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mattnzHoney Badger wrote:IF Taylan May gets a wing spot over Staines I'll pick him over all the others
Then all the Crichton fans get really disappointed when they line up May left center, Crichton right wing.
NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
mattnz- Fanatic
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- Post n°61
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by mattnz Fri Feb 11, 2022 12:03 pm
Then all the Crichton fans get really disappointed when they line up May left center, Crichton right wing.
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- Post n°62
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by mattnz Fri Feb 11, 2022 12:17 pm
filthridden wrote:People need to pump the breaks on Rocco Berry and realise that even though he's going to be a great player, that great player is being the next Dean Whare.
Great defensively, not particularly exciting on attack, unlikely to score well in fantasy.
He'll likely be the one pushed to the wing if a winger goes down mid-game so that doesn't help either.
Just 3 important things you have missed about Berry:
1. Playing right center outside SJ
2. Easiest draw for the first 5 rounds in the comp
3. In QLD Cup last year he averaged 57 points, with 4 tries and 2 assists in 3 games. I hate it when my centers are that bad on attack.
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- Post n°63
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by Milchcow Fri Feb 11, 2022 12:19 pm
Panthers have lost basically everyone that played centre for them last year except for Stephen Crichton (importantly 2 of the players that have left are the 2 people that played centre the last time Crichton was forced to the wing)
Why would they move their last centre out of position to accommodate a 1 game rookie
I mean, if it happens it happens, but it seems quite low on the probability scale.
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- Post n°64
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by mattnz Fri Feb 11, 2022 12:27 pm
Milchcow wrote:Panthers have lost basically everyone that played centre for them last year except for Steohen Crichton (importantly 2 of the players that have left are the 2 people that played centre the last time Crichton was forced to the wing)
Why would they move their last centre out of position to accommodate a 1 game rookie
I mean, if it happens it happens, but it seems quite low on the probability scale.
Crichton played 13 games at fullback and wing last season. He fits the definition of being versatile, not a specialist center.
If they like May at center and don't want to continue the Staines experiment, Crichton likely ends up on the wing.
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- Post n°65
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by Milchcow Fri Feb 11, 2022 12:31 pm
Last year Jesse Ramien averaged 52 in games without Shaun Johnson
When Johnson and Ramien both played that rose to 47
Giving Ramien a Johnson bonus of -5 points a game
I don't think Shaun Johnson is the attacking stats bonanza you think he is
mattnz- Fanatic
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- Post n°66
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by mattnz Fri Feb 11, 2022 12:37 pm
Milchcow wrote:
Last year Jesse Ramien averaged 52 in games without Shaun Johnson
When Johnson and Ramien both played that rose to 47
Giving Ramien a Johnson bonus of -5 points a game
I don't think Shaun Johnson is the attacking stats bonanza you think he is
I'll take a 47 average
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- Post n°67
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by mrbrownstone Fri Feb 11, 2022 12:43 pm
Is Berry even guaranteed a spot? He'll probably be there round 1, but when Walsh is back I wouldn't be shocked to see:
1. Walsh
2. DWZ
3. Arthars
4. Pompey
5. Montoya
Also the risk of Aitken moving back to CTR and pushing Berry out when Tohu returns.
1. Walsh
2. DWZ
3. Arthars
4. Pompey
5. Montoya
Also the risk of Aitken moving back to CTR and pushing Berry out when Tohu returns.
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- Post n°68
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by sajjos Fri Feb 11, 2022 12:47 pm
Have we talked about Stimson yet?
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- Post n°69
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by mattnz Fri Feb 11, 2022 12:54 pm
mrbrownstone wrote:Is Berry even guaranteed a spot? He'll probably be there round 1, but when Walsh is back I wouldn't be shocked to see:
1. Walsh
2. DWZ
3. Arthars
4. Pompey
5. Montoya
Also the risk of Aitken moving back to CTR and pushing Berry out when Tohu returns.
Arthars was an extra that couldn't crack the Broncos top 30 this season.
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- Post n°70
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by Honey Badger Fri Feb 11, 2022 12:59 pm
Milchcow wrote:
Last year Jesse Ramien averaged 52 in games without Shaun Johnson
When Johnson and Ramien both played that rose to 47
Giving Ramien a Johnson bonus of -5 points a game
I don't think Shaun Johnson is the attacking stats bonanza you think he is
Isn't SJ more likely to put the 2nd rower through a hole or skip pass to the winger? Id be more worried about the ctr getting cut out than SJ improving their fantasy scores
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- Post n°71
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by Cookie Monster Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:10 pm
Milchcow wrote:
Last year Jesse Ramien averaged 52 in games without Shaun Johnson
When Johnson and Ramien both played that rose to 47
Giving Ramien a Johnson bonus of -5 points a game
I don't think Shaun Johnson is the attacking stats bonanza you think he is
A negative Johnson bonus. That doesn't sound good
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- Post n°72
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by mrbrownstone Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:23 pm
mattnz wrote:
Arthars was an extra that couldn't crack the Broncos top 30 this season.
