NRL Fantasy Fanatics



Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NRL Fantasy Fanatics

NRL Fantasy Fanatics - A place for discussion of NRL Fantasy / Virtual Sports / Super Coach and other Fantasy Sports

    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

    robelgordo
    robelgordo

    Posts : 7094
    Reputation : 3755
    Join date : 2019-07-08
    Location : Sydney

    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average - Page 2 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

    Post by robelgordo Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:29 pm

    Milchcow wrote:Not a lot of games in 2021. but in 2020, once you account for 2 point TBs, Perira scored under 27 (his 2022 priced average) in 8 of 15 games.

    He barely ever cracks 40 points.

    In a season with plenty of cheap WFB/CTR options looking viable I just don't see how he is going to make enough cash to be worthwhile.

    In Pereiras defence it felt like the Dragons sent about 80% of the ball to the Lomax/Rava side and the other 20% stopped at Aitken because he doesn’t pass to a winger. Teams also kicked the other way because Rava was a liability under the ball. So he did a lot fantasy-wise with very little. But it’s a big if to think he nails down a long-term position and gets more opportunities and so on. I’d go Coates.
    wolfking
    wolfking
    Fanatics Immortal

    Posts : 28580
    Reputation : 9764
    Join date : 2016-04-26
    Age : 37
    Location : Brisbane

    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average - Page 2 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

    Post by wolfking Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:03 pm

    Wait.....did Rabbit just call all of us kents? That feels weird.
    Rabbits21
    Rabbits21

    Posts : 9400
    Reputation : 3369
    Join date : 2019-07-24

    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average - Page 2 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

    Post by Rabbits21 Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:13 pm

    mattnz wrote:

    Yeah I am looking to play Paulo in my 17. Should be much safer than either at a similar price point and will get dual, if he starts at left center round 1 as expected.
    Just be aware Souths have a very hard draw the first month. It’s an unknown as to how Paulo will score at centre too. Obviously the upside is he’s playing on our left edge which is where most of our attack goes.

    I will watch him closely in the Charity Shield.
    Finger Puppet Mafia
    Finger Puppet Mafia

    Posts : 841
    Reputation : 179
    Join date : 2015-11-05

    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average - Page 2 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

    Post by Finger Puppet Mafia Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:13 pm

    What's all this Penisini love? Does he play centre or wing?
    Rabbits21
    Rabbits21

    Posts : 9400
    Reputation : 3369
    Join date : 2019-07-24

    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average - Page 2 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

    Post by Rabbits21 Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:14 pm

    Finger Puppet Mafia wrote:What's all this Penisini love? Does he play centre or wing?
    He starts at centre. I see value there I liked what I saw at the back end of last year.

    Got good JS too. I think priced at 28 I see 6-7 points upside there minimum.

    He hasn’t left pretty much all my drafts.
    Mulvy
    Mulvy
    Moderator

    Posts : 17101
    Reputation : 8926
    Join date : 2016-01-26
    Location : Mulvania

    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average - Page 2 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

    Post by Mulvy Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:34 pm

    wolfking wrote:Wait.....did Rabbit just call all of us kents?  That feels weird.

    All the time I'm sure...on here? I missed it.
    The Pascoe Fiasco
    The Pascoe Fiasco

    Posts : 1472
    Reputation : 650
    Join date : 2019-02-03

    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average - Page 2 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

    Post by The Pascoe Fiasco Thu Feb 10, 2022 11:27 pm

    Finger Puppet Mafia wrote:What's all this Penisini love? Does he play centre or wing?
    Penis love -as Seinfeld says “not that there’s anything wrong with that”!
    B/L
    B/L

    Posts : 2831
    Reputation : 1756
    Join date : 2016-01-12

    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average - Page 2 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

    Post by B/L Thu Feb 10, 2022 11:38 pm

    Kent is my word. Kents
    Mulvy
    Mulvy
    Moderator

    Posts : 17101
    Reputation : 8926
    Join date : 2016-01-26
    Location : Mulvania

    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average - Page 2 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

    Post by Mulvy Thu Feb 10, 2022 11:39 pm

    The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:
    Penis love -as Seinfeld says “not that there’s anything wrong with that”!

