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    Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Tue May 01, 2018 8:26 am

    Player shortlist to bring in over next few weeks
    Will add to this once I am happy with players

    Tohu Harris - priced at 721k BE 72
    Pro: Plays 80 min, Runs great lines so can score a try and a solid overall player, POD at 9% ownership, No origin
    Con: Returning from a heavy concussion
    Take away his last game due to injury, he has averaged at 55 points mostly off base stats. If I can buy him at 700k then he is about 7-8 points under priced.
    Will give him this week to see how he goes and look to bring in either next week or the following
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Thu May 03, 2018 6:38 pm

    Round 9 trades 251k remaining

    Jason Taumalolo priced at 822k, predicted 55-60pts
    '
    Back to scoring 60's and while the cowboys are playing poor I can see him trying to make more big plays to lift the team.
    Not much more to say about him, doesn't play origin and a big boom bust player so with a low BE then it makes sense to grab him now as he probably won't get much cheaper



    ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    Esan Marsters priced at 574k, predicted 40-45pts

    Young Kiwi centre who can offload and break the odd tackle, he is having a breakout year in a similar vein to Leilua a few years back.
    He seems a hard worker and well grounded based on the article I have read and has good job security.
    Plays the first bye,low ownership (under 6%) kicking goals (for now) and an enjoyable player to watch which makes him the best of a bad bunch to hopefully be a set and forget CTR keeper
    Looking forward to having him in my team this week



    Last edited by Boozecluez on Fri May 04, 2018 5:05 pm; edited 4 times in total
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Thu May 03, 2018 7:44 pm

    Starting team + and -

    Players underlined are currently in team so prices will change
    Bold prices are either current as of today or was the price they were sold

    Starting salary cap = 9.4mil
    Current value = 13.34mil  +3.94mil

    Cameron Smith 917K  815k -102k
    Jai Arrow 409k 830K +421k
    Matt Lodge 365k 521k +156k
    Bryce Cartwright 325k 378k +53k
    Slade Griffin 382k 589k +207k
    Raymond Faitala Mariner 389k 706k +317
    Brodie Croft 558k 480k -78k
    Daly Cherry Evans 715k 795k +80k
    Latrell Mitchell 556k 615k +59k
    Peta Hiku 283k 459k +176k
    James Tedesco 761k 751k -10k
    Kalyn Ponga 552K 776k +224k
    Sione Katoa 212k 212k 0-
    Damian Cook 503k 874K +371k
    Michael Lichaa 533k 533k 0-
    Pita Godinet 228k 239k +10k
    Siliva Havili 228k 531k +303k
    Sam Williams 298k 335k +37k
    Mark Nicholls 228k 252k +24k
    Viliame Kikau 228k 635k +407k

    Trade in by order

    Matt Dufty 533k 529k -4k
    Robbie Rochow343k 497k +154k
    Tevita Pangai Junior 472k 515k +43k
    Corey Thompson 348k 523k +175k
    Jeremy Marshall King 258k 422k +164k
    Cameron Murray 567k 678k +111k
    James Maloney 378k 608k +230k
    Andrew McCullough 866k 814k -52k
    Jack Gosiewski 264k 344k +80k
    James Fisher Harris 499K 594k +95k
    Mitch Rein 358k 495k +137k
    Ryan Matterson 741k 839k +98k
    Scott Sorensen 294k 355k +61k
    Jaydn Su'a 363k 406k +43k
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Sun May 06, 2018 10:42 pm

    Round 9 results






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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Wed May 09, 2018 4:02 pm

    Looking at what my final team looks like (18 trades remaining including this weeks)

    Keepers
    Cook
    Taumalolo
    Matterson
    DCE
    Mitchell
    Marsters
    Tedesco
    Ponga
    Arrow*

    Borderline keepers
    JFH
    Kikau
    RFM
    Murray

    Cows to be milked 6 Trades
    Maloney (BE 36) - Next week Cleary is back
    JMK (BE 24) Week to Week, poor security as Dogs aren't winning
    Griffin (BE 29) Levi may impact some minutes this week, can hold for a week or 2
    Rein (BE 7) Peats may be back this week so 1 week at most
    Su'a (BE 10) Fine for now, not urgent and can fill in 17 if needed for 40 pts
    Havili (BE 15) Has been scoring well but minutes are a rollercoaster. 2-3 weeks in NPR at most left.

