:42 pm

    White Lightning wrote:If Peachey starts at lock is he a better option than Utoi...he is cheaper & has upside dpp

    Would rather Mann if he starts with same DPP as Peachey
    mrbrownstone
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    Post by mrbrownstone Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:45 pm

    Regulator wrote:

    I've got pretty much no interest from a fantasy perspective, seems weird to me that I've seen him in so many teams. I just wouldn't be worried about his place in the team.

    Do hope Ratuva gets a run sooner rather than later.

    Yeah fair enough. I think Berry looks a decent player and hope he gets a consistent run, just wouldn't be shocked if a 20-year-old with 8 first grade games to his name gets shuffled around a bit when we start losing.
    Lchy
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    Post by Lchy Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:52 pm

    White Lightning wrote:If Peachey starts at lock is he a better option than Utoi...he is cheaper & has upside dpp

    You reckon Peachey averages 50s? Even with a more consistent role but in a worse team I can't really see where he gets 10 points from. Slightly undervalued sure but I'd definitely still lean Uto at this point
    The Dolphin Conspiracies
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    Post by The Dolphin Conspiracies Fri Feb 11, 2022 8:04 pm

    mintotheimmortal wrote:Talking league podcast with hook just dropped and he mentions bird starting in the forwards looking to give him the opportunity to play long minutes in the middle

    Nice pick-up. Bird has not left my drafts yet and if this hold true will not for R1
    mintotheimmortal
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    Post by mintotheimmortal Fri Feb 11, 2022 8:07 pm

    The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

    Nice pick-up. Bird has not left my drafts yet and if this hold true will not for R1

    He was in my original draft but eventually leant towards aitken and burton. Now shuffling things around to have all 3 of them
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Fri Feb 11, 2022 8:18 pm


    Problem with Bird is dragons also have De Belin and McGuire who are also capable of playing big minutes at lock.

    Will Bird definitely have a secure starting spot long term?
    mintotheimmortal
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    Post by mintotheimmortal Fri Feb 11, 2022 8:36 pm

    Milchcow wrote:
    Problem with Bird is dragons also have De Belin and McGuire who are also capable of playing big minutes at lock.

    Will Bird definitely have a secure starting spot long term?

    Obviously no guarantee but the wording from hook seems to indicate that big minutes for bird are in their plans at the moment
    Lemmy KGB
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    Post by Lemmy KGB Fri Feb 11, 2022 8:37 pm

    my tv broke wrote:

    Paulo seems the obvious choice of the lot to me. Almost too obvious.

    His stats look muck so I dismissed. Guess we could hope for some improvement @ CTR.
    Lemmy KGB
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    Post by Lemmy KGB Fri Feb 11, 2022 8:42 pm

    mattnz wrote:

    Just 3 important things you have missed about Berry:
    1. Playing right center outside SJ
    2. Easiest draw for the first 5 rounds in the comp
    3. In QLD Cup last year he averaged 57 points, with 4 tries and 2 assists in 3 games. I hate it when my centers are that bad on attack.

    I ain't picking a dude off 3 QLD cup games and ignoring everything else.

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