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    Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Tue Apr 03, 2018 4:35 pm

    @Pacey's Best wrote:I'm hoping that Jack Gosiewski is named in Manly's TLT team tonight, hopefully in Curtis Sironen's spot in the backrow. He scored 4 tries, 2 weeks ago against Wentworthville in reserve grade and has a lot of potential. You've also got Winterstein and Lane who could slot in, but he might get a shot. Keep an eye for him.........................

    Yeah mentioned Jack a day or 2 ago, a gun if he gets the minutes
    Looks like he is on the bench but reckon he will break his way into the starting side soon

    Cheers Pacey, good to know you are thinking similar to know I’m on the right path
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    Shanbon

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Shanbon on Tue Apr 03, 2018 8:37 pm

    That team picture had you already made a trade this week?
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Tue Apr 03, 2018 9:10 pm

    @Shanbon wrote:That team picture had you already made a trade this week?

    That’s really weird as I was playing around with trades but selected round 4’s team
    Definitely just the 28 here
    Was able to replicate it, seems to be a glitch where everything else correct but it shows your current trades left. Doesn’t surprise me to be fair
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    Cap'n Ranta

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Cap'n Ranta on Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:38 am

    @Boozecluez wrote:Looking at my team there is a few fixes needed, the rest is pretty solid (Unless people can see other improvements?)

    1) Solid captain option (So looking at Smith being an issue and have lost confidence in captaining him so I will look at my options here.)
    2) Second half (The halves are up and down so need stability there.)
    3) Solid 4th reserve (TPJ is a week or 2 away so he is my fix for the 4th spot so that's ok, but a cheap or mid ranged Manly/Storm player would help here too)

    A couple options throwing around in my head before TLT is bringing Koro in the halves at Smith's expense.
    Would have to rely on Cook for captain and he is a low 50's player unless he scores a try
    Then I would need to bring in another cow/mid ranged forward to fill the bench, so someone like a BSmith/Lane/JFH pending lists  
    So lets say Koro maintains his average of 55, then would want 40 from my new 2rf = 95 points + 100 from Captain Cook = 195

    The other option is going for a new hooker like Mccullough and say he maintains his 65 average, I would need a cheap half so would have to gamble on Maloney
    This would mean I would miss out on a cheap 2rf this week as only having 2 trades, but could get potentially 35 from Maloney and 130 from captain Mccullough = 165 (+ whatever say JMK could score)
    So a lot more risk on the second option but more potential for $$ and part of the points difference made up for by McCullough as captain.

    Third is I could hold onto Smith and hope he returns back to scoring well (On my bench), and trade Carty/Williams out for Maloney/40pt forward for bench
    This fixes 2 spots this week and brings in 2 more earners getting rid of 2 stalled ones.

    It all comes down to long term points and cash potential cash VS short term points and stability
    I made a few tough calls a couple weeks ago to help me out now, If I can do the same now the team will be better off down the track but unsure which way I will go.
    Decisions....


    Any Thoughts?

    I think you have a bunch of good captain options. Macca is good but doesn't play 13. He's also likely at the price I expect him to stay at this season. I don't see it as a good move given the moneyball type trading we were talking about last week. Also Murray should be a good captain option if you don't trust smith for the 2 weeks Surgess is out. Cook and Arrow will provide a solid but not inspiring options and will be good guys to have a look at while Surgess is out.

    As for halves I'd hope Maloney will be a stable enough even with his penalties and MT due to the expected high KM (300+) and that he kicks goals. I'd peg him for a solid 25-30 most weeks with the chance to have another blinder like last week. For 370K I'm happy with that and should make 125k (but will be a nightmare to watch him slip off every tackle).

    I'm not liking the more premium halves as SJ is injured and likely on the way down (definitely a keeper but likely a good money move later). Koro might be an option if you trust his role to continue (unlikely to be picked for Origin but is a chance). I personally see Koro as a 30-50 point player (40 run metres, 35 tackles as base, 20 KM). I don't see him as a keeper as he misses a lot of tackles (17 this season) and his minutes are likely to be around 60 a week. That's not enough for him to be consistent in my eyes and I don't think he has much, if any cash in him at his price.

    For your 4th reserve I'm starting to keep rd 13 in mind. AFB looks the goods and likely has some (~100K) money in him. Other guys like JFH may have more money in him but definitely wont play 13. We still have some time though and TPJ is a great 4th reserve who is hopefully back this week or the next. Also maybe Jack Gosiewski????