    Failed cows 2 trades though absolute worst case they can stay there to allow me to make 2 trades elsewhere.
    Gosiewski (BE 11) Potentially back in a few weeks, not urgent as could be useful and Manly are low on forwards
    Sorensen (BE 17) Dead cow, time he is back the sharks will be back to full strength so not useful.

    _____________________________________________________________

    So based on urgency of trade outs it goes Cows to be milked with highest BE or low job security
    Then failed cows
    Then remaining cows as they max out or have 'ok' job security

    TLDR:

    9 Keepers + 4 potential gives me 13 players.

    Looks like this currently

    Cook
    JFH Kikau
    Taumalolo RFM Murray/Arrow*
    DCE Matterson
    Mitchell Marsters
    Tedesco Ponga [INSERT WFB]


    So one WFB is needed to fill the last starting spot regardless then 4 reserves from technically any position.
    Have 8 definite trades that have to be made to give me 17 keepers (4 upgrades + 4 downgrades) leaves me with 8 trades to play with
    So if i want to upgrade any other the 'Borderline' keepers, this will come out of the 8 left

    Will work out what $$ this all looks like in the next post and what I can spend on/cash out
    Secondly will need to look at potential trade targets that fit my budget and where i can potentially save $$$
    Lastly look at what a potential Arrow trade out now does to help me over the next few weeks


    Last edited by Boozecluez on Wed May 09, 2018 4:15 pm; edited 4 times in total
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Wed May 09, 2018 4:07 pm

    Calculations (With 188k upgrades spent)

    Maloney 615k (803k)
    Rein 550k (738k)
    Griffin 604k (792k)
    Havili 581k (749k)

    Then assuming max cash out = 212k player (Current price)

    Sorensen 164k (376k)
    Gosiewski 132k (344k)
    JMK* 224k (436k)
    Su'a* 233k  (445k)

    753K to spend on the 4 required upgrades or 188K spread out

    Will need an 18th man too, but worst case this can be the best scoring cow

    _______________________________________________________________________________________

    Now lets looks at players we can target that we may not have to spend all these $$ on = Cut price keepers.
    Prerequisite is they need score on average at least 50 points by years end and have good job/role security
    Any position is fine here, due to the low trades then DPP is bonus here too to cover short term injuries
    POD factor is another bonus, in order to climb ranks then this is going to help.
    Lastly non origin players will also help to maximise the average for remaining games.

    The downside is there are no perfect players, some risk with either injury clouds or role changes or their team team form effecting their scores.
    Going to have to take some risks but that's fantasy
    Basically this is why these players are cheap, we are gambling on them scoring above their price we buy them for and returning to former glory
    Also due to other injuries these players make take on more workload

    WIP Shortlist to look at a few value buys

    Andrew McCullough (BE 71) 771k Would like him to drop in price some more, Wolverine has burnt me once with his quick return from injury I need him to hopefully drop some more to make me feel better haha.
    Jake Friend (BE 48) 564k Still too expensive and hasn't shown any old form where he can bust out a 50+ score. Will keep an eye on him but it's a no for now
    Apisai Koroisau (BE 63) 644k Bit of a form slump due to the way Manly has gone recent. With his price dropping heavily he could be a great pickup in a couple weeks with decent byes and good cover
    Cameron Smith (BE 66) 832k For his price and with origin he is a no for now, might be a luxury bring in after origin..Will see

    Sam Burgess (BE 41) 752k
    Just can't commit to him, the Rabbitohs pack is full of unknown's and minutes so need a week or so to see how it all fits together. Big minutes this week will change everything but with Murray don't want to have them take points off each other. Though
    Andrew Fifita (BE 34) 834k Priced at top dollar now, and with the troops back soon I am unsure if I can afford him without sacrificing elsewhere. Wait and see here but would love the big man just need to look at ways to get him in
    Ryan James (BE 25) 691k Bit of a smokey going under the radar at the moment, great recent form but is this temporary due to injuries and extra responsibility.. Will look even more in depth to see if returning back to a 50pt player

