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    Mattnz's Subgun PODs

    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Tue Feb 09, 2021 5:05 pm

    After playing around with my team a lot, I am starting to reach a version that I am happy with.

    True to form, the aim of the team is to select as many "subguns" as possible that have a chance of reaching gun keeper status in their position. If a decent proportion of the team reach gun status during the season, it should be a fun season! It also currently has no Origin players and lots of round 13 players.

    Also trying to get the balance right for positional coverage, and really targeting not having lots of players that are likely to get injured or have concerns about their job security.

    Lots of PODs that don't seem to be on the radar for most. Strongest position by far is MIDs where many of my gun hopefuls are sitting. Means I have a really strong 14-17.

    Brailey
    Lolo (c) Twal Brown
    Young Davey
    Brooks Lam
    Walker Kelly
    Edwards Staines Laurie

    Watson Elliott Riki A.Fifita
    Blore Liddle Hoy Niu

    $95k remaining


    Last edited by mattnz on Tue Feb 09, 2021 5:07 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post by mattnz Tue Feb 09, 2021 5:05 pm

    The Subgun PODs:

    Twal - 2% ownership - Loved having him at the start of last season, was pumping out 60s every week, with huge minutes until he unfortunately got injured. This season there is less competition for his minutes. While Tamou has arrived, he is basically a straight swap for Aloiai. The big difference is that Eisenhuth is no longer there, who played big minutes at lock. Should be in for his big jump to genuine big minute gun keeper middle.

    Elliott - 1% - Was in line for his 3rd 80 minute performance in a row at lock when he dislocated his shoulder. Huge minutes Tolman is no longer there, and at the start of the season neither is Thompson. Expecting huge minutes from him based on their weak starting props and weaker bench. Time for him to stand up as leader of the pack.

    Fifita - 2% - Biggest risk with huge upside potential if it pays off, while others stand off watching it happen. Averaged 33 mins last season, never averaged less than 51 any year before that. Has lost weight, is fit and apparently injury free. Doing a preseason for the first time in years. If fit, is a Gun with a capital G.

    Young - 1% - CHN should get a suspension to start the season due to pending court charges for drink driving. Young finished last season playing like a beast! If he starts on the right edge, he will make it his own. Looking for him to be close to Fifita for scoring for over $100k less.

    N Brown - 1% - Another on the cusp of getting huge minutes every week. After Brown, RCG and Paulo, there are serious gaps in their MIDs depth. Could easily carve out a 70-80 minute high impact role if he can stay injury free.

    Davey - 7% - My pick of the value edges. Looked great last season, should be good for a 50+ average, with 2 scores over 50 in his only starts on the edge.
    I don't need dual EDG/MIDs as I have 6 MIDs in the team already.

    Brooks - 3% - Surprisingly low ownership. Nothing really to change between now and TLT, so probably remains a great POD. Should pick up lots of kicking meters without Benji next to him and genuinely own the team for the season. Time to step up!

    D Walker - 5% - Will get a center spot for the season. Really low price at 24 points, after 2 injury impacted scores of 1 and -1 and a less than 10 game discount on top of that. Love that he is dual. Meets my centers criteria of having job security and significant upside potential.

    Kelly -  3% - Had 3 scores over 60 at center last season, including one without a try. Looks to have the ability to score huge if he gets 2 or 3 tries in a game, which he looks very capable of. Should benefit from the Titans being really competitive this season. Under-priced due to playing on the wing 3 times, off the interchange once, and getting a -1 in an injured game. Could easily be a cut priced keeper this season at center.

    Staines - 9% - Doesn't need to be averaging 3 tries per game, but doesn't hurt that he has shown the ability to do so. Have picked him and Edwards as a combination. In the one game that they played together last season, Staines set up the assist for Edwards' try and Edwards assisted for 3 of Staines' 4 tries. Both scored over 80 points. That is the kind of combination that legends are made of, like Leipana a few years ago.

    Edwards - 1% - Finally had the breakout season we have been waiting on. Owned him last season and was super-consistent. 80 minute low of 39 with an average of 50! His best game of the season of course was when he and Staines were creating havoc together. They are going to have some fun together! Shows all the hallmarks of being able to step up to uber-gun fullback this season but will play round 13, which none of the other gun fullbacks will do.