    If I were you I'd single trade this week

    1) trade Cartwright to Maloney. Better HLF value with solid scores while Cleary is out (6-10 weeks).

    These trades solve all your issues (if you trust Maloney). Stability in the halves and and cash potential (best of both worlds). If you really wanted to fix your 4th reserve this week

    2) Havili to your pick of the 4th reserve options you like (I'd probably take JFH as its slightly to early to think bye rds). This trade could certainly wait a week while you figure out which one you like and Havili gets his last significant price rise. Personally, TPJ should be back next week at the latest so this is a bit of a luxury trade but if there is a cashie you like then go for it. This would be a gut feel trade.





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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:32 am

    @Cap'n Ranta wrote:

    I think you have a bunch of good captain options. Macca is good but doesn't play 13.  He's also likely at the price I expect him to stay at this season. I don't see it as a good move given the moneyball type trading we were talking about last week. Also Murray should be a good captain option if you don't trust smith for the 2 weeks Surgess is out. Cook and Arrow will provide a solid but not inspiring options and will be good guys to have a look at while Surgess is out.

    As for halves I'd hope Maloney will be a stable enough even with his penalties and MT due to the expected high KM (300+) and that he kicks goals. I'd peg him for a solid 25-30 most weeks with the chance to have another blinder like last week. For 370K I'm happy with that and should make 125k (but will be a nightmare to watch him slip off every tackle).

    I'm not liking the more premium halves as SJ is injured and likely on the way down (definitely a keeper but likely a good money move later). Koro might be an option if you trust his role to continue (unlikely to be picked for Origin but is a chance). I personally see Koro as a 30-50 point player (40 run metres, 35 tackles as base, 20 KM). I don't see him as a keeper as he misses a lot of tackles (17 this season) and his minutes are likely to be around 60 a week. That's not enough for him to be consistent in my eyes and I don't think he has much, if any cash in him at his price.

    For your 4th reserve I'm starting to keep rd 13 in mind. AFB looks the goods and likely has some (~100K) money in him. Other guys like JFH may have more money in him but definitely wont play 13. We still have some time though and TPJ is a great 4th reserve who is hopefully back this week or the next. Also maybe Jack Gosiewski????

    If I were you I'd single trade this week

    1) trade Cartwright to Maloney. Better HLF value with solid scores while Cleary is out (6-10 weeks).

    These trades solve all your issues (if you trust Maloney). Stability in the halves and and cash potential (best of both worlds). If you really wanted to fix your 4th reserve this week

    2) Havili to your pick of the 4th reserve options you like (I'd probably take JFH as its slightly to early to think bye rds). This trade could certainly wait a week while you figure out which one you like and Havili gets his last significant price rise. Personally, TPJ should be back next week at the latest so this is a bit of a luxury trade but if there is a cashie you like then go for it. This would be a gut feel trade.


    Hey Cap'n cheers for your comments
    It's good to see your thoughts on it and there are definitely 2 different camps to this.
    I guess when you initially see holes in your team after the weekend it is far too easy to look to plug those with 'decent' scorers.
    It is a bit of a knee jerk reaction to take the short term fix when with patience you can get the next tier Gun (ie what happened with Dufty bringing him in instead of Thompson) when long term you want RTS or Edwards

    Could argue If i bring in Koro it puts me in a similar situation as well, where there is no large upside in 'value' other than solid points
    Maloney has far bigger risk but also reward and is a pathway to a better half later = Cleary/Johnson.

    It's funny you say Murray as he currently has the (C) on him, should have large work rate with Surgess out
    TPJ should also be back soon and at worst would mean I only have to play one more week of a JMK/Havili/Croker

    I think I have a plan of attack now which takes on some of my original thinking and some of Your/Pacey's suggestions

    Williams out - Maloney in (straight into my starting lineup)
    Cartwright to Gosiewski free's up cash and gives me 321k which will potentially get me a Griffin to McCullough type trade later or an upgrade to a fallen gun
    Think it is only a matter of time before he starts or gets good minutes now

    Also as a backup plan due to when these games play(if he somehow doesn't make the 17) I can either hold the trade or go to JFH too but think it's worth the gamble

    Cheers boys for keeping me on track
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    Cap'n Ranta

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Cap'n Ranta on Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:09 pm

    Love the trade order and thought process. Probably locks you into getting rid of Cartwright with less total options but most trade ins seem to fall in the late games so it works out well.

