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    MS's 2021 planning

    multiple.scoregasms
    multiple.scoregasms

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    MS's 2021 planning Empty MS's 2021 planning

    Post by multiple.scoregasms on Sun Sep 27, 2020 8:16 pm

    Mainly just looking to jot down some ideas with lessons learned and some early players to watch

    Lessons learned:
    - If you have a 50/50 decision between a POD and a popular player (JTurbo vs SJ) go with the popular guy. If they get injured everyone suffers with you, instead of suffering alone and burning trades
    - Halves that dominate kick metres have incredible floors. Rounding out the bench with these guys can give you a great boom with very little bust (DCE, Cleary, SJ, Moses)
    - Players who have a role that changes week to week with "potential" upside can post some very low scores and may not be worth it (Yeo, Twal)
    - Edge players moving to the middle as they age can produce some monster scores. In recent years we have seen Mannering, Tohu, Gillett etc get these roles and post some big scores
    - On a related note, someone like Tohu that is replacing a player(Tevaga) due back in 6+ weeks can still be a good buy. They may kill it and hold the role, if not you can deal with the problem in 6+ weeks
    - Depth and trades, in addition to a good 17 are crucial. I don't think I ever got to play my best 17, which makes 18th and 19th man very important.
    - Outside backs, in particular centres, are incredibly inconsistent and it's not worth paying for the "guns". I will be looking out for a high base (lot of tackles defending next to a shit half, goal kicking or lots of work in yardage sets). Trust talent when you see it in the young guys, otherwise go with job security
    - 80 minute second rowers are fantasy gold. They will have some down weeks due to game flow, but generally are safe for a 40 point score
    - Always wait a week to see if a cow passes the eye test. Guys like Fogarty and Grant shine, while guys like Hammer and O'Donnell flop. Grabbing these under performing guys will kill cash generation and waste trades

    Guys that look under valued based on average:
    Hooker
    Friend - Once again tempting me with his siren song. 3 low minute games are enough to bring down his average, however not sure there is keeper level upside.
    JBrailey - Average of 41 but didn't get a bump playing after the break where speed of the game increased. Only played 2 games so SHOULD get a decent discount. O'Brien has shown a willingness to play an 80 minute hooker where possible
    Hodgson - Like Friend, Hodgson is under priced due to injury affected games. Also like Friend probably not enough upside to start with unless he gets a serious discount
    Liddle - Average of 25 and should be locked in as Tigers starting hooker with Grant returning the Melbourne. Will probably split the role with Walter, but plenty of upside.

    Prop
    JWH - Average of 42.6 on the back of a lot of resting. Only had 1 stint on 5 occasions where he averaged 32. Other games have an average of 47.4. With a regular bye schedule he looks about 5 points under priced
    Mclean - 1 injury shortened game and a few where he was just shit. Would be banking on a turn around in form, but a few points of upside there
    Paseka - Probably done too much in the last 3 games to bump his price up, but the start spot should see a 6-8 point bump
    Jwal - A shocking start to the year, before a bounce back to end the year. His 7 highest scores came in the last 7 rounds, but will there be enough minutes in that pack
    Lodge - 50 average guy in 2019 priced at 32. Down campaign mainly due to injury. Almost a certainty to make my squad
    Leniu - Guy who passes the eye test. An MS favourite for that 20th man role where you don't play them unless absolutely necessary. Loss of Tamou should see a bump in minutes and a jump to 30-35 average. Talent will beat out Leota
    Bullemor - Another eye test guy, although probably not enough minutes in a full strength Brisbane pack
    RJames - Depends on level of discounting, but has shown ability to be a top tier prop.
    multiple.scoregasms
    multiple.scoregasms

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    MS's 2021 planning Empty Re: MS's 2021 planning

    Post by multiple.scoregasms on Sun Sep 27, 2020 8:17 pm

    Second Row

    Taumalolo - 3 lowest minute games to end the year. Take out the 2 under 40 and his average jumps from 61 to 66.
    Arrow - Averaged similar minutes to 2019, but attacking stats were way down. Playing in a more competitive team should be up for a 5+ point increase. Priced at his floor
    Riki - Passes the eye test and looks to have the Broncos second row spot locked up. Will be in most serious teams
    CHN - Ricky declared him as starting right second rower, priced at a 24.6 average. Will be one of the most popular players
    Gosiewski - Should be starting Manly second rower priced at 21.5

    Half

    Moses - Priced at 57, which is the lowest of the "big 3". Injury brings down his price slightly and was a pretty low try scoring year for Moses. Huge base dominating the kick metres
    SJ - Priced at 53.9, slightly unders due to injury. Burnt me twice by getting injured, but like DCE, Cleary, Moses he dominates the kick metres to have an incredible floor
    Brooks - With Benji moving on, Brooks should go back to dominating the kick metres. Averaged 50 last year in that role
    CHT - Priced at 35 with an average of 44 once he became starting halfback. Has some lower scores in him due to being a young undersized half, but tremendous upside
    Wakeham - When not paired with Lewis has shown a tendancy to dominate kick metres. Questionable job security, but if he starts week 1 he will be good value
    Milford - Priced at 31.9 is probably close to his floor. Will dominate kick metres in a better Brisbane team
    Watson - Average is down due to injuries not form. I have a suspicion the Knights will move him on and have Tex in that ball playing role off the bench. Depending on where he lands could make bulk cash very quickly
    Schuster - Passed the eye test on debut. With Manly signing Foran, there is a chance he doesn't have a starting spot round 1.
    Jrey - Limited minutes off the bench keeping his price down. Should be about 10 points under priced


