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    2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 1

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    Warriors

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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 1

    Post by Warriors on Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:45 am

    @my tv broke wrote:alright, so 2016, the teams that shot to front (eg top 50ish) after 4 or 5 rounds. was there a clear strategy or commonality amongst those sides? were they stacked with guns + cashies that went well, filled with wildcards (eg wingers that kept scoring tries), etc?

    I have deadset never had a good start to the year. always trying to make up ground. i need to change things up this year.

    I will just share a few strategies I had last year, ended up 24th overall after being about 10,000th after week 1.

    I went with the guns and cash cows approach. I tried to pick 1 gun in each position, that would end up in the top echelon for their position e.g. for a hooker, a top two hooker end of year. 2nd rower - top 6 end of year etc

    These were

    Smith - held all year
    Woods - flop
    Merrin and JDB - held all year
    DCE - traded when injured
    Croker - held all year
    Tedesco - held all year

    Early trades were to get LAM and K Evans out and J Trobjevic (for round 2) and E Whitehead in (for round 3). When Gallen went down I got Fifita, when Slater went down I got Munster.

    So my rule was only trade in who I thought was going to be keepers. Also don't be stubborn with midrangers that haven't worked out.

    Players I didn't start with that I missed not having - Jake Friend, James Graham, Sam Mataora, Pat Matau'tia and H Hunt. The thing to remember is you can't have everyone and don't ruin your team just to get 1 player in.

    This year the cap is more restricting I feel. We also don't have a Parcel/Garvey type unless Cameron King does better than expected and/or Segy comes back.

    Also 1 other thing I have picked up is that new or underpriced/returning 80 minute second rowers are where the money is. E.g T Harris in 2015 (that year I went with Finucane instead!!!), Rochow, Carter and Turner early last year, Cartwright and Whitehead all year. Also who will be this years Jake Trobjevic. I have my eye on players like J Wallace, Vaughan and McGuire.

    Also after watching a few games of BJ Leilua last year I got him in early (maybe round 4 or 5) and together with Croker went a long way to why I did so well. I also started with Cody Walker along with the obvious cash cows in Hastings and Ash Taylor. Advice would be to go with your gut and not the crowd.



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    my tv broke

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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 1

    Post by my tv broke on Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:51 am

    moylan is a bit like Slater (pre injuries/etc) in terms of fantasy scoring.
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    Warriors

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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 1

    Post by Warriors on Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:56 am

    @White Lightning wrote:I know not many on here really consider Moylan but I am. Apparently he has been doing extra training over Xmas to increase his explosiveness plus the Panthers have nice opening games where Moylan has the potential to score well. The only negative is origin but 2017 might be a breakout season for him & he could become more consistent.

    Did finish the year very well and could be this years Teddy to start the year if he can jag a few tries early. Base stats are lower but could be worth the punt, on par with Tom Turbo maybe and Val Holmes/Jack Bird.
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    Milchcow
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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 1

    Post by Milchcow on Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:18 pm


    More than one person has referred to Fifita as a slow starter.

    What do you mean by that?

    After 5 rounds last year he had 284 points. Only 4 players had scored more (James Tedesco, Jake Friend, Cameron Smith, Ethan Lowe)

    He dropped a bit of cash due to a 45 in round 2 (his 2nd lowest score of the year) but its hardly indicative of being a slow starter.

    In 2015 he was ranked 17th in total scoring after 5 rounds. Interestingly his 2nd lowest score for the year was in round 2.

    In 2014 he missed rounds 2 and 3, but after round 5 had the 3rd best average.


    So I guess there is a pattern here. Do not captain Fifita in round 2. Past 2 years its been his 2nd lowest score, and the year before that hge didn't play.
    (as sarcasm is not always evident over the internet - I do not believe there is something special about round 2 of the NRL season that causes Fifita to score poorly)
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    Milchcow
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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 1

    Post by Milchcow on Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:21 pm


    I think Slater is a bit like Halatau and Aubusson.

    His low price will sit there tempting everyone for all pre-season, but then the week before the season starts everyone will panic trade him out and just a few suckers/lucky ones will be left with him.

    There is just so much upside to him if he does play that its very hard to resist.
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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 1

    Post by Milchcow on Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:43 pm

    OK, so to answer my own curiosity these players are the best starters over the past 3 years.