    Best of luck with the team. Look forward to seeing how your team is tracking in a few more weeks when these moves you are making start to show.
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:59 pm

    Round 5 Trades 175k remaining

    James Maloney priced at 378k predicted 35 points

    Lets have a look at Maloney in his 2016 Premiership form (When Sharks won the comp)
    So kicked plenty of goals, played really well and discounting one game for injury he averaged 35 fantasy points
    Averaged 16 tackles with around 5 missed per game, Averaged 151 Kick metres (Townsend kicked more than this)
    He shared duties with Townsend including kicking but now he is controlling the team should get more points you would think here.

    To start the year he has cut penalties out along with making more tackles so if he keeps this up it would be great
    Coming off a huge score and a negative BE if he can average the same points as 2016 (35) he will top out at 510k which would need approximately 4 weeks
    Prior to this he has even averaged higher so is capable on his day

    Not expecting more than this but believe this is realistic, and a better option than relying on players like JMK/Williams/Croker even with his negatives.





    Andrew McCullough priced at 866k, predicted 60-65 points

    The tackling machine himself and with 80 minutes he is capable of a big score.
    He looks to be taking on more of a leadership role ala CSmith with a look to the future and having Niko/Milford in the halves.
    With the stop start nature of all the penalties then a lot of hitups are taken in the middle and Captain MC is there to milk those sweet points
    Simply put he was always wanted in my team but now it is sooner than later as he isn't getting any cheaper



    Last edited by Boozecluez on Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:55 am; edited 2 times in total
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    Bullbender

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Bullbender on Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:13 pm

    @Boozecluez wrote:Round 5 Trades 321k remaining

    James Maloney priced at 378k predicted 35 points

    Lets have a look at Maloney in his 2016 Premiership form (When Sharks won the comp)
    So kicked plenty of goals, played really well and discounting one game for injury he averaged 35 fantasy points
    Averaged 16 tackles with around 5 missed per game, Averaged 151 Kick metres (Townsend kicked more than this)
    He shared duties with Townsend including kicking but now he is controlling the team should get more points you would think here.

    To start the year he has cut penalties out along with making more tackles so if he keeps this up it would be great
    Coming off a huge score and a negative BE if he can average the same points as 2016 (35) he will top out at 510k which would need approximately 4 weeks
    Prior to this he has even averaged higher so is capable on his day

    Not expecting more than this but believe this is realistic, and a better option than relying on players like JMK/Williams/Croker even with his negatives.





    Jack Gosiewski priced at 257k predicted 20-50 points

    Big kid with a huge future much in the mold of Jake Trbo.
    Due to a couple of season injuries he may be finally getting some good game time this season
    While cheap if he gets a start he is capable of a decent score and have been waiting for him to get his chance.
    One of those players you want in your team in case he gets good minutes early, a good cash out option this week with big future potential

    Long time follower, first time poster. Probably doing the same trades pending Jack G starting? Might hold one trade. The whole game is a gamble, have to take a punt somewhere. Im happy to punt on Maloney at this point of time and you raise some valid points, especially re penalties so far this year. Watch him get penalised 4 times and spend 10 in the bin now..... Dont expect 80's, will be happy with mid 30's which i think is realistic given his role now.
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:45 pm

    @Bullbender wrote:
    Long time follower, first time poster. Probably doing the same trades pending Jack G starting? Might hold one trade. The whole game is a gamble, have to take a punt somewhere. Im happy to punt on Maloney at this point of time and you raise some valid points, especially re penalties so far this year. Watch him get penalised 4 times and spend 10 in the bin now..... Dont expect 80's, will be happy with mid 30's which i think is realistic given his role now.

    Cheers BB, long time no speak. Have seen you round for years, cheers for calling by haha

    Anyways have got home from work and had a chance to catch up on everything.
    With news on Smith's groin strain and not kicking I am going to pull the pin this week and hold a week on Jack G
    I was looking at Andrew McCullough in a week or 2 but now is as good a time as any as he isn't getting any cheaper.

