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    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 7 - Trial edition

    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:26 am

    Lrkn wrote:

    are Niu and Brooks considered must haves or sum? Personally considering Niu because if I'm gonna pick a NPR back that will score 25-30 I'll get the guy in 30% of teams to be safe but Brooks... I mean I can't think of anything worse than watching a footy match and hoping Brooks plays well, he could average 75 and I'd still pass

    He’s now the senior head for the Tigers in the halves and will play both sides of the field. I think he will be more busy in attack plus goal kicking is a bonus. I am willing to take the punt. He’s priced at 41 and I can see him getting that average up to about between 49-52 so that’s enough upside for me.
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    Post by Rabbits21 Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:27 am

    RandomSil wrote:

    Matterson isnt affected at all really but everyone likes Crichtons and D. Fifita for a value pick. But honestly I dont think there is much difference between Crichton and Matterson, in fact in many ways they are basically the same, with stats being so incrediblt similar between the two guys.

    Matterson has some positives in he is slightly cheaper, plays on the side with their primary playmaker, less likely to be moved during games, less likely to be rested whole games or partial, plays Round 13, less likely to play origin (Fitler doesnt like him). While Crichton plays for the better side.

    Angus has that DPP though which is so valuable.
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    Post by Rabbits21 Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:35 am

    Been looking at my team thinking there is more value at hooker but not so much safety at WFB. Finally managed a draft in getting Teddy in, I don’t mind the following. Only 9k spare though....

    Turpin
    Angus Watson Lodge
    Fifita Riki
    Cleary Brooks
    Hopoate Averillo
    Teddy Pap Hoy

    Koala J. Brailey Lam Liddle
    Hetherington Stefano Laurie Niu
    RandomSil
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    Post by RandomSil Tue Mar 02, 2021 2:00 am

    Rabbits21 wrote:
    Welshy wrote:

    Tino is some I've see-sawed over most the pre season. I'll probably start with him or Smith

    I’d pick Tino if I thought he could average 54-55 and become a keeper but I don’t think that will happen. He’s priced at 43 and I see him averaging around 49 so it’s a no from me.

    He averaged 54 last season in games he played 50 minutes in it was a small sample size and included a few tries but he has shown he can get across the line.

    Meanwhile Holbrook isnt opposed to giving his lock big minutes. Arrow averaged 66 minutes, while Peachey had 63 minutes, and Fotuaika played 64 minutes in his one game there. In 5 games he scored no tries in and played 50+ minutes his PPM was .75, so in 65 minutes he should have a base score of about 49 points. In all his games over 50 minutes he had a ppm of .88 so realistically his ceiling longterm is around 57 points.

    There are some other funky things like his first game have 0 TBs and a massive 6 Missed Tackles (3x his average), but even his 38 points in Origin Game 1 was in 50 minutes and a PPM of .75. Add to all that this is his first preseason going in as the starting Lock, in a team with Top 8 and even Top 4 aspirations, and has a ton of experience sincd Origin camp.

    TL;DR: Tino's floor in  60 minutes is still 45 points which he is still priced below and the best case scenario of 65  minutes and his higher ppm is 57 points.

    Wide margin but many reasons he improves into a breakout year, and Holbrook has had massive wraps on him after the Warriors trial having him and Brimson as stand outs for the team.
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    Post by Welshy Tue Mar 02, 2021 2:01 am

    Rabbits21 wrote:Been looking at my team thinking there is more value at hooker but not so much safety at WFB. Finally managed a draft in getting Teddy in, I don’t mind the following. Only 9k spare though....

    Turpin
    Angus Watson Lodge
    Fifita Riki
    Cleary Brooks
    Hopoate Averillo
    Teddy Pap Hoy

    Koala J. Brailey Lam Liddle
    Hetherington Stefano Laurie Niu

    don't mind that, Turpin could go really well if he plays most the game consistently
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    Post by Welshy Tue Mar 02, 2021 2:06 am

    RandomSil wrote:

    He averaged 54 last season in games he played 50 minutes in it was a small sample size and included a few tries but he has shown he can get across the line.