    Chocolate or Cinnamon Babka?
    wolfking
    wolfking
    Fanatics Immortal

    Posts : 28580
    Reputation : 9764
    Join date : 2016-04-26
    Age : 37
    Location : Brisbane

    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average - Page 2 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

    Post by wolfking Fri Feb 11, 2022 8:29 am

    Mulvy wrote:

    All the time I'm sure...on here? I missed it.

    First post in the thread......hmmm.....maybe Rabbit is actually slug......
    wolfking
    wolfking
    Fanatics Immortal

    Posts : 28580
    Reputation : 9764
    Join date : 2016-04-26
    Age : 37
    Location : Brisbane

    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average - Page 2 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

    Post by wolfking Fri Feb 11, 2022 8:30 am

    Mulvy wrote:

    Chocolate or Cinnamon Babka?

    Black and White Cookie for me. We must look to the cookie.
    MayorofAlburquerque
    MayorofAlburquerque

    Posts : 92
    Reputation : 238
    Join date : 2019-01-09

    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average - Page 2 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

    Post by MayorofAlburquerque Fri Feb 11, 2022 8:33 am

    Howdy Y'all,

    Hope you've all got your spreadsheets warmed up. Last year's acquisition didn't pan out, so the Mayor is buying up another small-town sports team (or maybe the Dallas Cowboys) for 2022.

    Best of luck to you all this year.

    The Mayor
    my tv broke
    my tv broke
    Fanatics Immortal

    Posts : 21017
    Reputation : 11767
    Join date : 2016-01-08
    Location : Fantasy Island

    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average - Page 2 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

    Post by my tv broke Fri Feb 11, 2022 8:33 am

    mattnz wrote:

    Yeah I am looking to play Paulo in my 17. Should be much safer than either at a similar price point and will get dual, if he starts at left center round 1 as expected.

    Paulo seems the obvious choice of the lot to me. Almost too obvious.
    my tv broke
    my tv broke
    Fanatics Immortal

    Posts : 21017
    Reputation : 11767
    Join date : 2016-01-08
    Location : Fantasy Island

    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average - Page 2 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

    Post by my tv broke Fri Feb 11, 2022 8:44 am

    Dylan Napa just got sent off for a shoulder charge in his first game of super league. Not watching myself but it sounds like a bad one.

    EDIT - Video - https://twitter.com/MartinJGabor/status/1491890983164071936
    wolfking
    wolfking
    Fanatics Immortal

    Posts : 28580
    Reputation : 9764
    Join date : 2016-04-26
    Age : 37
    Location : Brisbane

    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average - Page 2 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

    Post by wolfking Fri Feb 11, 2022 8:50 am

    my tv broke wrote:Dylan Napa just got sent off for a shoulder charge in his first game of super league. Not watching myself but it sounds like a bad one.

    EDIT - Video - https://twitter.com/MartinJGabor/status/1491890983164071936

    I'm shocked.
    Goodnight Kiwi
    Goodnight Kiwi

    Posts : 935
    Reputation : 773
    Join date : 2018-01-09
    Location : Wellington

    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average - Page 2 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

    Post by Goodnight Kiwi Fri Feb 11, 2022 9:52 am

    I guess time and TLT will tell, but a lot of chat on Paulo now. The debate seems to be Coates v Paulo. While Tago is last week's news?

    Would go Tago ahead of both myself currently...
    my tv broke
    my tv broke
    Fanatics Immortal

    Posts : 21017
    Reputation : 11767
    Join date : 2016-01-08
    Location : Fantasy Island

    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average - Page 2 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

    Post by my tv broke Fri Feb 11, 2022 9:53 am

    Goodnight Kiwi wrote:I guess time and TLT will tell, but a lot of chat on Paulo now. The debate seems to be Coates v Paulo. While Tago is last week's news?