    I've worked this out by comparing their average for the first 5 games compared to the average for the whole season, and then seeing who has had the best starts (compared to their own season average) over 2014, 2015 and 2016

    Rory Kostjasyn
    Aidan Sezer
    Apisai Koroisau
    Nate Myles
    Nathan Peats
    Tyson Frizell
    Jack Stockwell
    Manu Ma'u
    Jeremy Latimore
    Darcy Lussick
    Isaac Liu
    Martin Taupau
    Sam Williams
    Suaia Matagi
    Peta Hiku
    Trent Hodkinson
    Jamie Soward
    Jason Nightingale
    Beau Scott
    Semi Radradra


    Only players who played in all 3 seasons will appear.

    Some of the players have had at least 1 season where their first 5 average was actually lower than their season average for one of the 3 years I did stats for. But make the list as their starts in the other seasons were good enough to compensate

    A complete list of players who have averaged more in their furst 5 rounds compared to their season average every year for the past 3 years is as follows
    Rory Kostjasyn
    Apisai Koroisau
    Nate Myles
    Jack Stockwell
    Manu Ma'u
    Jeremy Latimore
    Martin Taupau
    Sam Williams
    Peta Hiku
    Beau Scott
    Michael Jennings
    Dunamis Lui

    Some of those might be in the list solely for only playing 1 or 2 games and fluking a big score at the start of the year.

    Personally I wouldn't read anything into this. But just keep in mind when somebody says that "Player A starts the season well", they are probably wrong.
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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 1

    Post by my tv broke on Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:46 pm

    anyone considering Taupau this year?

    havent really thought about him myself.
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    Milchcow
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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 1

    Post by Milchcow on Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:53 pm


    Conversely, here is a list of players that, for each of the last 3 years, have started slower than they've finished

    Some very big names in this list, for those who want to avoid 'slow starters'

    Jamie Buhrer
    Dale Copley
    Daniel Tupou
    Josh Dugan
    Ava Seumanufagai
    Anthony Don
    Michael Morgan
    Tyrone Peachey
    Wade Graham
    Josh Jackson
    Kyle Feldt
    Josh Hoffman
    Kevin Proctor
    Adam Blair
    Chris Heighington
    Bodene Thompson
    Luke Brooks
    Jarrod Croker
    Jesse Bromwich
    Ben Hunt
    Johnathan Thurston
    Chris Lawrence
    Ricky Leutele
    Tony Williams
    Issac Luke


    Random stat, in terms of slow starts, nothing can beat Jake Mamo in 2016.

    His average for the first 5 rounds was -6 (that is negative six) but he managed a season average of 22.4 That is a slow start that is hard to beat.


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    White Lightning

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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 1

    Post by White Lightning on Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:59 pm

    @my tv broke wrote:anyone considering Taupau this year?

    havent really thought about him myself.

    He lacks consistency for me & I'd also want him to play lock but J-Trbo has that position.
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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 1

    Post by Warriors on Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:00 pm

    @Milchcow wrote:
    Conversely, here is a list of players that, for each of the last 3 years, have started slower than they've finished

    Some very big names in this list, for those who want to avoid 'slow starters'

    Jamie Buhrer
    Dale Copley
    Daniel Tupou
    Josh Dugan
    Ava Seumanufagai
    Anthony Don
    Michael Morgan
    Tyrone Peachey
    Wade Graham
    Josh Jackson
    Kyle Feldt
    Josh Hoffman
    Kevin Proctor
    Adam Blair
    Chris Heighington
    Bodene Thompson
    Luke Brooks
    Jarrod Croker
    Jesse Bromwich
    Ben Hunt
    Johnathan Thurston
    Chris Lawrence
    Ricky Leutele
    Tony Williams
    Issac Luke


    Random stat, in terms of slow starts, nothing can beat Jake Mamo in 2016.

    His average for the first 5 rounds was -6 (that is negative six) but he managed a season average of 22.4 That is a slow start that is hard to beat.



    I can confidently say I won't be starting with any of these players. Will look to pick up Croker if he drops considerably and will probably pick up Bromwich Round 13. The rest I will probably bypass although B Thompson is tempting. Probably prefer Tohu Harris though.
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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 1

    Post by Warriors on Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:02 pm

    @my tv broke wrote:anyone considering Taupau this year?

    havent really thought about him myself.

    I think he could start very well again this year like last year but be prepared for the inconsistent scores.
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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 1

    Post by Milchcow on Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:03 pm

    @White Lightning wrote:

    He lacks consistency for me & I'd also want him to play lock but J-Trbo has that position.

