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    NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 2

    No Worries
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    Post by No Worries on Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:09 pm

    Broncos Bulldogs Cowboys Sea Eagles Dragons Eels Knights Panthers
    Rabbitohs Raiders Roosters Sharks Storm Titans Warriors Tigers

    MTBs Site - Stats, BE, Match Centre, Interchange Times, Price Predictor

    http://www.footystatistics.com/

    MTB's team builder
    http://footystatistics.com/team_planner_2020.php


    Excel links


    Milchcow's excel solver
    https://www.mediafire.com/file/kcuwhduwp4n227e/2020_Fantasy_Solver_v1.0.xlsm/file

    Milchcow's team planner
    https://www.mediafire.com/file/pj9xsl5oxf2rgwd/2020_Team_Planner_v0.1.xlsx/file

    arsen's excel
    http://www.mediafire.com/file/3tr3at0u11gg7mo/NRL_Fantasy_2020.xlsx/file

    mattnz's excel sheet
    https://www.mediafire.com/file/ez4a4ipfe11s4h5/2020_players_updated.xlsx/file



    2020 BYE PLANNER

    NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 2 MXmc9V9

    Player Prices  

    https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t1127-2020-prices

    Price change formula

    New Price = 0.75 * old price + 0.25 * Weighted average * MN

    Weighted average = (5*G1 + 4*G2 + 3*G3 + 2*G4 + G5) ÷ 15

    G1 = most recent game
    G2 = game before that
    G3 = game before that
    Etc

    Before a player has played 4 games, they are assumed to have scored their priced average for the missing games from the weighted average


    Last edited by No Worries on Thu Jan 23, 2020 12:38 pm; edited 2 times in total
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie on Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:14 pm

    Papenhuyzen got a little bump in price, nothing to crazy though
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    Post by StormTrooper96 on Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:16 pm

    Max King could be a POD. He played a few games for the Storm at the back end of the year. His PPM is pretty decent and from watching him I really really like his work rate and the way he plays. If he can somehow find around 35-40 minutes off the bench he could be a quick money maker being priced at like 22 points.

    Looking closer at King in his games playing over 30 minutes off the bench which he has had 8 games in the last 2 years (looking purely off the bench as he won’t get a start at the Storm) he has an average of 37.25 points a game, ranging from 23 to 57, for an average of 39.75 minutes a game
    Looking at his scores when playing over 40 minutes off the bench (5 Games) he has an average of 42.4 ranging from 28 to 57 for an average of 44 minutes a game.
    This pick would be hard as we are unsure of exactly what sort of minutes we will be looking at, plus with no forwards departing the Storm it’s hard to see the rotations changing. All I know is if the minutes are there for him he will be a safe bet I reckon.


    I see Tino spending the year playing for the Falcons
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    Post by Mulvy on Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:27 pm

    Looks like Pappy got a price bump of 3 points to his average. Cam Smith on the other hand got a slight reduction of 0.5 to his average. Also he says Pappy's break even is 41 which aligns with my theory of MN = 14500.
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    Post by KingTeddy on Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:30 pm

    I have no idea how I am going to manage to fit Haas, DFifi, Lil Papi and Cleary into my side with it being well balanced. Gonna be a struggle this year :/
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy on Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:31 pm

    @KingTeddy wrote:I have no idea how I am going to manage to fit Haas, DFifi, Lil Papi and Cleary into my side with it being well balanced. Gonna be a struggle this year :/

    It's a struggle every year Very Happy but wouldn't have it any other way!
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    Post by Mulvy on Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:35 pm

    @StormTrooper96 wrote:Max King could be a POD. He played a few games for the Storm at the back end of the year. His PPM is pretty decent and from watching him I really really like his work rate and the way he plays. If he can somehow find around 35-40 minutes off the bench he could be a quick money maker being priced at like 22 points.

    Looking closer at King in his games playing over 30 minutes off the bench which he has had 8 games in the last 2 years (looking purely off the bench as he won’t get a start at the Storm) he has an average of 37.25 points a game, ranging from 23 to 57,  for an average of 39.75 minutes a game
    Looking at his scores when playing over 40 minutes off the bench (5 Games) he has an average of 42.4 ranging from 28 to 57 for an average of 44 minutes a game.
    This pick would be hard as we are unsure of exactly what sort of minutes we will be looking at, plus with no forwards departing the Storm it’s hard to see the rotations changing. All I know is if the minutes are there for him he will be a safe bet I reckon.