    Those many others are picking:


    Lolo - Needed a captain and seems most undervalued of the captaincy options. No Origin either. Terrible season for Cowboys last year. Have a new coach that did wonders reinvigorating the Warriors, starting with playing their lock for huge minutes (mostly 80 mins). Will get the best from the teams best player.
    Brailey - Looks decent and safe, priced at 31, likely scores mid 40s
    Watson - If playing the big minute lock role that he has said he wants, can be a genuine gun this season
    Lam - Small sample but looks great. Expecting him to outscore Keary this season
    Laurie - starting fullback at $246k
    Riki - With Haas out, looks very likely to get a start on the edge, with TPJ in the middle. Likely his spot to lose if he performs.
    Blore - $246k likely starting edge!
    Liddle - $304k starting hooker
    Niu - cheap, seems to be locked in as center which also makes him dual coverage
    Hoy - the player I am most likely to drop as doesn't have job security, will see who pops up at TLT. At least he is dual and will be fullback in round 13.

    So I have generally avoided the $300-400k range MIDs in favour of a number of them that have gun potential. That and my WFBs are probably the biggest difference from most teams. Without any Origin players and stacking round 13 options, I will start with 14 players expected to play in that round. Gives me lots of flexibility and hopefully save some trades, just add a few key players close to the time as upgrades.
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    Post by Teeth Eater Tue Feb 09, 2021 7:41 pm

    Jeez mate, that's a dangerous squad. The thing I can't believe most out of those two posts is that N.Brown is only at 1% ownership. Wow, that's surprising.

    I think it's an interesting squad - really ballsy choices with a lot that could go wrong, but it'll be interesting to see if you roll out with something like that.

    Biggest question marks for me would be Young at his price and how long he's worth a punt. And also Edwards - could be a bit risky at that price, but I guess he's no bigger risk than Papy, who I'm still considering.

    First glance I thought it was too dangerous, but when I tried to pick it apart I couldn't actually find too much that was outrageous. I guess if I was to say one thing it'd be that you've only got two certified guns in there (Lolo and Brown) and there's a chance every single one of those other guys could flop. You'd be unlucky as all hell, but I'd possibly temped to swap out a couple of them for certified guns?
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    Post by Camo123 Tue Feb 09, 2021 7:55 pm

    I had D Walker for early drafts but my worry is
    (a) Has a court appearance in May (~R8) which could potentially be found guilty for (or face no-fault stand down etc)
    (b) His CTR average (although still underpriced) is buffed a lot by earlier years and his recent scores have a lot of low-30s and high-20s with tries which isn't great

    Also Eisenhuth & Twal didn't actually play a whole lot of games together last season (around 5 at backend) so not sure if Eisenhuth leaving affects Twal. Good pick though

    I wouldn't rule out Papy/Brimson playing R13 either, they're on the fringe of Origin but not guaranteed selection (Ponga will be back for QLD) & conversely Brown is fringe Origin as well which you may think is guaranteed R13

    Also you mention avoiding guys with injuries but hamstrings are usually high reoccurrence rate which Edwards & Fifita have had history of
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    Post by mattnz Tue Feb 09, 2021 7:59 pm

    @Teeth Eater wrote:Jeez mate, that's a dangerous squad. The thing I can't believe most out of those two posts is that N.Brown is only at 1% ownership. Wow, that's surprising.

    I think it's an interesting squad - really ballsy choices with a lot that could go wrong, but it'll be interesting to see if you roll out with something like that.

    Biggest question marks for me would be Young at his price and how long he's worth a punt. And also Edwards - could be a bit risky at that price, but I guess he's no bigger risk than Papy, who I'm still considering.

    First glance I thought it was too dangerous, but when I tried to pick it apart I couldn't actually find too much that was outrageous. I guess if I was to say one thing it'd be that you've only got two certified guns in there (Lolo and Brown) and there's a chance every single one of those other guys could flop. You'd be unlucky as all hell, but I'd possibly temped to swap out a couple of them for certified guns?

    Thanks for the thoughts.

    If my picks generally come off, the team with value potential in every position should outscore a team of already full value guns and cheaper mid-rangers.
    Young was absolutely gunning it at the end of last season. If that guy steps on the field, he will easily outscore his 45 average he is priced at. Should get a clear run to make the spot his own with CHN suspended the first few weeks.

    Hoping to catch the equivalent of Yeo, Harris, Lomax, Carrigan, Koro, Twal & Capewell (both before injury) from last season. If you had all of them at the start of the season you were well set!
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    Post by Bethany_B Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:10 pm

    @mattnz wrote:

    Thanks for the thoughts.