    His average is actually much better as an edge backrower (more opportunity for tacklebusts) but gosh-darn his inconsistency drives you nuts. Under 40 or over 60, with very little in between.
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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 1

    Post by White Lightning on Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:05 pm

    Just read on a Panthers forum that Hook said TMM will probably start in the in the halves with Cleary but he hasn't ruled out Cartwright starting there.
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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 1

    Post by Warriors on Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:11 pm

    @Milchcow wrote:OK, so to answer my own curiosity these players are the best starters over the past 3 years.

    I've worked this out by comparing their average for the first 5 games compared to the average for the whole season, and then seeing who has had the best starts (compared to their own season average) over 2014, 2015 and 2016

    Rory Kostjasyn
    Aidan Sezer
    Apisai Koroisau
    Nate Myles
    Nathan Peats
    Tyson Frizell
    Jack Stockwell
    Manu Ma'u
    Jeremy Latimore
    Darcy Lussick
    Isaac Liu
    Martin Taupau
    Sam Williams
    Suaia Matagi
    Peta Hiku
    Trent Hodkinson
    Jamie Soward
    Jason Nightingale
    Beau Scott
    Semi Radradra


    Only players who played in all 3 seasons will appear.

    Some of the players have had at least 1 season where their first 5 average was actually lower than their season average for one of the 3 years I did stats for. But make the list as their starts in the other seasons were good enough to compensate

    A complete list of players who have averaged more in their furst 5 rounds compared to their season average every year for the past 3 years is as follows
    Rory Kostjasyn
    Apisai Koroisau
    Nate Myles
    Jack Stockwell
    Manu Ma'u
    Jeremy Latimore
    Martin Taupau
    Sam Williams
    Peta Hiku
    Beau Scott
    Michael Jennings
    Dunamis Lui

    Some of those might be in the list solely for only playing 1 or 2 games and fluking a big score at the start of the year.

    Personally I wouldn't read anything into this. But just keep in mind when somebody says that "Player A starts the season well", they are probably wrong.

    Manu Mau and Martin Taupau come to mind from last year as having fast starts, both reverted to near previous averages by year end. I feel its hard to pick Smith, Surgess and Fifita in the same team and the first two win out.
    Smith was 7 points better than the next best hooker in Friend, Surgess should improve and has great byes, and Fifita wasn't as far ahead of Ryan James/Graham/Gallen/JDB/ as Smith was from J Friend. Probably also comes down to more places on offer in the frf than just the two at hooker.


    Last edited by Warriors on Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:25 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    my tv broke

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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 1

    Post by my tv broke on Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:14 pm

    @Milchcow wrote:

    His average is actually much better as an edge backrower (more opportunity for tacklebusts) but gosh-darn his inconsistency drives you nuts.  Under 40 or over 60, with very little in between.

    i remember watching him last year, so many decoys on the edge. "PASS HIM THE BALL". will he be partnered with Green this year? i cant picture what side of the field either of them will play.
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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 1

    Post by Milchcow on Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:20 pm


    Taupau was heavily owned here last year I believe. I was one of many frustrated by his constant use as a dummy runner, he copped it an awful lot on this forum

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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 1

    Post by Warriors on Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:24 pm

    @my tv broke wrote:

    i remember watching him last year, so many decoys on the edge. "PASS HIM THE BALL". will he be partnered with Green this year? i cant picture what side of the field either of them will play.

    Both left, might be a bit like Green and Tohu Harris combination last year. although manly could have the halves roam both sides so DCE can play off the cuff more
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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 1

    Post by White Lightning on Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:01 pm

    Interesting stat courtesy of sc addicts = Dugan has provided 3 try assists in the last 2 seasons. 1 ta in 2015, 2ta 2016. I think they said the Dragons score an average of just over 2 tries a game. Even though Dugan gives 100% he isn't a link player like the best f/b's. When your halves struggle & your f/b doesn't/can't pass the ball your team will struggle in attack. It's quite obvious the Dragon's need to inject some exciting youth into the side to add some x factor on attack. Hopefully McGregor agrees & will help out us fantasy players by giving Nona & Duffy a start in round 1. Based on how conservative & boring he is this won't happen.
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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 1

    Post by White Lightning on Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:08 pm

    Matulino knee surgery & won't start 2017.
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    Re: 2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 1

    Post by Honey Badger on Wed Jan 11, 2017 4:58 pm

    Wasnt slater a bit like foran in terms of fantasy scoring

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