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    NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 4

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    TheRookie101

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    Post by TheRookie101 on Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:28 am

    Any love for Corey Horsbrough?
    Rapture_NRL
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    Post by Rapture_NRL on Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:45 am

    @The Goat Boys wrote:With JMK. If the bulldogs name katoa. Are we still expecting 70+ minutes.

    I don't see katoa playing any hooker role unless JMK is gassed. They might carry a utility like Holland if he's not starting which might be a slight risk. Jackson can also be serviceable from dummy but there really isn't and out-and-out hooker in their squad that I know of (could be wrong). I'm expecting 65+ from JMK
    Liverpool_Bulldog
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog on Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:00 am

    Cheers lads, registration done and awaiting my dropping from L1.

    I like Friend this year but i just cant do it again
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    Post by Bethany_B on Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:20 am

    Which combo do you guys think is better?

    A: Moses + Fotuaika

    B: JMK + Taupau
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    Post by Mulvy on Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:25 am

    @Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Cheers lads, registration done and awaiting my dropping from L1.

    I like Friend this year but i just cant do it again

    Jesus teaches forgiveness Very Happy  

    Or so I'm told.
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy on Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:26 am

    @Bethany_B wrote:Which combo do you guys think is better?

    A: Moses + Fotuaika

    B: JMK + Taupau

    A for me
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    Post by lukeaye on Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:26 am

    @Pookus McFly wrote:

    Yeah I have become a bit of a convert as I am now convinced his price tag pretty fairly represents his output. As long as $/points is justified I don’t mind if have one player who is not undervalued, just as long as he isn’t overvalued. Especially as a captain pick, we did it every year with Smith and Parker, more recently with Cook.

    One glaring weakness in my calculations was stating that 50% of the time he finds 36T, 200RM and 5TBs, but these are all independent values. That 71 points in base would be like flipping the same coin three times and getting tails every time (12.5%).  But no reason why you can’t flip tails just twice (25%), and access that premium on two stats, combinations of which find 65-66 fantasy points (still minus any tries or line breaks).

    There is no avoiding him any longer.

    I'm not expecting upside from Haas, I don't think anyone should.

    But there is nobody else even close who i can leave the C on each week.
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy on Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:28 am

    @Rapture_NRL wrote:

    I don't see katoa playing any hooker role unless JMK is gassed. They might carry a utility like Holland if he's not starting which might be a slight risk. Jackson can also be serviceable from dummy but there really isn't and out-and-out hooker in their squad that I know of (could be wrong). I'm expecting 65+ from JMK

    Perfect summary imo.
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    Post by Chewie on Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:31 am

    @Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Cheers lads, registration done and awaiting my dropping from L1.

    I like Friend this year but i just cant do it again

    Welcome back LB!
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    Post by Milchcow on Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:35 am


    I have re-stickied an old thread for a bunch of excel links, and a thread about Break Evens and Price changes

    Go here for links
    https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t128-fantasy-resources

    Some stuff is a bit old but all the links should still work
    The bit on pricing is out of data with the new subjective pricing, but the BEs bit should still be good
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    Post by Chewie on Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:40 am

    @MTB Would you be able to generate a list of the top 50 players by ownership through your website? Just to help out with our community team player selection.
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    Post by Milchcow on Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:43 am

    @Chewie wrote:@MTB Would you be able to generate a list of the top 50 players by ownership through your website? Just to help out with our community team player selection.

    From most popular to 50th most popular (unlike whatever awesome solution mtb comes up with, this won't auto update)

    Jarome Luai
    David Fifita
    Zac Lomax
    Payne Haas
    Bradman Best
    Ryan Papenhuyzen
    Billy Magoulias
    Blayke Brailey
    Jason Taumalolo
    Valentine Holmes
    James Tedesco
    Starford To'a
    Tommy Talau
    Tino Faasuamaleaui
    Cameron Murray
    Tom Trbojevic
    Jamayne Isaako
    Mitchell Moses
    Harry Grant
    Apisai Koroisau
    Alexander Brimson
    Tom Starling
    Tristan Sailor
    Billy Burns
    Latrell Mitchell
    Damien Cook
    Jaydn Su'A
    Cooper Johns
    Nathan Cleary
    Jack Williams
    Liam Knight
    Kalyn Ponga
    Adam Doueihi
    Victor Radley
    Aaron Pene
    Luke Keary
    Roger Tuivasa-Sheck
    Sam McIntyre
    Joe Lovodua
    Xavier Coates
    Kotoni Staggs
    Jason Saab
    Wayde Egan
    Jarrod Croker
    Zane Musgrove
    Jake Friend
    Josh Papalii
    Cameron Smith
    Brodie Croft
    Sam Scarlett
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    Post by Milchcow on Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:45 am


    Why do more than 10% of fantasy coaches own Joe Lovodua?

