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    NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 1 - Offseason Edition

    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 on Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:01 pm

    @multiple.scoregasms wrote:Did some basic calculations myself based on 15000 MN and got the following sorted by discount on priced average. Note this does not take into account the standard discount for less than 10 games played(3% per game)


    Kinda did a similar thing with my pre-season analysis but instead using priced average points vs adjusted average points (excluding injuries, interchange appearances for usual starters). It means I have to supplement some players with NSW cup AVG to back up low sample sizes though

    Comes out with similar players excluding the 1 game heroes shown in your analysis. Great analysis
    Ben Marlin
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    Post by Ben Marlin on Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:15 pm

    @Camo123 wrote:

    Kinda did a similar thing with my pre-season analysis but instead using priced average points vs adjusted average points (excluding injuries, interchange appearances for usual starters). It means I have to supplement some players with NSW cup AVG to back up low sample sizes though

    Comes out with similar players excluding the 1 game heroes shown in your analysis. Great analysis
    What’s the difference between your analysis and what multiple scoregasms did?
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 on Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:26 pm

    @Ben Marlin wrote:
    What’s the difference between your analysis and what multiple scoregasms did?

    Basically gone through MTB's site and looked at each team and for the players in my drafted team or watchlist I have:

    Price before adjustment | Adjusted Average (Average in 2019 excluding injury affected/interchange appearances) | Points of Upside

    Then done the same with the adjusted pricing for ownership. Obviously with some players, points of upside are completely unrealistic but still should perform over their price (e.g. Friend and Papenhuyzen)
    RandomSil
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    Post by RandomSil on Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:22 pm

    @Camo123 wrote:
    Random wrote:

    Yes and no, it is always a flip of the coin. You need to offload anyone bleeding cash massively, particularly those who are in your starting 17 as the above examples. However there are examples of Cashcow's who get dropped early, I remember I offloaded Sivo before he had some stellar performances after that and I regretted trading him out due to how well he was scoring.

    But I do believe you have to max trade the first 3 weeks. It is so unlikely you hit on your 21 picks, and you want to get on any potential cashcows that are going huge early. If you only 1 trade those weeks, you essentially put yourself behind by 3 decent picks. As everyone jumps on guys making a bucketload of cash.

    I feel like picking cash cows is easier this year than last year. This year it looks like Su’a, Best and B Brailey will be prime options with likely guaranteed spots while last year players like Bateman and Bird had question marks around them

    Though mid rangers look harder to pick this year

    I feel like we say that every year. I mean last year we also had Nikora, Capewell (Did well early IIRC) and a bunch of other guys that popped up like Haas.
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 on Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:42 pm

    Random wrote:

    I feel like we say that every year. I mean last year we also had Nikora, Capewell (Did well early IIRC) and a bunch of other guys that popped up like Haas.

    I was more meaning this year it looks like quantity of cash cows has probably gone down but quality has probably gone up. Last year there was all the rookie wingers that people had to pick between and it led to some people trading out Sivo way too early (myself included but it was for Haas so still clearly benefitted)

    In same way it looks like there are loads of mid ranger options to pick which means it’s harder to get the right options. Last year players like Murray were mid range and now they’re priced as guns (happens every year though)
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz on Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:01 pm

    @Camo123 wrote:

    I was more meaning this year it looks like quantity of cash cows has probably gone down but quality has probably gone up. Last year there was all the rookie wingers that people had to pick between and it led to some people trading out Sivo way too early (myself included but it was for Haas so still clearly benefitted)

    In same way it looks like there are loads of mid ranger options to pick which means it’s harder to get the right options. Last year players like Murray were mid range and now they’re priced as guns (happens every year though)

    Murray could be a good option this year, there was discussion of him getting 80 minutes last season, this year it is a real possibility with missing depth in their forwards.
    my tv broke
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    Post by my tv broke on Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:25 pm

    I'd be surprised if Murray plays 80. Bennett rarely does that with his lock, and Cook will always be an 80 min man so not using two changes on hooker.
    Boozecluez
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    Post by Boozecluez on Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:34 pm

    Happy new year everyone

    Not long until the season starts up again Smile
    Slowly winding up the footy brain after the off season break, looks like the usual early bird faces here again this year
    StormTrooper96
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    Post by StormTrooper96 on Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:36 pm

    @Boozecluez wrote:Happy new year everyone

    Not long until the season starts up again Smile
    Slowly winding up the footy brain after the off season break, looks like the usual early bird faces here again this year
    Happy New Year Booze! Hope to see you around this neck of the woods more often this year! Look forward to all your wisdom.
    code delta
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    Post by code delta on Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:48 pm

    @mattnz wrote:
    He will get dual, buy him as a fullback that you can play in your centres

    Why will he be dual? Only ever played CTR.
    You over estimate fanhub.
    Ben Marlin
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    Post by Ben Marlin on Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:58 pm

    @code delta wrote:

    Why will he be dual? Only ever played CTR.
    You over estimate fanhub.
    Players sometimes get dual status even without having played the position - Ponga at the start of last year is a perfect example
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz on Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:11 pm

    @code delta wrote:

    Why will he be dual? Only ever played CTR.
    You over estimate fanhub.

