NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 9

MTBs Site - Stats, BE, Match Centre, Interchange Times, Price Predictor[/b]
http://www.footystatistics.com/

MTB's team builder
http://footystatistics.com/team_planner_2020.php


Excel links

Milchcow's excel solver
https://www.mediafire.com/file/kcuwhduwp4n227e/2020_Fantasy_Solver_v1.0.xlsm/file

Milchcow's team planner
https://www.mediafire.com/file/pj9xsl5oxf2rgwd/2020_Team_Planner_v0.1.xlsx/file

arsen's excel
http://www.mediafire.com/file/3tr3at0u11gg7mo/NRL_Fantasy_2020.xlsx/file

mattnz's excel sheet
https://www.mediafire.com/file/ez4a4ipfe11s4h5/2020_players_updated.xlsx/file

Steve Nicholls (RNGD Analytics) excel database
https://www.mediafire.com/file/mxuesns6qcmu9qc/RFS_2014-19_Data_%28v1.0%29.xlsm/file


2020 BYE PLANNER


Player Prices  

https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t1127-2020-prices

Price change formula

New Price = 0.75 * old price + 0.25 * Weighted average * MN

Weighted average = (5*G1 + 4*G2 + 3*G3 + 2*G4 + G5) ÷ 15

G1 = most recent game
G2 = game before that
G3 = game before that
Etc

Before a player has played 4 games, they are assumed to have scored their priced average for the missing games from the weighted average

God damnit Chewie, I just took Lolo back out of my team and all those wrecking ball .gifs have somehow swayed me back into the fold!

Rabbits21 wrote:
I think that locks him into all serious teams front row for sure and certain!

I think the edge to commonly owned value assets (heavily owned) by people you will ultimately be competing with (ie. forums like this) is to try and fit them onto your bench instead.

Nothing worse than seeing your opponent get your carrigan points, on their bench, with a starter to come! Same goes for Friend and/or Koro.

Anyone else thinking Frizz is looking good value? Was sub par last year, but he's in contract year, and under priced.. Could be a solid mid ranger with some value to add. I'm thinking of upgrading Hess to him on the bench. Only problem is he could go on to slowly gain 50k and sit on my bench all season averaging in the low 40's. Which is fine, but not ideal. At least Hess would gain some cash, or be rubbish and dumped quickly ha!

I'm punting with Tapine, he was managed through injury last season. I'm hoping for 60 minutes of attack. Also I have Tohu Harris in the side (I think people forget how good he is, look for a lot of the Warriors attack to go through him). Bit of a POD.

Shibaski is sitting in my centres ATM, has good numbers when he's played there. Needs to beat out the others though, TLT might change this. Naden is a little un proven, but I think he could break out this year too. Are people expecting good minutes from Aubo? Him and Burn's are the only guys I'm considering paying decent $$ for at the start of the season.

Man so many little things to over think on.

Who do we think is gonna make more money, Friend or Knight?

I’m finding it very tight to call!

How many hookers is everyone running with right now in their top 17 (excluding Mann)?

I have 3 right now.

Is anyone considering starting with 4 hookers or only starting with 2 hookers?

I am wondering who is going to stop Thomas Mikaele playing bigger minutes in the tigers pack, He appears to have a starting role sorted.

What happened to all the colours, bold and pictures ? Who hired this cunt ??? Hold on, might need him to set up a league. Great job @Welshy keep up the good work

Rabbits21 wrote:Who do we think is gonna make more money, Friend or Knight?

I’m finding it very tight to call!

How many hookers is everyone running with right now in their top 17 (excluding Mann)?

I have 3 right now.

Is anyone considering starting with 4 hookers or only starting with 2 hookers?

I just have two hookers.. C. Smith and Friend

my tv broke wrote:

Madge?

He played a lot of low minute games when starting last year. Not saying that will definitely continue, hes had another year to develop/etc, but its a bit of an unknown

I mean who is in the Tigers prop rotation who is gonna play big minutes at prop. There does not seem to be too many options to take to minutes off him

No Worries wrote:What happened to all the colours, bold and pictures ? Who hired this cunt ??? Hold on, might need him to set up a league. Great job @Welshy keep up the good work

Get Fucked

castlecrag sweethearts wrote:I am wondering who is going to stop Thomas Mikaele playing bigger minutes in the tigers pack, He appears to have a starting role sorted.

If the Tigers have a 14, like Mbye/ Reynolds etc then the three remaining bench will be MCK, Aloiai, and Musgrove!

Did I say FRF was bereft this year?
I currently have 6 props in my team

Anyone playing Tapine? I haven’t got a Raider and feel I need one. He’s the only one I can think of that will easily pass his average (unless he gets suspended or injured).

The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:Anyone playing Tapine? I haven’t got a Raider and feel I need one. He’s the only one I can think of that will easily pass his average (unless he gets suspended or injured).

More than likely on my bench, too much potential upside

Rabbits21 wrote:Who do we think is gonna make more money, Friend or Knight?

I’m finding it very tight to call!

How many hookers is everyone running with right now in their top 17 (excluding Mann)?

I have 3 right now.

Is anyone considering starting with 4 hookers or only starting with 2 hookers?

Potentially 4 but only 3 as of today. Levi made way for Hess. Quite tough deciding who to keep cause so many of the middies could go well.

Trying to explain by example how positional difference is important. Lets assume that all these players perform well and score 10 points more than they are priced at, for simplicity (all numbers taken from MTBs site for consistency):

Team A (all players that I am deliberately avoiding):
Sua $412k priced at 28, scores 38
Stimson $390k priced at 27, scores 37
Brailey $400k priced at 28, scores 38
Lowe $430k priced at 30, scores 40
All 4 need to be in starting 17 to start the season, total cost $1,632k

Team B:
Burns $500k priced at 34, scores 44
Kikau $642k priced at 44, scores 54
Luai $249k priced at 17, scores 27
Amone $246k priced at 17, scores 27
All 4 need to be in starting 17 to start the season, total cost $1,637

So the assumption is that both groups of 4 players that may be the only differences in our 17s score on average 40 points per week better than their cost.

The difference is that in a few weeks time Team A has all these 2RF and HOK players that haven't peaked yet, and need to be upgraded, as they aren't scoring enough to justify a starting spot in their positions, or even in 14-17. If you wait for them to max out at the full 10 point difference, they need to sit in NPRs, which wastes team value, that isn't converted into points in your scoring 17.

This is much less of an issue for team B, where you can easily drop the players averaging 27 to the NPRs until they max out in value, then trade them. The 2 players performing well in their positions at CTR averaging 44 and 2RF averaging 54 don't need any attention at all until at least the byes.

That is why position matters and the expected scores in each position equally matter as the season progresses.

castlecrag sweethearts wrote:

I just have two hookers.. C. Smith and Friend

I see Api as a must have, haven't seen many teams here without him.