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    NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 37

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    Welshy
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    Re: NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 37

    Post by Welshy on Wed May 02, 2018 10:17 pm

    @Onthebeatpete wrote:

    Yeah, all good thanks mate, I remember having him last year or the year before and he is injury prone lol. Thanks for your advice :-)
    I got him mind  Embarassed
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    Milchcow
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    Re: NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 37

    Post by Milchcow on Wed May 02, 2018 10:22 pm

    @Jstevens269 wrote:Bump: Being in Europe means I sometimes have limited time to take advantage of your advice. I'd love to get a couple of ideas before my Ozzie mates go to sleep

    Hey all

    I found this forum before the start of this season and have been a lurker ever since. With the help of the forum, I'm currently sitting at 120 overall.

    Little about me...I'm an American that lives in Portugal but spent a summer down under and fell in love w/ NRL.

    I hope to begin contributing to the forum, as much as an American can. Haha. I'd appreciate a little advice for this week if anyone would be so willing

    (C)ook
    Fifi Kikau
    RFM Arrow Murray
    BBQ DCE
    Hiku Isaako
    Teddy Ponga Thompson

    Griffin
    Cam
    Rein
    NBrown

    Su'a
    JMK
    Sorenson
    Dugan

    Option A: Dugan>Walker/Ramien & Brown>Lolo
    Option B: Dugan>Walker/Ramien, next week Brown>Surgess
    Option C: Nothing this week
    Option D: Any other option

    Thanks all!

    Edit: 65 ITB & 23 trades left

    Hey and welcome.

    Issues with your team are that Hiku and Isaako aren't an ideal centre pairing, so upgrading one of them (probably through Dugan with the other going to EMG) could be the way to go.

    Can you afford a better center than Walker/Ramien, I'm not sure they are keepers and i think you'll want to trade them out again later (not that anyone other than Latrell and Aitken look like solid keepers though) And if you are going to trade someone out later anyway, I'd be more tempted to take a punt on Capewell than Walker/Ramien and hoe he can get a reasonable run as a starter. Bit of a risk though

    NBrown out might be a move as well with his return continually pushed back.

    Other than that no need to play with your team just for the sake of it.
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    KiwiOilBoiler

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    Re: NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 37

    Post by KiwiOilBoiler on Wed May 02, 2018 10:29 pm

    @BBowler wrote:

    Ive never thought about it like that but probably relative to BE vs expected total value when topped out (which is a common consideration)

    For a keeper i guess you want the season average to be a Minimum of X. Then work out if the extra potential points by one keeper is worth the extra youd have to pay for them vs $$ that could be used to strengthen other spots.

    As long as your calculations align with the above objective then they make sense.


    Cheers for your thoughts BBowler and Ripn n Tearin, sorry about late reply, because Shiftwork.
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    Rapture_NRL

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    Re: NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 37

    Post by Rapture_NRL on Wed May 02, 2018 10:31 pm

    @Onthebeatpete wrote:

    Thanks mate, I don’t think I could afford Walker and Mitchell together, maybe Marsters instead?
    Do you like the S. Johnson option instead? I can then get Haas as well or another cash cow?

    I think if you're stretching at the moment, probably not the best idea to go SJ. Mitchell I think is a safe bet at Centre because of his kicking but otherwise he's annoying because he looks lazy. I'm a fan of Ramien ($457k) as a value Centre, not quite keeper (25, 27, 32, 46 two tries, 48). Seems to be scoring around that 30-35 mark which is better than any centre cheaper and a floor of 25 is a ceiling-ish for Isaako. I'm not keen on Haas atm until I see how his minutes go. If he can nab 30-40 minutes he's straight in, but if he stays around 20, you're only getting 20-27 points out of him. Other cash out options that I rate higher would be Cogger (last score was purely base), Fonua (BE 1, TBs, OLs, 130-150MG), and perhaps TMM (risky). That should give you better cash to pick someone up. As much as I hate Manly, DCE (high BE) is a smidge under 800k but his floor is 47 (without the 15 game). SJ is 863k but should drop 15-20k soon so will be easier to get. Matterson is a solid option and gives you flexibility around halves. But if you're looking around A Rey's range, I prefer C Walker, expecially when playing alongside A Rey (caveat he's a bit lazy like Latrell).

