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    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 4 - Praying that nobody gets hurt

    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:44 am

    multiple.scoregasms wrote:

    I currently have all four with Watson MID and Liddle/Lam toss up for 17/18

    From the sounds of things our teams are very similar

    Sounds like it. Currently have Lam ahead of Liddle as per my previous post.
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:08 am

    mattnz wrote:
    It is all comparative. In his position he is far from the best. Both Watson and Liddle are well ahead of him for likely points differential, should score at least as well for a much lower price point.

    Lots of other players also have at least a 14 point differential as well. Assuming LAM averages 44 as a starting prop, which his scoring history indicates is realistic, he is getting the same scoring for $50k less and has far better positional coverage, covering 3 slots in your team. If your team has 4 hookers including Brailey and you don't have LAM and he is starting in round 1, and you only have 1 MID on your bench, it is really foolish.

    In terms of team balance and slot coverage, at a minimum you need to ensure that you have 5 MID and 5 WFB. HOK should probably be 2, possibly 3 at most. The rest of the positions, each should have probably 4 in your team.

    With cover of 2, 5, 4, 4, 4, 5 = 24 minimum required positions covered. If you have 3 DPPs you just reach those minimal positional requirements across your 21. 4 hookers is a luxury in a team. If Brailey is your 4th best hooker option, and you can see another under-represented position with a player that can also get you 14 points differential, Brailey is likely surplus to requirements in your team.

    I plan to run with Watson, Liddle and at least 1 underpriced keeper at hooker, so Brailey is definitely not needed in my team. Instead by adding LAM I reach 5 MIDs in my team for balance and coverage, without losing anything, and I save $50k at the same time, that can be used to gain points elsewhere.

    Liddle is a bigger risk than Brailey as Liddle is extremely injury prone.
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:22 am

    Mulvy wrote:

    Sounds like it.  Currently have Lam ahead of Liddle as per my previous post.

    Who are your current starting halves?
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:38 am

    Rabbits21 wrote:

    Who are your current starting halves?

    Cleary and Munster at this stage.
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:51 am

    mrbrownstone wrote:Just catching up on the Lolo & McInness news after being out of the loop for a bit. Definitely makes MID tricky to start with. No McInness/Haas, Lolo, Carrigan all on less minutes, Crichton better served at EDG, questions over Tohu's role with lots of middle signings at the Warriors. There go all your 60+ avgs from last year to start with.

    Do we still think 60+ will be keeper level for MID. I imagine Haas still averages mid 60s, but will anyone else? Not sure Lolo can in 55 mins. Is worth starting with a Jurbo/Klemmer who will hit reliable 55s in that case? I'm not sold on SST's upside, and everyone else is pretty much priced as is.

    Brown averaged 58 in the back half of last year, so some value there potentially. Does he keep up those minutes/avoid suspension?
    I think keeper will still be 60+ including most of those guys because questions about their role or whether they’re just plainly unavailable will be answered by the backend of the year 

    If someone like Haas/Lolo drops cash they’ll be a prime pick up shortly after, but with uncertainty/unavailability in R1 it’s different
    Holy Moly
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    Post by Holy Moly Sun Feb 14, 2021 2:01 am

    mrbrownstone wrote:Just catching up on the Lolo & McInness news after being out of the loop for a bit. Definitely makes MID tricky to start with. No McInness/Haas, Lolo, Carrigan all on less minutes, Crichton better served at EDG, questions over Tohu's role with lots of middle signings at the Warriors. There go all your 60+ avgs from last year to start with.

    Do we still think 60+ will be keeper level for MID. I imagine Haas still averages mid 60s, but will anyone else? Not sure Lolo can in 55 mins. Is worth starting with a Jurbo/Klemmer who will hit reliable 55s in that case? I'm not sold on SST's upside, and everyone else is pretty much priced as is.

    Brown averaged 58 in the back half of last year, so some value there potentially. Does he keep up those minutes/avoid suspension?


    So, do you think Crichton's average will go down?
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Sun Feb 14, 2021 2:10 am

    Holy Moly wrote:


    So, do you think Crichton's average will go down?
    The guys I am most scared about not having at the start of the season are Crichton and Fifita. I think as the season goes on though, as guys like Radley and Verrils get fully up to speed, he may play less in the middle and stay on his edge. Still a guy that can easily score a double though.
    mrbrownstone
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    Post by mrbrownstone Sun Feb 14, 2021 2:18 am

    Any thoughts on this? Had a re-jig after the Lolo/Averillo news

    Cook
    Tino LAM Watson
    DiFi Davey/Riki
    Cleary Munster
    Bird/Hopo Roberts
    Teddy Turbo Laurie

    Liddle Brailey Lam CHT

    Alvaro* Niu Simonsson** Blore**

    *Placeholder for whichever cheap MID ends up being viable - Leniu/Hetherington/Stimson if starting prop & DPP
    **Placeholders for whichever 246k players end up being viable

    Too half heavy?

    Just feels a gun short now. Cook, Teddy, Cleary, and then hope that DiFi, Tino, Munster, Turbo become keepers, and Bird/Hopo put up close enough to gun scores to keep them for a good chunk of the season.

    I'm not super sold on Tino, but not sure where else to go in MID now.
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Sun Feb 14, 2021 2:24 am

    Crichton has historically been a 60 odd scorer as a starting second row with high floor (40 odd) and the ability to go over 100. Can't fault anyone that starts with him as a potential captaincy option
    Honey Badger
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    Post by Honey Badger Sun Feb 14, 2021 2:29 am

    mrbrownstone wrote:Any thoughts on this? Had a re-jig after the Lolo/Averillo news

    Cook
    Tino LAM Watson
    DiFi Davey/Riki
    Cleary Munster
    Bird/Hopo Roberts
    Teddy Turbo Laurie

    Liddle Brailey Lam CHT

    Alvaro* Niu Simonsson** Blore**

    *Placeholder for whichever cheap MID ends up being viable - Leniu/Hetherington/Stimson if starting prop & DPP
    **Placeholders for whichever 246k players end up being viable

    Too half heavy?

