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Mainly just looking to jot down some ideas with lessons learned and some early players to watch
Lessons learned:
- If you have a 50/50 decision between a POD and a popular player (JTurbo vs SJ) go with the popular guy. If they get injured everyone suffers with you, instead of suffering alone and burning trades
- Halves that dominate kick metres have incredible floors. Rounding out the bench with these guys can give you a great boom with very little bust (DCE, Cleary, SJ, Moses)
- Players who have a role that changes week to week with "potential" upside can post some very low scores and may not be worth it (Yeo, Twal)
- Edge players moving to the middle as they age can produce some monster scores. In recent years we have seen Mannering, Tohu, Gillett etc get these roles and post some big scores
- On a related note, someone like Tohu that is replacing a player(Tevaga) due back in 6+ weeks can still be a good buy. They may kill it and hold the role, if not you can deal with the problem in 6+ weeks
- Depth and trades, in addition to a good 17 are crucial. I don't think I ever got to play my best 17, which makes 18th and 19th man very important.
- Outside backs, in particular centres, are incredibly inconsistent and it's not worth paying for the "guns". I will be looking out for a high base (lot of tackles defending next to a shit half, goal kicking or lots of work in yardage sets). Trust talent when you see it in the young guys, otherwise go with job security
- 80 minute second rowers are fantasy gold. They will have some down weeks due to game flow, but generally are safe for a 40 point score
- Always wait a week to see if a cow passes the eye test. Guys like Fogarty and Grant shine, while guys like Hammer and O'Donnell flop. Grabbing these under performing guys will kill cash generation and waste trades
Guys that look under valued based on average:
Hooker
Friend - Once again tempting me with his siren song. 3 low minute games are enough to bring down his average, however not sure there is keeper level upside.
JBrailey - Average of 41 but didn't get a bump playing after the break where speed of the game increased. Only played 2 games so SHOULD get a decent discount. O'Brien has shown a willingness to play an 80 minute hooker where possible
Hodgson - Like Friend, Hodgson is under priced due to injury affected games. Also like Friend probably not enough upside to start with unless he gets a serious discount
Liddle - Average of 25 and should be locked in as Tigers starting hooker with Grant returning the Melbourne. Will probably split the role with Walter, but plenty of upside.
Prop
JWH - Average of 42.6 on the back of a lot of resting. Only had 1 stint on 5 occasions where he averaged 32. Other games have an average of 47.4. With a regular bye schedule he looks about 5 points under priced
Mclean - 1 injury shortened game and a few where he was just shit. Would be banking on a turn around in form, but a few points of upside there
Paseka - Probably done too much in the last 3 games to bump his price up, but the start spot should see a 6-8 point bump
Jwal - A shocking start to the year, before a bounce back to end the year. His 7 highest scores came in the last 7 rounds, but will there be enough minutes in that pack
Lodge - 50 average guy in 2019 priced at 32. Down campaign mainly due to injury. Almost a certainty to make my squad
Leniu - Guy who passes the eye test. An MS favourite for that 20th man role where you don't play them unless absolutely necessary. Loss of Tamou should see a bump in minutes and a jump to 30-35 average. Talent will beat out Leota
Bullemor - Another eye test guy, although probably not enough minutes in a full strength Brisbane pack
RJames - Depends on level of discounting, but has shown ability to be a top tier prop.
Lessons learned:
- If you have a 50/50 decision between a POD and a popular player (JTurbo vs SJ) go with the popular guy. If they get injured everyone suffers with you, instead of suffering alone and burning trades
- Halves that dominate kick metres have incredible floors. Rounding out the bench with these guys can give you a great boom with very little bust (DCE, Cleary, SJ, Moses)
- Players who have a role that changes week to week with "potential" upside can post some very low scores and may not be worth it (Yeo, Twal)
- Edge players moving to the middle as they age can produce some monster scores. In recent years we have seen Mannering, Tohu, Gillett etc get these roles and post some big scores
- On a related note, someone like Tohu that is replacing a player(Tevaga) due back in 6+ weeks can still be a good buy. They may kill it and hold the role, if not you can deal with the problem in 6+ weeks
- Depth and trades, in addition to a good 17 are crucial. I don't think I ever got to play my best 17, which makes 18th and 19th man very important.
- Outside backs, in particular centres, are incredibly inconsistent and it's not worth paying for the "guns". I will be looking out for a high base (lot of tackles defending next to a shit half, goal kicking or lots of work in yardage sets). Trust talent when you see it in the young guys, otherwise go with job security
- 80 minute second rowers are fantasy gold. They will have some down weeks due to game flow, but generally are safe for a 40 point score
- Always wait a week to see if a cow passes the eye test. Guys like Fogarty and Grant shine, while guys like Hammer and O'Donnell flop. Grabbing these under performing guys will kill cash generation and waste trades
Guys that look under valued based on average:
Hooker
Friend - Once again tempting me with his siren song. 3 low minute games are enough to bring down his average, however not sure there is keeper level upside.
JBrailey - Average of 41 but didn't get a bump playing after the break where speed of the game increased. Only played 2 games so SHOULD get a decent discount. O'Brien has shown a willingness to play an 80 minute hooker where possible
Hodgson - Like Friend, Hodgson is under priced due to injury affected games. Also like Friend probably not enough upside to start with unless he gets a serious discount
Liddle - Average of 25 and should be locked in as Tigers starting hooker with Grant returning the Melbourne. Will probably split the role with Walter, but plenty of upside.
Prop
JWH - Average of 42.6 on the back of a lot of resting. Only had 1 stint on 5 occasions where he averaged 32. Other games have an average of 47.4. With a regular bye schedule he looks about 5 points under priced
Mclean - 1 injury shortened game and a few where he was just shit. Would be banking on a turn around in form, but a few points of upside there
Paseka - Probably done too much in the last 3 games to bump his price up, but the start spot should see a 6-8 point bump
Jwal - A shocking start to the year, before a bounce back to end the year. His 7 highest scores came in the last 7 rounds, but will there be enough minutes in that pack
Lodge - 50 average guy in 2019 priced at 32. Down campaign mainly due to injury. Almost a certainty to make my squad
Leniu - Guy who passes the eye test. An MS favourite for that 20th man role where you don't play them unless absolutely necessary. Loss of Tamou should see a bump in minutes and a jump to 30-35 average. Talent will beat out Leota
Bullemor - Another eye test guy, although probably not enough minutes in a full strength Brisbane pack
RJames - Depends on level of discounting, but has shown ability to be a top tier prop.