    Meanwhile Holbrook isnt opposed to giving his lock big minutes. Arrow averaged 66 minutes, while Peachey had 63 minutes, and Fotuaika played 64 minutes in his one game there. In 5 games he scored no tries in and played 50+ minutes his PPM was .75, so in 65 minutes he should have a base score of about 49 points. In all his games over 50 minutes he had a ppm of .88 so realistically his ceiling longterm is around 57 points.

    There are some other funky things like his first game have 0 TBs and a massive 6 Missed Tackles (3x his average), but even his 38 points in Origin Game 1 was in 50 minutes and a PPM of .75. Add to all that this is his first preseason going in as the starting Lock, in a team with Top 8 and even Top 4 aspirations, and has a ton of experience sincd Origin camp.

    TL;DR: Tino's floor in  60 minutes is still 45 points which he is still priced below and the best case scenario of 65  minutes and his higher ppm is 57 points.

    Wide margin but many reasons he improves into a breakout year, and Holbrook has had massive wraps on him after the Warriors trial having him and Brimson as stand outs for the team.

    talked me into Tino there, team looking too mid range but I like the look of it minus I would have to have Crichton as captain
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    Post by RandomSil Tue Mar 02, 2021 2:11 am

    Welshy wrote:

    talked me into Tino there, team looking too mid range but I like the look of it minus I would have to have Crichton as captain

    I take no blame if it doesnt work out, as there is every possibility he doesnt score a single try and stays at his bare minimum but as a midranger there is no risk compared to someone like Lodge who could be benched in 3 weeks.
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    Post by Welshy Tue Mar 02, 2021 2:20 am

    RandomSil wrote:

    I take no blame if it doesnt work out, as there is every possibility he doesnt score a single try and stays at his bare minimum but as a midranger there is no risk compared to someone like Lodge who could be benched in 3 weeks.

    I would never blame a single person for any decision in fantasy, I've always put any blame on myself
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    Post by RandomSil Tue Mar 02, 2021 2:22 am

    Awesome give me another player to talk you into or talk you out of.
    Welshy
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    Post by Welshy Tue Mar 02, 2021 2:23 am

    RandomSil wrote:Awesome give me another player to talk you into or talk you out of.

    Papy
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Tue Mar 02, 2021 2:35 am

    RandomSil wrote:

    He averaged 54 last season in games he played 50 minutes in it was a small sample size and included a few tries but he has shown he can get across the line.

    Meanwhile Holbrook isnt opposed to giving his lock big minutes. Arrow averaged 66 minutes, while Peachey had 63 minutes, and Fotuaika played 64 minutes in his one game there. In 5 games he scored no tries in and played 50+ minutes his PPM was .75, so in 65 minutes he should have a base score of about 49 points. In all his games over 50 minutes he had a ppm of .88 so realistically his ceiling longterm is around 57 points.

    There are some other funky things like his first game have 0 TBs and a massive 6 Missed Tackles (3x his average), but even his 38 points in Origin Game 1 was in 50 minutes and a PPM of .75. Add to all that this is his first preseason going in as the starting Lock, in a team with Top 8 and even Top 4 aspirations, and has a ton of experience sincd Origin camp.

    TL;DR: Tino's floor in  60 minutes is still 45 points which he is still priced below and the best case scenario of 65  minutes and his higher ppm is 57 points.

    Wide margin but many reasons he improves into a breakout year, and Holbrook has had massive wraps on him after the Warriors trial having him and Brimson as stand outs for the team.

    If Turpin looks like getting 80mins and with Brooks goal kicking I see more upside in them than Tino. At this stage I’m leaving Tino out. You haven’t won me over lol
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    Post by RandomSil Tue Mar 02, 2021 2:43 am

    Welshy wrote:
    RandomSil wrote:Awesome give me another player to talk you into or talk you out of.