    Would go Tago ahead of both myself currently...

    they are dif positions (altho paulo would get ctr dpp if named there)

    tago seems an easy selection too
    Milchcow
    Milchcow
    Moderator

    Posts : 19886
    Reputation : 11783
    Join date : 2015-07-31

    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average - Page 2 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

    Post by Milchcow Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:04 am

    Here are some of your $350k or lower outside backs, and why you should rush them into your team.


    Jordan Pereira $327k (priced at 26)
    Averaged 36 last year from 3 games, but is a Tackle Break king (averaged 5 a game over those 3 games) and will get hit hard by the nerfing.
    2020 he averaged about 31 after accounting for TBs. Leads to him being 5 points underpriced if he maintains his performance. So to get reasonable value you want him to score more tries (he has just 2 in his last 18 games) he's not a big offloader, so if he doesn't escape from the ingoal more hard to see where extra points come from

    Xavier Coates $330 (27)

    He already scores a bunch of tries, but the hope is that moving to Melbourne will increase that even further.  George Jennings averaged 35 as Melbourne winger last year, I guess that is the hope for Coates. Basically a small increase across a whole bunch of stats that add up to reasonable value.

    Will Penisini $350k (28)
    Averaged 32 across his 3 games at centre last year. Has apparently beaten out last year's choice Tom Opacic to get a first grade spot. Not sure how secure his spot will be if he has a poor run of form.
    I assume the theory is that in his 2nd year of first grade he'll improve and get some better stats


    Jaxson Paulo $327k (26)

    Priced at about last years average. But he played winger last year and his moving to centre in 2022. Rabbitohs centres generally seem to score well, and being inside a bit should lift his base stats enough. He got a 9 in 80 minutes last year, and that floor should rise being closer to the action.

    Joseph Suaalii $350k (28)
    He's mega hyped and this year doesn't even need an exemption to take the field. Priced slightly above his average, so he'll need to improve his stats in order to give value. Might happen given the off-season should have been great for his physical development. Not even guaranteed a first grade start, so a definite wait and see at this point.


    Stephen Crichton $350k (28)
    Comfortably averages mid 30s as a centre. Fanhub guy entering the prices just put a 3 instead of a 4 when he got to Crichton, so just take advantage of the discount and put him in your team.


    Izack Tago  $334k (27)
    Rumoured to be Crichton's centre partner. Played as an interchange forward last year so hard to get a read on what his stats will be at centre. Just assume they are going to be however high you need to justify putting him in your team, I guess.


    William Kei $220k (18)
    Tigers need a centre and all the likely candidates are injured. step up William Kei, who has the advantage of being base price. Even if he doesn't get the spot, whoever does play there is likely to be equally cheap, unless they move a forward out there. He plays for Tigers though, and job security likely dependent on how quickly guys like Doieihi/Talau/Kepoa can heal


    Last edited by Milchcow on Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:06 am; edited 3 times in total
    Fortitude
    Fortitude

    Posts : 4050
    Reputation : 2125
    Join date : 2016-02-25
    Location : National Capital

    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average - Page 2 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

    Post by Fortitude Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:05 am

    My casual observer opinion: Coates has a S.Earl vibe about him. Scores a handful of decent tries, an athlete, but not really special enough to regularly impact a game. Doesn’t do enough work, just has ability to do a brilliant thing often enough to maintain relevance.

    My dislike of the broncos aside, their whole backline, outside of farnworth and staggs are trash. The hype about Cobo, and continued support of Niu I swear it’s only a thing because people a grasping to for positives in their back line.

    Anywho, that’s my morning rant on the throne.
    my tv broke
    my tv broke
    Fanatics Immortal

    Posts : 21017
    Reputation : 11767
    Join date : 2016-01-08
    Location : Fantasy Island

    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average - Page 2 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

    Post by my tv broke Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:10 am

    Fortitude wrote:My dislike of the broncos aside, their whole backline, outside of farnworth and staggs are trash. The hype about Cobo, and continued support of Niu I swear it’s only a thing because people a grasping to for positives in their back line.

    I actually think Cobbo could be a better player than Coates.

    Niu, who cares. I don't think anyone is really that hyped on him ?

      Current date/time is Sun May 22, 2022 11:32 am