    Just feels a gun short now. Cook, Teddy, Cleary, and then hope that DiFi, Tino, Munster, Turbo become keepers, and Bird/Hopo put up close enough to gun scores to keep them for a good chunk of the season.

    I'm not super sold on Tino, but not sure where else to go in MID now.

    Fifita and Munster both average over 50 so id class them as guns to start the season. So if you add them with Cook, Cleary and Teddy then you've got a pretty good team
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Sun Feb 14, 2021 2:45 am

    Mulvy wrote:

    Cleary and Munster at this stage.

    Wow and Lam, where are you sacrificing elsewhere?
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    Post by The Bludger Sun Feb 14, 2021 2:47 am

    mrbrownstone wrote:Any thoughts on this? Had a re-jig after the Lolo/Averillo news

    Cook
    Tino LAM Watson
    DiFi Davey/Riki
    Cleary Munster
    Bird/Hopo Roberts
    Teddy Turbo Laurie

    Liddle Brailey Lam CHT

    Alvaro* Niu Simonsson** Blore**

    *Placeholder for whichever cheap MID ends up being viable - Leniu/Hetherington/Stimson if starting prop & DPP
    **Placeholders for whichever 246k players end up being viable

    Too half heavy?

    Just feels a gun short now. Cook, Teddy, Cleary, and then hope that DiFi, Tino, Munster, Turbo become keepers, and Bird/Hopo put up close enough to gun scores to keep them for a good chunk of the season.

    I'm not super sold on Tino, but not sure where else to go in MID now.

    Your team is suspiciously Bludgers-like.
    I'm running a current draft of:
    Grant / JBrailey / Liddle
    Watson / Tino / LAM / BMM
    DFifi / Davey / Blore / Riki
    Cleary (c) / Brooks / Lam
    Bird / Roberts / Hopo
    Teddy / Turbo / Laurie / Simonsson
    $50k ITB

    Like you, I'm still not sold on Tino, but have picked him as a defensive move based on popularity.
    Hopo came in for Averillo, while I had looked at Moylan as cover.
    I notice there's not too much love for Brooks on here, it's just a gut call, but I think he'll Tate his game to the next level now the team is his to run.
    If his Kick metres, assists etc. he could up his average to 55, 15+ will do me.

    Obviously BMM, Blore etc. are all TL dependent.
    Adrianoooo
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    Post by Adrianoooo Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:14 am

    Who is goal kicking for Warriors?
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:18 am

    STAR RECRUIT’S INJURY SETBACK

    South Sydney’s star recruit Jai Arrow has suffered an injury setback as coach Wayne Bennett declared NSW Origin gun Cameron Murray had won the race for the Rabbitohs’ No. 13 jersey.

    Arrow has missed three weeks of pre-season training at his new club after suffering a hamstring strain.

    The former Gold Coast Titans gun is back in training now, but is out of the running for his favoured position at Redfern.

    After suffering a hamstring injury in Game One of last November’s State of Origin series, Murray is on track to start the 2021 NRL season at lock for South Sydney.

    Canberra Raiders coach Ricky Stuart says Jarrod Croker is ahead of schedule in his recovery from shoulder surgery and is hopeful of having his captain on deck for round one.

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/nrl/supercoach-news/nrl-casualty-ward-2021-every-club-every-injury-every-return-date/news-story/5019ce8ac503ea218b4fad3974e13afa

    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:27 am

    Adrianoooo wrote:Who is goal kicking for Warriors?
    CHT
    Ramitinmyhaaas
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    Post by Ramitinmyhaaas Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:29 am

    Mulvy wrote:

    Cleary and Munster at this stage.

    Going two gun halves, I like it. Full team reveal soon??
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    Post by TheRookie101 Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:34 am

    No love for Jake Trbojevic? Plays 80 minutes at lock and I believe Manly will go better this year.
    Plus his combo with his brother could increase his points. Also he his tackling technique could cause a few loose carries.

    A safe 80 minute option with McInness out for the year and Taumalolo less minutes. Opinions?
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:36 am

    Rabbits21 wrote:

    Wow and Lam, where are you sacrificing elsewhere?

    Yeah got those three plus Brooks atm

    If you’re stronger elsewhere, it’s because you’ve sacrificed too much in the halves Very Happy
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    Post by robelgordo Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:37 am

    TheRookie101 wrote:No love for Jake Trbojevic? Plays 80 minutes at lock and I believe Manly will go better this year.
    Plus his combo with his brother could increase his points. Also he his tackling technique could cause a few loose carries.

    A safe 80 minute option with McInness out for the year and Taumalolo less minutes. Opinions?

    The most boring pick imaginable, and therefore probably sensible.
    L-Jimmy
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    Post by L-Jimmy Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:40 am

    TheRookie101 wrote:No love for Jake Trbojevic? Plays 80 minutes at lock and I believe Manly will go better this year.
    Plus his combo with his brother could increase his points. Also he his tackling technique could cause a few loose carries.

    A safe 80 minute option with McInness out for the year and Taumalolo less minutes. Opinions?

    eh. Maybe a few points underpriced, but plays Origin, isn't cheap, and hasn't shown the type of play style that ups the scoring under the new rules.

    And as his points come from tackles I'm not sure Manly doing better (which I also don't buy) will help him much.

    Not a pick that would ruin a season, sure. But I would much rather Murray / Twal / Tauk / Saifiti in the same price bracker.

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