    If my picks generally come off, the team with value potential in every position should outscore a team of already full value guns and cheaper mid-rangers.
    Young was absolutely gunning it at the end of last season. If that guy steps on the field, he will easily outscore his 45 average he is priced at. Should get a clear run to make the spot his own with CHN suspended the first few weeks.

    Hoping to catch the equivalent of Yeo, Harris, Lomax, Carrigan, Koro, Twal & Capewell (both before injury) from last season. If you had all of them at the start of the season you were well set!

    This thread is like crack for me, I love some juicy POD picks!
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    Post by Bethany_B Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:29 pm

    Also if you want a nice left field WFB, I highly recommend Dane Gagai.

    CTR/WFB dual (so you can put him at centre and run a cheap WFB or the other way around), 4.7% owned and is priced at 39 but averaged 45 when playing at centre (compared to 34 at wing). Since they now have Mansour and AJ on the wings, I highly doubt Gagai will be playing wing anytime soon.

    For $517k, I think he's a very handy POD and a nice leg up on the cheap centre teams.
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    Post by mattnz Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:31 pm

    @Bethany_B wrote:Also if you want a nice left field WFB, I highly recommend Dane Gagai.

    CTR/WFB dual (so you can put him at centre and run a cheap WFB or the other way around), 4.7% owned and is priced at 39 but averaged 45 when playing at centre (compared to 34 at wing). Since they now have Mansour and AJ on the wings, I highly doubt Gagai will be playing wing anytime soon.

    For $517k, I think he's a very handy POD and a nice leg up on the cheap centre teams.

    He was in my team earlier today based on your recommendation, but trying to avoid Origin players where possible. Happy with Kelly as an alternative that is a bit cheaper, but could match him for scoring.
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    Post by Bethany_B Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:34 pm

    @mattnz wrote:

    He was in my team earlier today based on your recommendation, but trying to avoid Origin players where possible. Happy with Kelly as an alternative that is a bit cheaper, but could match him for scoring.

    That's fair enough. I personally don't really like bye planning in my initial team. I was on Kelly before, but I like Gagai's dual position and very solid floor. I may still go back to Kelly if I need the 60k for something else though.
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    Post by mattnz Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:36 pm

    @Bethany_B wrote:

    That's fair enough. I personally don't really like bye planning in my initial team. I was on Kelly before, but I like Gagai's dual position and very solid floor. I may still go back to Kelly if I need the 60k for something else though.
    I want approx $100k spare for early trades as well, so right on that mark currently.
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    Post by Bethany_B Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:40 pm

    @mattnz wrote:
    I want approx $100k spare for early trades as well, so right on that mark currently.

    Fair enough. I don't like leaving that much in the bank, but 40-60k is a nice buffer to have. My current team has 12k though (it was not easy fitting in a couple of your pods and still keeping Lolo/Cleary/Angus, though I did give up Grant for Twal since I have plenty of hookers)
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    Post by Rabbits21 Tue Feb 09, 2021 9:44 pm

    @mattnz wrote:After playing around with my team a lot, I am starting to reach a version that I am happy with.

    True to form, the aim of the team is to select as many "subguns" as possible that have a chance of reaching gun keeper status in their position. If a decent proportion of the team reach gun status during the season, it should be a fun season! It also currently has no Origin players and lots of round 13 players.

    Also trying to get the balance right for positional coverage, and really targeting not having lots of players that are likely to get injured or have concerns about their job security.

    Lots of PODs that don't seem to be on the radar for most. Strongest position by far is MIDs where many of my gun hopefuls are sitting. Means I have a really strong 14-17.

    Brailey
    Lolo (c) Twal BrownWe
    Young Davey
    Brooks Lam
    Walker Kelly
    Edwards Staines Laurie

    Watson Elliott Riki A.Fifita
    Blore Liddle Hoy Niu

    $95k remaining
    Wow so many pods. Be careful not to think POD POD POD, you want to pick the squad that will score the best and that will make lots of money. It has a bit off a too mid range feel about it for mine, needs another gun or 2 and another cow or 2.

    I don’t like the Young pick, Canberra don’t give much ball to their second rowers, they use them as decoys. I can not see Young becoming a keeper sorry.

    I like the Nathan Brown pick and your logic there.

    I’m also not keen on the D. Walker pick, I think you’d be better going with Momorovski, Jet or Averillo.

    I can’t see Andrew Fifita playing big enough mins to become a keeper again. I think Morris will continue to keep his minutes smaller with a focus on quality in a 35min stint.

    I don’t mind the Elliot pick and see why you’ve done that.