    Papy

    Aww man that is easy.

    Papenhyuzen has already shown why he is a Top Tier fullback but never broke into that Tedesco/Ponga elite tier.

    Since 2017 to 2020 Smith averaged 4 Goals per game. Papenhyuzen has essentiallt inherited 8 points a game without doing anything. Smith also averaged 120 km last year and yes while a lot of this should go to the halves as B. Smith and Grant dont really kick. He may get the odd few kicks a game he will rack up even a few more points across the season.

    He averaged 49 points last season and with a somewhat worse backline, and no Smith more play will run through him and also require more individual brilliance on his part. So while there are some negatives, there is a positive in his output needing to be increased should average it out.

    All that combined with being 8 points underpriced just from goal kicking means you have a fullback who could be pressing that 60 point average. Name 1 fullback that does that while under 800k.. hell under 700k.

    He is $200k cheaper than the best player in his position, and who he realistically should match in scoring if not only down by 1 or 2 points. While not being a walk up for Origin either.
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    Post by RandomSil Tue Mar 02, 2021 2:46 am

    Welshy wrote:
    Papy

    Unless you meant the Big Papi, in which case it is Dylan Napa why the hell isnt he already in your team to begin with.
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    Post by RandomSil Tue Mar 02, 2021 3:10 am

    Well Turpin is a decent shout, but what makes you think the Broncos wont run another HOK on the bench. After all the only recency for Walters coaching is the Origin team in which Hunt/Morgan have been featured prominently as Interchange stars. That and the fact Croft could easily be the super sub bench guy this season.

    What makes everyone so sure Brooks becomes the guy, and Douehi doesnt step up finally and take control. I mean in 2019 Brooks averaged more kick meters beside Benji than he ever did between 2014 - 2017 without Benji. While Douehi even at FB averaged 140km and in a small sample size of 5 games had 219km average which is higher than Benjis in 2018 and 2019 amounts. If anything Douehi has room to improve massively in the kick meter department .

    Brooks 2020 average is down about 10 points on his 2019 avg, and the three main reasons are Brooks kicked more, he ran more meters and had 16 try assists. Compare the try assists to last year where Benji had 17 and Brooks had 3.. hell Douehi at FB had 7. So even if Brooks and Douehi split Benjis try assists 10 to 7 in Brooks' favour, he still has less than 2019.

    Then the run meters in 2019 Brooks averaged 118 meters gained. In his 6 other seasons he never averaged 100 meters gained per game. Hell last year was as close as he got with 88 run meter per game average.

    Hell 2019 he averaged the most tackles per game he has ever had as well. This guy played at his absolute best in 2019 and everyone believes he can pull it back this year after a return to form in 2020.

    Before people say it is because he is going to step up..  when?

    Farah calling for Brooks to step up in 2020
    https://www.nrl.com/news/2020/06/16/why-the-time-is-now-for-luke-brooks/

    Maguire saying Brooks is in his prime in 2019 (This one may have been correct.)
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theage.com.au/sport/nrl/quiet-achiever-brooks-entering-his-nrl-prime-maguire-20190514-p51n51.html

    Benji saying Brooks stepped up in 2018 (posted at the end of season where Brooks averaged less than he is priced at.)
    https://www.google.com/amp/www.racingandsports.com/amp/news/sports/rugby-league/2018-10-23/benji-sees-brooks-step-up-at-tigers/463965

    Brooks to carry the Tigers to new heights at the start of 2018
    https://www.weststigers.com.au/news/2018/05/29/luke-brooks-running-to-new-heights-in-2018/

    "I love this Club. I really want to step up and take control of this team."— Luke Brooks 2017
    https://mobile.twitter.com/weststigers/status/854255707163549696

    The only possible saving grace that you would hope gets Brook back to scoring close to 50 is if he ends up goal kicking and keeping it. Even that isnt a sure thing as Douehi was preferred at the end of last season. As per the Tigers forum, Brooks has also not done it often due to wanting to protect his legs and niggles here and there. To top it off in the last trial Brooks missed one of his kicks while Douehi made all of his and slot a clean kick from the sideline. Even the biggest upside to Brooks this year could be taken away by Douehi. If Douehi wasn't out for Round 1 there would be an argument he has greater upside than Brooks.

