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    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 3 - Closer

    my tv broke
    my tv broke
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    Post by my tv broke Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:25 am

    Be nice if Watson is named on the bench for round 1 Twisted Evil
    Pookus McFly
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    Post by Pookus McFly Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:26 am

    @Ramitinmyhaaas wrote:Looks goof for Watson's fantasy output

    https://www.nrl.com/news/2021/02/05/new-rules-to-suit-watsons-dream-of-knights-no.13-jersey/

    From a fantasy point of view I’d rather he started from the bench. He will be heavily owned enough as it is, but starting lock means everyone plays just 16 men per team
    The Pascoe Fiasco
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    Post by The Pascoe Fiasco Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:43 am

    Bad news for Haas fans, it’s being reported that the NRL will fine and suspended Haas for the start of the season. More info next week apparently!
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:47 am

    @mrbrownstone wrote:Speaking of hookers, does anyone like Hodgson?

    Priced at 37, and his long-term average at hooker is 47.8 in 70+ minutes. Averaged 50 in 2019 taking out an injury-affected 16.

    That NRL.com article on the biggest beneficiaries of the new rules had this stat too:

    Josh Hodgson +3.56 ppg (7 turnover tackles, 1 steal in 9 matches)

    So an extra bit of value there.

    I guess the risk is coming back from an ACL. I hadn't considered him much, but don't mind it actually.
    I saw stat that Hodgson career average MT before 6 again was 3.5 and after 6 again was 6.5 which is a fair increase in demerits

    Also turnover average increase is misleading as based on 9 games, only just over 1 average in full season


    Last edited by Camo123 on Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:11 am; edited 1 time in total
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:48 am

    @my tv broke wrote:Hooker tackle counts pre/post rule changes.

    I totalled the tackle counts for all starting hookers across 2019 and 2020 and then worked out the average per 80 mins

    2019 - 46.94
    2020 (excluding rounds 1 and 2) - 49.61


    *interestingly enough missed tackles for hookers were slightly lower in 2020, but basically negligible (2.74 in 2019, to 2.48 in 2020)
    Brailey basically another 3 points underpriced then because he hasn’t played under 6 again
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:59 am

    @The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:Bad news for Haas fans, it’s being reported that the NRL will fine and suspended Haas for the start of the season. More info next week apparently!

    Confusing news for people interested in Lodge. Will have to guess what difference will be between Haas and Haasless lineups
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:09 am

    @ytsb wrote:I'm a huge fan of getting in guns that considerably outscore the next best option in their positions. At this point I think Tedesco, Cook, and Lolo (66.1 average >50 min and McInnes hard to justify atm) fit into that category, and having one of DCE/Cleary (With Brown there I really think Moses is handicapped in terms of fantasy points, Brown is such a good player) are good players to start with on day dot.

    I am hopeful that Manly go a bit better this year and DCE picks up kicking to boost him by a few points average, and Luai takes on a little more responsibility next year to bring Cleary down a peg, but it probably comes down to whether I can fit in the extra 100k for Cleary in my final draft.

    In my current draft I can fit Cook, Lolo, Fifita, Cleary, and Teddy in my team. Cleary and D. Fifi can be subbed for Matterson and DCE.
    I understand  and agree with  the logic but how Cook is far beyond in his position when McInnes is ahead in average and Grant isn’t far behind (although better to play McInnes at MID)
    Honey Badger
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    Post by Honey Badger Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:16 am

    Egan, J Brailey, Liddle all seem similar options. Egan would be the 3rd on the list for me because he costs the most and will have similar scores to the other two.
    ytsb
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    Post by ytsb Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:57 am

    @Camo123 wrote:
    I understand  and agree with  the logic but how Cook is far beyond in his position when McInnes is ahead in average and Grant isn’t far behind (although better to play McInnes at MID)

    I'm unsure if Grant will play 80 and McInnes is uncertain I guess
    StormTrooper96
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:07 pm

    For those that are looking at having a gun CTR in their squad instead of gambling with the likes of Averillo, Walker, Niu, etc… have you considered to look no further than Euan Aitken. He has averaged 40+ when playing centre and more than 70 minutes every single season since his entrance in 2015. He is an expensive decision at 561K and is priced pretty much around his career average in the low 40’s but that’s it, you get what you pay for and he rarely ever misses a game. Moving to the warriors he could be freed up a little with their off the cusp style of play. Warriors score a tonne of tries around their edges so he would have an enormous amount of opportunities. Could be that guy you pay for, but stick him in and he will stay there all year and average over 40 for ya instead of wasting heaps of trades in that area.
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:12 pm

    @StormTrooper96 wrote:For those that are looking at having a gun CTR in their squad instead of gambling with the likes of Averillo, Walker, Niu, etc… have you considered to look no further than Euan Aitken. He has averaged 40+ when playing centre and more than 70 minutes every single season since his entrance in 2015. He is an expensive decision at 561K and is priced pretty much around his career average in the low 40’s but that’s it, you get what you pay for and he rarely ever misses a game. Moving to the warriors he could be freed up a little with their off the cusp style of play. Warriors score a tonne of tries around their edges so he would have an enormous amount of opportunities. Could be that guy you pay for, but stick him in and he will stay there all year and average over 40 for ya instead of wasting heaps of trades in that area.

