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    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:03 pm

    Honey Badger wrote:IF Taylan May gets a wing spot over Staines I'll pick him over all the others

    Then all the Crichton fans get really disappointed when they line up May left center, Crichton right wing.
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:17 pm

    filthridden wrote:People need to pump the breaks on Rocco Berry and realise that even though he's going to be a great player, that great player is being the next Dean Whare.
    Great defensively, not particularly exciting on attack, unlikely to score well in fantasy.

    He'll likely be the one pushed to the wing if a winger goes down mid-game so that doesn't help either.

    Just 3 important things you have missed about Berry:
    1. Playing right center outside SJ
    2. Easiest draw for the first 5 rounds in the comp
    3. In QLD Cup last year he averaged 57 points, with 4 tries and 2 assists in 3 games. I hate it when my centers are that bad on attack.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:19 pm


    Panthers have lost basically everyone that played centre for them last year except for Stephen Crichton (importantly 2 of the players that have left are the 2 people that played centre the last time Crichton was forced to the wing)

    Why would they move their last centre out of position to accommodate a 1 game rookie

    I mean, if it happens it happens, but it seems quite low on the probability scale.
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:27 pm

    Milchcow wrote:Panthers have lost basically everyone that played centre for them last year except for Steohen Crichton (importantly 2 of the players that have left are the 2 people that played centre the last time Crichton was forced to the wing)

    Why would they move their last centre out of position to accommodate a 1 game rookie

    I mean, if it happens it happens, but it seems quite low on the probability scale.

    Crichton played 13 games at fullback and wing last season. He fits the definition of being versatile, not a specialist center.

    If they like May at center and don't want to continue the Staines experiment, Crichton likely ends up on the wing.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:31 pm


    Last year Jesse Ramien averaged 52 in games without Shaun Johnson

    When Johnson and Ramien both played that rose to 47

    Giving Ramien a Johnson bonus of -5 points a game

    I don't think Shaun Johnson is the attacking stats bonanza you think he is
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:37 pm

    Milchcow wrote:
    Last year Jesse Ramien averaged 52 in games without Shaun Johnson

    When Johnson and Ramien both played that rose to 47

    Giving Ramien a Johnson bonus of -5 points a game

    I don't think Shaun Johnson is the attacking stats bonanza you think he is

    I'll take a 47 average
    mrbrownstone
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    Post by mrbrownstone Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:43 pm

    Is Berry even guaranteed a spot? He'll probably be there round 1, but when Walsh is back I wouldn't be shocked to see:

    1. Walsh
    2. DWZ
    3. Arthars
    4. Pompey
    5. Montoya

    Also the risk of Aitken moving back to CTR and pushing Berry out when Tohu returns.
    sajjos
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    Post by sajjos Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:47 pm

    Have we talked about Stimson yet?
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:54 pm

    mrbrownstone wrote:Is Berry even guaranteed a spot? He'll probably be there round 1, but when Walsh is back I wouldn't be shocked to see:

    1. Walsh
    2. DWZ
    3. Arthars
    4. Pompey
    5. Montoya

    Also the risk of Aitken moving back to CTR and pushing Berry out when Tohu returns.

    Arthars was an extra that couldn't crack the Broncos top 30 this season.
    Honey Badger
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    Post by Honey Badger Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:59 pm

    Milchcow wrote:
    Last year Jesse Ramien averaged 52 in games without Shaun Johnson

    When Johnson and Ramien both played that rose to 47

    Giving Ramien a Johnson bonus of -5 points a game

    I don't think Shaun Johnson is the attacking stats bonanza you think he is

    Isn't SJ more likely to put the 2nd rower through a hole or skip pass to the winger? Id be more worried about the ctr getting cut out than SJ improving their fantasy scores
    Cookie Monster
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    Post by Cookie Monster Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:10 pm

    Milchcow wrote:
    Last year Jesse Ramien averaged 52 in games without Shaun Johnson

    When Johnson and Ramien both played that rose to 47

    Giving Ramien a Johnson bonus of -5 points a game

    I don't think Shaun Johnson is the attacking stats bonanza you think he is


    A negative Johnson bonus. That doesn't sound good Wink
    mrbrownstone
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    Post by mrbrownstone Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:23 pm

    mattnz wrote:

    Arthars was an extra that couldn't crack the Broncos top 30 this season.

