The Betting Thread

Yeah I know guys, I will admit im not a big hedger, unless one of the options is large odds.
I actually only cashed out today as I thought it would be funny to pass on given I had whinged above.
Previously every cashout I have done has burned me also by making a comeback and getting up etc.
As R&T and Oz have said, would be better to make a 2 legger.

At least you made a profit, well done mate.

Counties up at h/t.

Counties win 29 24
$8 shot (manawatu first score/under 58.5/counties +1.5) came in too for an extra bonus!!
Turning out to be another good week!

Page 51 has been achieved.
Do gamblers party?

Great value there R&T.

Code Delta has made an entrance ! I was thinking myself that the P51 factor has made its way here ! Its P51 !

Mate you're some sort of clairvoyant

Mighty Fishes wrote:Mate you're some sort of clairvoyant

I have to say its been a cracker of a season for me so far.

I just looked back at all my pre-game (H2H/Points start) tips on here and I am 13/17 which is just ridiculous.

I'd usually hope to hit somewhere between 55 to 60% to make a good profit over the season so to be hitting at over 75% would have to make it one of my best ever betting seasons.

Fingers crossed it continues for the remainder of the season (1 more full round + finals).

How did Cant lose that after coming out so strong?

I wasn't able to watch, a game that is so high scoring suggests minds werent on the job though. Bugger!

Honeysett wrote:I haven't got on any of your tips yet RNT but fuck you're quality mate.

The way you go about betting and posting here is quality

Hopefully I can tee you up another big one

Cheers mate, appreciate it! Hopefully I can see the season out strong.

Anytime you wanna throw me another $40 shot I'll take it mate

By the way lads, I didn't get to see last nights game, but anytime a team can go away from home and win you have to give them some props.

Hence, the fact that same team, who are now likely to get a home final, are still paying $4.25 to win the tournament seems crazy to me.

Taranaki to with the Premiership @ $4.25

Bit late on this, 10 min to kick off. I really like Southland +34.5. Wellington has made a ton of changes. South land largely the same as last week when they nearly beat manawatu. The clincher is this means nothing for Wellington in terms of the standings, hence all stars rested.

Jumping back on the Berisha bandwagon this year.

Berisha FGS.

North Harbour today looks good. Despite what I said about teams backing up fro a Wednesday game, North Harbour should buck that trend. They clearly named a team Wednesday with Sunday in mind resting a ton of their top guns. They need to win this one and should have the fire power to do it.

I like them @ $1.55 +1.5, but think anything up to -13.5 @ $3.4 is a good option (anything more will require a decent amount of luck but perhaps worth a shot if you want to take a punt). I'll be spreading my money across NH +1.5 @$1.45, H2H @ $1.55, -3.5 @ $1.87, -7.5 @ $2.3, -13.5 @ $3.4, -18.5 @ $4.8, and -23.5 @$6.75. Obviously much greater weightings toward the safer options to the extent that a NH win will return profit regardless of the rest!

Also I'll have a small punt Auckland today on the basis that Tasman may find it difficult to back up post Wednesday's game.

Auckland have been rubbish this year, with the exception of last week, so I think the prudent thing to do here is to wager small but take the high odds on offer.

small bet on Auckland -3.5 @ $3.5 and Auck -13.5 @ $7

Woof !

Taranaki 13+   tonight lads. And a small wager on -23.5 and -33.6 at $3.4 and $6.5 respectively

EDIT: Sorry guys, busy this week and posted this on the run, watching the game now and I am really liking this bet. I think a live bet on Taranaki, currently @ -15.5 would be solid.

Taranaki cover 13 to take my record to 15/21 this year.

I just had a look at the remaining games of the final round heres my quick thoughts:

Wellington v Northland - this is a stay away game for me with far too much uncertainty. Wellington is the better team, easily the best in their division but this game is largely meaningless for them and Im just not sure what mindset they will be in.

Auckland v Canterbuty - I'd want to see the teams here but again this one seems to be a stay away game. I lean toward Canterbury 13+ at this point as they need to win and win well to have any chance of a home play-off. But the last few weeks have me a bit uneasy about their form. On the other hand Auckland is god awful this year so maybe value in betting against them again.

BOP v Waikato - Again team naming important, but perhaps even more so will be the outcome of the previous match. If Canterbury beat Auckland then Waikato have everything to play for. If Auckland beat Canterbury then Waikato will be relegated before they even play. BOP needs a win to get a semi spot. The odds are even at the moment so I'll be jumping all over BOP if Auckland get the upset over Canterbury, but most likely Canterbury wins in which case I think Waikato is the play.

Otago v Southland Otago with a semi spot on the line and Southland, the worst team in the comp with nothing to play for. Southland showed there heads aren't in it last week when they got thumped by Wellington, I'm gonna get on Otago -21.5.

Counties v Tasman Season is already over for Counties while there's not much on the line for Tasman either (they already have a semi spot locked up and can't move up the ladder to a home semi). This probably suggests stay away but I've been really impressed by Tasman the last few rounds and subject to team naming I probably cap them at around 12.5 favs while the bookies have them at 4.5. Wait for team naming but Tasman -4.5 the likely play.

HB v Manawatu Manawatu will likely be in a position where if they win they are in the playoffs and if they lose they will be out. HB nothing to play for but pride. HB have been better in the second half of the season though so I smell an upset here with Manawatu coming off a short turn around after the highs (and lows) of last nights shield challenge. That being said Im not sure there is any value here so unless team naming through out something big its probably a stay away game for me.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:Taranaki 13+   tonight lads. And a small wager on -23.5 and -33.6 at $3.4 and $6.5 respectively

EDIT: Sorry guys, busy this week and posted this on the run, watching the game now and I am really liking this bet. I think a live bet on Taranaki, currently @ -15.5 would be solid.

Thanks again. Crown don't offer your own line so I put a small one on their +19.5. Spewing I missed the game. Was playing darts and the club had FTA TV on ???

Teams named for Auckland v Canterbury. Canterbury-10.5 the play. All ABs OUT for Auckland while Canterbury get their captain back. Get on now while the TAB are yet to update.

Edit, that line has actually come in so -10.5 on offer now , my bad.