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    2017 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 32

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    Mighty Fishes
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    2017 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 32

    Post by Mighty Fishes on Sat Apr 15, 2017 10:46 pm

    Spreadsheets
    BE:







    2017 Stats Breakdown (Current up to round 3)
    https://www.mediafire.com/?guprpt6xuiq9dpm

    2016 Stats Breakdown
    https://www.mediafire.com/?t8gqrkac3r1tomk

    2015 Stats Breakdown
    http://www.mediafire.com/file/fkxlw0139cvc529/2015_Prozone_stats.xlsx

    Price Predictor
    http://www.mediafire.com/file/urcieiozcujhuvo/Price_predictor%282%29.xlsx






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    White Lightning

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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 32

    Post by White Lightning on Sat Apr 15, 2017 11:06 pm

    Go the Doggies.
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    Onthebeatpete

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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 32

    Post by Onthebeatpete on Sat Apr 15, 2017 11:08 pm

    Yay!
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    Finch

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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 32

    Post by Finch on Sat Apr 15, 2017 11:08 pm

    Wow.

    Who shut down the thread early?

    Not happy.
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    Pookus McFly

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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 32

    Post by Pookus McFly on Sat Apr 15, 2017 11:09 pm

    I think the bias toward attacking stats are necessary to keep the backs relevant in the game. TBs are a bit OP and falling over the line with a few defenders allows the tryscorer (usually a back) to rack up the odd huge score (or consistently for guns), whereas they would all be made irrelevant with a better balance. Then we may as well be playing Supercoach
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    Milchcow
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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 32

    Post by Milchcow on Sat Apr 15, 2017 11:18 pm


    Man the problem with this thread sometimes is that you spend 20 minutes typing up a details reply, and by the time you hit send the post you are replying to his 3 pages back and, some trigger happy mod has locked the thread. And there have been 3 other replies saying basically what you wanted to say but typed quicker and pit more succinctly
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    Onthebeatpete

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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 32

    Post by Onthebeatpete on Sat Apr 15, 2017 11:19 pm

    I hope Ponga gets a good update...
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    Milchcow
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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 32

    Post by Milchcow on Sat Apr 15, 2017 11:20 pm


    For clarity, it should be noted that its Prozone, not Champion, who are the official NRL stats guys, and give stats for Fantasy and Sportsdeck.

    Fanhub Favourites has nice alliteration though
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    surmo13

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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 32

    Post by surmo13 on Sat Apr 15, 2017 11:25 pm

    @Milchcow wrote:
    For clarity, it should be noted that its Prozone, not Champion, who are the official NRL stats guys, and give stats for Fantasy and Sportsdeck.

    Fanhub Favourites has nice alliteration though

    You sure? I know Prozone used to have it, but I could swear Champion has had the rights at least as of some point fairly recently, unless they gave it back, i remember the league journalists getting outraged at NRL signing up with an AFL-owned company.
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    SI
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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 32

    Post by SI on Sat Apr 15, 2017 11:25 pm

    I don't see the TB phenomenon personally. I actually thought there were less in the first couple of rounds. What did those stats you did show Milchy? Was it an extra 200 thus far to last round? That was on 2000 or something? So a 10% difference.
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    Milchcow
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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 32

    Post by Milchcow on Sat Apr 15, 2017 11:29 pm

    @Pookus McFly wrote:I think the bias toward attacking stats are necessary to keep the backs relevant in the game. TBs are a bit OP and falling over the line with a few defenders allows the tryscorer (usually a back) to rack up the odd huge score (or consistently for guns), whereas they would all be made irrelevant with a better balance. Then we may as well be playing Supercoach

    I concur. 2 point TBs would make the Tedesco/Dugan palm-off less overpowered. But it would also rob the top backs of their fantasy scoring potential and we'd be back to something like Sione and Aubusson as the only viable centre pairing, and I don't think they really want that.


    In hypothetical Cow-land fantasy there would be a complete revamp of the scoring system. I'd knock tackles down to 1/2 a point each. People complain about TBs being overpowered (and they are) but getting a point per flop boosts the scores of a bunch of guys for not doing much valuable. Maybe a bonus point for a 1on1 tackle. You could then drop the value of a bunch of other stats too.

    Scoring in general would be lower, but I like that, as it lessens the impact if you have a 2nd minute injury to a star player.

    Combined with ranked subs instead of an AE, it would help lessen the pain of late withdrawals and injuries, and make bad luck less of a factor.


    It would of course be a massive change to the game, so I don't see it happening anytime soon, but that's just my views.
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    Milchcow
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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 32

    Post by Milchcow on Sat Apr 15, 2017 11:38 pm

    @surmo13 wrote:

    You sure? I know Prozone used to have it, but I could swear Champion has had the rights at least as of some point fairly recently, unless they gave it back, i remember the league journalists getting outraged at NRL signing up with an AFL-owned company.