    And Berry's a 20-year-old rookie with all of 8 starts in a mostly losing team. He'll likely get the job to start with, but I don't love his security if Arthars and Aitken moving back to centre are both looming threats.
    The Bludger#2
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    Post by The Bludger#2 Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:31 pm

    wolfking wrote:Wait.....did Rabbit just call all of us kents?  That feels weird.

    Yeah...the boy's all growd up now  lol!
    Aardvark
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    Post by Aardvark Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:33 pm

    sajjos wrote:Have we talked about Stimson yet?

    Too busy talking about Davey Very Happy & a bunch of WFBs who may or may not get called up for RD1. It's almost like we need some sort of lineup announcement to help us pick the cheapies rendeer
    The Bludger#2
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    Post by The Bludger#2 Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:49 pm

    On a different note - Middle forwards??
    Everyone's pumping TPJ to have a breakout year (cue: not getting suspended for "accidental" crusher tackles) - I've currently got him as my premium middle.
    But, looking at other options, what are people's thoughts (or better yet a Milchcow stats dive) on James, J. Safiti, Stefano, Paulo (although he's pricey and a direct TPJ swap), Gilbert etc.
    sajjos
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    Post by sajjos Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:53 pm

    If Warriors dont win the first 5 games I know who to blame.
    filthridden
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    Post by filthridden Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:58 pm

    mattnz wrote:

    Just 3 important things you have missed about Berry:
    1. Playing right center outside SJ - I'm assuming you're saying this because you think it means he'll score a bunch of tries? He'll score tries, don't get me wrong but he's a hole runner, he's not going to be busting tackles and stepping like crazy. I refer to my point about him being similar to Dean Whare who also scored a bunch of tries in his heyday but you still wouldn't pick him for your fantasy team. I'd be more worried about him defending next to SJ. Potential for his missed tackles to creep up.
    2. Easiest draw for the first 5 rounds in the comp - the easiest draw in the comp in the first five rounds are whoever the first five team to play the warriors are. No but seriously, we know not to read into the draw too much.
    3. In QLD Cup last year he averaged 57 points, with 4 tries and 2 assists in 3 games. I hate it when my centers are that bad on attack. - This is just silly. 1) You shouldn't be looking at QLD cup stats when the guy has played twice as many games in the NRL already. QLD cup stats are irrelevant at this point. 2) Three games is too small a sample size 3) As I stated earlier, he will score tries but that doesn't necessarily equate to a decent amount of points in fantasy. He's so far scored a try every second game in the NRL which is a fantastic strike rate (some might say unsustainable, especially as a Warriors players) and still only averages around 30.
    mintotheimmortal
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    Post by mintotheimmortal Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:59 pm

    The Bludger#2 wrote:On a different note - Middle forwards??
    Everyone's pumping TPJ to have a breakout year (cue: not getting suspended for "accidental" crusher tackles) - I've currently got him as my premium middle.
    But, looking at other options, what are people's thoughts (or better yet a Milchcow stats dive) on James, J. Safiti, Stefano, Paulo (although he's pricey and a direct TPJ swap), Gilbert etc.

    I like the look of Welch and Stefano. Gilbert if he gets the edge spot with his dpp. But after seeing nanai wearing the 12 jersey at training not sure if gilbert will be starting but if he is I’ll have him
    sajjos
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    Post by sajjos Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:00 pm

    The Bludger#2 wrote:On a different note - Middle forwards??
    Everyone's pumping TPJ to have a breakout year (cue: not getting suspended for "accidental" crusher tackles) - I've currently got him as my premium middle.
    But, looking at other options, what are people's thoughts (or better yet a Milchcow stats dive) on James, J. Safiti, Stefano, Paulo (although he's pricey and a direct TPJ swap), Gilbert etc.

    I almost fell for the "big minutes" Paulo talk last year. This year he is the captain so might finally get consistent 50+ minutes so may be 5-6 points undervalued.
    Fortitude
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    Post by Fortitude Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:26 pm

    sajjos wrote:If when Warriors dont win the first 5 games  I know who to blame.

    Fixed

      Current date/time is Wed Dec 07, 2022 1:32 am