    Simon Mannering (BE 56) 695k Unless he gets his 13 position back with 60mins +, he is a no and will remain a 40-45 point player
    Paul Gallen (BE 67) 671k Still has a high BE, potentially in his last year and with recent injury need to see him get back to decent minutes which I am afraid he may not see again (Due to the youngsters stepping up)
    Jake Trbo (BE 49) 790k A great option but you are paying for what you get, so no real discount. Not a bad option though
    Tohu Harris (BE 63) 677k Mentioned him at the top of the page, just waiting till he bottoms out in the next week or 2 then will be a great pick up
    Angus Crichton (BE 66) 742k Could be an option but at his current price and with a stacked Rabbitohs forward pack just need to see how they balance their team over the next week or 2. Sub 700k and he is worth a gamble
    Also he doesn't seem to get much ball this year, just a feeling like Matterson in the past couple weeks I have but stats back this up too.
    Coen Hess (BE 48) 759k With origin and essentially buying him at full price, will give him a miss . I do like my 80min edge players so another potential but no for now

    Corey Norman (BE 23) 679k He is over performing in an eels team where he is in good recent form = means we are paying a premium for big attacking stats. When he goes missing so does his scores
    Adam Reynolds (BE 20) 661k For his recent injury history he is going alright and has scored well due to the Rabbitohs recent form. Great value with big kicking metres + goals = solid base stats, only a matter of time before he starts running.Good byes too
    Nathan Cleary (BE 77) 821k At the moment he needs to drop some cash to become affordable, more of a luxury at this stage and potentially a swap with Reynolds when the time is right. Can't get them all and I want to see how he goes from his return from injury before I spend 800k.


    Roger Tuavasa Sheck (BE 23) 575k
    Basically similar to below, but while he has the odd big game he can go missing too.Due to his much higher ownership will roll the dice on Jordan instead
    Jordan Rapana (BE 26) 519k Much cheaper than RTS, Raiders improving with Roger a lot more involved. POD at 7.9% ownership and only a matter of time before he has a huge game.


    Last edited by Boozecluez on Wed May 09, 2018 9:20 pm; edited 10 times in total
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    Milchcow
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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Milchcow on Wed May 09, 2018 4:33 pm


    Hey Boozey

    I would just like to condescendingly sneer at your lowly overall score of 7213. What a crap score

    Things are so much better up here with my overall score of 7214.

    Cheers
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Wed May 09, 2018 4:47 pm

    @Milchcow wrote:
    Hey Boozey

    I would just like to condescendingly sneer at your lowly overall score of  7213. What a crap score

    Things are so much better up here with my overall score of 7214.

    Cheers

    Haha we have been shadowing each other for a while now....
    Based on handicap, you will need the 1 point head start this week haha

    The past 2-3  weeks I have probably made a couple false moves but it is hindsight now.
    Fifita has been killing it and still haven’t got him, that one cuts.

    So just outside the top 1000
    Top 500 should be doable with some smart trades Milchy?
    Top 200 if we get lucky Wink
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    Liverpool_Bulldog

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog on Wed May 09, 2018 9:25 pm

    Another great write up Boozey. Will attempt to put something together like this for my team before the first game this week.

    Harris and Macca definitely firming as favourites to join my lads in the coming weeks. The very definition of 50+ players for an absolute bargain.
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Wed May 09, 2018 9:56 pm

    @Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Another great write up Boozey. Will attempt to put something together like this for my team before the first game this week.

    Harris and Macca definitely firming as favourites to join my lads in the coming weeks. The very definition of 50+ players for an absolute bargain.

    Thanks mate
    Been interesting going through everyone and a few I had to cull off that list too.

    You are right there, 100% want both of them

    I am going Maloney to Reynolds this week and stuck on the second trade.
    Think I need to decide what to do with Arrow and the FRF position.. I need a gun there but don't want to pay Fifita/Taupau prices.

    So essentially it's Surgess.
    Need to start Culling my cows too but that big red dot keeps looking at me so will need to sleep on it.


    Will sleep on it but Fifita and Rapana keep tapping me on my shoulder wanting to join in on the fun but still up for one more cash gamble (Martin) as well haha
    A last roll of the dice one could say


    Last edited by Boozecluez on Wed May 09, 2018 10:18 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Welshy
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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Welshy on Wed May 09, 2018 10:10 pm

    @Boozecluez wrote:

    Thanks mate
    Been interesting going through everyone and a few I had to cull off that list too.

    You are right there, 100% want both of them

    I am going Maloney to Reynolds this week and stuck on the second trade.
    Think I need to decide what to do with Arrow and the FRF position.. I need a gun there but don't want to pay Fifita/Taupau prices.

