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    Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

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    Liverpool_Bulldog

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog on Thu May 10, 2018 7:40 am

    Yeah thats fair.

    I've chucked somewhat of a lite version over in the main thread.
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Thu May 10, 2018 7:58 pm

    Round 10 Trades 311k remaining

    Andrew Fifita, priced at 834k predicted 55-60 points
    Love the big fella, has had a huge few weeks and have struggled to find the room to get him in
    Sharks are still down on troops so should still see decent minutes, a player that can go large on his day




    Rhyse Martin, priced at 284k, predicted 35-40 points
    Looking at the players out and the structure of their bench he should get 60mins + and make some decent coin.
    I liked his enthusiasm and had a decent WC so with me still needing to find 200k+ to fund more upgrades then worth a gamble on one last cow




    So a couple notes: have opted to trade Arrow to give help give me an upgrade fund over the next few weeks and allow him to get back up to speed.
    Comes down to trading out two injured players as the red dots were starting to mount up and you never know what will happen this weekend
    Secondly I have seen it mentioned that Fifita has a niggle with his knee, so as an insurance policy I have structured my bench and trades that Sorensen will be the trade out.

    With Gallen out I definitely want Fifita but don't want to trade him in this week if he doesn't come onto the field.
    Should something happen and he not make it on the field I can reverse the trade as they both are in the same team.


    Last edited by Boozecluez on Fri May 11, 2018 4:45 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Fri May 11, 2018 4:43 pm

    Have reverted back to my original trade plans and will keep some bank to help for upgrades to cows maxing out.
    Surgess can have a week to stew while I see how the Rabbitohs run their pack
    Will give Maloney one last hurrah against the knights this week as well, will be sad to see him go but my blood pressure will thank me next week.
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Sun May 13, 2018 9:43 pm

    Round 10 results





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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Thu May 17, 2018 7:59 pm

    Round 11 Trades - 141k remaining

    Apisai Koroisau Priced at 659k predicted 50-55 points
    Bit of a roller coaster player but can go big on his day
    With Manly struggling for forwards then he should continue to play 80 and while he can miss a tackle he is a bit of a 'Cut price Cook' where he loves a run
    For his price he seems reasonable value and can cover both hooker/half which is nice too



    __________________________________________________________________________

    Angus Crichton priced at 768k predicted 55-60 points

    Grand Angus is back in good form and finally not running the decoy.
    Plays 80mins and hopefully the first bye, runs a great line so hoping he bags a few meat pies over the next few weeks



    Last edited by Boozecluez on Fri May 18, 2018 7:33 pm; edited 9 times in total
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    Welshy
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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Welshy on Thu May 17, 2018 8:00 pm

    @Boozecluez wrote:Round 11 Trades - 147k remaining

    Apisai Koroisau Priced at 659k predicted 50-55 points
    Bit of a roller coaster player but can go big on his day
    For his price he seems reasonable value and can cover both hooker/half which is nice too



    __________________________________________________________________________

    2nd trade TBC

    I like it mate, for who?
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Thu May 17, 2018 8:04 pm

    @Welshy wrote:
    I like it mate, for who?

    I traded Kikau and kept Maloney for one more week in 18th position
    Have a feeling Maloney will be playing his heart out for an origin spot and Cleary being eased back in
    If RFM doesn't play then I get his score so either way I should be ok

    Need to make some moves and that gave me the biggest flexibility for trades on another gun

    Tossing up between Fitzgibbon,Harris and Crichton so just working it out

    Harris is value, Fitz is a POD and Crichton is underpriced

    James/Surgess could be options too for another FRF gun so will see tomorrow
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    Welshy
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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Welshy on Thu May 17, 2018 8:09 pm

    @Boozecluez wrote:

    I traded Kikau and kept Maloney for one more week in 18th position
    Have a feeling Maloney will be playing his heart out for an origin spot and Cleary being eased back in
    If RFM doesn't play then I get his score so either way I should be ok

    Need to make some moves and that gave me the biggest flexibility for trades on another gun

    Tossing up between Fitzgibbon,Harris and Crichton so just working it out

    Harris is value, Fitz is a POD and Crichton is underpriced

    James/Surgess could be options too for another FRF gun so will see tomorrow
    All good choices mate I like Crichton at his current value
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Thu May 17, 2018 8:16 pm

    @Welshy wrote:
    All good choices mate I like Crichton at his current value

    Cheers mate, have pulled the trigger on him

    Well good luck to you this week buddy, thanks again for your comments
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Sun May 20, 2018 8:58 pm

    Round 11 Results





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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Mon May 21, 2018 7:49 pm

    Pre Origin strategy

    Down to the business end of things and just before Origin 1 the plan is to make 8 trades.
    2 this week, 4 next and 2 the following.
    This will lead me with 6 trades just for injury to ride the season out but will mean I will be 'full strength by the start of round 14.