    On the flip side whichever winger plays outside Aitken is never going to see the ball again, so avoid them at all costs.
    Jumping Marlin
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    Post by Jumping Marlin Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:23 pm

    @mrbrownstone wrote:

    Yes and for those reasons I'll be avoiding him, it's just that his average jumps so much from 50-60 minute games to 60+ minute games.

    .

    Could it be that he gets subbed off earlier when he’s playing poorly?
    Holy Moly
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    Post by Holy Moly Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:24 pm

    Centre is still a tough position in fantasy 2021 and is the most likely position where players prices will drop allowing bargains to be snapped up. Even Aitken lost 100k at the start of last season. Problem with that strategy is keeping a decent amount of cash on hand to snap up the bargains when they arrive and that's only if there aren't more pressing issues at hand.

    I'd also like to see Fanhub separate wingers and fullbacks and halfbacks and five-eighths if being closer to the real game is what they're after.
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:25 pm

    @StormTrooper96 wrote:For those that are looking at having a gun CTR in their squad instead of gambling with the likes of Averillo, Walker, Niu, etc… have you considered to look no further than Euan Aitken. He has averaged 40+ when playing centre and more than 70 minutes every single season since his entrance in 2015. He is an expensive decision at 561K and is priced pretty much around his career average in the low 40’s but that’s it, you get what you pay for and he rarely ever misses a game. Moving to the warriors he could be freed up a little with their off the cusp style of play. Warriors score a tonne of tries around their edges so he would have an enormous amount of opportunities. Could be that guy you pay for, but stick him in and he will stay there all year and average over 40 for ya instead of wasting heaps of trades in that area.

    I'd probably prefer Joseph Manu at that price, but I'm not spending that much on a centre. I'm looking at the cheap centres, but my decision will be based not necessarily who I think will score the most, but who has the best job security.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:36 pm

    @Holy Moly wrote:
    I'd also like to see Fanhub separate wingers and fullbacks and halfbacks and five-eighths  if being closer to the real game is what they're after.

    With only 8 bench spots, splitting up starting positions into more categories is the absolute last thing they should be doing.

    Even without that, splitting halves and five-eighths is the most pointless thing they could do. Just look at supercoach where a whole heap of halves randomly get DPP and some others don't. Adds no value whatsoever.

    Splitting wingers and fullbacks might make more sense, but especially with the smaller squads size would just make it harder to field a team in case of injury and make it as much a game of DPP as anything else. Would be interesting to make people choose between Teddy and Ponga though (and how many fullbacks to have on your bench if you can only ever have 1 in your starting 13)
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    Post by Milchcow Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:43 pm

    @mrbrownstone wrote:

    Yes and for those reasons I'll be avoiding him, it's just that his average jumps so much from 50-60 minute games to 60+ minute games.

    .
    @Jumping Marlin wrote:
    Could it be that he gets subbed off earlier when he’s playing poorly?

    2 of his 3 <60 minute games last year were played before round 3, when the rules changed to make scoring points easier. The other one was a 37-26 try fest where his tackle count was way down.

    So I think he can score around 40, even with only 60 minutes. but he's below Liddle and Brailey, so will probably avoid him unless things change in pre-season.
    White Lightning
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    Post by White Lightning Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:43 pm

    This is what I have so far with 100k bank:

    J. Brailey
    A. Crichton, Ford, Taumalolo
    Davey, Gilbert
    Cleary (c), Munster
    Bird, Averillo
    AJ Brimson, Turbo, Sex Toy

    Liddle, Egan, Watson, Lam
    Riki, Blore, Max Feagai, Niu
    The Pascoe Fiasco
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    Post by The Pascoe Fiasco Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:10 pm

    @StormTrooper96 wrote:For those that are looking at having a gun CTR in their squad instead of gambling with the likes of Averillo, Walker, Niu, etc… have you considered to look no further than Euan Aitken. He has averaged 40+ when playing centre and more than 70 minutes every single season since his entrance in 2015. He is an expensive decision at 561K and is priced pretty much around his career average in the low 40’s but that’s it, you get what you pay for and he rarely ever misses a game. Moving to the warriors he could be freed up a little with their off the cusp style of play. Warriors score a tonne of tries around their edges so he would have an enormous amount of opportunities. Could be that guy you pay for, but stick him in and he will stay there all year and average over 40 for ya instead of wasting heaps of trades in that area.
    No doubt now he gets injured in Rd 1!
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:11 pm

    @my tv broke wrote:I'm going to keep reminding myself that Egan 2021 hype looks the same as why I picked Levi in 2020.

    Strong avoid. Take out the games he score's tries and his scores are shithouse. I don't think he keeps scoring tries. Sorry but he's a bad footy player.

    or could Egan be the Lomax of 2021??? Shocked





    naaah, I don't believe it... I don't think the Force is strong with this one
    The Pascoe Fiasco
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    Post by The Pascoe Fiasco Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:13 pm

    @Holy Moly wrote:Centre is still a tough position in fantasy 2021 and is the most likely position where players prices will drop allowing bargains to be snapped up. Even Aitken lost 100k at the start of last season. Problem with that strategy is keeping a decent amount of cash on hand to snap up the bargains when they arrive and that's only if there aren't more pressing issues at hand.

    I'd also like to see Fanhub separate wingers and fullbacks and halfbacks and five-eighths  if being closer to the real game is what they're after.
    That would be very similar to Supercoach then.

      Current date/time is Fri Sep 17, 2021 9:34 pm