And Berry's a 20-year-old rookie with all of 8 starts in a mostly losing team. He'll likely get the job to start with, but I don't love his security if Arthars and Aitken moving back to centre are both looming threats.
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- Post n°73
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by The Bludger#2 Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:31 pm
wolfking wrote:Wait.....did Rabbit just call all of us kents? That feels weird.
Yeah...the boy's all growd up now
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- Post n°74
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by Aardvark Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:33 pm
sajjos wrote:Have we talked about Stimson yet?
Too busy talking about Davey
& a bunch of WFBs who may or may not get called up for RD1. It's almost like we need some sort of lineup announcement to help us pick the cheapies 
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- Post n°75
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by The Bludger#2 Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:49 pm
On a different note - Middle forwards??
Everyone's pumping TPJ to have a breakout year (cue: not getting suspended for "accidental" crusher tackles) - I've currently got him as my premium middle.
But, looking at other options, what are people's thoughts (or better yet a Milchcow stats dive) on James, J. Safiti, Stefano, Paulo (although he's pricey and a direct TPJ swap), Gilbert etc.
Everyone's pumping TPJ to have a breakout year (cue: not getting suspended for "accidental" crusher tackles) - I've currently got him as my premium middle.
But, looking at other options, what are people's thoughts (or better yet a Milchcow stats dive) on James, J. Safiti, Stefano, Paulo (although he's pricey and a direct TPJ swap), Gilbert etc.
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- Post n°76
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by sajjos Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:53 pm
If Warriors dont win the first 5 games I know who to blame.
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- Post n°77
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by filthridden Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:58 pm
mattnz wrote:
Just 3 important things you have missed about Berry:
1. Playing right center outside SJ - I'm assuming you're saying this because you think it means he'll score a bunch of tries? He'll score tries, don't get me wrong but he's a hole runner, he's not going to be busting tackles and stepping like crazy. I refer to my point about him being similar to Dean Whare who also scored a bunch of tries in his heyday but you still wouldn't pick him for your fantasy team. I'd be more worried about him defending next to SJ. Potential for his missed tackles to creep up.
2. Easiest draw for the first 5 rounds in the comp - the easiest draw in the comp in the first five rounds are whoever the first five team to play the warriors are. No but seriously, we know not to read into the draw too much.
3. In QLD Cup last year he averaged 57 points, with 4 tries and 2 assists in 3 games. I hate it when my centers are that bad on attack. - This is just silly. 1) You shouldn't be looking at QLD cup stats when the guy has played twice as many games in the NRL already. QLD cup stats are irrelevant at this point. 2) Three games is too small a sample size 3) As I stated earlier, he will score tries but that doesn't necessarily equate to a decent amount of points in fantasy. He's so far scored a try every second game in the NRL which is a fantastic strike rate (some might say unsustainable, especially as a Warriors players) and still only averages around 30.
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- Post n°78
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by mintotheimmortal Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:59 pm
The Bludger#2 wrote:On a different note - Middle forwards??
Everyone's pumping TPJ to have a breakout year (cue: not getting suspended for "accidental" crusher tackles) - I've currently got him as my premium middle.
But, looking at other options, what are people's thoughts (or better yet a Milchcow stats dive) on James, J. Safiti, Stefano, Paulo (although he's pricey and a direct TPJ swap), Gilbert etc.
I like the look of Welch and Stefano. Gilbert if he gets the edge spot with his dpp. But after seeing nanai wearing the 12 jersey at training not sure if gilbert will be starting but if he is I’ll have him
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- Post n°79
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by sajjos Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:00 pm
The Bludger#2 wrote:On a different note - Middle forwards??
Everyone's pumping TPJ to have a breakout year (cue: not getting suspended for "accidental" crusher tackles) - I've currently got him as my premium middle.
But, looking at other options, what are people's thoughts (or better yet a Milchcow stats dive) on James, J. Safiti, Stefano, Paulo (although he's pricey and a direct TPJ swap), Gilbert etc.
I almost fell for the "big minutes" Paulo talk last year. This year he is the captain so might finally get consistent 50+ minutes so may be 5-6 points undervalued.
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- Post n°80
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by Fortitude Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:26 pm
sajjos wrote:Ifwhen Warriors dont win the first 5 games I know who to blame.
Fixed
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