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    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler

    easytiger
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    Post by easytiger Sat May 01, 2021 10:32 am

    @Chewie wrote:Thanks for the feedback lads.
    And yes every team needs at least one knob...and an enforcer... and a guy that never shuts up and tells everyone what to do

    What about every fantasy forum?
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    Post by Chewie Sat May 01, 2021 10:39 am

    @easytiger wrote:

    What about every fantasy forum?

    Haha yes, for a fantasy forum just add some spreadsheet junkies and someone with a broken tv
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    Post by Chewie Sat May 01, 2021 10:39 am

    And a couple softcocks
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Sat May 01, 2021 10:40 am

    And a few accountants
    sajjos
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    Post by sajjos Sat May 01, 2021 10:43 am

    @Chewie wrote:Thanks for the feedback lads.
    And yes every team needs at least one knob...and an enforcer... and a guy that never shuts up and tells everyone what to do

    That will will be TJ Perenera when he joins the Roosters.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Sat May 01, 2021 10:47 am


    Tigers are the beneficiaries this time, but I'm surprised NRL allowed Cini to come in from outside the 21 man squad with Chee-Kam named on the extended bench.

    Teams seem to have had more justifiable requests turned down in the past.
    easytiger
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    Post by easytiger Sat May 01, 2021 10:48 am

    @Chewie wrote:And a few accountants

    and more accountants

    And some school teachers...
    standard-issue
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    Post by standard-issue Sat May 01, 2021 10:49 am

    @Rippin and Tearin wrote:
    @FaringdonSwirl wrote:

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler - Page 4 Giphy

    Would be interested in the math if you can be bothered

    Yes, of course. The gist of it is pretty simple. The detail can get a little complicated.

    First, the math assumes that each of the five outcomes are 50-50, and that each are independent. Both these assumptions can be argued, but generally fair to assume both I reckon.

    Then, in terms of figuring out what cut the house (draft stars) is taking:

    For the option where you need to pick 5 out of 5, that is a one in 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 chance. This means that of 32 different people each take one combination (and all combinations are taken), one will get it correct.

    So 32 people pay $20 = $640 but draft stars only pays out $400. So their cut is $240 profit out of $640 invested = 240/640 = 37.5%

    For the option where you need to get 3/5 (or more) correct, the math is a little more complicated. Its based on something called a Bernoulli trial. A Bernoulli trial is a random experiment with two outcomes, success and failure, where the probability of success is the same every time.

    This online calculator https://planetcalc.com/7044/ allows you to calculate the probability of k success outcomes in n Bernoulli trials with given success event probability.

    In short though, out of the 32 potential outcomes from the 5 options, 50% of them reflect 3 or more successes. I.e. if you randomly chose 5 guys in the draftstars comp, you will get 3/5 (or more right) on average.

    So, if 2 people pay $20 = $40 draft starts will pay out on average $1.8 *20 = $36, So their cut is $4 profit out of $40 = 10%

    Hopefully that is explained well enough...?

    Edit: Its actually calculating the probability of k successes where the math gets a little intense (but still very much learnable)

    P(k)={n \choose k}p^{k}q^{n-k}

    see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli_trial


    I can lift heavy things.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Sat May 01, 2021 10:49 am

    @Milchcow wrote:
    Tigers are the beneficiaries this time, but I'm surprised NRL allowed Cini to come in from outside the 21 man squad with Chee-Kam named on the extended bench.

    Teams seem to have had more justifiable requests turned down in the past.

    Unless Laurie is out too and Chee-Kam already into the 17
    Kane
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    Post by Kane Sat May 01, 2021 10:49 am

    @Milchcow wrote:
    Tigers are the beneficiaries this time, but I'm surprised NRL allowed Cini to come in from outside the 21 man squad with Chee-Kam named on the extended bench.

    Teams seem to have had more justifiable requests turned down in the past.

    I just came on to ask this question. Good for them it was approved but im very surprised they were allowed to since Mbye and Chee-Kam both have played centre for them this year and in the 21
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Sat May 01, 2021 10:50 am

    @standard-issue wrote:


    I can lift heavy things.

    This is a metaphor for SI doing all the backend work on mtb's site to make sure everything runs smoothly
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    Post by standard-issue Sat May 01, 2021 10:51 am

    @Chewie wrote:And a couple softcocks

    I resemble that.
    standard-issue
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    Post by standard-issue Sat May 01, 2021 10:53 am

    @Kane wrote:
    @Milchcow wrote:
    Tigers are the beneficiaries this time, but I'm surprised NRL allowed Cini to come in from outside the 21 man squad with Chee-Kam named on the extended bench.

    Teams seem to have had more justifiable requests turned down in the past.

    I just came on to ask this question. Good for them it was approved but im very surprised they were allowed to since Mbye and Chee-Kam both have played centre for them this year and in the 21

    Was just about to third these sentiments and saw Milchy’s clarification. Does seem strange so yeah, maybe both Joberts and Daurie are out?
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    Post by Milchcow Sat May 01, 2021 10:54 am


    Roberts out means I'm definitely bringing Hampton in over Walsh

    Might need his CTR again next week if Roberts misses another game

    And I'm playing with 16 this week, but I guess there will be a few in that position.
    Khany
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    Post by Khany Sat May 01, 2021 10:54 am

    Koros mins in the future are a concern with May and Coach Cleary
    standard-issue
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    Post by standard-issue Sat May 01, 2021 10:56 am

    @Milchcow wrote:
    @standard-issue wrote:


    I can lift heavy things.

    This is a metaphor for SI doing all the backend work on mtb's site to make sure everything runs smoothly

    Recognised!

    MTB is the singing guitarist who gets all the Fantasy groupies; I’m the drummer driving things with my big kit out the back.
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    Post by standard-issue Sat May 01, 2021 10:57 am

    @standard-issue wrote:
    @Milchcow wrote:
    @standard-issue wrote:


    I can lift heavy things.

    This is a metaphor for SI doing all the backend work on mtb's site to make sure everything runs smoothly

    Recognised!

    MTB is the singing guitarist who gets all the Fantasy groupies; I’m the drummer driving things with my big kit out the back.

    Wait, that analogy seemed a bit off.
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Sat May 01, 2021 10:57 am

    @sajjos wrote:@multiple.scoregasms You ended up playing Reimis ?

    Would have played him over Roberts, but needed to play both for 17. Now with Roberts out I'm back to 16
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    Post by standard-issue Sat May 01, 2021 10:57 am

    Oh gee whiz, I shouldn’t have said analogy.
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Sat May 01, 2021 10:59 am

    On the gambling statistics, there is actually a course I did at Macquarie based on sports and gambling statistics (https://unitguides.mq.edu.au/unit_offerings/22615/unit_guide)

    Feel like a lot here would be the type to also choose it

      Current date/time is Sat May 15, 2021 1:00 pm