    I see Tino spending the year playing for the Falcons

    One of my rules is to avoid picking bench forwards hoping for more minutes. You're right about him getting the points if he gets the minutes though. Might be one to watch during trials especially if the Storm have an injury or two in their forward ranks.
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    Post by Mulvy on Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:55 pm

    Just for fun I plugged Payne Haas into Milchy's price predictor with starting value 999000 and MN 14500 and his first five scores from 2019. If he repeated those efforts he will have dropped 89k leading into round six......
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    Post by StormTrooper96 on Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:58 pm

    @Mulvy wrote:Just for fun I plugged Payne Haas into Milchy's price predictor with starting value 999000 and MN 14500 and his first five scores from 2019. If he repeated those efforts he will have dropped 89k leading into round six......

    Forking out 910K in R6 is just as hard if not harder than forking out 999K in R1
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    Post by Milchcow on Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:23 pm

    I think the biggest impact of the pricing won't be in initial teams (which I suspect will have a similar variety to previous years)

    But the biggest impact will be on final team creation. Last year everyone made tonnes of cash quickly, and everyone had killer teams straight after Origin. Scoring 1000 became expectation, not an achievement

    If they price in a few hundred grand of price rises into starting prices, we won't make as much money as quickly and final teams will take longer to assemble, plus may not be as good once we are done.

    I think this is a good thing. If people are forced to compromise on final squads and not just chuck the best players together, we should see a more interesting run home
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    Post by my tv broke on Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:24 pm

    Anyone got any super secret PODs that they are already set on starting with?
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    Post by Milchcow on Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:25 pm

    @StormTrooper96 wrote:

    Forking out 910K in R6 is just as hard if not harder than forking out 999K in R1

    Assuming we haven't picked total shit, and even accounting for new prices, we should have made hundreds of grand profit by round 6. It won't be harder to buy a player who is cheaper than he was round 1
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    Post by No Worries on Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:26 pm

    @my tv broke wrote:Anyone got any super secret PODs that they are already set on starting with?

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    Post by robelgordo on Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:27 pm

    @my tv broke wrote:Anyone got any super secret PODs that they are already set on starting with?

    Hmmm this seems like a trap
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms on Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:34 pm

    @my tv broke wrote:Anyone got any super secret PODs that they are already set on starting with?

    Not so much secret but I'll be almost certainly starting with Bateman
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    Post by my tv broke on Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:35 pm

    @robelgordo wrote:

    Hmmm this seems like a trap

    Not at all. Just bored and mixing up the discussion.

    I don't have any myself. Haven't looked closely at anyone yet tho either.
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    Post by Mulvy on Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:37 pm

    @multiple.scoregasms wrote:

    Not so much secret but I'll be almost certainly starting with Bateman

    The Williams/Hodgson connection or something else?
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    Post by robelgordo on Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:43 pm

    @my tv broke wrote:

    Not at all. Just bored and mixing up the discussion.

    I don't have any myself. Haven't looked closely at anyone yet tho either.

    I’m the same. I think there’s so much discussion and analysis here that even players I thought might be a bit left-field end up being discussed at length. Like MoFo.

    There are some players I want to pick if they get starts, but at that point they get on everyone’s radar and the advantage is lost anyway.
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    Post by Goodnight Kiwi on Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:48 pm

    @my tv broke wrote:Anyone got any super secret PODs that they are already set on starting with?

    Know he got talked about a few pages back but I loved having Burns in my Centres last year and will be looking to start with him. Unsure on how PODy he will be come Round 1, but if cheap Centres emerge he may be overlooked. Currently thinking of going Mbye and Burns and being done with Centre. Which could be PODish in itself
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms on Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:49 pm

    @Mulvy wrote:

    The Williams/Hodgson connection or something else?

    I like to start the year with players I'm terrified of not owning.

    I don't think the price difference between Bateman and Haas is warranted as I see them on the same tier. Slightly under priced due to the injury effected game (average of 61 excluding that game) plus he ended a few games in the centres due to injury

    I think Bateman will end the year as the top averaging second rower and has an incredible ceiling despite only 4 tries last year

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