    Is he getting chucked into auto-fill teams or something?
    There's a few other guys with high selection rates - I assume they are just cheap place-holders but some of them are strange options
    Liverpool_Bulldog
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog on Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:51 am

    @Bethany_B wrote:Which combo do you guys think is better?

    A: Moses + Fotuaika

    B: JMK + Taupau

    A, easily. Mainly because i dont trust the Bulldogs haha


    Last edited by Liverpool_Bulldog on Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:55 am; edited 1 time in total
    Rapture_NRL
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    Post by Rapture_NRL on Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:54 am

    @Milchcow wrote:
    Why do more than 10% of fantasy coaches own Joe Lovodua?

    Is he getting chucked into auto-fill teams or something?
    There's a few other guys with high selection rates - I assume they are just cheap place-holders but some of them are strange options

    Probably because they haven't coded the Auto-Pick function correctly. Mind you, last year, my Auto-Pick team was a lot better than what I actually settled on Sad
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    Post by Milchcow on Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:01 pm

    @Milchcow wrote:
    Why do more than 10% of fantasy coaches own Joe Lovodua?

    Is he getting chucked into auto-fill teams or something?
    There's a few other guys with high selection rates - I assume they are just cheap place-holders but some of them are strange options

    @Rapture_NRL wrote:
    Probably because they haven't coded the Auto-Pick function correctly. Mind you, last year, my Auto-Pick team was a lot better than what I actually settled on Sad

    yeah, I just refreshed my team and auto-filled and it gave me a bench of
    Scarlett
    Pene
    Sam Smith
    Schonig
    Lovodua
    McIntyre
    Starling
    Billy Burns

    who all have at least 7% ownership, and are all useless.

    I think autopick has a bit of a weighting towards popular players, so I wonder if it picked these guys a couple of times by pure chance, and then they passed a threshold into becoming deemed viable picks by the algorithm and just kept getting picked more and more

    No Worries
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    Post by No Worries on Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:08 pm

    @Milchcow wrote:
    Why do more than 10% of fantasy coaches own Joe Lovodua?

    Is he getting chucked into auto-fill teams or something?
    There's a few other guys with high selection rates - I assume they are just cheap place-holders but some of them are strange options

    It's Auto-fill. Picked Haas and 2 gun halves and got


    Starling
    Scarlett
    Lovodua
    To'a
    Holmes
    Burns
    Best
    Musgrove
    Douhickey
    Tolo

    all off the list


    EDIT: Yep got Sam Smith & Schonig too
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    Post by Chewie on Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:17 pm

    @Milchcow wrote:

    From most popular to 50th most popular (unlike whatever awesome solution mtb comes up with, this won't auto update)

    Jarome Luai
    David Fifita
    Zac Lomax
    Payne Haas
    Bradman Best
    Ryan Papenhuyzen
    Billy Magoulias
    Blayke Brailey
    Jason Taumalolo
    Valentine Holmes
    James Tedesco
    Starford To'a
    Tommy Talau
    Tino Faasuamaleaui
    Cameron Murray
    Tom Trbojevic
    Jamayne Isaako
    Mitchell Moses
    Harry Grant
    Apisai Koroisau
    Alexander Brimson
    Tom Starling
    Tristan Sailor
    Billy Burns
    Latrell Mitchell
    Damien Cook
    Jaydn Su'A
    Cooper Johns
    Nathan Cleary
    Jack Williams
    Liam Knight
    Kalyn Ponga
    Adam Doueihi
    Victor Radley
    Aaron Pene
    Luke Keary
    Roger Tuivasa-Sheck
    Sam McIntyre
    Joe Lovodua
    Xavier Coates
    Kotoni Staggs
    Jason Saab
    Wayde Egan
    Jarrod Croker
    Zane Musgrove
    Jake Friend
    Josh Papalii
    Cameron Smith
    Brodie Croft
    Sam Scarlett

    Thanks Milch!
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    Post by Mulvy on Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:19 pm

    @TheRookie101 wrote:Any love for Corey Horsbrough?

    Seems fairly priced at 32. To be any value he'd have to get over 40 mins and keep up his ppm of about 1.0. There's a lot of competition in that pack. Edges play 80, four forward bench likely (Havili plays mostly as a middle forward when Hodgson is fit) Needs a couple of injuries I'd say.
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    Post by Chewie on Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:19 pm

    @Milchcow wrote:



    yeah, I just refreshed my team and auto-filled and it gave me a bench of
    Scarlett
    Pene
    Sam Smith
    Schonig
    Lovodua
    McIntyre
    Starling
    Billy Burns

    who all have at least 7% ownership, and are all useless.

    I think autopick has a bit of a weighting towards popular players, so I wonder if it picked these guys a couple of times by pure chance, and then they passed a threshold into becoming deemed viable picks by the algorithm and just kept getting picked more and more


    Maybe Fanhub knows something we don't know? Welcome to my team Joe Lovodua!

      Current date/time is Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:42 pm