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    Mattnz's Subgun PODs

    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Feb 11, 2021 8:23 pm


    You’re not worried about McCulloughs injury. His hammy would have been worse than Tommy Turbo
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Thu Feb 11, 2021 8:49 pm

    @Milchcow wrote:
    You’re not worried about McCulloughs injury. His hammy would have been worse than Tommy Turbo
    Not sure. Will see what role he has in trials and team composition.

    Dragons are clearly confident he has fully recovered when conducting their due diligence before releasing mcinnes
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    Post by mattnz Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:20 pm

    My team is gradually evolving as more information comes to hand.

    The latest version is essentially Subguns and Cows plus Cleary (and Staines who has never left my team).

    Looking like Watson has firmed up as starting big minute lock, so don't really need to spend so much on the MIDs of all of Twal, Elliott and Brown. I have the most confidence of increased minutes for Twal and Elliott, so can drop Brown, which gives me quite a bit of cash to play with. Both Twal and Elliott had a few weeks last year where they actually had the role I am looking for from them this season, before each of them were injured.

    Overall it gives the team better balance, which should assist through the season.

    Looking at running both McCullough who now looks sure to play 80 and will see how teams line up for Cowboys bench, but would love to give Robson another crack, even after the disappointment of what happened to him last season.

    The list of Sub-guns with gun keeper potential is getting longer (deliberately), viewing all of the following as being possible candidates this season:

    Elliott, Twal, Watson, McCullough, Robson, Lam, Edwards, Fogarty, Kelly, Bird, so 10 players in total that could make the leap of being around 10 points underpriced, with the potential to be one of the best keepers in their position at the end of the season.

    Trying to structure the team so that even though some of them won't make the grade, it is an easy straight swap out to the guy that is performing at that level instead.

    Current team:
    McCullough
    Twal Elliott Watson
    Riki Davey
    Cleary (c) Fogarty
    Bird Kelly
    Edwards Staines Laurie

    Robson Lam Liddle LAM
    Blore Niu Hola $228k

    $152k remaining
    Bethany_B
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    Post by Bethany_B Sat Feb 13, 2021 1:16 am

    @mattnz wrote:My team is gradually evolving as more information comes to hand.

    The latest version is essentially Subguns and Cows plus Cleary (and Staines who has never left my team).

    Looking like Watson has firmed up as starting big minute lock, so don't really need to spend so much on the MIDs of all of Twal, Elliott and Brown. I have the most confidence of increased minutes for Twal and Elliott, so can drop Brown, which gives me quite a bit of cash to play with. Both Twal and Elliott had a few weeks last year where they actually had the role I am looking for from them this season, before each of them were injured.

    Overall it gives the team better balance, which should assist through the season.

    Looking at running both McCullough who now looks sure to play 80 and will see how teams line up for Cowboys bench, but would love to give Robson another crack, even after the disappointment of what happened to him last season.

    The list of Sub-guns with gun keeper potential is getting longer (deliberately), viewing all of the following as being possible candidates this season:

    Elliott, Twal, Watson, McCullough, Robson, Lam, Edwards, Fogarty, Kelly, Bird, so 10 players in total that could make the leap of being around 10 points underpriced, with the potential to be one of the best keepers in their position at the end of the season.

    Trying to structure the team so that even though some of them won't make the grade, it is an easy straight swap out to the guy that is performing at that level instead.

    Current team:
    McCullough
    Twal Elliott Watson
    Riki Davey
    Cleary (c) Fogarty
    Bird Kelly
    Edwards Staines Laurie

    Robson Lam Liddle LAM
    Blore Niu Hola $228k

    $152k remaining

    I like this, though I'm not so sure about Robson and Elliott. If they have a favourable TLT (Elliott starting at lock, no bench hooker for the Cowboys), then they're both great, but I've heard that Jackson might move to 13 and push Elliott to an edge which would ruin him.

    My current lot of guns and sub guns are Macca, Crichton, Twal, Cleary, Papy and Edwards - I wasn't initially sold on Edwards but I just had a look at his scores from last year and the base is very nice. As for Papy, that's contingent on him getting the goalkicking.
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    Post by mattnz Sat Feb 13, 2021 9:02 am

    Also I have dropped Brailey, which probably looks silly to most. Brailey looks to be in that range of being a more expensive cow that won't get close to being a keeper in his position.

