NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 15 - Let the raging begin

@Milchcow wrote:
Looks like I'll be a little bit short for Lodge to Ofa in one.

So probably find whatever downgrade I need amongst others to get that cash.

Crichton out as well next week means I might have to Host again, but worse things have happened.

With Host on a few out lists you know he’ll go well next week. It’s how fantasy works

@mattnz wrote:
I expect this to be one of his lower scores and should be a keeper. Gets really involved, is their best attacking threat.

If that level of involvement continues then he should get some 70s to go along with his 40s. Not a bad pick as long as you picked him as well as not instead of Fifita.

Just a reminder that not having the best cows in R1 really doesn't mean anything. Yes, you've got to trade but you only really miss out on 30k cash or so. Consider R1 a look at how interchanges are being used for each team ect. and if you luck out on a good cow it's just a bonus. There really wasn't a lot of certainty around many cow's roles and we all had sound justifications for all our starting teams. It doesn't seem like anyone here has >2 fires to put out at worst which is amazing. I think MTB was 3000 after round 3 or so last year and finished top 20 which goes to show a strong start doesn't mean much.

Also worth mentioning that as rounds continue players regress (or progress) towards around about where they're going to average for the whole year. Be careful of bringing in players who randomly scored really high. Throw back to 2018 or so when I brought in Mbye after a 101 performance. Got HIAed in the first 2 minutes the next round for -1

981 sees me outside the top 1000, which is bloody remarkable for week 1.

No burning issues, so I shouldn’t trade.

But I have the self control of a three year old in a lolly shop so might go BS9+LCroker > Ofa+Milf

@surmo13 wrote:

had one big effort that was as good as a try, shrugged off 3-4 really shitty attempts at tackles and put his winger over in the corner

Cheers mate, missed the game sleeping off a heavy can evening

@Welshy wrote:
Good luck pal, just think it’s extremely tough for a pure edge rower to hit those elite edge keeper scores.

Expecting him to be a bit like Matterson. Lower scores in the 50s, big scores in the 80-100 range

@Welshy wrote:
Really think Lucy will have to go some to better last year by enough to make him worthwhile mate, otherwise he doesn’t make enough cash and isn’t a keeper.

I think if you started with him, you'd just have to classify him as a keeper.  I think he'll put up decent enough scores to have him sit there all year.  Basically paying for what you get.

@rhinoceroo wrote:

If that level of involvement continues then he should get some 70s to go along with his 40s. Not a bad pick as long as you picked him as well as not instead of Fifita.

Have both, Fifita likely my captain this week

@ytsb wrote:Just a reminder that not having the best cows in R1 really doesn't mean anything. Yes, you've got to trade but you only really miss out on 30k cash or so. Consider R1 a look at how interchanges are being used for each team ect. and if you luck out on a good cow it's just a bonus. There really wasn't a lot of certainty around many cow's roles and we all had sound justifications for all our starting teams. It doesn't seem like anyone here has >2 fires to put out at worst which is amazing. I think MTB was 3000 after round 3 or so last year and finished top 20 which goes to show a strong start doesn't mean much.

Also worth mentioning that as rounds continue players regress (or progress) towards around about where they're going to average for the whole year. Be careful of bringing in players who randomly scored really high. Throw back to 2018 or so when I brought in Mbye after a 101 performance. Got HIAed in the first 2 minutes the next round for -1

Hell yeah - regression to the mean! Sing it sister!!!!

Praise be to stats!

@mattnz wrote:
Expecting him to be a bit like Matterson. Lower scores in the 50s, big scores in the 80-100 range

Matterson averages 7 more tackles and 30RM a game more than Lucy mate, pretty much what the difference in scoring average is, tough racking up those tackles wider like Lucy defends. Like I said will have to go huge in the try department to get up to and past 60

@ytsb wrote:Just a reminder that not having the best cows in R1 really doesn't mean anything. Yes, you've got to trade but you only really miss out on 30k cash or so. Consider R1 a look at how interchanges are being used for each team ect. and if you luck out on a good cow it's just a bonus. There really wasn't a lot of certainty around many cow's roles and we all had sound justifications for all our starting teams. It doesn't seem like anyone here has >2 fires to put out at worst which is amazing. I think MTB was 3000 after round 3 or so last year and finished top 20 which goes to show a strong start doesn't mean much.

Also worth mentioning that as rounds continue players regress (or progress) towards around about where they're going to average for the whole year. Be careful of bringing in players who randomly scored really high. Throw back to 2018 or so when I brought in Mbye after a 101 performance. Got HIAed in the first 2 minutes the next round for -1

Haha, I did this too.

I have a slightly different dilemma to most, went 928, no teddy no Cleary. Also started with Radley... So now I'm pondering whether I stick with Radley (not sure if Friend out is necessarily a good thing for his scores or not) or not. I could dump him and say updgade Tino, or RTS to Teddy (though I do like RTS this year still) or any other play. Since essentially I could treat Radley as starting with some bank. Dunno. Probably last minute decision on Thurs minutes before lockout I guess

Tempted by Leniu, great to watch but can't see him playing bigger minutes with his thousand mile an hour style. Eisenhuth likely to be the minute man on Panthers bench. He'll score great PPM and a try would rocket his cash generation but mid-30s average probably not quite worth the trade. On fence.

@Archer wrote:I have a slightly different dilemma to most, went 928, no teddy no  Cleary. Also started with Radley... So now I'm pondering whether I stick with Radley (not sure if Friend out is necessarily a good thing for his scores or not) or not. I could dump him and say updgade Tino, or RTS to Teddy (though I do like RTS this year still) or any other play. Since essentially I could treat Radley as starting with some bank. Dunno. Probably last minute decision on Thurs minutes before lockout I guess

Radley has said he expects to come back on the bench. Only worth keeping if back in his 60+ minute lock role. Doubt that happens to start. Would trade him.

Tino is a hold. 65 minutes, lots of negatives and still got a break even score.

@Archer wrote:I have a slightly different dilemma to most, went 928, no teddy no  Cleary. Also started with Radley... So now I'm pondering whether I stick with Radley (not sure if Friend out is necessarily a good thing for his scores or not) or not. I could dump him and say updgade Tino, or RTS to Teddy (though I do like RTS this year still) or any other play. Since essentially I could treat Radley as starting with some bank. Dunno. Probably last minute decision on Thurs minutes before lockout I guess

Wait... why did you start with Radley?

@Archer wrote:I have a slightly different dilemma to most, went 928, no teddy no  Cleary. Also started with Radley... So now I'm pondering whether I stick with Radley (not sure if Friend out is necessarily a good thing for his scores or not) or not. I could dump him and say updgade Tino, or RTS to Teddy (though I do like RTS this year still) or any other play. Since essentially I could treat Radley as starting with some bank. Dunno. Probably last minute decision on Thurs minutes before lockout I guess

I think without both mate you might be in trouble when your POD picks don’t fire on same weekend. Especially around these parts where Cleary and Ted teams are vast and still backed by excellent teams. Who off your PODs flew out the blocks and how sustainable was their scoring ?

@Welshy wrote:
Matterson averages 7 more tackles and 30RM a game more than Lucy mate, pretty much what the difference in scoring average is, tough racking up those tackles wider like Lucy defends. Like I said will have to go huge in the try department to get up to and past 60

I see Lucy getting around the 160m that he ran today, should definitely make more TBs to make up for a few less tackles.

@mattnz wrote:
Radley has said he expects to come back on the bench. Only worth keeping if back in his 60+ minute lock role. Doubt that happens to start. Would trade him.

He's going to be a very common trade-in target in a few weeks.