    So essentially it's Surgess.
    Need to start Culling my cows too but that big red dot keeps looking at me so will need to sleep on it.
    Might just trade out Griffin, he has had a good run.

    Will sleep on it but Fifita and Rapana keep tapping me on my shoulder wanting to join in on the fun as well haha
    Reynolds is such a massive risk, especially if trades are getting low mate
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Wed May 09, 2018 10:27 pm

    @Welshy wrote:
    Reynolds is such a massive risk, especially if trades are getting low mate

    See the risk but 4 weeks of good scores potentially (Roosters but then Manly/Knights/Titans) including rd 13 bye means he becomes Cleary (worst case scenario)
    I get what you are saying but he has been fine for 5 weeks, kicking well and sometimes you got to risk it.

    No different that say bringing in Cleary after his injury too

    Appreciate the comment though mate and will sleep on it
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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Welshy on Wed May 09, 2018 10:31 pm

    @Boozecluez wrote:

    See the risk but 4 weeks of good scores potentially (Roosters but then Manly/Knights/Titans) including rd 13 bye means he becomes Cleary (worst case scenario)
    I get what you are saying but he has been fine for 5 weeks, kicking well and sometimes you got to risk it.

    No different that say bringing in Cleary after his injury too

    Appreciate the comment though mate and will sleep on it
    I have ARey and he really is frightening to watch

    5 straight weeks probably means he is due an injury, difference with Cleary was a major one off injury but Arey gets niggles all the time
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Wed May 09, 2018 10:47 pm

    @Welshy wrote:
    I have ARey and he really is frightening to watch

    5 straight weeks probably means he is due an injury, difference with Cleary was a major one off injury but Arey gets niggles all the time

    I trust your judgement and have found a work around to bring Fifita finally in while giving me some cash to bridge the gap (Martin)
    Need to gamble somewhere so will make it on him instead. This is my last roll of the dice cashie and can help cover Rein's spot in the 17 if his role is in jeopardy with an early Peats return

    Will see how this all pans out later on in the season Smile
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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Milchcow on Wed May 09, 2018 10:57 pm

    @Boozecluez wrote:

    Haha we have been shadowing each other for a while now....
    Based on handicap, you will need the 1 point head start this week haha

    The past 2-3  weeks I have probably made a couple false moves but it is hindsight now.
    Fifita has been killing it and still haven’t got him, that one cuts.

    So just outside the top 1000
    Top 500 should be doable with some smart trades Milchy?
    Top 200 if we get lucky Wink

    Goal is always top 100.
    That's probably out of reach, but I'll aim for top 500. Think its possible if I get some luck with injuries and get my trades right.

    Big decision this week is whether I want JTrbo or Taumalolo or not
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Wed May 09, 2018 11:23 pm

    @Milchcow wrote:

    Goal is always top 100.
    That's probably out of reach, but I'll aim for top 500. Think its possible if I get some luck with injuries and get my trades right.

    Big decision this week is whether I want JTrbo or Taumalolo or not

    I prefer Taumalolo for the big game potential but Trbo for consistency.
    Trbo is playing at maximum capacity and you are paying his price for what you get.
    Taumalolo has room for improvement which is what is scary. Given the season is do or die for the cowboys he may get free licence to offload and go crazy. That’s why I got him, scoring 60s doing nothing.
    Same with Fifita and how the sharks have gone, big fan of his so want to have fun this year and enjoy having a shark in my team. Not owning him when he goes big there is nothing worse.

    These players are freaks, Trbo just has a big engine and while a great player can’t flick a switch like the other 2 players above.
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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog on Thu May 10, 2018 4:32 am

    Well that spiel just talked me into Taumalolo.
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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog on Thu May 10, 2018 5:04 am

    Do you mind if I post my team plans here in a similar format to yours to get some feedback from yaself and others??
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    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Boozecluez on Thu May 10, 2018 7:04 am

    @Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Do you mind if I post my team plans here in a similar format to yours to get some feedback from yaself and others??

    Edited: will have a look in the other thread for you when I get to work if you like


    Last edited by Boozecluez on Thu May 10, 2018 7:36 am; edited 1 time in total
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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018

    Post by Welshy on Thu May 10, 2018 7:15 am

    @Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Do you mind if I post my team plans here in a similar format to yours to get some feedback from yaself and others??
    keep yours in the main thread mate, booze spends a lot of time and effort running his standalone thread, let him do his thing here

      Current date/time is Fri May 25, 2018 1:35 am