    So the next post will be to try and work out the 8 trade outs and what sort of cash they will allow me to generate. Who I will keep and look to trade in

    I need 5 keepers essentially to make this work

    1x WFB
    1x FRF
    3x any position but would like one to be DPP FRF/2RF

    If anyone sees anything I may have overlooked, any alarm bell type decisions or possible trade options then please let me know.
    While there is hindsight after round 14, I won't really have any options to fix the team after that so better to know now
    Appreciate the feedback


    Last edited by Boozecluez on Mon May 21, 2018 9:28 pm; edited 3 times in total
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    Welshy
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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Welshy on Mon May 21, 2018 7:54 pm

    @Boozecluez wrote:Pre Origin strategy

    Down to the business end of things and just before Origin 1 the plan is to make 8 trades.
    2 this week, 4 next and 2 the following.
    This will lead me with 6 trades just for injury to ride the season out but will mean I will be 'full strength by the start of round 14.

    So the next post will be to try and work out the 8 trade outs and what sort of cash they will allow me to generate. Who I will keep and look to trade in
    I look forward to your trade ins, I'm trying to figure out my origin strategy

    trying not to get too distracted by needing players to fill certain bye rounds, think i'm going to try and rely on the likes of R17 bye players like RFM/Kikau/JFH to elevate in the rounds 14-17 and hope they stay close to the better options like JTurbo/Harris/Crichton/Taupau/Surgess
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Mon May 21, 2018 8:09 pm

    Trade outs (non keepers)

    James Maloney 626k BE 39
    Mitch Rein 597k BE 53
    Siliva Havili 638k BE 37
    Jeremy Marshall King 449k BE 25
    Jaydn Su'a 506k BE 19
    Raymond Faitala Mariner 695k BE 56
    James Fisher Harris 625k BE 40
    Jack Gosiewski 344k BE 12
    Cameron Murray 659k BE 48
    Rhyse Martin 443k

    I need 8 to go to free up space for players coming in.
    Of these Gosiewski isn't urgent, JFH has useful DPP and Murray is a gun if he get's a start.
    So for now lets just keep Murray for arguments sake and he plays 13 so not an urgent sale

    If we break this down, we have the following who are definite urgent tradeouts either this week or next. Mitch Rein, James Maloney, Saliva Havili

    The next lot are making money still or are dead money but may have to go to allow upgrades elsewhere (Also don't play rd 13). Jaydn Su'a, Jeremy Marshall King, Raymond Faitala Mariner, Jack Gosiewski, James Fisher Harris. Of these RFM has potential to be a cut price keeper but his injury and byes don't help now.

    Last there is Rhyse Martin who is scoring well enough to play in my 17 and is still making big money.
    So he is the one that stays (Failing him being dropped or injured)

    So the 8 trade outs have picked themselves, with Martin being the survivor based on future potential.

    As none play the byes then let's use their current price to help calculate the total value = 4,480,000
    So this is what we have to spend on 8 trades


    Last edited by Boozecluez on Mon May 21, 2018 8:35 pm; edited 4 times in total
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Mon May 21, 2018 8:14 pm

    @Welshy wrote:
    I look forward to your trade ins, I'm trying to figure out my origin strategy

    trying not to get too distracted by needing players to fill certain bye rounds, think i'm going to try and rely on the likes of R17 bye players like RFM/Kikau/JFH to elevate in the rounds 14-17 and hope they stay close to the better options like JTurbo/Harris/Crichton/Taupau/Surgess

    Trying to build my team asap and if they happen to not play origin then this is bonus = 1 extra game
    At this stage the timing of the trade outs is that they don't play the bye and the fact they have mostly peaked works out ok = bonus points now.
    Saying that if there are value buys who don't play 13. I will still bring in even now as this is the final team.
    Ie Tohu Harris


    Last edited by Boozecluez on Mon May 21, 2018 8:15 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Welshy
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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Welshy on Mon May 21, 2018 8:15 pm

    @Boozecluez wrote:

    Trying to build my team asap and if they happen to not play origin then this is bonus = 1 extra game
    At this stage the timing of the trade outs is that they don't play the bye and the fact they have mostly peaked works out ok = bonus points now.
    Saying that if there are value buys I will still bring in even if they don't play the 13 bye round and cash outs will be done in rd 13 to give me a few bonus points.
    Ie Tohu Harris

    good thinking, but for us both outside the top 1000 I keep getting attracted to players in bye rounds because a good score will see you rocket up the rankings

    Harris is a prime candidate for me after R13 for probably Murray, Macca not getting an origin shot would also be excellent
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Mon May 21, 2018 8:25 pm

