2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 31

Honeysett wrote:

Sounds like he meets the requirements to be captain of the joint.

It wouldn't surprise me since we signed Roberts and Lodge. Maybe Bennett sees him as our future halfback

Is bringing in Gos and Sua overkill?
Will leave me 600k

What are you expecting from Su'a? Prior to his try last week he was averaging 19 points from the bench.
If he goes back to that he'll make you $50k profit.

Needs to be starting before you would consider him.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Is bringing in Gos and Sua overkill?
Will leave me 600k

Will you be playing any of them weekly? Potentially in bye rounds they could only net 30-44 points each. 4 trades to get them back out as I don't imagine they will be keepers. Make between 200-300k roughly? (haven't done the exact math, sure someone has). Flavour of the week currently and 2 of the best current cash outs but I feel there will be better cows to come that will be basement price, make more and probably score more in bye rounds personally. I think I'm personally going to leave them both. Do not feel scared of not having them. Playing the game in fear tends to work for me most of the time

Milchcow wrote:
What are you expecting from Su'a? Prior to his try last week he was averaging 19 points from the bench.
If he goes back to that he'll make you $50k profit.

Needs to be starting before you would consider him.

One of these situations where stats don't tell the whole story. The try made up a decent amount of his points but he still had a cracking game without the try. Can conservatively say he got 3 tbs, try and lb from one run. Without the try he still scored 39 points in 49 minutes and looked very dangerous with ball in hand. Tackle numbers aren't great but he looks like a chance to offload or bust tackles with every touch. His late footwork at the line got him plenty of opportunities on the inside shoulder of weak defenders. Not expecting monster scores going forward but think he can average 30+ while Gillett is out.

Milchcow wrote:
What are you expecting from Su'a? Prior to his try last week he was averaging 19 points from the bench.
If he goes back to that he'll make you $50k profit.

Needs to be starting before you would consider him.

Oh yes of course if he is starting. Would be nice for TLT to throw up a viable rd13 cheapie

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

One of these situations where stats don't tell the whole story. The try made up a decent amount of his points but he still had a cracking game without the try. Can conservatively say he got 3 tbs, try and lb from one run. Without the try he still scored 39 points in 49 minutes and looked very dangerous with ball in hand. Tackle numbers aren't great but he looks like a chance to offload or bust tackles with every touch. His late footwork at the line got him plenty of opportunities on the inside shoulder of weak defenders. Not expecting monster scores going forward but think he can average 30+ while Gillett is out.

Sure he can pump out a big score. But over past couple of years, he's had a lot more bench scores under 30 than over it.
Too much of a risk for me with uncertain bench minutes.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:

Oh yes of course if he is starting. Would be nice for TLT to throw up a viable rd13 cheapie

Today's TLT won't give a reliable cheapie for 2 months from now. Too much time for things to change in between.

wolfking wrote:If Sua gets the 80 minute second row gig, he's probably worth the pickup, if he's still on the bench then I think I'll pass. But then again, look what happened with Kikau.

I think either way starting or off the bench he isn't going to be a regular 80 minute player. 60 odd minutes should be his range. If he plays the last 60 it costs 1 interchange. If he plays first 30 and last 30 it costs 2 interchange.

Random wrote:

True, giving him some responsibility and under Bennett with the Broncos culture would set him back on track.

Rochow to Sua
LCroker to Scott
174K itb
Thoughts?

Makes my team look really good
CS9
Kikau Arrow
Murray RFM Jurbo
DCE Jacks
Scott Mitchell
Turbo Ponga Thompson

Cook Sua TPJ JFH
Havili Isaako Kennar Katoa

174k ITB

Gives me some money itb to cash out another cow and upgrade someone like TPJ to a gun

Milchcow wrote:

Today's TLT won't give a reliable cheapie for 2 months from now. Too much time for things to change in between.

Oh of course. Feels like it's just around the corner.

Mearcats wrote:I also don't think Hiku will lose his spot, let's call that a "bold prediction" from Cap'n Ranta. My stuff was only the bold stuff.

Haha. Lets also hope Wayne does order his forwards for fantasy impact too. Some of them I struggled to come up with legitimate reasons so went pretty flippant As a bit of a follow up exercise I've ordered them in the order I would trade them out pre TLT with some tiers.

Guys who are peaked and I see scoring mediocre
1. Griffin - 572k - I'm assuming Levi is still a part of the team in which case he's a sell now. If Levi is out I'd drop him down to between Rochow and TPJ.
2. Lodge - 521k -  Peaked with mediocre scoring potential

Guys who need a big game to get their $s rolling (basically in order of faith)
3. Inglis - 436k - Gives you the most cash on a guy who looks super average
4. Doueihi - 383k - Next on the money list unless you have the to risk him as a DNP every week (which isn't that helpful either)
5. Croker - 329k - Priced for what he's done. A big game will come but he's a plodder till then. I'm not convinced he has a 50+ score in him.......
6. Kennar - 392k - Priced for what he's done. A big game will come but he's a plodder till then. More convinced he will go big than Croker

Guys who may have some upside (chance at 40+ points per week)
7. Rochow - 519k - Stalled for now but I project about 50-70k of upside. Will hold price at worst
8. TPJ - 515k - Stalled for now but I project about 50-70k of upside. Will hold price at worst. Slightly less base but way more attacking potential than Rochow.