    If LAM is named at starting prop, he should score similar and is $50k cheaper. For coverage my team needs a prop more than a hooker (still have 4 hookers in the team covering 1 position).

    Also LAM is a 2% POD vs Brailey at 19% ownership, who seems to be in almost everyone's team on the forum.
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    Post by mattnz Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:24 pm

    Have made the first real changes to my team for a while, now we are starting to see some likely actual team lists.

    An under the radar POD with great potential is NAS. Named as starting prop for the trial. In games over 40 minutes last season, he averaged 58! Priced at 44. No chance of Origin. Absolute beast, just coming into his prime at 24. Just 2% ownership.

    Also liking the look of Tapine, his breakout games during last year's finals aren't included in his pricing. As starting lock he didn't play less than 47 minutes last season. In the form we saw end of last year he has gun potential. Averaged 62 as starting lock in 52 minutes last year! Another beast hitting his best form in his mid 20s and also no chance of Origin. 2% ownership POD.

    David Fifita's average performance scoring 65 in less than 80 minutes make him a must have as an underpriced gun. One of just 2 Origin players in my team.

    Current team:
    McCullough
    Tapine Twal Watson
    Fifita Riki
    Cleary (c) Fogarty
    Momo Feagai
    Edwards Staines Oates

    NAS Davey Lam Liddle
    Utoikamanu $246k $228k $228k

    $15k to spare

    Feel like I have a team that will score well, with lots of upside potential on its day.
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    Post by Camo123 Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:01 pm

    Can't see NAS starting on TLT, his best work was off bench last year

    Welch came back quite late to pre-season along with other Origin players so probably just getting rest in trial, and Finucane missed a big chunk of 2nd half of season and will take big mins (particularly as one of captains)

    Also Bird said he wants to play CTR after trial, not sure if Griffin will replicate that, but if he does Feagai unlikely in 17 (with Lomax as other CTR, Pereira/Ramsey/Ravalawa as wings)
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    Post by mattnz Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:11 pm

    @Camo123 wrote:Can't see NAS starting on TLT, his best work was off bench last year

    Welch came back quite late to pre-season along with other Origin players so probably just getting rest in trial, and Finucane missed a big chunk of 2nd half of season and will take big mins (particularly as one of  captains)

    Also Bird said he wants to play CTR after trial, not sure if Griffin will replicate that, but if he does Feagai unlikely in 17 (with Lomax as other CTR, Pereira/Ramsey/Ravalawa as wings)

    Appreciate the input, will see how things work out come TLT. If no bench hooker, Turpin would come into my team.
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    Post by ytsb Tue Feb 23, 2021 11:37 pm

    Surprised you're not on Tauk mate.
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    Post by RandomSil Wed Feb 24, 2021 1:24 am

    I like the team though I am not a fan of Tapine and not sure Twal can really make the jump higher than what he is especially with a revitalised forward pack with actual NRL experience
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    Post by mattnz Wed Feb 24, 2021 2:54 am

    @RandomSil wrote:I like the team though I am not a fan of Tapine and not sure Twal can really make the jump higher than what he is especially with a revitalised forward pack with actual NRL experience
    They have lost 2 big minute forwards in Aloiai and Eisenhuth and replaced them with guys that play significantly less minutes in Tamou and Ofa.

    Have also gone from an 80 minute hooker to one that has never played 80 minutes. Interesting to note that in the 2 games last season where Tigers had a hooker on the bench, Twal played 76 minutes and 80 minutes. Also averaged 14 more minutes without Eisenhuth in the team.

    With the exception of Mikaele, they are all either low minute middles like Musgrove or new unproven guys like Utoikamanu that have also played limited minutes.

    I can't think of any team in the comp that runs 2 hookers, as Tigers are sure to do, without having at least 1 huge minute middle. Manly, warriors, broncos, all compensated for weakness at hooker with huge minute middles to compensate with limited interchanges available.