    Hope that helps.
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    Pain

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    Re: NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 37

    Post by Pain on Wed May 02, 2018 10:33 pm

    @Jstevens269 wrote:Hey all

    I found this forum before the start of this season and have been a lurker ever since. With the help of the forum, I'm currently sitting at 120 overall.

    Little about me...I'm an American that lives in Portugal but spent a summer down under and fell in love w/ NRL.

    I hope to begin contributing to the forum, as much as an American can. Haha. I'd appreciate a little advice for this week if anyone would be so willing

    (C)ook
    Fifi Kikau
    RFM Arrow Murray
    BBQ DCE
    Hiku Isaako
    Teddy Ponga Thompson

    Griffin
    Cam
    Rein
    NBrown

    Su'a
    JMK
    Sorenson
    Dugan

    Option A: Dugan>Walker/Ramien & Brown>Lolo
    Option B: Dugan>Walker/Ramien, next week Brown>Surgess
    Option C: Nothing this week
    Option D: Any other option

    Thanks all!

    Edit: 65 ITB & 23 trades left

    Fuck sorry mate. Down voted by accident.

    Anyway Welcome.
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    code delta

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    Re: NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 37

    Post by code delta on Wed May 02, 2018 10:43 pm

    Had to many drinks and sick of playing with my CTRs so I'll miss toinghts party.


    Good night.
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    Onthebeatpete

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    Re: NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 37

    Post by Onthebeatpete on Wed May 02, 2018 10:47 pm

    @Rapture_NRL wrote:

    I think if you're stretching at the moment, probably not the best idea to go SJ. Mitchell I think is a safe bet at Centre because of his kicking but otherwise he's annoying because he looks lazy. I'm a fan of Ramien ($457k) as a value Centre, not quite keeper (25, 27, 32, 46 two tries, 48). Seems to be scoring around that 30-35 mark which is better than any centre cheaper and a floor of 25 is a ceiling-ish for Isaako. I'm not keen on Haas atm until I see how his minutes go. If he can nab 30-40 minutes he's straight in, but if he stays around 20, you're only getting 20-27 points out of him. Other cash out options that I rate higher would be Cogger (last score was purely base), Fonua (BE 1, TBs, OLs, 130-150MG), and perhaps TMM (risky). That should give you better cash to pick someone up. As much as I hate Manly, DCE (high BE) is a smidge under 800k but his floor is 47 (without the 15 game). SJ is 863k but should drop 15-20k soon so will be easier to get. Matterson is a solid option and gives you flexibility around halves. But if you're looking around A Rey's range, I prefer C Walker, expecially when playing alongside A Rey (caveat he's a bit lazy like Latrell).

    Hope that helps.

    Thanks mate, helped a lot. I can do Matterson and Cogger, just means I have to use G. Jennings in my centres which is ok for now I guess. I have noticed Mitchell is a bit lazy, doesn’t really go in looking for work.
    If I do Matterson and Cogger, my team would look like;

    Cook
    Fifita, Vaughan
    Arrow, Trbojevic, Kikau
    Matterson, Cherry-Evans
    Aitken, Jennings
    Tedesco, Ponga, Mbye

    Fisher-Harris, Cogger, Sorensen, Leota

    Otherwise the Walker/Reynolds and Mitchell/Marsters trade allows me to get a decent centre to partner Aitken but by bench is weaker..

    Cook
    Fifita, Vaughan
    Arrow, Trbojevic, Kikau
    Reynolds/Walker, Cherry-Evans
    Aitken, Mitchell/Marsters
    Tedesco, Ponga, Mbye

    Fisher-Harris, Sorensen, Jennings, Leota

    Another option is to get T. Trbojevic, leave Mbye at half and get a good centre
    (My bench is shithouse I know) hahaha
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    BBowler

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    Re: NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 37

    Post by BBowler on Wed May 02, 2018 10:50 pm

    @danseels1985 wrote:I have like 4K bank and desperately need to raise funds but I'm torn between a couple of options as I don't know whether to create a bit of cash buildup or strengthen right away