    I have big wraps on Davey as well just like you do.
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    Post by mattnz Tue Feb 09, 2021 9:52 pm

    @Rabbits21 wrote:
    Wow so many pods. Be careful not to think POD POD POD, you want to pick the squad that will score the best and that will make lots of money. It has a bit off a too mid range feel about it for mine, needs another gun or 2 and another cow or 2.

    I don’t like the Young pick, Canberra don’t give much ball to their second rowers, they use them as decoys. I can not see Young becoming a keeper sorry.

    I like the Nathan Brown pick and your logic there.

    I’m also not keen on the D. Walker pick, I think you’d be better going with Momorovski, Jet or Averillo.

    I can’t see Andrew Fifita playing big enough mins to become a keeper again. I think Morris will continue to keep his minutes smaller with a focus on quality in a 35min stint.

    I don’t mind the Elliot pick and see why you’ve done that.

    I have big wraps on Davey as well just like you do.
    Young should be getting a shot at Bateman's edge. Didn't hurt Bateman's gun credentials at all.
    Neither Momo or Averillo have any certainty of positions for the season, Roberts hasnt been the jet for a few seasons.
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    Post by rhinoceroo Wed Feb 10, 2021 12:28 am

    Some of your pod picks are justifiable, some are borderline, Staines and Fifita are neither.

    You say you have no Origin players but you have Nathan Brown, who is and will be an Origin player.

    All in all it's a batshit squad but may the force be with you.

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    Post by mattnz Wed Feb 10, 2021 6:28 am

    @rhinoceroo wrote:Some of your pod picks are justifiable, some are borderline, Staines and Fifita are neither.

    You say you have no Origin players but you have Nathan Brown, who is and will be an Origin player.

    All in all it's a batshit squad but may the force be with you.

    Brown only came in due to injury to Murray in game 1. At full strength, he misses out.
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    Post by mattnz Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:06 am

    @Camo123 wrote:I had D Walker for early drafts but my worry is
    (a) Has a court appearance in May (~R8) which could potentially be found guilty for (or face no-fault stand down etc)
    (b) His CTR average (although still underpriced) is buffed a lot by earlier years and his recent scores have a lot of low-30s and high-20s with tries which isn't great

    Also Eisenhuth & Twal didn't actually play a whole lot of games together last season (around 5 at backend) so not sure if Eisenhuth leaving affects Twal. Good pick though

    I wouldn't rule out Papy/Brimson playing R13 either, they're on the fringe of Origin but not guaranteed selection (Ponga will be back for QLD) & conversely Brown is fringe Origin as well which you may think is guaranteed R13

    Also you mention avoiding guys with injuries but hamstrings are usually high reoccurrence rate which Edwards & Fifita have had history of
    Thanks, I missed the Walker court appearance.
    Just calculated that Twal without Eisenhuth playing in 6 games averaged 68 minutes (excluding the game he got injured), while in the 5 games where both he and Eisenhuth were playing he averaged 54 minutes.
    After his impact last season, I can't see Brimson being left out of the Queensland team. Even with Ponga at fullback, you are going to find a place for him at center or wing ahead of Coates, Sami and Capewell.
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    Post by rhinoceroo Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:49 am

    @mattnz wrote:
    Brown only came in due to injury to Murray in game 1. At full strength, he misses out.

    Avatar bet that Nathan Brown plays round one Origin if fit (ie. he doesn't play for Parra that week either way)
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    Post by mattnz Wed Feb 10, 2021 9:16 am

    Just checked and Aloiai actually played 7 more minutes per game than Tamou did last season 49 vs 42 minutes. Is actually a downgrade for middle minutes available.
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    Post by mattnz Wed Feb 10, 2021 9:18 am

    @rhinoceroo wrote:

    Avatar bet that Nathan Brown plays round one Origin if fit (ie. he doesn't play for Parra that week either way)
    Ok the bet includes both Jurbo and Murray available for selection.
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    Post by rhinoceroo Wed Feb 10, 2021 9:26 am

    @mattnz wrote:
    Ok the bet includes both Jurbo and Murray available for selection.

    No. It's a simple bet.

    I say Brown will play Origin One, you say he won't.

    If he's in the NSW 17 come game day, I win the bet, if he suits up for Parramatta that week, you win. If he plays neither game (injury or suspension) it's a wash.

    Seeing as there's been some controversy elsewhere, also worth setting down the terms. Avatar change lasts for Origin period from kickoff of Game One to full time of Game Three.

      Current date/time is Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:29 am