    There is too much uncertainty around Smith now and with other rumours I just want to move on and cut my losses.
    If he gets back to his gun status then can look at him after origin

    If there is one place to splurge on a player then it's your captain, Main reason why Smith started this year in that spot.
    Captain MC gives me that, week in and out
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    Bullbender

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Bullbender on Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:15 pm

    As a non smith owner the more people that trade him out the better Basketball The injury cant be too bad if hes playing through it, no kicking goals loses some points in the interim but the latest is he will kick in general play. If you bought him at the start you bought him as a keeper and you only lose the cash if you sell. I hope that is the first of many low scores but it wont be. My 2c
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:40 pm

    @Bullbender wrote:As a non smith owner the more people that trade him out the better Basketball The injury cant be too bad if hes playing through it, no kicking goals loses some points in the interim but the latest is he will kick in general play. If you bought him at the start you bought him as a keeper and you only lose the cash if you sell. I hope that is the first of many low scores but it wont be. My 2c

    I can agree on the not trading a keeper part but he was brought in for a role that he I have lost faith in him to do, Captain.
    Just watching him play you can see not all is good, regardless of what they say in the press he doesn't have the same involvement.
    He is 35 and like Gallen and a few other older guns are slowing up to see the season out, hit milestones or help transition the team for the future.
    100k isn't a lot in the grand scheme of things, you can't nail all your starting guns to start the year and if it fixes something short/medium turn then so be it.
    Who is to say McCullough doesn't make 100k more and it all balances out, but this isn't a $$ based trade

    So far this year he has averaged (minus goal kicking)

    2018 so far = 39 tackles, 2 MT, 25 RM, 72 KM
    2016/2017 =  40 tackles, 2 MT, 50 RM, 150KM      

    So they look pretty similar but runs/kick metres/all attacking stats are less than half what they normally are
    Now you could say with all the penalties that this has effected him and the Storm being in a slump, but some of the other hookers are going about their business as usual
    Or you could say his involvement and role has been lessened to prolong his career or maybe his drive just isn't there

    I am unsure which camp I am in on this one as well, but how long do you wait to hope he returns back to scoring well and what will those scores look like when he does return to scoring well.

    I just don't know, and I can understand non owners saying don't sell, same reason JDB/Brown/Gallen/Mcinnes/Graham/Leilua etc owners must feel haha, except his name is Smith
    Given I have only had to worry really about 1 fallen gun I can say I have dodged a few bullets, but to be fair I planned it this way but thought it wouldn't be smith.

    It comes down to this, if I keep him and he continues to play poor and say drops a heap more $$ then I won't recover from that. Paying top dollar for a borderline keeper with no trade options.
    If he returns to gun status or close to it, at worst it has cost me 1 trade (to bring back) but I am not gambling on his scores and getting out while I still can.

    I read somewhere that in 47 games that Andrew McCullough plays 80 minutes he averages 61, while priced at 59 he isn't under priced by much but I will quite happily take his 122 points per week

    Have the rest of the night to consider this I think and appreciate the constructive feedback, gets the fantasy juices flowing haha.. Love it

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Guest on Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:12 pm

    If I was you I would hold Smith and use my two trades on Williams and Cartwright.

    But as you say Macca is a solid C so I hope it goes well for you.
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    Rippin and Tearin

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:18 pm

    Im gonna differ from my mentor, mr Bullbender Smile

    I believe Smith is a liability at this stage and is a trade-out. Way too much money to be tied up in someone playing with an injury, not scoring via stat categories he used to score in well (goal kicking and KM in particular), and question marks over attitude, role in the team, career preservation etc.

    BUT, as always its worth prefacing anything I say by re-iterating that this is my 2nd year of fantasy, and I probably get to watch max 2 games per round if that.

    If I held Smith right now Booze, I'd be with you. Trade him out now and be ok with bringing him back if the injury gets sorted and he starts hitting 55s again.
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:24 pm

    dreamers wrote:If I was you I would hold Smith and use my two trades on Williams and Cartwright.

    But as you say Macca is a solid C so I hope it goes well for you.

    Williams is next week if he doesn't pull finger haha
    If the raiders turn it around then he will be involved and one decent score will kickstart his price rises again.

    .....But that is doubtful so he will probably become a new cow next week haha
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:35 pm

    @Rippin and Tearin

    Cheers mate for your comments, I don't think anybody would say they don't want him it's all about what you pay/have paid for him
    Throw in his age, Origin, minor injury, Storm's form, reduced or no kicking etc
    I would love to be proved wrong and it would have cost me 1 trade and worst case I can get him for what it costs me today


    Looking at the next 4 weeks using predictions

    A 39 average from now means he bottoms out at 653k (his previous 3 game average)
    A 45 average from now means he bottoms out at 699k (current average)
    A 50 average from now means he bottoms out at 738k
    A 55 average from now means he bottoms out at 777K
    A 60 average from now means he bottoms out at 815k (Current price)