    Option A: Trade Thompson and Gosiewski to Haas and Cogger to free up 360k cash
    Option B: Trade Thompson and Gosiewski to Cogger and Marsters which leaves about 30k
    Option C: Trade Thompson and Gosiewski to Norman and Haas and say screw the cash

    Thoughts please guys

    B is the ultimate - Cash Coggar & centre-Piece Marsters
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    Pain

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    Re: NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 37

    Post by Pain on Wed May 02, 2018 10:56 pm

    @Welshy wrote:
    I got him mind  Embarassed

    I'm enjoying that ride. Paired with Matterson it feels balanced.
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    BBowler

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    Re: NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 37

    Post by BBowler on Wed May 02, 2018 10:58 pm

    @Boozecluez wrote:Would you rather run Matterson in the 2rf with 2 gun halves or run an extra gun forward?

    That is the question I am asking myself right now and wondering if it is worth a gamble on say Hunt (while he is still reasonable)

    Long term would like an insurance plan to cover the halves so that was my thinking now, 2rf is easy to cover but a decent half is expensive and with Johnson/Cleary injury issues it leaves me less than confident.

    So it would be something like Surgess v Hunt $$$ wise as an example.
    I think it's a case of higher floor, lower ceiling with Surgess but tempted by Hunt's base stats now he has found his part in the Dragons, along with the chance of a big score thrown in.

    Is this crazy thinking or am I just being tempted by his vein of form overlooking his high 30/ mid 40 scores every second week?
    End of the day it's his average you are buying and think he tops out around 850k

    Though could go Taumalolo as well this week, which will probably be what happens if I go the safe way haha
    Cleary will be back around Origin time so could pull the trigger on him then I suppose if I want another half, also more time to see how Johnson goes with his groin too.

    currently running Matto in my halves (working out great) but ideally id like two gun halves (SJ, DCE, or Cleary) and Matto on the bench for cover to both 2RF & HLF
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    BBowler

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    Re: NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 37

    Post by BBowler on Wed May 02, 2018 11:01 pm

    @Milchcow wrote:
    My analysis on a few popular trade in targets this week


    Kurt Capewell, $338k (22.5 points)
    5 career starts at 2nd row - scores of 39, 47, 31, 26, 43
    Average as centre is 32 (discounting the 106 in an origin round last year, 40 if you include the 106)
    Job security is a bit iffy - Lewis and Gallen to return, and no guarantees he even stays 2nd row come final team lists with Sorenson relegating him to the bench in round 7 this year
    Being selectable at CTR is obviously a big plus, but the big concern is he might return to a bench role and lose money.


    Jaydn Su'a, $406k (27 points)
    7 career starts in 2nd row, average of 35.8
    Job security pretty good in the medium term (unless Gillett and McGuire emulate McCullough in making miraculous recoveries)
    I see little chance of losing money, but the big question is whether he'll make enough to justify a trade in.
    I think if you got him in a few weeks ago you are laughing, but probably its too late to join the train if you missed out.

    Shaun Lane, $429k (28.5 points)
    10 career starts in the 2nd row, for an average of 42 points, only 2 scores under 35.
    Job security appears safe for the next month or so with Gosiewski having a broken hand.
    Ideally he keeps the spot after Gosiewski's return, but can't be guaranteed. he's at his 3rd club and is yet to string together any real big runs of starts

    Jack Cogger, $282k (19 points)
    4 starts in the halves, scores of 7, 39, 22, 33
    Paired with Connor Watson, looks to be the chief general play kicker, which should see him avoid truly terrible scores.
    The 33 he scored last week included literally no attacking stats - 21 tackles, 76 run meters, 266 kick meters and -8 in negatives were his only stats.
    So a base of low 30s with potential for higher seems like a reasonable score estimate.
    Brock Lamb potentially coming back into the team is the main job security issue.

    Esan Marsters, $574k (38 points)
    Averaging 39 points a game this year, despite not scoring a try.
    Lolohea's return to the Tigers team, should it happen, would see him lose goal kicking  - he is currently getting 5 points a game from goal kicks.
    Last year he averaged 38 points from 11 games at Tigers (5 tries in these games)
    Personally, without reliable goal kicking I feel he falls a bit below keeper status.