Sell at your leisure
9. Dufty - 624k - He's behind Ponga (54.8 ), TTurbo (52), Edwards (47), Tedesco (46.3), Walker (45.8 ) and Mbye (45.7). He averages 43.5 (same as RTS) and isn't a DPP. Not a keeper and should be sold at his peak. Will rapidly move up this list in the coming weeks.
10. Thompson - 516k - Same as Dufty but could be viewed as a cut price keeper till rd 13 with an average similar to Dufty (41). More likely to hold his value than Dufty and less upgrade dollars so behind Dufty. Could have another big game for a bit more cash too
11. Hiku - 475k - CTR keeper until the rest of your team is set and forget. Averages about what his price suggests (30-35)

Some of this depends on team balance which I can't cover in a broad list like this. Think this is the order most will sell in so a POD trade out (totally a thing that exists) might be further down the list.

Edit: Tried to remove sunnies from my averages

StormTrooper96 wrote:Rochow to Sua
LCroker to Scott
174K itb
Thoughts?

Makes my team look really good
CS9
Kikau Arrow
Murray RFM Jurbo
DCE Jacks
Scott Mitchell
Turbo Ponga Thompson

Cook Sua TPJ JFH
Havili Isaako Kennar Katoa

174k ITB

Gives me some money itb to cash out another cow and upgrade someone like TPJ to a gun

- Havili should be in reserves over Sua. I value consistency and don't think Sua will be as dangerous vs the storm (warriors have a few missed tackles in them)
- Scott is a good call this week (MEL vs BNE) but over the next 4 I think Isaako is fine to fill there instead. Set and forget CTRs ahead of any other position is a luxury trade. Scott is 50k more and averages 5 less than Isaako anyway. Sideways until Melbourne is shown to be playing well consistently.
- I'd probably single trade Rochow to Gosie instead. Plays 13 with similar potential and $s unless you are certain where the broncos minutes are with Sua getting 40+.

Some fallen players have some juicy prices and will be even more over the coming weeks. What do we need to see from these guys to consider them trade ins?

Gallen down 189k with more to come
Thurston down 93k with more to come
Ethan Lowe down 183k with more to come
Uate down 216k almost at base price
Capewell down 162k close to the bottom
Rapana down 165k probably as low as he gets
TMM down 224k probably needs an injury to be relevant
Mann down 248k probably one injury away
Lamb down 253k with more to come
Peats down 143k with more to come
Vaughan down 102k probably needs an injury
JDB down 107k probably needs an injury
Roberts down 74k Could be at his low point
Cordner down 118k could be close to bottom
Holmes down 199k and on the way back up

filthridden wrote:

I have Lodge, Inglis, Kennar, Dufty and Thompson.

At this stage my plan is to hold all for another week which is tough given I have Murray and Brown on the sidelines.
Lodge is probably top of my list to sell. Dufty is probably the one I am the least worried about. We know he can go big which would skyrocket that average.
A 75 this weekend (unlikely but possible) would have him as third best averaging WFB behind Ponga and TTurbo.
A 60 would have him averaging the same as Walker.

Yeah Dufty is definitely a hold for a few weeks at least which is why hes so low. I used averages but there's more to Dufty than just that for me.

Proiblem for me is that if I give any of Ponga, Turbo, Tedesco or Edwards the attacking stats Dufty has I'd expect a lot better than:

- 3 tries for 81
- 2 tries for 46
- 1 try for 29

Also has
- 41, 28 and 32 in games without tries. (the 28 came with 6 TBs)

Dufty is in the best team with an awesome forward pack. He will have more opportunities but his role in the team will lead to some quiet weeks too. Stuck behind Hunt and Widdop who are dominant playmakers and the dragons have strong finishers (Aitken) outside him. Similar to their forwards there aren't enough points to go round. The others I mentioned are all far more important to their team overall than Dufty is to the dragons.

Ponga has the goalkicking and is a big part of Newcastles offence. TBs are almost a base stat for the guy. Always involved
Turbo - effectively playing as a half (Croker dissapears) and as a dangerous fullback - more potential
Tedesco - Has been super average (fantasy wise) and is still 3rd best WFB....... If it ever clicks at the chooks expect him to kick into another gear.
Edwards - More central to the panthers offense. Turbo lite to me as he can facilitate and is a dangerous runner.
RTS - Not sold personally on RTS but rate him higher than Dufty on sheer size and attacking prowess. Similar player that goes missing some weeks and has dangerous runners like Kata outside him
Mbye - Goalkicking and a getting half playmaking and kick metres while playing fullback. Floor in a full game this season is 40+.

You can definitely hold and hope for a good game short term but what are the odds the dragons continue undefeated this season and outscoring all their opponents by 19 points a game? Not doubting that all these guys will have another big game at some point but the script has been mint for Dufty so far compared to all the others and hes still in the 2nd tier? I expect the dragons strong form to continue but just cant see him as a keeper despite the great start.

But its a great play for now and he certainly could have another big week or two soon that keeps the Dufty train going longer. Certainly wouldn't jump off now and who knows. By rd 12 the dragons might be even better ( ) and Dufty could be more integral than he is now.