    Champion had it in 2014 (taking over from nrlstats)

    But Prozone have had it since 2015.

    I believe the companies are/were related - or have some shared infrastructure or something.

    But certainly now if you go to http://mc.championdata.com/nrl/ the stats there do not match up with those on the nrl site
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    Onthebeatpete

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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 32

    Post by Onthebeatpete on Sat Apr 15, 2017 11:39 pm

    Cowboys vs dragons updates

    Ponga 43 :-)
    Feldt 46
    GGM 33
    Morgan 48
    Asiata 50
    Leary 22
    Hess 42
    Tolo 55
    Hampton 19
    Lowe 28

    Aitken 33
    Lafai 76
    Mcinnes 44
    Vaughan 40
    Debelin 60
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    Onthebeatpete

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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 32

    Post by Onthebeatpete on Sat Apr 15, 2017 11:46 pm

    So looks like I'm up to 626 points including updates with Tedesco, Idris, Norman, Fifita, Gallen and Harawira Naera to play. Hopefully I can stay in touch........
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    WT Winfield

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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 32

    Post by WT Winfield on Sat Apr 15, 2017 11:46 pm

    Sometimes we just have to say fuck it and not let the bullshit scoring bother us outside of the "fuck off that's not a tacklebreak" in the moment.

    Are there even any prizes outside of coming 1st? Top 10 maybe?

    As much time and research and educated guesses that we make, it's going to take a lot of luck to finish near the top. The amount of times you're 50/50 on two players and you choose the "wrong" one over a 3-4 week period where the other outscores you by 5-10 points, only for him to get injured and suddenly you feel good about making the right choice.

    To think that there isn't any funny business going on with scoring is probably a bit naive though. Any time money and competition is involved, that door is open. I dunno what the prizes for the general public even are, but there would be leagues out there with bigger money on the line I would imagine.

    Some people's greed and ego has no boundaries and we have plenty of examples of people jeopardising their position and integrity for a quick buck.

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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 32

    Post by Guest on Sat Apr 15, 2017 11:50 pm

    I had a big write up but the thread died haha.

    Long story short I have watched all the games this year and simply giving my thoughts on what i feel is scored differently to perhaps what i watched.

    The counter balance to the tackle break is the missed tackle and this also effect scoring too.
    It seems like there are a heap more this year as well but again this may be proved incorrect with stats.

    Perhaps this is more concentrated with certain players than across the broad.
    I don't remember in all my years for example watching Elijah Taylor missing close to 10 tackles and sure didnt look like it watching him play last week.
    Same with Rapana making all those tackle breaks, great to watch but it didn't look like 50 points worth in roughly that alone.

    Just giving my thoughts and would like to think my track record over the years backs me up a bit here too.
    Perhaps in 3 months we look back to this and laugh, but at least having a discussion on it might change some of our way of thinking. 

    Perhaps it doesn't, but like my thread it is easy to make a call for everyone to see week in week out and back it up, than say nothing and brag about it later when you are right.
    It's easy to hide your failures with the latter but I don't get that luxury haha

    Anyways sitting alright, the byes will be fun and where I will make more inroads

    Guest
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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 32

    Post by Guest on Sun Apr 16, 2017 12:07 am

    To be honest it's probably more about pride (ie finishing consistently top few hundred every year) or proving that what you say/advice you give to others can be backed up.

    Though other than winning a 200 voucher last year (won the sharks league) I make far more money playing real money fantasy or on betting. (Though not in the high roller leagues like a few on here, looking at you Shannon)

    But playing fantasy to me is more social and enjoyable and gives me something to make me watch games I may have no other interest in.
    And something to sink huge hours thinking about when I should probably invest this effort into something more productive haha

    But I also get to see crazy gifs sometimes on here and learn about how strangers lost their virginity haha.
    So it has its perks, all good

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    Guest

    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 32

    Post by Guest on Sun Apr 16, 2017 12:10 am

    Anyways enough of the TLDR, will cut it short from now on or stick to my little corner
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    Milchcow
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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 32

    Post by Milchcow on Sun Apr 16, 2017 12:15 am

    BTW, with all this stats talk, I forgot to mention that Sydney FC tonight confirmed themselves as statistically the best team in A-League history.
    Fantasy can take a back seat for a little while as we bask in their glory

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    Spectre

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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 32

    Post by Spectre on Sun Apr 16, 2017 12:16 am

    Not picking up Ponga nor Hess has been a real kick in the nuts

      Current date/time is Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:19 pm