    If he starts round 1 at fullback he will get dual
    13CokeHeads
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    Post by 13CokeHeads on Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:11 pm

    @my tv broke wrote:I'd be surprised if Murray plays 80. Bennett rarely does that with his lock, and Cook will always be an 80 min man so not using two changes on hooker.

    I doubt Sua will play 80 mins either
    Ben Marlin
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    Post by Ben Marlin on Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:18 pm

    @13CokeHeads wrote:

    I doubt Sua will play 80 mins either
    What do you (and others) think the breakdown of minutes will roughly be in the Souths pack?
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 on Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:22 am

    @13CokeHeads wrote:

    I doubt Sua will play 80 mins either

    Surely they’re going to have to have high min 2RFs. They’ve lost Surgess, Gurgess, Britt, Sutton since last season so their bench options aren’t too great (and will probably include Doueihi as utility if Latrell signs)
    Rippin and Tearin
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:32 am

    Who was the legendary poster that provided their estimated forward pack minutes breakdowns last year? would be great to see that again.
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms on Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:35 am

    @Ben Marlin wrote:
    What do you (and others) think the breakdown of minutes will roughly be in the Souths pack?

    Assuming they get Arrow and Latrell released I see the pack like this

    8.Arrow - 50
    9.Cook - 80
    10.Knight - 45
    11.Su'a - 65
    12.Lowe - 80
    13.Murray - 60
    14.Doueihi - Injury cover for backs won't take forward minutes
    15.Turgess - 30
    16.Tatola - 40
    17.Nicholls - 30

    In terms of the rotation:
    - Murray sticks with what was working last year rotation wise. I expect he will also move a bit wider in his second stint to allow Arrow at lock and an extra prop on the field. This is where Su'a gets the 15 minute break.
    - Tatola had a pretty good season last year and will be first rotation off the bench. Depending on opponent he may even start ahead of Knight at times due to body shape
    - In the modern NRL you need to get close to 80 minutes from either your two second rowers or one second rower and your hooker. Cook gives the luxury of a spare interchange which gives Su'a a breather. Lowe is an origin quality edge forward entering his prime


    From a fantasy point of view this leaves Lowe as the most interesting option. Priced at 31.1, Lowe averaged 42 as a starting second rower last year as well as 40+ averages in 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017

    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms on Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:43 am

    @Camo123 wrote:

    Surely they’re going to have to have high min 2RFs. They’ve lost Surgess, Gurgess, Britt, Sutton since last season so their bench options aren’t too great (and will probably include Doueihi as utility if Latrell signs)

    With the interchange structure you need to either have 2x 80 minute second rowers OR 1x 80 minute second rower and 1x 80 minute hooker

    You need atleast 6 interchanges for the middle forwards (starting props/locks off then back on), leaving one for injuries (only two clubs consistently made their final interchange before the 70th minute) and one to sub off either your second rower or hooker. If you want to get your second rower or hooker back on it means one of your bench middles have to be capable of finishing the game (Brandon Smith does this from time to time)

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    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 on Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:59 am

    I agree with what you have if Arrow goes to Souths, but I think Holbrook will do all he can to keep him at Titans this year. He doesn't look like a stupid coach like Brennan and should know that trading Arrow for either no-one or Gagai is an awful trade

    Both will be great options, with Lowe looking like he has the greater capability for 80 mins but then would likely play Origin and miss the bye round if we are intent on keeping them that long if scoring well. Lowe looks more reliable while Su'a looks like boom/bust player. I guess it'll depend on overall structure of own fantasy team and actual team lists. Maybe it's a case of why not both
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms on Sat Jan 11, 2020 8:05 am

    @Camo123 wrote:I agree with what you have if Arrow goes to Souths, but I think Holbrook will do all he can to keep him at Titans this year. He doesn't look like a stupid coach like Brennan and should know that trading Arrow for either no-one or Gagai is an awful trade

    Both will be great options, with Lowe looking like he has the greater capability for 80 mins but then would likely play Origin and miss the bye round if we are intent on keeping them that long if scoring well. Lowe looks more reliable while Su'a looks like boom/bust player. I guess it'll depend on overall structure of own fantasy team and actual team lists. Maybe it's a case of why not both

    Su'a is definitely on my consideration list with Lowe being close to locked in being 10 points under valued

    Just decided to have a look at Su'a and didn't realise how low priced he is. Priced at 24, averaged 26 last year and 35 when starting second row. Stats were similar at the Broncos with mid 30's average as a starter

    Su'a looks like he will be the perfect 17/18th man to start the season

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