    Buy in  brainstorming. 8 trades = 4,480,000 to spend

    This comes down to 2 things, what I can afford and what I would like

    Best way is to look at this is there are some must have players who are cheap or can go large and the balance will work itself out.
    Will add in players as I work it out

    Tohu Harris 659k, BE 39 (This week is the preference due to his low BE)
    Solid player priced well below his potential, enough said

    Jai Arrow 801k BE 53 (Can potentially wait until RD 14)
    DPP which covers FRF and looks to be over his injury



    *I still need a keeper fullback
    Trbo is a great pick but will probably play origin, RTS is up and down with scoring, Mbye is ultra consistent but priced about right, CWalker relies on big plays but is dropping cash fast with a BE of 60
    Rapana still hasn't hit form but priced cheap too. Tough decision

    *I still need to allow for cover in the FRF/2RF position in case of short term injury.
    Someone at a premium like Taupau, or Surgess(If over his injury) James/TPJ/Kikau/J Papalii all have too much uncertainty with minutes/role long term
    Taupau while costing a premium keeps playing 60 minutes due to the weak Manly pack, is DPP and can go large on his day. His price keeps his ownership down too
    Worst case I could keep JFH and keep him as 18th man, meaning Martin is in my 17 until a time he can be upgraded late.

    *A cash out would be nice if they have long term potential to cover WFB/CTR so paying a little more here could be an option
    (Brimson/Holland/Fonua) Of these Fonua plays 13 but is in and out of team, Holland could be relegated to bench so Brimson is the pick probably here but would have to be this week.
    Given the lack of any real cows with long term potential to hang around then probably Brimson is the go here.


    Last edited by Boozecluez on Thu May 24, 2018 10:13 pm; edited 13 times in total
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Mon May 21, 2018 8:26 pm

    @Welshy wrote:
    good thinking, but for us both outside the top 1000 I keep getting attracted to players in bye rounds because a good score will see you rocket up the rankings

    Harris is a prime candidate for me after R13 for probably Murray, Macca not getting an origin shot would also be excellent

    I have thought about Harris but I don't want to get stuck in round 14 with too many trade in's so may have to go early on a couple.
    Also if it means I get his points this week over someone like Havili then it is worth it too
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    Revraiser

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Revraiser on Tue May 22, 2018 6:54 am

    Alot of detail in here Boozy, good work.
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Thu May 24, 2018 11:38 am

    @Revraiser wrote:Alot of detail in here Boozy, good work.

    Cheers Rev, thinking if I put the work in now I am less likely to get caught out later

    Have had a look through the bargain bin and come up with this shortlist
    Will need to narrow it down further but happy with what players are there


    Updated shortlist Will need to pick 4 of these players. Think JTrbo and Surgess miss out


    Arrow - Almost a must have, DPP works well with Taupau
    Taupau - will splurge and pay top dollar for the DPP, no origin and more game time.
    Smith - No origin and decent value
    Harris - cheap and doesn’t play origin

    McCullough - decent value but probable origin
    JTrbo - priced about right, plays origin
    Brown - Risky due to injury break but a POD
    Johnson Cleary- dropping in price but a POD

    WFB upgrade planned for next couple of weeks
    Mbye - Cheaper than Turbo minus the injury averages more and plays an extra game due to no origin
    TTrbo - Gun and on his day can go large, if no origin will bring him in



    Last edited by Boozecluez on Thu May 24, 2018 2:50 pm; edited 2 times in total
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Thu May 24, 2018 1:07 pm

    So looking at something like this team for rd 14 if I push forward with the trades (7 remaining for injuries)

    Cook
    Taupau Fifita
    Crichton Taumalolo Arrow
    Matterson DCE
    Mitchell Marsters
    Tedesco Ponga Trbo

    Smith Martin Harris Koroisau

    JFH Fonua Gosiewski Doueihi



    Trades look like (Prices may vary up and down here)

    Rein (597k) out / Fonua (353k) in
    Maloney (626k) out / Taupau (877k) in

    Havili (638k) out / Harris (659k) in
    JMK (449k) out / Smith (807k) in
    Sua (506k) out / T Trbo (656k)  in
    RFM (695k) / Doueihi (274k) in

    Murray (659k) out / Arrow (801k) in

    4170k out                    4427k
    + 141k ITB

    116k shortfall but can go a bottom priced cashout next week instead of the Doueihi example and a few buy ins have large BE so should be fine
    Also worst case can trade in a cheaper alternative to TTrbo

    I do like Murray but behind a stacked Rabbitohs pack has a limited role off the bench
    Have decided to keep RFM over McCullough (if he plays origin)
    McCullough is a 5pt upgrade but if plays origin that wipes out the upgrade
    JFH could possibly be 18th man over RFM


    Last edited by Boozecluez on Thu May 24, 2018 3:46 pm; edited 4 times in total

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