    Whats the goalkicking stats Lolohea vs Marsters - any chance he’ll keep the kicking duties?
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    Cap'n Ranta

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    Re: NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 37

    Post by Cap'n Ranta on Wed May 02, 2018 11:15 pm

    @Boozecluez

    2rf used to be the gun part of our squads where you'd stack your bench. Part of that was the positional limits but this year I'm not certain the depth is there at 2nd row.

    Matterson (57.5) and Arrow (58.3) are currently the Top Averaging 2RFs who we are likely playing at Prop and HLF due to the perceived strength at 2RF. I'm going to quickly show why that's statistically incorrect.

    Johnson (58.Cool, DCE (54.9) and Hunt (54.Cool are all averaging more than all gun 2RFs (not named Arrow or Matterson) like:

    JTurbo (54.4) - 3rd ranked 2rf
    Taupau (54) - also FRF
    Lolo (53.5)
    Hess (52.6)
    JDB (52)
    Surgess (51.6) - also FRF
    Brown (51.6)
    Chricton (51.5)

    Add to this that Cleary is averaging 49.7 and discarding his injury affected 22 would be on 63.5 average I think there is a good value in not going too heavy in the gun 2RF position.

    Hypothetical best Team has

    Fifita (52.Cool and Taupau (54)
    Arrow (58.3), Matterson (57.5) and JTurbo (54.5)
    Johnson (58) and DCE (54.5)

    Taupau and the Arrow swap doesn't really matter as they are both Duals and the next best FRF is Burgess as a dual. By the time you get to Alvaro as the next highest pure prop with a 49.4 average you'd be better off adding another 2RF and having Arrow in the FRF but Playng DCE or a healthy Cleary over some of the 2RFs seems to work better (by averages at least).

    Think this is bit of a thinking shift caused by a previously great position losing lusture rather than halves getting better. Guys like Gallen (injured and mins), JDB (stacked pack), Burgess, Chricton, Murray (sharing the load), Mannering (moved away from lock), CP13 (retiring years ago) might not be appreciated yet.

    * Note I gave cleary a bit of a pass and if I did it with Tohu he'd be averaging 55+ so maybe there is more 2rf depth than indicated but its not a huge swing.

    TLDR: Agree with Booze that Matterson is better for your team at 2RF and as an emg half cover than as a starting half.

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    Milchcow
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    Re: NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 37

    Post by Milchcow on Wed May 02, 2018 11:17 pm

    @BBowler wrote:

    Whats the goalkicking stats Lolohea vs Marsters - any chance he’ll keep the kicking duties?

    Never say never, but in 16 games together, Marsters has never kicked a goal with Lolohea on the field.
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    Welshy
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    Re: NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 37

    Post by Welshy on Wed May 02, 2018 11:45 pm

    @Pain wrote:

    I'm enjoying that ride. Paired with Matterson it feels balanced.
    Nice!!
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    SI
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    Re: NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 37

    Post by SI on Thu May 03, 2018 12:03 am

    @Cap'n Ranta wrote:@Boozecluez

    2rf used to be the gun part of our squads where you'd stack your bench. Part of that was the positional limits but this year I'm not certain the depth is there at 2nd row.

    Matterson (57.5) and Arrow (58.3) are currently the Top Averaging 2RFs who we are likely playing at Prop and HLF due to the perceived strength at 2RF. I'm going to quickly show why that's statistically incorrect.

    Johnson (58.Cool, DCE (54.9) and Hunt (54.Cool are all averaging more than all gun 2RFs (not named Arrow or Matterson) like:

    JTurbo (54.4) - 3rd ranked 2rf
    Taupau (54) - also FRF
    Lolo (53.5)
    Hess (52.6)
    JDB (52)
    Surgess (51.6) - also FRF
    Brown  (51.6)
    Chricton (51.5)

    Add to this that Cleary is averaging 49.7 and discarding his injury affected 22 would be on 63.5 average I think there is a good value in not going too heavy in the gun 2RF position.