    For context noone is averaging over 60 points so far this season, McCullough, Jtrbo Johnson and Widdop are all averaging around 58-59 points and they are killing it

    So from the other side of things you can pick him up soon for a reasonable price regardless of how he goes from here.
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Sun Apr 08, 2018 9:51 pm

    Round 5 results









    Last edited by Boozecluez on Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:54 am; edited 3 times in total
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Mon Apr 09, 2018 11:26 am

    Been doing some thinking this morning in relation to cash out's and cows Smile
    Thinking I will roll the dice on Gosiewski this week after taking one to watch him play (hope he can force his way into a bigger role and got good minutes but will be better for it after his debut )
    Would be nice if he was 50k cheaper but we may not get that lucky tomorrow with other options.

    It's more a lack of bottom price cows coming through that makes it fun on deciding when/who to trade.
    Do you wait a week to make completely milk a mid range cow or do you jump onto a better performing one now?
    Part of me wants to keep moving to these mid rangers (with some value remaining) as opposed to fallen guns (At this early stage)
    Think I am a bit early and in another 4-6 weeks around origin it will be a better time if some of my current players don't look like keepers.
    Also it's still pretty early in the season to see if they have bottomed out or if it was a fluke score so more time will help assess things.

    May use more trades and result in not having a lot available for the origin break, but getting the right players now I feel is more important than a few points then.

    I also think due to the lack of bottom price cows coming through at the moment, it almost may make sense to go slightly sideways to get that further cash generation we are missing.
    Which is why the likes of Maloney and JFH have been so popular recently, purely down to these lack of options.
    This means less 'guns' or 'keepers' in my team at the moment while the cash is spread out over more of the squad and allows me to hedge my bets a little.
    Which is partially why I started the year like that too in my forwards and luckily managed to get onto a few good ones early (While reducing misses on underperforming guns).
    Meant I started off a little slow but could pick who I wanted, perhaps should have been more aggressive with some selections but that's hindsight.

    Bit of a change from previous years with the smaller squad sizes, taking risks and trying to keep the team generating value is quite fun.

    Will see what TLT delivers us tomorrow


    Last edited by Boozecluez on Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:56 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:27 pm

    Round 6 Trades 74k Remaining

    Jack Gosiewski priced at 264k, predicted 30-35 points

    Big kid with a huge future much in the mold of a younger Jake Trbo.
    Due to a couple of season injuries he may be finally getting some good game time this season and given the starting jersey after a decent showing last week off the bench on debut.
    One of those players you want in your team in case he gets good minutes early, a good cash out option this week with big future potential



    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    James Fisher Harris priced at 499K, predicted 45-50 points
    Fun player to watch in real life and becoming a bit of a fan with all fans.
    Big motor, tackles hard and has a great work rate on the field.

    In the past he has played more of an impact role off the bench but at lock is where he shines.
    Better late than never and while I would have loved him earlier he still has plenty left in him.
    He currently is up there with the best $$ per point players in the game and at worst is an instant upgrade in my 17 over a few players (Allows me to cull one next week).

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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:31 pm

    This week cashing out Williams who is injured and Croker who without a decent game will lose cash, and who I feel is close to being replaced by Hastings.
    Having reinvested in 1 cow and 1 potential cut price keeper the team is coming along nicely.

    Will look at culling potentially 2 cows next week depending on whats available on the market.
    A lot of my players have a few weeks left max before needing upgrades, Griffin/RFM next on the block though one good score prolongs this.

    The 4 NPR's should all make good coin too for a few weeks, which will help big time and fund some of these upgrades too.



    Captain MC for me again this week :ThumbsUp:

    See what happens eh, any thoughts?
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    Cap'n Ranta

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Cap'n Ranta on Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:03 am

    @Boozecluez wrote:

    Captain MC for me again this week :ThumbsUp:

    See what happens eh, any thoughts?

    With Murray out whats your thoughts there? It doesn't matter to me as he doesn't free up enough cash this week for me but I'm also hoping its only 1-2 weeks (until I get better info). You in the short or long term camp there?

    For you I see Williams with his injury as your priority trade and with - 175k kitty + Williams (335k) gives you JFH (499k) and 11k kitty. If you are set on getting JFH its probably not worth trading Murray this week as I don't see someone in his price range being good value that you cant pickup next week anyway.

    Just a thought, but if you were happy to skip JFH then Murray could free the cash to go Fifita (798k) and Gosiewski (264k) with 121k set aside for further upgrades.

    Depends on how you view Murray I guess. Thoughts?


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