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    NRL Fantasy 2019 part 73

    WT2K
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    Post by WT2K on Fri Jul 26, 2019 1:16 pm

    @Weiland wrote:Before I found this place, I thought I was pretty fanatical about Fantasy. I now realize I am barely part-time.

    I've been pushed to casual not even part-time
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    Post by Chewie on Fri Jul 26, 2019 1:16 pm

    Yeah Cook needs to falter tonight... just so my Teddy captaincy pick has maximum impact.
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    Post by wolfking on Fri Jul 26, 2019 1:19 pm

    @Chewie wrote:Yeah Cook needs to falter tonight... just so my Teddy captaincy pick has maximum impact.

    I'm apologizing to you in advance Chewie.
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    Post by Chewie on Fri Jul 26, 2019 1:20 pm

    @WT2K wrote:

    I've been pushed to casual not even part-time
    Haha I've spend a lot less time on the spreadsheets this season than previous. And doing much better in the rankings... go figure
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    Post by Chewie on Fri Jul 26, 2019 1:21 pm

    @wolfking wrote:

    I'm apologizing to you in advance Chewie.
    No need. I take full responsibility for my own decisions. 
    (Teddy better get a bannner)
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    Post by Chewie on Fri Jul 26, 2019 1:22 pm

    Also spreadsheets, stats, and analysis Page 51 party coming up
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    Post by Verbal Kint on Fri Jul 26, 2019 1:30 pm

    @L-Jimmy wrote:I posted this in the Captain's poll thread, and am x-posting here .... because it took a while to write.  cheer

    @Ben Marlin @Rippin and Tearin
    -----------



    Sure, happy to help! I'll try and update this during the day, between meetings. This here is a helpful guide from a good source: https://eml.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/Econometrics%20Jan%202018.pdf

    Ok, so this is going to be a very short discussion on regression.

    You are interested understanding the relationship between a set of observations, and then predicting an outcome.

    Each observation consists of a set of variables, which you seem to inherently understand well - i.e. Dude[z] played Minutes[x] against Team[y] in Position[p] in Round[r] with HIAtime[h] ScoringPoints[s]

    Another way of saying this is that you have a model of what determines a player's scoring:
    S = z + x + y + p + r + h

    But that only works for one dude in one game, and it doesn't make any sense even then - because if we give positions a number between 1-17, then the model above says that reserves (14-17) will score higher. So we need to weight these things - in game t we have capital letter weights:

    S(t) = D(z) + M(x) + T(y) + P(p) + R(r) + H(h)

    but these guesses aren't perfectly correct - because sometimes a Dude will be tired, or really motivated, or have an undisclosed niggle, or play for Des Hasler. We have errors in the model:

    S(t) = D(z) + M(x) + T(y) + P(p) + R(r) + H(h) + e(t)

    So, if Cook scores 65 against the Dragons with no HIA, in hooker, for 80 minutes, in Round 19:

    65 = D(Cookie, or player number 71 [we have to give a number]) + M(80) + T(14 [a number for Dragons]) + P(9) + R(18) + H(0) + e

    The next trick is to figure out how big those capital letter weights need to be. We do this, often, by putting all the observations we have into a matrix, and minimising the squared errors in guesses: OLS.

    Now, on to your question:
    1) the more observations we have, the better our understanding of each Weighted letter will be
    1a) this means that a calculation including all available games from Cook, Farah, Teddy, Wighton and BS9 will likely be more informative than just Cook - because we learn more about each Weighted letter with each observation.
    2) We also need to think about how many explanatory poitns (eg H, P, M) we should use, as too many makes the calculation meaningless, and too few misses important stuff. The balancing line is a matter of art and science.

    Happy to discuss more, but the Romer link is a good place to start. If you're really keen, there's a good uni near you, or lots of great free stuff online (MITx etc).

    Cheers, and happy econometrics!

    .....

    Fap

    I do this in my head tbh
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie on Fri Jul 26, 2019 1:33 pm

    This Ben Marlin guy...:
    NRL Fantasy 2019 part 73 - Page 50 Tenor
    StormTrooper96
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    Post by StormTrooper96 on Fri Jul 26, 2019 1:34 pm

    ST's Friday Night Multi:
    Knights 13+
    Ponga Anytime Tryscorer
    Rabbitohs 13+
    Burns Anytime Tryscorer
    Magpies 1-39

    $10 @ $85.80 (boosted to $107 by Ladbrokes Boost) = $1,070.00 return.
    wolfking
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    Post by wolfking on Fri Jul 26, 2019 1:39 pm

    @Chewie wrote:
    No need. I take full responsibility for my own decisions. 
    (Teddy better get a bannner)

    I'm expecting fantasy records to be destroyed on Sunday. He owes me a double banner.
    StormTrooper96
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    Post by StormTrooper96 on Fri Jul 26, 2019 1:47 pm

    @MilfordTheMagician wrote:Widdop back along with Hunt they should be better this week, one of the reasons I didn't captain Cook.

    I feel Widdop after a big shoulder reco will be a bit soft in contact, Norman playing out of position, a rookie winger I think Rabbits fly tonight.
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    Post by Chewie on Fri Jul 26, 2019 1:53 pm

    @wolfking wrote:

    I'm expecting fantasy records to be destroyed on Sunday.  He owes me a double banner.
    Yes, a score of 150+ would be sweet
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    Post by Teeth Eater on Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:05 pm

    @Mulvy wrote:

    Haha, yeah I'm in that league, hadn't even noticed. I think that's SI's league. I finished first (just saying Very Happy ) and yep it seems I have the week off. Are you Parrageoffa eels?

    Sorry for late reply, but yes, this is I.
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog on Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:06 pm

    A
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog on Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:06 pm

    N
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog on Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:07 pm

    A
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog on Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:07 pm

    L
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    Post by SI on Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:08 pm

    @MilfordTheMagician wrote:
    @my tv broke wrote:Carty Party benched. Sam stone to start left edge - Tony webeck NRL.COM

    You know you're shit when you get benched for Sam Stone.

    I'm still having to play him in my 17 Embarassed
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog on Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:08 pm

    E
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog on Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:09 pm

    @SI wrote:

    I'm still having to play him in my 17 Embarassed
    God damn SI

      Current date/time is Mon Dec 09, 2019 6:44 am