    Twal has proven himself as being able to play huge minutes with a high workrate and really low missed tackles. I recall last season he went over 200 tackles without missing one, while playing huge minutes. No one else has come close to this.
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    Post by Milchcow Wed Feb 24, 2021 8:04 am


    You can make the same argument for Ofahengaue's minutes as you do for Twal

    In games where Haas didn't play, Ofahengaue's minutes go up.
    Haas is a bigger minute prop than Twal is. and Ofa won't be playing any games with Haas this year, you could argue that his minutes are going to rise.

    It would be great for fantasy if Twal always played big minutes, but not sure I share your confidence it will happen.
    I don't think he's likely to drop in value, so not a bad fantasy pick, but I think its ambitious expecting players to replicate their best 3-4 weeks of form over an entire season.
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    Post by my tv broke Wed Feb 24, 2021 8:10 am

    I can see a scenario where Twal plays 65 ish mins this year, he is tempting, but at the moment I think that is based on hope more than anything. There's been no real indication yet that that would happen. The Tigers pack is stronger this year. Tamou has just been named captain and Ofa is a big minute forward *IF* he is playing well, and I guess the Tigers see something in him, so I don't see why he won't get decent mins if he's had a good pre-season. Ofa was an 80 minute prop all the way up to NRL, he has the motor.. he's just not been that good.

    I'd rather Yeo who has the ability to score points in more ways than one. We've seen before that Twal gets taken off the field when the Tigers need to score points. You'd probably find that Twal plays 80 ish mins one week and 50 mins the next week.
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    Post by mattnz Wed Feb 24, 2021 9:02 am

    @my tv broke wrote:I can see a scenario where Twal plays 65 ish mins this year, he is tempting, but at the moment I think that is based on hope more than anything. There's been no real indication yet that that would happen. The Tigers pack is stronger this year. Tamou has just been named captain and Ofa is a big minute forward *IF* he is playing well, and I guess the Tigers see something in him, so I don't see why he won't get decent mins if he's had a good pre-season. Ofa was an 80 minute prop all the way up to NRL, he has the motor.. he's just not been that good.

    I'd rather Yeo who has the ability to score points in more ways than one. We've seen before that Twal gets taken off the field when the Tigers need to score points. You'd probably find that Twal plays 80 ish mins one week and 50 mins the next week.
    Yeo is fully priced, no value there and no upside, also plays Origin.
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    Post by Welshy Wed Feb 24, 2021 9:10 am

    @mattnz wrote:
    Yeo is fully priced, no value there and no upside, also plays Origin.
    He’s actually priced 4 points under value when starting lock and playing over 60 minutes Wink
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    Post by mattnz Wed Feb 24, 2021 9:16 am

    @Welshy wrote:
    He’s actually priced 4 points under value when starting lock and playing over 60 minutes Wink
    He may also suffer from the Eisenhuth effect that caused Twal to lose 14 minutes per game at the end of last season, when coming back from injury.
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    Post by Welshy Wed Feb 24, 2021 9:25 am

    @mattnz wrote:
    He may also suffer from the Eisenhuth effect that caused Twal to lose 14 minutes per game at the end of last season, when coming back from injury.
    He might mate. Or Twal was only ever playing the big minutes because Eisenhuth was injured at the start of the season?
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    Post by mattnz Wed Feb 24, 2021 9:29 am

    @Welshy wrote:
    He might mate. Or Twal was only ever playing the big minutes because Eisenhuth was injured at the start of the season?
    Yes, the same 58 minutes per game from Eisenhuth that will never steal minutes from him again Smile Back to the good times Smile
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    Post by Welshy Wed Feb 24, 2021 9:36 am

    @mattnz wrote:
    Yes, the same 58 minutes per game from Eisenhuth that will never steal minutes from him again Smile Back to the good times Smile
    Just Offa. And does it not say something that the coach split the minutes when he had two players in same position?
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    Post by mattnz Wed Feb 24, 2021 11:20 am

    @Welshy wrote:
    Just Offa. And does it not say something that the coach split the minutes when he had two players in same position?
    Ofa will be prop, Twal lock vs last season when they had Aloiai and Mikaele as props at the end of last year. Mikaele to come off the bench, probably splits the 80 minutes with Tamou.

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