    Hypothetical best Team has

    Fifita (52.Cool and Taupau (54)
    Arrow (58.3), Matterson (57.5) and JTurbo (54.5)
    Johnson (58) and DCE (54.5)

    Taupau and the Arrow swap doesn't really matter as they are both Duals and the next best FRF is Burgess as a dual. By the time you get to Alvaro as the next highest pure prop with a 49.4 average you'd be better off adding another 2RF and having Arrow in the FRF but Playng DCE or a healthy Cleary over some of the 2RFs seems to work better (by averages at least).

    Think this is  bit of a thinking shift caused by a previously great position losing lusture rather than halves getting better. Guys like Gallen (injured and mins),  JDB (stacked pack), Burgess, Chricton, Murray (sharing the load), Mannering (moved away from lock), CP13 (retiring years ago) might not be appreciated yet.

    * Note I gave cleary a bit of a pass and if I did it with Tohu he'd be averaging 55+ so maybe there is more 2rf depth than indicated but its not a huge swing.

    TLDR: Agree with Booze that Matterson is better for your team at 2RF and as an emg half cover than as a starting half.


    Awesome stuff. Gotta say I would have said run him in the Halves as a throw away line thinking it didn't even require research, obviously I was wrong.
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 37

    Post by Boozecluez on Thu May 03, 2018 12:09 am

    @cap’n Ranta

    Awesome write up and great hearing your views on it
    Just tried to think outside the box a bit and started noticing the subtle shift in scorers
    What you have said has completely nailed it on the head

    Just a matter of choosing the right player haha
    Cleary was/is massively on the radar regardless

    Thanks mate
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    WT Winfield

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    Re: NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 37

    Post by WT Winfield on Thu May 03, 2018 2:56 am

    @Klemhammer wrote:Is it time to trade in teddy? Thompson>Tedesco

    That trade's crossed my mind since my H2H finals end Rd 11, but if playing for total points I don't think it's the best use of resources.

    Teddy won't play Rd 13 due to origin, whereas Thompson will.

    Bumping Teddy up to a 50 average for 4 of the next 5 weeks, he scores 200 points.

    Downgrading Thompson to a 40 average for the next 5 weeks, he scores 200 points.

    Bringing in Teddy now will cost you $228k and a trade for probably the same points over the next 5 weeks.

    Teddy's currently priced at a 50 average, so shouldn't change much in price, whereas Thompson could make another 77k at a 40 avg.

    Jstevens269

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    Re: NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 37

    Post by Jstevens269 on Thu May 03, 2018 3:48 am

    @Milchcow wrote:

    Hey and welcome.

    Issues with your team are that Hiku and Isaako aren't an ideal centre pairing, so upgrading one of them (probably through Dugan with the other going to EMG) could be the way to go.

    Can you afford a better center than Walker/Ramien, I'm not sure they are keepers and i think you'll want to trade them out again later (not that anyone other than Latrell and Aitken look like solid keepers though) And if you are going to trade someone out later anyway, I'd be more tempted to take a punt on Capewell than Walker/Ramien and hoe he can get a reasonable run as a starter. Bit of a risk though

    NBrown out might be a move as well with his return continually pushed back.

    Other than that no need to play with your team just for the sake of it.

    Thanks for the advice. I haven't wanted to fiddle much with my centers because it's such a finicky position, but I agree that it would be best to get a keeper in. If I sell Dugan, I can have my pick of keepers. Now to decide... I think NBrown can wait for next week
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    WT Winfield

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    Re: NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 37

    Post by WT Winfield on Thu May 03, 2018 5:17 am

    I had a brainfade for a moment and thought all 3 origins were standalone weekends this year for some reason, giving those picked the option to play the week before if not on a bye.

    Only Game II is standalone though and I and III still on Wednesday night, so yeah no chance Teddy plays Rd 13 on Sunday and backs up Wed for origin.

    Deleted my post causing confusion if anyone noticed it at this hour Laughing
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    Liverpool_Bulldog

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    Re: NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 37

    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog on Thu May 03, 2018 5:30 am

    Now I want BHunt, and move Matterson to 2RF

    The you see a former gun at 621k in ARey, oh man that is cheap.

      Current date/time is Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:06 pm