    Last edited by multiple.scoregasms on Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:34 am; edited 2 times in total
    multiple.scoregasms
    multiple.scoregasms

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    MS's 2021 planning Empty Re: MS's 2021 planning

    Post by multiple.scoregasms on Sun Sep 27, 2020 8:17 pm

    Centres

    Latrell - Should be better for the run, which will likely see more of his mid season form than early season form. Boom or bust guy, but scores fantasy points in bunches. Probably needs to keep DPP to be relevant
    Kelly - Probably too rich for my blood at a 34 average, but priced down due to some injury affected games and will be playing behind a monster pack
    Hopoate - Priced well under his long term FB average. Will I be burnt by a Dogs player 3 years in a row?
    Marsters - Used to be a 40 average guy at centre, one to watch in preseason to see if he is having a dig.
    Roberts - Discount is due to injury not form. Souths will be better for the run this season and he will be an important piece of the puzzle in 2021. Like all centres has his ups and downs
    Scott - Another off season to work with Williams can only be good for him. Has gone close to 40 in the past
    Walker - Discount is due to injury not form. If he gets the 6 jersey again will be a must pick for me. Even if he ends up in the centres looks under valued
    Copley - Hopefully keeps his DPP. Would be a depth option to round out the 21
    Bird - On the radar depending on discount
    Kris - Very price dependent
    Billy Smith - Probably doesn't have a first grade spot on lock, but depending on resigning/preseason he might have a jersey by round 1


    Wing/Fullback

    To'o - Chance of a Nofo like jump due to his high base in TB and metres. Second half of his year way better than first half
    Tommy Turbo - Easily the cheapest of the top 5 fullbacks. Should also get a slight discount based on games played
    Val Holmes - Couple of injury affected games and lack of form/fitness early season. Had an incredible last few games
    Ramsey - The kid passes the eye test, but has probably ruined his price with two tries on debut. Any sort of meaningful discount that puts him under 300k will see him in my squad. Initial guide has him closer to 400k, which is probably a pass
    Farnworth - Score takes a big jump playing centre, but not sure there is enough upside to start with him
    Oates - Priced at 23 he should be at least 10 points under priced
    Simonsson - Will be close to rookie price due to injury and has past fantasy form


    multiple.scoregasms
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    MS's 2021 planning Empty Re: MS's 2021 planning

    Post by multiple.scoregasms on Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:38 am

    If there was no salary cap this is the squad I would want to run out with. Will be slightly over the starting cap so will have to make some sacrifices along the way

    JBrailey 453k
    Paseka 526k, Lodge 409k
    Taumalolo 896k, Arrow 655k, Riki 373k
    Moses 828k, Brooks 590k
    Roberts 364k, Walker 344k
    Turbo 517k, Holmes 540k, Oates 334k

    Liddle 330k, CHN 336k, Gosiewski 312k, CHT 511k

    Watson 351k, JRey 363k, Leniu 333k, Simonsson 228k

    EDIT: Have included prices based off Camo's sheet

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1T9FgBdM1E2VDyl2IuPiMQ_r1kRcoue_LjeAee7qFdKs/edit#gid=101873551
    The Pascoe Fiasco
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    Post by The Pascoe Fiasco on Sat Dec 12, 2020 12:12 am

    Isn’t J Brailley coming off an ACL, and Liddle made of glass?
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow on Sat Dec 12, 2020 4:55 pm

    @The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:Isn’t J Brailley coming off an ACL, and Liddle made of glass?

    I'd be more concerned with having players that have left the NRL than having players under an injury cloud.

    But fortunately for Ms, he won't be locked in to any picks he made before the 2020 season even finished
    The Pascoe Fiasco
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    Post by The Pascoe Fiasco on Sat Dec 12, 2020 9:07 pm

    @Milchcow wrote:

    I'd be more concerned with having players that have left the NRL than having players under an injury cloud.

    But fortunately for Ms, he won't be locked in to any picks he made before the 2020 season even finished
    I somehow managed to get through a couple of Telegraph article pay walls regarding 2021. Is it just because it’s the off season so doesn’t really help yet?
    multiple.scoregasms
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    MS's 2021 planning Empty Re: MS's 2021 planning

    Post by multiple.scoregasms on Sat Jan 16, 2021 3:58 pm

    The game has already changed with the introduction of middle and edge forwards. Initial thoughts are that edge forwards will be the better cash cows, while middle forwards will be better keepers

    Guys like Riki, Blore, CHN, Gosiewski, Tupouinua all relatively cheap and should have starting spots could see me starting the season with a stacked middle and cheap edge. Last year it was a struggle to fit in 2 captaincy options + a top tier half, while this year it looks like you can easily get 3, possibly 4. I still like the idea of stacking the bench with halves that dominate kicking for a decent floor

    Looking at something like this with over 650k left over

    JBrailey 418k
    Arrow 604k, Lodge 377k, Taumalolo 827k,
    Crichton 833k , Riki 344k
    Moses 766k, Brooks 544k
    Averillo 302k, Walker 317k
    Turbo 477k, Holmes 498k, Oates 310k

    Liddle 304k, CHN 310k, Gosiewski 288k, CHT 472k

    Watson 323k, Ah Mau 311k, Leniu 307k, Simonsson 228k

    This would give the option of Brailey>Cook, Oates>Papy, Lodge>Haas etc.

    Interest in the likes of Moylan, Blore, Tupouinua, Ryan James, Roosters half, Papenhuyzen as those on the edge of my squad that will come into various versions. I'll probably end up going more gun heavy, dropping some of the bench dollars for top level guns

      Current date/time is Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:55 am