    (All this isnt to say not to select them, just playing devils advocate with reasons why not to trust Brooks and I kind of went down the rabbit hole if you will. Hell I hope Brooks bounces back and averages 50s as he is in my draft team. This is definitely not a hill I want to die on.)

    Edit: With all my editing of this post and researching pure crap.. i spent an hour and a half almost writing about Brooks. If Milch, MTB or MS come and poke holes in this fucking speil I will be upset.
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    Post by rhinoceroo Tue Mar 02, 2021 4:42 am

    Random, please stop talking up players who are in my team already and talking down players I was never going to pick.
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    Post by Moanaman Tue Mar 02, 2021 4:51 am

    @RandomSil Lets have your thoughts on Api Koroisau
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    Post by zim Tue Mar 02, 2021 5:03 am

    Tino has moved to top of the ownership percentages after the trials. Top 10 is

    Tino 35%
    Watson 33
    Cleary 33
    Riki 32
    Pap 30
    Niu 30
    Liddle 29
    Fifita 29
    Averillo 27
    Teddy and Munster 25
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    Post by RandomSil Tue Mar 02, 2021 5:35 am

    @Moanaman

    I dont think there is much to say about Koroisau as his situation doesnt really change at all. No significant changes to the Panthers team. I mean the biggest change is them losing Mansour so they lose some of those hard yards he makes down his own end a little with hitups and returning the ball. Which is such a minute change that it doesn't have much of an effect.

    The only other factor is the ball in play time, with the new rule changes and again this is a minor roll on effect. From the Panthers vs Eels trial one half added 5 minutes more than the average NRL half last year of ball in play time. While this is a lot for argument sake, lets say the new rule change adds only an extra 5 minutes of ball in play time throughout 80 minutes. (Half what added in the trial)

    That means the old average of 54 minutes of ball in play last year bumps up to the new average would be 59 minutes. Giving Koroisau a player who gets the bulk of his points through consistent means in tackling an extra 5 minutes of tackling.

    Koroisau averaged 50 tackles a game which is almost a tackle a minute, in the extra five minutes Koroisau should see a slight bump in his tackle count to 54 tackle average.

    Koroisau also made the third most runs from dummy half last year with 103, and will now be up against even more tired defenders. With only minimal attacking stats last year 4 Tries, 4 TAs, 5 LB, 4 LBA, and an average of 2 TBs per game. There is every reason he can increase his attacking productivity through the middle with more tired defenders.

    So in summary, there isnt any reason Koroisau should regress, but there is a slight uptick in base stats that could see him get 4 or 5 points extra a game. While there is the potential for his attacking stats to grow. (Lets just hope he stays an 80 minute player.)
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    Post by L-Jimmy Tue Mar 02, 2021 6:25 am

    Fox sports has a few interesting starters listed that would mess with my team. Just goes to show how fragile everything is on TLT.

    Alvaro, LAM, Leinu, Dunn, Turpin, Goosie...... all could rock into the team.

    Suspect this means i’m not cow/gun enough
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    Post by Camo123 Tue Mar 02, 2021 6:28 am

    RandomSil wrote:
    brooks:

    Tell us how you really feel about Brooks Razz

    He is already underpriced from a few interchange appearances but I agree he needs GK to be worthwhile for me

    He does have a weird trend where he averages way more at halfback than at 5/8 which is maybe linked to taking control of team

      Current date/time is Fri Mar 29, 2024 12:15 am